It’s second picks overall. They just crater,for the most part.
Care to back that up with cumulative evidence (ie "overall") or just have anecdotes ("for the most part")?
https://www.hoopshype.com/story/spo...-you-to-land-a-star-at-each-pick/82813921007/
Btw those anecdotes drag these cumulatives #s down. "For the most part" absolute consensus in 2003 was for Melo to go #2, its not the avg #2s fault Larry Brown went nuts drafting Darko, or that Len Bias OD'd, or that Jay Williams got in an accident. I'm too young for Bias, but reports are likely All-NBA guy especially playing next to multiple HOFers. I remember Jay Williams, he had a much better shot to be an All-NBA guy compared to the avg #2. Neither "cratered", one died and one got in a horrible accident. The #2 pick does not "crater, for the most part". Larry Brown was the only person in the league taking Darko over Melo. The only one. That drags #2 and lifts #3, and #2 still comes out ahead.
Odds for MVP, NBA1, All-NBA, AS, All-D by draft position through June 2024
#1- 14.67%, 24%, 38.67%, 65.33%, 21.33%
#2- 6.67%, 18.67%, 28%, 42.67%, 13.33%
#3- 4%, 17.33%, 26.67%, 45.33%, 12%
#4- 3.95%, 5.26%, 14.47%, 34.21%, 9.21%
#5- 2.63%, 10.53%, 22.37%, 35.53%, 11.84%
#6- 1.3%, 3.90%, 6.49%, 19.48%, 6.49%
#7- 1.41%, 5.63%, 9.86%, 16.90%, 7.04%
Looks like normal variation and variance to me, especially since there's rarely a big gap b/t #2 and #3. #4 & #6 are the underperformers or #5 just overperforms, but all still within expected variance. Draft is a crap shoot, #2 holds up as expected even with the worst luck of those spots.