Analysis Spurs rotations and depth chart

[Exstatic]

Ahhhh crap. That’s not good.

But certainly someone with the exaggerated mechanics of a 10th century trebuchet will figure out his jump shot eventually.

He shot 40% playing in a complementary role where he wasn’t trying to create his 3s.in one of his early seasons.

 

[scott]

He shot 40% playing in a complementary role where he wasn’t trying to create his 3s.in one of his early seasons.

You had me with this line of thinking previously… 3 years later, I’m not falling for it again

 

[Kick-Stand]

You had me with this line of thinking previously… 3 years later, I’m not falling for it again

I so badly wanted to trade Keldon a couple of years ago when maybe he could have gotten you a pick or something. I hate being right about him tanking in value and very much fear I'm right about Vassell in the same way.

 

[STAT88]

The conundrum with Sochan is that his perimeter defense is his strength and that’s most suited to a starting 3 role where he can guard the best player 1-4, but his weakness is shooting and the starting lineup is already projected to have 1 if not 2 mediocre shooters in Castle and Fox.

Fox-Castle-Sochan-KO-Wemby
Harper-Vassell-Champ-Barnes-Kornet
JM-Waters-Keldon-Bryant-Biyombo

There’s a few ways you can go.

If Sochan continues to struggle from 3 and the SL offense doesn’t fire, bench him for a shooter (Vassell, Barnes, Champ), but then your defense and rebounding suffers.

If Sochans defense proves invaluable in the SL, and Castle struggles from 3, you can move Castle to the bench for a shooter but that puts a lot of pressure on Fox to create everything himself with no secondary penetrator. Unless it’s Harper that replaces him but then he’d have to be shooting the 3 at a good clip which seems iffy at best.

It’ll be interesting to see the way Mitch goes.

 

[couchman]

I wonder how much Mitch’s ability as an offensive coach will impact our lineups.
Offensive coaches tend to prioritize the best offensive lineups. Is Mitch like that?
Another possible approach is that he prioritizes defensive players because he believes Fox+Wemby+MitchOffense will score a lot. That is the kind of situation that could give Sochan life.

 

[Space Cowboy]

To start the season:

Starters:
Fox(32)/Vassel(28)/Castle(30)/Barnes(28)/Wemby(32)
Bench:
Harper(26), Sochan(20), Kornet(16), KJ(16), Champ(12)

KO active roster with situational minutes and insurance against injury.

BB-active roster but just injury insurance

JM-active roster but just injury insurance

Mid season trade to consolidate minutes. KJ, Sochan, & Vassel the most likely candidates to be moved, probably in that order.

KJ’s minutes get absorbed by Champ & Harper if he’s moved.

Sochan’s absorbed by Kelly O and Kornet with Wemby playing with Kornet in limited minutes.

Vassel’s absorbed by Harper, Castle, and Champ.

Return for any one of those players is marginal to midrange future assets and filler player(s) that do not demand minutes.

Larger trade of a combo of 2 of KJ/Dev/Sochan and some of the Spurs future assets for a 3&d wing.

Bryant starts out in Austin but finishes the season with the big club with limited minutes.

 

[TBdog]

If Sochan doesn't beat out Barnes, his career earnings is down the drain. It's not a given Castle starts either. Fox, Vassell and Wemby are really the only three I'm confident will start.

 

[Space Cowboy]

If Sochan doesn't beat out Barnes, his career earnings is down the drain. It's not a given Castle starts either. Fox, Vassell and Wemby are really the only three I'm confident will start.

I like Sochan and value his energy and defense, but I think Barnes shooting and vet presence is going to be more important to the team this year. Sochan’s extension, or lack there of, is going to be interesting to follow.

I guess it’s not a given that Castle starts, but I’d love to see him on the court close to 30mins a night. I think he’s going to have a really good 2nd year and be one of those players that impacts winning beyond the box score.

 

[spurraider21]

He shot 40% playing in a complementary role where he wasn’t trying to create his 3s.in one of his early seasons.

he's been in a complementary role where he hasnt been asked to create 3's in the last 2 seasons as well, and he has shot 34.6% and 31.8%. he's a career 35% shooter. the 40% year was a mirage.

 

[couchman]

The current CBA has lowered the market for restricted free agents, I wonder if the Spurs are ok letting Sochan go there and test the market.
That's likely the best way to get him back at a lower cost.
He has a lot on the line this season.

 

[Neuromancer]

The current CBA has lowered the market for restricted free agents, I wonder if the Spurs are ok letting Sochan go there and test the market.
That's likely the best way to get him back at a lower cost.
He has a lot on the line this season.

If they're smart they will. Because no one is throwing a big contract at Sochan. And if they do, let his ass walk

 

[spurs10]

I'll be watching the SF position as Vassell will likely start, but I agree Champs might be stronger. Or he gets left out like in the past.

 

[Arguendo]

You people are still thinking of 3 guys playing one position, instead of our future 1,2,3. The unhappy ones will be DV, and Keldon.

No, you clearly didn't read what I said. I was responding to a specific post and specifically laid out the criteria for my argument.
Castle plays a different position, I said that implicitly. Him and one of Fox or Harper can be great together, I said that explicitly. To truly maximize Fox or FUTURE Harper, both would need to be primary (unless Fox starts to shot like Kyrie, which he's never done), but only once Harper is ready which will not be this season or likely next.

In the near term, I think Fox/Harper/Castle can absolutely work together this yr if at least one of them shoots 36+% from deep (Fox shot 37% in 23-24'), Wemby shots 36-37% (he shot above 37% on crazy volume from Nov thru Jan), and we have a PF who provides at least average rebounding with a 38+% 3 which could very well be Oly. That won't be Barnes, he rebounds like a guard.

Please get out of the Spurstalk mindset where everything needs to be some snarky comment. I explicitly said Castle is different. If you are arguing the either Fox or a developed (not 19y/o) Harper will be maximized off-ball, we have differing opinions. I think mine falls with the vast bulk of NBA people, but that's down the road, which I explicitly said.

Fox should have the ball until Harper is developed, Harper can play-off and secondary and work on other areas until then, and Castle can play the wing and focus on improving the shot and D.
But I think Harper's ceiling is higher than Fox's, like maybe a 3rd Harper vs a 30 y/o Fox. That's what I was saying and if Fox reads that writing on the wall (because all 3 are excelling but playing reduced minutes) it would make sense for him to ask out before his next contract. Nothing you said responded to anything I said, which you quoted.

Yes, the problem here is DV and Keldon and a lack of true forwards who can both shoot and rebound. Read what I wrote, stop projecting bullshit. New board, we can do better here.

 

[Arguendo]

I want Sochan to excel...it would be great for the Spurs if he did.

But based on the tape...he just doesn't fit anywhere. He is too chaotic and frankly has no BBIQ.

IF his summer shooting videos carry any truth and he can actually shoot the three now...I think he has a chance as a solid role player, but not a starter. And that is a big IF.

I have no confidence he'll take a major step, but he was thrown into the fire on an absolute shit-show, all-out tank team, if KJ and DV and Branham doing whatever they wanted, no scheme or set O or D.
Then the Wemby circus and point experiment, and still no scheme or set roles, no PG, Zollins asked to do way too much, and no coach.

Hopefully CP3 and Barnes helped change the culture, and Johnson and the new assistants actually implement a scheme, give everyone defined roles, and hold players accountable like Pop used to do.

Sochan and DV have never had any structure in the NBA, if there's hope for development, I'd pin it on that.
Wemby is now as AS, thrid yr and had to watch the shit-show for months, Fox will have a chip on his shoulder after the injury and want to show-out like he didn't get to last yr, Kornet adds champ experience to Barnes, Oly is a great vet presence and constant hustle guy. I wouldn't be surprised if Castle takes the vocal leader/holding guys accountable role CP3 brought.
Play smart & play in your role, or ride the pine.

Don't have much hope (they've looked both low BBIQ, but maybe that was just the situation), but there's a chance, and just a few slight improvements could make both a lot more effective. Plus Sochan's playing for a contract.

 

[Arguendo]

What does Sochan even do well? Like he is a solid 1 on 1 defender but his overall team defense is meh. He cannot shoot. He sucks at passing. He isn't a particularly good rebounder. He cannot score unless he's basically wide open under the basket. I like the kid but his schtick is wearing thin since he hasn't developed his game at all to justify his antics. This is a make or break season for him and if I had to bet I'd say break

Check the stats
Actually he was an elite O-rebounder last yr top 15 in the NBA in O% and Top 30 Reb% overall. He was a particularly good rebounder last season, with and without Wemby, he was pretty constant.
He's an average connector which makes him above average for a role-player big, he's above avg within 3' at 71% (same as Sabonis and Anunoby), and he's above average at getting to the line (same as Josh Hart and Franz Wagner), above average TS% (same as Kawhi and Antony Davis).

He got his issues, is often out of control, and is generally frustrating, but the hate here is undeserved. He is not a star, he never will be. Yes, the schtick is old, entering his 4th yr he should grow TF up and an like a pro.

Since I'm looking at the stats, last season he was worlds better than Anunoby on O% and D%, worlds better Ast%, similar blocks/steals though Anunoby has the edge, way way worse TO%, virtually same usg% & TS%.
But Sochan was the better shooter from 0-3, and from 3-10 and from 10-16. Anunoby is a near max player and 27 and has a real team around him. Sochan had a 2nd yr Wemby, an ancient CP3, and a stroked out coach with no set role.

NOT SAYING HE'S ANUNOBY OR EVER WILL BE, I'm comparing a much older "Star" PF in a much better situation, so you understand he is not a terrible player and in fact significantly better in several respects in a much worse situation being 6 yrs younger.

When you add his iso-D and positional versatility with elite O%, very good overall Reb%, and a few above average traits as a 21y/o, he's definitely a rotation player.
He's just a particularly bad fit on this roster and he's been miscast as a starter as this point.

Definitely make or break, but he is playing for a contract.

 

[Shmurs]

I think people should be more careful when describing him as a “connector”. There really aren’t many players in the league who pick up their dribble and just hold the ball in the air, looking around desperately for someone to hand it off to. And Sochan does this all the time. All the time.

He doesn’t have general awareness on the court. What people see as moments of connectivity and creativity is the result of him dicking around and occasionally getting it right 1 out of 10 times. It’s like when Wemby throws him a lob once every 4 games and that’s an example of their elite chemistry.

He’s not an average connector. He’s bottom tier in that regard because of the countless embarrassing moments.

 

[scott]

Some great stats and context, @Arguendo. I was surprised at well Sochan compares to OG on those 3-10ft and 10-16ft shots, so I went and looked it up for myself. These are last season's stats

	OG FG%	OG Diet	Sochan FG%	Sochan Diet
0-3 ft	.706	.338	.707	.546
3-10 ft	.349	.123	.361	.207
10-16 ft	.321	.055	.333	.038
16 ft - 3p	.289	.037	.143	.015
3p	.372	.448	.308	.194

I added in their shot diets (the % of their shots taken from this range) because I think it helps tell the key story of the difference between these two guys.

• First big difference, OG has all but eliminated anything beyond 3 feet and inside of the three point arch from his game. Jeremy has too for the most part, but should probably try to get that 3-10ft number down from 20% of his shots to closer to 10% like OG has done
• The second, is what we all know already, the 3pt game. We've discussed at length over the years, but Jeremy isn't just a bad shooter, he's a non-shooter. Until that changes, he's basically just Clint Capela on offense. That's not even a diss, Capela has had a fine NBA career that should be considered a successful career by any measure... but we can all easily wrap our minds around the limitations Capela creates on the offensive end.

And @Shmurs brings up great points about Jeremy's abilities as a supposed connector. I've just never seen someone aimless penetrate the paint, get confused, and just jump to do an aerial 180 to try to find someone to pass to as the shot clock winds down. This play seems to happen multiple times a game and they are just complete killers.

I have been pleased with his progress as a rebounder though, and his iso defense is usually good when his head is in the game. But sounds like he's just a bench defensive specialist, doesn't it?

 

[spurraider21]

as the chart above shows, both sochan and anunoby take less than 1% of their FGA between 10ft and 3pt line, so its not useful at all to say "but sochan is better from 10-16 feet". both of them take over 75% of their shots from within 3 feet and beyond the arc.

but if you are going to be a role/complementary player, and are not a center, the 3pt shot is going to be worlds more important. its not like either of these guys are creating their shots inside 3 feet with their post games, they're being fed by other offensive players.

 

[Shmurs]

OG will have a man near him when he’s parked in the corner. Parse the stats any way you like, that’s the key difference. OG allows room for Brunson to drive, for KAT to drive, for Hart to cut…it helps to have wings who don’t have their defenders sag.

If you have a point center, then you don’t waste that by putting Shaq out there to hit corner 3’s.

 

[pad300]

Some great stats and context, @Arguendo. I was surprised at well Sochan compares to OG on those 3-10ft and 10-16ft shots, so I went and looked it up for myself. These are last season's stats

OG FG%	OG Diet	Sochan	Sochan Diet
0-3 ft	.706	.338	.707	.546
3-10 ft	.349	.123	.361	.207
10-16 ft	.321	.055	.333	.038
16 ft - 3p	.289	.037	.143	.015
3p	.372	.448	.308	.194

I added in their shot diets (the % of their shots taken from this range) because I think it helps tell the key story of the difference between these two guys.

• First big difference, OG has all but eliminated anything beyond 3 feet and inside of the three point arch from his game. Jeremy has too for the most part, but should probably try to get that 3-10ft number down from 20% of his shots to closer to 10% like OG has done
• The second, is what we all know already, the 3pt game. We've discussed at length over the years, but Jeremy isn't just a bad shooter, he's a non-shooter. Until that changes, he's basically just Clint Capela on offense. That's not even a diss, Capela has had a fine NBA career that should be considered a successful career by any measure... but we can all easily wrap our minds around the limitations Capela creates on the offensive end.

And @Shmurs brings up great points about Jeremy's abilities as a supposed connector. I've just never seen someone aimless penetrate the paint, get confused, and just jump to do an aerial 180 to try to find someone to pass to as the shot clock winds down. This play seems to happen multiple times a game and they are just complete killers.

I have been pleased with his progress as a rebounder though, and his iso defense is usually good when his head is in the game. But sounds like he's just a bench defensive specialist, doesn't it?

Something is wrong with your shot diet numbers, because they are adding up to way more than 100%...

 

[Ariel]

Something is wrong with your shot diet numbers, because they are adding up to way more than 100%...

Labels should be shifted 1 column to the right, so only 3rd and 5th columns (shot diets) should add to 100%

 

[scott]

Something is wrong with your shot diet numbers, because they are adding up to way more than 100%...

Labels should be shifted 1 column to the right, so only 3rd and 5th columns (shot diets) should add to 100%

Correct, I had the labelled incorrectly offset by one column. I've fixed it in my original post. They add up to 100% with the headers corrected.

 

[buttsR4rebounding]

I think the only guaranteed minutes barring injury are Fox and Wemby.
I could even see a Fox, Vassell, Champ, Olynyk, Wemby lineup

I think this would be an awesome starting line up. Another reason I think the Spurs are making a mistake by not extending Champ now. He probably jumps at a 3 year $20 million extension. Then decline his 4th year and make it a 4year $23 million deal. Something like 7,6,5,5 would be a great value contract for a solid role player.

 

[ace3g]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1971239519426052276

 

[Neuromancer]

Las Palapas? it's a solid restaurant but not one I would expect to be a selling point for a millionaire athlete