Analysis 2026 First Round Opponent Watch

[inagra]

@Sugus has a fantastic thread about the race for home court and seeding, but I wanted to start focusing more specifically on who our first round matchup might be and the pros and cons of each possibility.

Realistically, the Spurs are also in a pretty stable position themselves. Basketball Reference currently gives them an 86.8% chance to finish as the 2 seed. There’s still a small chance they could catch OKC for the 1 seed if things break right over the final stretch, but for the purposes of this thread it probably makes the most sense to assume the Spurs stay in the 2 slot. The most realistic first round opponent probably comes from the 7–9 range depending on how the play-in shakes out. I’m basically giving the Blazers no chance to get out of the play-in, so the focus is really these three teams.

Odds as of today
Suns — 29.9% chance of finishing 7th
Clippers — 27.5% chance of finishing 7th
Warriors — 17.9% chance of finishing 7th

The Warriors are always scary in a playoff setting and it would suck facing Curry even if they are older and basically a 1 man show. The Clippers are the other annoying possibility. FK Kawhi still applies and he is on one right now. He could win a series by himself. Suns are volatile but still talented, and honestly my biggest concern there is just chaos basketball and physical play. Brooks better not hurt Wemby if that ends up being the matchup.

Who do you want to see?

 

[LeBowen]

I'd want to avoid the Suns solely because Brooks would commit at least a couple of dirty fouls.
Other than that, I don't really care, we're way better than those teams.

Clippers could've been a problem, but they traded away Zubac and Garland is an easy target for our guards.

 

[Neuromancer]

Feels like the Suns would be our toughest opponent. Dubs beat us twice but it took Curry going nuclear both times. They're old as fuck and their young players are ass. Regardless of their early season wins I think they'd be the easiest opponent theoretically. Clippers would be a lot harder if they kept Harden and Zubac and Kawhi is just as likely to miss the entire series as he is to go off. Garland should get eaten alive on defense. So really I'd prefer to play either LAC or GS. Would also feel good to bend either of those teams over considering recent history

 

[BatManu20]

Tbh.

Analysis Thread 'The Race for Home-Court Advantage - 25/26 Playoffs Seed Tracker'

Dec 30, 2025

Making this a general discussion thread for keeping track of opposing Western Conference teams and their developments through the season, as it relates to the Spurs' current push for not only the Playoffs, but even home-court advantage on them.

The Spurs are currently the #2 seed in the Western Conference, with a W-L record of 23-9.

The #1 seed, OKC, seems hard to catch up with at a 28-5 record, but we hold the tie-breaker against them. The #3 seed, Denver, is currently 22-10, right behind the Spurs - but Nikola Jokic is expected to...

• Sugus
• Replies: 1,543
• Forum: Spurs Talk

• 

 

[Robz4000]

There's still a high chance they could land the Lakers in the first round considering how brutal their schedule is to end the season. Would prefer them over the Clippers and Suns tbh.

 

[Arguendo]

@Sugus has a fantastic thread about the race for home court and seeding, but I wanted to start focusing more specifically on who our first round matchup might be and the pros and cons of each possibility.

Realistically, the Spurs are also in a pretty stable position themselves. Basketball Reference currently gives them an 86.8% chance to finish as the 2 seed. There’s still a small chance they could catch OKC for the 1 seed if things break right over the final stretch, but for the purposes of this thread it probably makes the most sense to assume the Spurs stay in the 2 slot. The most realistic first round opponent probably comes from the 7–9 range depending on how the play-in shakes out. I’m basically giving the Blazers no chance to get out of the play-in, so the focus is really these three teams.

Odds as of today
Suns — 29.9% chance of finishing 7th
Clippers — 27.5% chance of finishing 7th
Warriors — 17.9% chance of finishing 7th

The Warriors are always scary in a playoff setting and it would suck facing Curry even if they are older and basically a 1 man show. The Clippers are the other annoying possibility. FK Kawhi still applies and he is on one right now. He could win a series by himself. Suns are volatile but still talented, and honestly my biggest concern there is just chaos basketball and physical play. Brooks better not hurt Wemby if that ends up being the matchup.

Who do you want to see?

IMO anyone we face will be "scary", unless Portland goes crazy somehow manages to get #7.
I would be most scared of a Kawhi playing like a top5 dude, backed up by Zu + Collins and a Garland and Mathurin with lots to prove. If healthy, that's easily the scariest of the bunch to me. Kawhi can get them 4 wins and Zu may be able to hinder Vic.
Phoenix had our number early and they've got some guys I can see being reckless. I could see them catching fire from 3 for a few games, but not 4.

I'm not scared of GSW at all. Curry is still great, he is scary. Kristaps has the potential to give 20-25 good minutes, but that's very unlikely. The rest of the team are mediocre rotation guys at best + a couple washed vet. Draymond is legit scary/dirty, but he respects Vic and he's eyeing a broadcast career, and he'll behave enough to avoid (another) flat out assault. No chance Curry carries them to 4 wins.
Bring on the dying dynasty and let Fox get his revenge. Its the perfect way to kick-off this era. The king is dead, long live the KING!

 

[OK Computer]

IMO anyone we face will be "scary", unless Portland goes crazy somehow manages to get #7.
I would be most scared of a Kawhi playing like a top5 dude, backed up by Zu + Collins and a Garland and Mathurin with lots to prove. If healthy, that's easily the scariest of the bunch to me. Kawhi can get them 4 wins and Zu may be able to hinder Vic.
Phoenix had our number early and they've got some guys I can see being reckless. I could see them catching fire from 3 for a few games, but not 4.

I'm not scared of GSW at all. Curry is still great, he is scary. Kristaps has the potential to give 20-25 good minutes, but that's very unlikely. The rest of the team are mediocre rotation guys at best + a couple washed vet. Draymond is legit scary/dirty, but he respects Vic and he's eyeing a broadcast career, and he'll behave enough to avoid (another) flat out assault. No chance Curry carries them to 4 wins.
Bring on the dying dynasty and let Fox get his revenge. Its the perfect way to kick-off this era. The king is dead, long live the KING!

Zubac is with the Pacers now.

 

[Arguendo]

There's still a high chance they could land the Lakers in the first round considering how brutal their schedule is to end the season. Would prefer them over the Clippers and Suns tbh.

Hadn't thought of that. Yeah, would rather the Lakers than Clipper or Suns.
With Kawhi playing at this level, that Clips teams is legit scary. They've got real pieces, enough to win a round. Could definitely see them beating the Rox or Lakers, maybe the Wolves, if given the chance.

 

[LeBowen]

I wouldn't want the Lakers because the games would be unbearable with the whistle they have and the NBA trying to make it a competitive series.

 

[Arguendo]

Zubac is with the Pacers now.

Yeah, I'm retarded. That's how they got Mathurin. Brain-fart.

 

[inagra]

There's still a high chance they could land the Lakers in the first round considering how brutal their schedule is to end the season. Would prefer them over the Clippers and Suns tbh.

Yea they could very easily drop back. They have the 11th hardest schedule.

 

[inagra]

Tbh.

Analysis Thread 'The Race for Home-Court Advantage - 25/26 Playoffs Seed Tracker'

Dec 30, 2025

Making this a general discussion thread for keeping track of opposing Western Conference teams and their developments through the season, as it relates to the Spurs' current push for not only the Playoffs, but even home-court advantage on them.

The Spurs are currently the #2 seed in the Western Conference, with a W-L record of 23-9.

The #1 seed, OKC, seems hard to catch up with at a 28-5 record, but we hold the tie-breaker against them. The #3 seed, Denver, is currently 22-10, right behind the Spurs - but Nikola Jokic is expected to...

• Sugus
• Replies: 1,543
• Forum: Spurs Talk

• 

I started off the post by mentioning him by name. Good work.

 

[ambchang]

I guess clippers. Good training as those guys can play a very deliberate physical brand of basketball. Also the intensity could be high especially at home because of nephew.

 

[scott]

DEN could very well end up at 7 at this point…

 

[Robz4000]

DEN could very well end up at 7 at this point…

If Murray is fine the rest of the way I don't see them dropping to 7, but it might come down to whether the Spurs take the last game of the year seriously tbh.

 

[scott]

If Murray is fine the rest of the way I don't see them dropping to 7, but it might come down to whether the Spurs take the last game of the year seriously tbh.

I remember the last time we tried to pick our first round opponent…

 

[Robz4000]

I remember the last time we tried to pick our first round opponent…

OTOH, if that game matters it'll prolly be for the first seed tbh.

 

[scott]

OTOH, if that game matters it'll prolly be for the first seed tbh.

I hope we do everything in our power to sweep DEN, tbh. They are another team we match up well against. I’m not scurred

 

[Robz4000]

I hope we do everything in our power to sweep DEN, tbh. They are another team we match up well against. I’m not scurred

Depends on whether CJ and THJ play like they have most of the season or turn into the Splash Brothers against the Spurs tbh.

 

[210XSpurs]

I remember the last time we tried to pick our first round opponent…

2015?

 

[Robz4000]

2015?

2011, when Manu broke his elbow tbh.

 

[wEmBoY]

2011, when Manu broke his elbow tbh.

It was the other way around. Girzzlies tanked to get the spurs in the first round.

 

[Robz4000]

It was the other way around. Girzzlies tanked to get the spurs in the first round.

Iirc, if the Spurs won that game they would've gotten the Hornets (Pelicans). OTOH, if the Spurs rest the Big 3 they would've been fully healthy for the Grizz.

 

[Correct Crusader]

I think the ideal scenario is the Lakers.

 

[Robz4000]

I think the ideal scenario is the Lakers.

Unless the Blazers catch fire tbh.