NBA 2025-26 NBA Thread

[Mugen]

Man, Reed Sheppard was horrible tonight. Cason had him in hell.

 

[Itzsoweezee]

Reed Shepard trying to play defense is quite the sight. I understand now why he didn’t get any playing time last year.

 

[scott]

Spoiler: Oh Ajay where art thou....

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PS: I know I wasn't the only one who liked Ajay, scott I remember clearly also liked him, there may be others.

I don't claim to be a second round guru or anything... but you and I were definitely on top of Ajay early

 

[Ariel]

I don't claim to be a second round guru or anything... but you and I were definitely on top of Ajay early

As bad as I was in the 2022 draft (was ok with Sochan, Branham and Wesley, though I did like others like Dyson Daniels and Tari Eason), I was much better in 2024 (had Castle, Risacher and Buzelis as my top 3 options at pick #4, was lower on Sheppard than most, liked McCain as a trade down candidate, liked Ajay Mitchell in the 2nd round, etc). Not bad for an armchair scout going by a few games and youtube clips

 

[scott]

Yeah, likewise I feel like 2024 was a class judged pretty accurately. Liked Castle, liked Matas, did not like Sheppard or Sarr. Didn't like Topic either, but we'll see about him. I did like Holland though, so we'll see if that pans out. Aside from Ajay in Rd 2 I did like Tyler Smith, who just got cut by MIL, and so I certainly wasn't perfect with the old crystal ball.

 

[KobesAchilles]

Man I was wrong about Sheppard. Thought the kid could get his shot off at an efficient clip in the NBA. Nope.

Also that Jabari Smith jr contract is going to look horrible by years end

 

[bozhemoi]

Reed is just too small and slow. It's compounded by poor handles and no real point guard skills. He has excellent hands but no ability to stay in front of players. He could be a TJ McConnell type if he was crafty but he's not. I do think his handles have improved but there's just a limit to what he can do.

 

[DAF86]

It's just one game. But yeah, they've been overrated, may not be able to replicate last year's success (at least it terms of seed).

Yeah, I obviously don't think their season is over because of one game. I don't think they win as many games as last season.

 

[Quentin_Compson]

Lakers really don't look good. As a basketball fan, it's quite infuriating how incredibly soft Ayton plays.

 

[KobesAchilles]

Lakers really don't look good. As a basketball fan, it's quite infuriating how incredibly soft Ayton plays.

I’m pretty sure every team he has played on has said he doesn’t really care about basketball. There’s no reason for him to be this bad a player other than the fact that he got paid his millions and just checked out.

 

[brazil]

West is going to be a bloodbath tbh... Dat Rockets team is fucking scary.. Sengun is on the Euro wave and looks like a mvp

 

[Ariel]

I’m pretty sure every team he has played on has said he doesn’t really care about basketball. There’s no reason for him to be this bad a player other than the fact that he got paid his millions and just checked out.

To be fair, he was always upfront about what he cares:

Ayton's simple goal: Getting second NBA contract

The forecasts seemingly all project Deandre Ayton to develop into an NBA star. "Definitely getting to my second contract -- that's my success," Ayton told reporters Wednesday during a media availability session in New York. The Phoenix Suns own the No. 1 overall pick and are expected to use it...

sports.yahoo.com

The forecasts seemingly all project Deandre Ayton to develop into an NBA star.

But the 7-foot-1 center who could go No. 1 overall in Thursday's draft isn't getting too far ahead of himself.

His definition of NBA success is not having his rookie contract be his last.

"Definitely getting to my second contract -- that's my success," Ayton told reporters Wednesday during a media availability session in New York.

 

[spurraider21]

Just your reminder that when the Spurs picked Nunez in the 24 draft 2nd round, Ajay Mitchell and Jaylen Wells were both available still

and it was one pick after we traded the Furphy pick. also dealt away #33 pick in 2023 only to take Cissoko who wasn't 2-way ineligible later in the round

tre jones was a resounding success as a second round pick in 2020, but prior to that, our last good second rounder was DeJuan Blair in 2009

lately its just felt like MATFO dont treat second rounders as a legitimate path to improve the team

 

[Ariel]

and it was one pick after we traded the Furphy pick. also dealt away #33 pick in 2023 only to take Cissoko who wasn't 2-way ineligible later in the round

tre jones was a resounding success as a second round pick in 2020, but prior to that, our last good second rounder was DeJuan Blair in 2009

lately its just felt like MATFO dont treat second rounders as a legitimate path to improve the team

Resounding success for Tre sounds like a stretch, yes he was better than you'd expect out of a player drafted at his position, but also you can get players like that in free agency or by trading a pick like the one used on him, so I'd reserve that tag for players you need real assets to get. I haven't taken the time to do this research, but I'd say this side of Manu Spurs may be among the worst 2nd round drafting teams in the league by quite a bit.

 

[thiste]

People often say that preseason doesn't mean anything, and I don't entirely disagree with the statement. Just to be sure however, and after our very satisfying 5-0 record, I thought I would check what happened to teams of previous years who ended up with a perfect record during the preseason.
I was able to find records back to the 2004-05 season, so we got a 20 years sample size.

During that time, 14 teams had a 5-0 or better record (up to 8-0):
- Only 2/14 eventually missed the playoffs (both of whom had a 8-0 record surprisingly)
- 6/14 got eliminated in the 1st round
- 3/14 got eliminated in the Conference Semifinals
- 2/14 got eliminated in the Conference Finals
- 1/14 won the NBA Title (2022 Warriors)

=> That's an 85.7% chance to make the Playoffs.

Now If I widen the search to teams who had a 3-0 record or better (27 teams):
- 5/27 missed the playoffs
- 10/27 got eliminated in the 1st round
- 5/27 got eliminated in the Conference Semifinals
- 5/27 got eliminated in the Conference Finals
- 2/27 won the NBA Title

=> Still an 81.5% chance to make the Playoffs.

By the way, the last time the Spurs had a perfect record in the preseason (3-0 in 2005) we won the NBA Title!

To conclude, that's not a huge enough sample to be very reliable (doesn't take into account season injuries & stuff) but it still doesn't seem to be completely irrelevant. Here's the full breakdown below:

SEASON​	TEAM​	PRESEASON​	SEASON RECORD​	PLAYOFFS FATE​
2019-20​	Pelicans​	8-0​	30-42 (W13)​	Missed Playoffs​
2013-14​	Bulls​	8-0​	48-34 (E3)​	Eastern 1st Round​
2010-11​	Jazz​	8-0​	39-43 (W11)​	Missed Playoffs​
2010-11​	Grizzlies​	8-0​	46-36 (W7)​	Western Semifinals​
2009-10​	Magic​	8-0​	59-23 (E2)​	Eastern Finals​
2010-11​	Magic​	7-0​	52-30 (E4)​	Eastern 1st Round​
2008-09​	Hornets​	7-0​	49-33 (W7)​	Western 1st Round​
2024-25​	Warriors​	6-0​	48-34 (W7)​	Western Semifinals​
2023-24​	Timberwolves​	5-0​	56-26 (W3)​	Western Finals​
2021-22​	Warriors​	5-0​	53-29 (W3)​	NBA Champions​
2018-19​	Jazz​	5-0​	50-32 (W5)​	Western 1st Round​
2018-19​	Clippers​	5-0​	48-34 (W8)​	Western 1st Round​
2017-18​	Jazz​	5-0​	48-34 (W5)​	Western Semifinals​
2004-05​	Nuggets​	5-0​	49-33 (W7)​	Western 1st Round​
2023-24​	Raptors​	4-0​	25-57 (E12)​	Missed Playoffs​
2022-23​	76ers​	4-0​	54-28 (E3)​	Eastern Semifinals​
2022-23​	Kings​	4-0​	48-34 (W3)​	Western 1st Round​
2021-22​	Bulls​	4-0​	46-36 (E6)​	Eastern 1st Round​
2021-22​	Mavericks​	4-0​	52-30 (W4)​	Western Finals​
2021-22​	Knicks​	4-0​	37-45 (E11)​	Missed Playoffs​
2021-22​	Kings​	4-0​	30-52 (W12)​	Missed Playoffs​
2020-21​	Lakers​	4-0​	42-30 (W7)​	Western 1st Round​
2017-18​	Celtics​	4-0​	55-27 (E2)​	Eastern Finals​
2020-21​	Jazz​	3-0​	52-20 (W1)​	Western Semifinals​
2020-21​	Grizzlies​	3-0​	38-34 (W9)​	Western 1st Round​
2004-05​	Suns​	3-0​	32-20 (W1)​	Western Finals​
2004-05​	Spurs​	3-0​	59-23 (W2)​	NBA Champions​

 

[spurraider21]

Resounding success for Tre sounds like a stretch, yes he was better than you'd expect out of a player drafted at his position, but also you can get players like that in free agency or trading for a pick like the one you used on him, so I'd reserve that tag for players you need real assets to get. I haven't taken the time to do this, but I'd say this side of Manu Spurs may be among the worst 2nd round drafting teams in the league by quite a bit.

i mean of course there are Jokic/Manu ridiculous 2nd round outcomes, but nah, a SRP becoming an actual rotation player by year 2, signing a second contract with the team, and starting in nearly half of his games here, thats a very successful outcome for a SRP. most of them hang around for 1-2 years then vanish. Wieskamp, Cissoko, Ingram, Quindarry, Metu, Blossomgame, Lalanne, etc

i guess there are levels to it, guys like Nembhard clearly better outcomes than Tre, so maybe "resounding success" should be saved for guys like that. buy anywhere outside the lottery, Tre's outcome would be considered solid to good. for a mid-second rounder though, he outdid any expectations imo

 

[Kick-Stand]

It was honestly really annoying that during this draft cycle i found myself agreeing with rascal quite a bit

rascal has been on point on the draft for years. He wanted Castle badly back when Topic and Cody Williams were looking like top 3 picks in late 2023 for example.

 

[Ariel]

i mean of course there are Jokic/Manu ridiculous 2nd round outcomes, but nah, a SRP becoming an actual rotation player by year 2, signing a second contract with the team, and starting in nearly half of his games here, thats a very successful outcome for a SRP. most of them hang around for 1-2 years then vanish. Wieskamp, Cissoko, Ingram, Quindarry, Metu, Blossomgame, Lalanne, etc

That's only one way of using that pick, the others would be trading it for a vet or just roll it over. If you think trading a similar pick for a player who'd give you similar production for a few years is a resounding success, then yes you can say that. I think that's a bit of a stretch, and you're going to see a few 2nd rounders better (or more valuable) than Tre in just about every class. And I don't mean Jokic, Manu, Brunson, Middleton, Draymond Green, etc. Plenty of role players on championship teams were 2nd rounders or undrafted, all way better than Tre, just look at OKC's roster... If Tre is a resounding success, you'll run out of words to describe those.

 

[Ariel]

rascal has been on point on the draft for years. He wanted Castle badly back when Topic and Cody Williams were looking like top 3 picks in late 2023 for example.

Yeah, he was in way earlier than I was, most of us came around after the NCAA tournament and the combine where he measured like a wing, up to that point I probably would have gone Risacher or Buzelis at 4 (whoever was available) and lots of people wanted Sheppard there.

 

[rjv]

rascal has been on point on the draft for years. He wanted Castle badly back when Topic and Cody Williams were looking like top 3 picks in late 2023 for example.

anyone pushing for cody williams with the 3rd pick clearly wasn't watching him play.

 

[rjv]

btw, sheppard was getting cooked on the defensive side of the ball; he's gonna get devoured by bigger guards.

 

[Ariel]

btw, sheppard was getting cooked on the defensive side of the ball; he's gonna get devoured by bigger guards.

Sheppard's defense was always overrated, he's smart with good hands and gambles a lot, so he'll rack up counting stats, but got cooked routinely in college as well, also had trouble creating space and getting his shot off, and I got dumped on for doubting how he'd translate and saying that it looked like he was optimizing for counting stats.

 

[O_V]

btw, sheppard was getting cooked on the defensive side of the ball; he's gonna get devoured by bigger guards.

I think we should judge every young player's career by his first game in the rotation. Definitely crow about how right our predictions were when confirmed by a single game against the defending NBA champs.

 

[spurraider21]

btw, sheppard was getting cooked on the defensive side of the ball; he's gonna get devoured by bigger guards.

this is true, though OKC in particular is a brutal matchup for him

 

[ace3g]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1981068206275228152