Analysis Spurs rotations and depth chart

[scott]

Las Palapas? it's a solid restaurant but not one I would expect to be a selling point for a millionaire athlete

I left San Antonio in 2019.

I'll tell you that Las Palapas (hell, even Taco Cabana) would be the best Mexican restaurant in MA (where I moved to in 2019) or HI (where I live now) and it's not even close. And to have 24-hour drive thru access to these things is truly something you should not take for granted.

I will NEVER move back to Texas, but I will give credit where it's due... San Antonio has drive thru Mexican and BBQ that is better than any options for those cuisines in most other states.

 

[heyheymymy]

literally ate at las palapas like one time in my decade of living in SA

 

[Arguendo]

Some great stats and context, @Arguendo. I was surprised at well Sochan compares to OG on those 3-10ft and 10-16ft shots, so I went and looked it up for myself. These are last season's stats

I added in their shot diets (the % of their shots taken from this range) because I think it helps tell the key story of the difference between these two guys.

I have been pleased with his progress as a rebounder though, and his iso defense is usually good when his head is in the game. But sounds like he's just a bench defensive specialist, doesn't it?

Yup, I pretty much agree all around. And I think we agree Oly may surprise (IMO we kind of need him too).
For clarity, did you think I was arguing he's a NBA level starter? I said "he's definitely a rotation player." He's not a bona fide NBA starter, never has been, unlikely to ever be. But plus ISO-D and versatility and Top25 reb% at 22y/o is a rotation player for all but the best/deepest teams, absolutely on this team with only a very limited 33y/o and a 34 y/o lunch lady.

Let me ask this about Barnes, NBA avg Reb% is 10%, Barnes is at 7.4% and likely declining. Injured Fox and rookie Castle mostly running point reb'd at the same rate, avg Ast% is 16% Barnes is 8.6% (above his career avg), Stl/Blk 1.7%/1.9% Barnes = 0.8%/0.6%. Barnes is way below NBA avg at pretty much everything except 3% (and those stats 3% naturally raises) and TO%. Barnes was a great 3% shooter last yr, but slow and getting slower, and he started 82 games. Sounds like he's just a bench 3% specialist, doesn't it?

The roster is flawed, we've got to start a big F, and our rostered options appear to be only Oly, Barnes, and Sochan. IMO all 3 are bench players at this point. We need 3% shooting AND O-rebounding from that position.
2 guys where absolutely elite at one of those things last yr and were bad (or very bad) at the other, one guy offers both significantly above NBA average but turns 35 this season.
2 are high-IQ old consummate pros and on expiring deals, one is 4th yr 22y/o and playing for a contract and NBA reputation and is either too frantic and immature or just plain low BBIQ. None are bona fide NBA starters today, 2 never really have been.
Pick your poison.

 

[scott]

For clarity, did you think I was arguing he's a NBA level starter? I said "he's definitely a rotation player." He's not a bona fide NBA starter, never has been, unlikely to ever be. But plus ISO-D and versatility and Top25 reb% at 22y/o is a rotation player for all but the best/deepest teams, absolutely on this team with only a very limited 33y/o and a 34 y/o lunch lady.

Nope, wasn't trying to suggest you were saying that - I was just adding to your comment, which added some great context to the conversation. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[scott]

Let me ask this about Barnes, NBA avg Reb% is 10%, Barnes is at 7.4% and likely declining. Injured Fox and rookie Castle mostly running point reb'd at the same rate, avg Ast% is 16% Barnes is 8.6% (above his career avg), Stl/Blk 1.7%/1.9% Barnes = 0.8%/0.6%. Barnes is way below NBA avg at pretty much everything except 3% (and those stats 3% naturally raises) and TO%. Barnes was a great 3% shooter last yr, but slow and getting slower, and he started 82 games. Sounds like he's just a bench 3% specialist, doesn't it?

I agree with this. I think Barnes had a place on last year's starting line up in a team that was still finding its way with very little vet leadership. But the stakes have been raised and Barnes shouldn't start just because he's got some start streak to uphold. If he gets naturally displaced, then so be it (the same words could have been written about CP3, tbh).

I would start Barnes for now, because I don't know what the alternative is because we see if Lunch Lady can do it, but we might find that out 2 games into pre-season, and it wouldn't surprise me if Kelly is our opening day starting PF (or Jeremy if he comes into camp shooting likes its a summer workout video).

 

[scott]

literally ate at las palapas like one time in my decade of living in SA

Tacos Nortenos there are legit.

 

[Shmurs]

I agree with this. I think Barnes had a place on last year's starting line up in a team that was still finding its way with very little vet leadership. But the stakes have been raised and Barnes shouldn't start just because he's got some start streak to uphold. If he gets naturally displaced, then so be it (the same words could have been written about CP3, tbh).

I would start Barnes for now, because I don't know what the alternative is because we see if Lunch Lady can do it, but we might find that out 2 games into pre-season, and it wouldn't surprise me if Kelly is our opening day starting PF (or Jeremy if he comes into camp shooting likes its a summer workout video).

If Jeremy shoots it like his workout vids I’m going to break my f’ing TV. All those step back/side step/tatum-looking nonsense is years away from being something he should try in a game.

How bout a video of him shooting with the same mechanics from the same spot. Oh maybe, say, the corner?

Also, his form was still atrocious. His legs all kicked out to the side, the ball spinning sideways, the weird release…I cant even with this guy.

 

[scott]

If Jeremy shoots it like his workout vids I’m going to break my f’ing TV. All those step back/side step/tatum-looking nonsense is years away from being something he should try in a game.

How bout a video of him shooting with the same mechanics from the same spot. Oh maybe, say, the corner?

Also, his form was still atrocious. His legs all kicked out to the side, the ball spinning sideways, the weird release…I cant even with this guy.

If they go in (like they did in the workout video), who cares? (Editors Note: I don't expect them to go in)

 

[Arguendo]

Nope, wasn't trying to suggest you were saying that - I was just adding to your comment, which added some great context to the conversation. Sorry for the confusion.

Not offended at all, always appreciate your takes and willingness to engage.
I wanted to clarify if I came off that way, it wasn't intended and that Barnes is basically a mirror specialist. Sochan should not be an NBA starter until he shows out, but neither should Barnes unless no one else can hit a 3, ugh. So I'm pinning my hopes on Oly or a trade hahaha. Gonna be a fun yr!

 

[Shmurs]

If they go in (like they did in the workout video), who cares? (Editors Note: I don't expect them to go in)

I would care if the 14th most skilled player on the roster starts taking step back 3’s - even if he somehow clicks at 40%, because it would be fools gold and we know he has no chance of being that guy for a long period. Dying to see the boring corner 3 video.

 

[scott]

I would care if the 14th most skilled player on the roster starts taking step back 3’s - even if he somehow clicks at 40%, because it would be fools gold and we know he has no chance of being that guy for a long period. Dying to see the boring corner 3 video.

I mean, we aren't really disagreeing. My comment was basically "if Sochan turned into Curry" and you're saying that if he is Curry, then it's fool's gold so he shouldn't even show us if he's Curry or not... realistically, it doesn't fucking matter, because he's not Curry.

 

[dastexan]

I would care if the 14th most skilled player on the roster starts taking step back 3’s - even if he somehow clicks at 40%, because it would be fools gold and we know he has no chance of being that guy for a long period. Dying to see the boring corner 3 video.

I'd go beg Modesto for forgiveness for leaving his site 20 years ago if this happened.

 

[MacNeacail]

My greatest hope is the new coaches don't favor player seniority and just go with the best players / best fit for the team. The depth chart I am hoping for is:

PG/SG: Fox (32min) / Castle (32min) / Harper (32min)
3 man rotation. Keep 2 of the 3 on the court at all times. Playing all 3 at once may be interesting but we lose the size advantage, and they may wear out at a critical point in the game. Keeping them at 32minutes would allow them to play at 100% effort.

SF: Sochan (24min) / Champagnie (24min) / Bryant (Austin)
It's a long shot, but if Sochan starts shooting (and hitting) 3s, he would fit very well at SF. Sochan and Barnes played well last year when they were on the court together. If Sochan fails in the first half of the year, you can always play Vassell, increase Champ's minutes, and call Bryant up to the main squad.

PF: Barnes (24min) / Olynyk (24min)
Barnes averaged 27minutes last season and Olynyk averaged 20minutes. There is room for Keldon to get a few minutes or Kornet to drop down to PF for a few minutes if these guys can't keep up.

C: Wemby (32min) / Kornet (16min)
Keeping Wemby around 32minutes allows him to play at a high level on both ends of the court without dying of exhaustion in the 4th quarter. Kornet averaged 16minutes last season and seems to do good at that level.

Injury Reserve / Trade Fodder: Vassell / Keldon
They look like they are good, but they end up being a net-negative. Maybe the coaches can change their mindset and reach their full potential. Maybe we can get some future draft picks/swaps out of them. They do have a lot of value if someone gets injured, but I would prefer the players listed above.

 

[spurraider21]

I mean, we aren't really disagreeing. My comment was basically "if Sochan turned into Curry" and you're saying that if he is Curry, then it's fool's gold so he shouldn't even show us if he's Curry or not... realistically, it doesn't fucking matter, because he's not Curry.

His point is why waste time practicing Curry shots when he can be practicing the more realistic Bowen shots

 

[scott]

His point is why waste time practicing Curry shots when he can be practicing the more realistic Bowen shots

I'm going to give Jeremy the benefit of the doubt and say that he probably is practicing those things, they just don't make the IG videos (though I believe I had seen some footage of him practicing corner 3s with the FIBA ball). Either way, I don't think he'll be a good shooter. If I were the Spurs I would have traded him already, so I'm not going to hold my breath either way

 

[spurraider21]

well, with the news that Fox seems unlikely to suit up opening night, and Harper not really even practicing now, wonder what the opening day lineup looks like

Castle/Vassell/Champagnie/Barnes/Wemby or Castle/Vassell/Barnes/Sochan/Wemby

 

[Neuromancer]

well, with the news that Fox seems unlikely to suit up opening night, and Harper not really even practicing now, wonder what the opening day lineup looks like

Castle/Vassell/Champagnie/Barnes/Wemby or Castle/Vassell/Barnes/Sochan/Wemby

FIrst lineup imo

 

[scott]

well, with the news that Fox seems unlikely to suit up opening night, and Harper not really even practicing now, wonder what the opening day lineup looks like

Castle/Vassell/Champagnie/Barnes/Wemby or Castle/Vassell/Barnes/Sochan/Wemby

I think that opening night lineup is going to tell us a lot about the team's thinking re: Sochan.

 

[SpursFan86]

FWIW, saw a blurb about Carter Bryant recognizing/admitting that he'll likely spend time in Austin this year. Not exactly earth-shattering, but think it's probably unlikely he's part of the rotation at any point in the first half of the regular season.

 

[spurraider21]

I think that opening night lineup is going to tell us a lot about the team's thinking re: Sochan.

its been said in another thread but i dont think "fit with wemby" is the big issue with sochan so much as "fit with our guards who are not very strong shooters, and who we should prioritize ahead of sochan"

with that said, lineup 2 is replacing fox with sochan from our regular lineup, which is a shooting downgrade, but not so severe as replacing HB with him

 

[Ariel]

FWIW, saw a blurb about Carter Bryant recognizing/admitting that he'll likely spend time in Austin this year. Not exactly earth-shattering, but think it's probably unlikely he's part of the rotation at any point in the first half of the regular season.

This isn't the '22 Spurs anymore, but if he can shoot it I don't see why he wouldn't be able to crack the rotation.

 

[couchman]

I love Bryant's potential and I also think he'll mostly be in Austin this year

 

[DTW]

The way I see it, the only way to have a functional half court offense spacing wise, is to mostly excise Sochan from the rotation and barely play Castle and Harper together.

Sochan can be in the rotation in matchups where the primary perimeter creator is physically overwhelming for Castle. In those games, Olynyk should play instead of Kornet.

They've got to prioritize Wembanyama, Fox and the highest ceiling youth period and hope that 48 minutes of elite rim protection by Wembanyama and Kornet keeps them solid defensively and rebounding wise.

 

[Exstatic]

FWIW, saw a blurb about Carter Bryant recognizing/admitting that he'll likely spend time in Austin this year. Not exactly earth-shattering, but think it's probably unlikely he's part of the rotation at any point in the first half of the regular season.

I was waiting for the ropes thrown over shower rods on this one.

 

[spurraider21]

what lineup do you roll out against a Mavs squad expected to start DLo, Klay, Flagg, Davis, Lively? you cant have Barnes on one of those bigs, and are already giving up size with Vassell on Flagg.

imo you kind of have to start one of Kornet/Olynyk. that way one of those guys can check the second Dallas big while Barnes is more suited to guard Flagg. then you have Vassell on Klay and Castle on DLo.