Agree OKC is the team to beat, but I would say they have been comparatively underwhelming so far. Beating Pacers in 2OT, barely winning vs. the Mavs and Kings aren't anything to be impressed by. They survived the Rockets at home in 2OT is a good win, but I didn't think the Rockets were hitting their stride yet back then trying to work out their PG thing. The beat down on the Hawks, Wizards and Pels are nice but that's what they should have done. Taking care of the Clippers in rather dominant fashion is great as well, but the Clippers have been pretty slow out of the gate so far. OKC had a soft schedule, maybe not as soft as ours but I thought they would have absolutely dominated every single team they played so far, other than the Rockets. I think OKC isn't even playing to their full potential yet because well, they are the champs and
ctober games, they will turn it up a notch in a few months and absolutely annihilate the competition. Only the Nuggets has a real chance, and the Rockets, if they put everything together, will be a legit challenger. I don't really see anyone else having an actual chance to unseat them, but then we never know, which is why we play the games.
Speaking of the Rockets, they are looking good. Sengun is playing like a PG, and his defence is really hitting his stride. He is playing more and more like a mini-Jokic. His passing has hit another level and he is now launching and making 3s too, he should really be getting MVP considerations (long shot to win, but should have some votes) if he keeps this up. He's ranking 20th in AST%, 23rd in PER (I don't really care for this stat tbh, but another data point), 20th in FTr, 40th in REB% (around there for both O and D), 41st in STL%, 20th in WS/48, 9th in BPM and 15th in VORP, all this while "only" ranking 40th in USG%. I didn't think he'd be this good, but damn, the last two years he most definitely made me eat crow. Despite having Durant on the team, at least based on the little I saw of the Rockets, Sengun is the offensive hub. The Rockets also have a great group of guys to cover up his weaknesses.
The Rockets' offence is something the Spurs should really look at. They are 29th in 3PA (1st in % though), but they are 3rd in 2PA and 1st in FTA. They are now 1st in ORTG and are absolutely going against the grain. They are ranking 5th in FGA% from 16-3P, and #6 from 10-16, the two least desirable spots. Having Durant there most definitely helps, but they are not particularly accurate there. What is carrying them is that they are #1 in FT/FGA (and shooting lights out from 3 despite low volumes), which help boost their TS% to 61.6%, 3rd in the league. The math for 3P% is self explanatory, but the FT part is what is interesting. Despite shooting a low number of 3s, their boost in FTs, even if they are shooting a league average of about 78% will always be a better outcome than shooting 3s. People always say shooting 40% is equal to shooting 60% from 2s (let's not talk about the rebounds and transitions) but what is even better is shooting 55% from 2 and 80% from the FT line (both about league average) but having a 30% FT/FGA ratio, even assuming none of those are and-1s, you are having an expected return as follows:
For every 20 possessions where you shoot a 2, you get an expected return of 22 points. You also have 6 FTs (out of 3 additional possessions) at 80%, which gives you an additional 4.8 points, for a total of 26.8 points on 23 possessions. Where as if you make 3s at a 40% clip will only give you 27.6 expected points, and no team will shoot 40% from 3 for a season. Going by last year's numbers, the Bucks shot 38.7% for the season to finish number 1 in the league but on relatively low volumes (#18), so no team can really do this all-3 offence, but then I am going on an extreme, but comparing best case % for 3s vs. average shooting %s from 2s and FTs, the 2s and FTs scenario still wins out, which shows how shooting a high number of FTs is a way to go.
Anyways, hard to make this clear, so apologies.
To take this a step further, if we were to take into account and-1s, this makes the expected returns even more impressive, as 12% of FTas are and-1s. Assuming none of the FTs are from 3s as I cannot find any data in this. Let's compare two teams over 100 possessions using last years numbers:
Team A shoots league average in 3s (36%), 3PA (42.1%) 2s (54.5%) and FTs (78%) but shoots .3 FT/FGA
Team B shoots a league leading % in 3s (38.7%) and attempts (53.6%), but average in 2PT FG, FTs and FT/FGA (.189).
Team C, same as Team A, but shooting only a league leading .213 FT/FGA instead of the likely unsustainable .3 that the Rockets are doing right now.
| 3PA | 3P% | 2PA | 2P% | FTA (Not and-1s) | FTA (And-1s) | FT% | Expected Points |
| Team A | 36.54 | 36.0% | 50.34 | 54.5% | 26.4 | 3.6 | 78% | 63.95 |
| Team B | 49.14 | 38.7% | 42.54 | 54.5% | 16.63 | 2.27 | 78% | 56.94 |
| Team C | 38.15 | 36.0% | 52.47 | 54.5% | 18.74 | 2.56 | 78% | 59.95 |
The logic is as follows:
If a team has a FTr of .30 FTA/FGA, and 12% of those were and-1s, then for every 100 possessions, they will shoot 26.4A (using up 13.2 possessions assuming they are all on 2 pointers) and 3.6 and-1s. Then the remaining 86.6 possessions, 36.46 of them will be a 3PA (42% of shots) and 50.34 will be 2PA (58% of shots). Same for teams B and C but plug in different numbers.
So even if a team is shooting league leading attempts AND %, which is highly unlikely, Team A still scores 7 more points per 100 possessions, and team C still outscores Team B by 2.01 points per 100 possessions. That said, it is highly unlikely a non-Laker team can be leading the league in FT rate by going league average in 3PA, you must be constantly attacking the paint to get that many FTs.
But back to topic, if the Spurs can use Wemby as a centre hub for passing by using his scoring as a threat, that would be an offence that would be very hard to stop. Check the first clip below, at the 62s mark, see how the other players are moving around him for cuts and passes, that is somehting the Spurs can use quite effectively, especially with finishers like Castle, Harper, Korndog, and *gulp* Sochan. There doesn't need to be a huge amount of spacing, although spacing does work. Wemby has the height advantage to see over the defence, but he must be able to read the doubles properly.
Below is another clip, lots of cutting, people in dunker's spot, just lots of movement around.
I always wanted wemby to be like Jokic but realistically that is never going to happen. Wemby doesn't have that girth to move people around like Jokic could, and no offence to Wemby, Jokic is really one of the greatest passes ever, up there with, if not even better than, Bird, Magic, Kidd. That court sense is just something that is born with. But Sengun level? Most definitely Wemby can get there.
