Analysis Spurs rotations and depth chart

[LeBowen]

Got to make this topic again.

I'll try to break it down by what I think are guaranteed minutes for everyone. As in the minimum amount of minutes everyone will get.
Before Biyombo signing I would've said 4+1 without Olynyk or even Wemby at PF was guaranteed, but now I'm not so sure. Still, I don't think two big lineups will be a staple, but something situational against certain teams.
I'll still go with the 4+1 idea with Wemby at C.

C: Wemby (33) / Kornet (15) / Olynyk (situational) / Biyombo (DNP if everyone is healthy) - 0 minutes available.
Not much to say here other than we finally have rim protection when Wemby sits and we could even run some bench lineups with Olynyk as a stretch big.

As for perimeter, I think it should be split in primary and secondary ballhandler roles and two wing positions.
Mind you, even though Vassell will be at wing positions, on defense Castle will be the one guarding SFs and Vassell will get the easier guard matchup most of the time.

PG: Fox (33) / Harper (15) / McLaughlin (DNP) - 0 minutes available.
SG: Castle (25) / Harper (10) / Waters (situational) / DJG (DNP) - 13 minutes available.
Fox obviously has guaranteed minutes no matter what, Castle and Harper should average at least 25mpg. If they're doing well, then those available minutes at SG go to either of them. If not Waters, DJG or Devin can step in.

SF: Vassell (25) / Champagnie (10) / Bryant (Austin) / Ingram (DNP)
PF: Barnes (25) / Sochan (10) / Keldon (10) / Olynyk (situational) / Minix (DNP) - 16 minutes available between two wing positions.
The biggest issue because at the same time we have too many players and we're lacking quaranteed quality that we don't have to worry about if they'll deliver what's needed. I gave Champ/Sochan/Keldon 10 minutes each, but playing all of them is just redundant. I think unfortunately Champ gets the short end of the stick yet again even though he's the only one who fits the roster archetype-wise. Jeremy will be a net negative if he doesn't start shooting when left wide open and for me Keldon has become redundant now that we have Fox, Castle and Harper that can attack the basket. His only positive contribution was when he could exploit a matchup and keep attacking the basket, but now we need reliable floor spacers and defenders.
And obviously Carter will go to Austin because of those two unless seniority rules Spurs always respected change.

As for the coaching, Mitch has proven that he can create a solid offense because even without Fox and Wemby Spurs were 6th in ORT during March and April.
Sweeney and Williamson will hopefully sort the defense out.

 

[brazil]

I can see Carter go to Austin indeed.. Sochan has played 25+ mpg his 3 seaons like Keldon. Difficult to imagine Sochan below 20 but yeah.. it is going to a headache for the coach at all position except C.

 

[LeBowen]

I can see Carter go to Austin indeed.. Sochan has played 25+ mpg his 3 seaons like Keldon. Difficult to imagine Sochan below 20 but yeah.. it is going to a headache for the coach at all position except C.

Just to be clear, as I said those are minimum minutes. I don't think Jeremy or Keldon will get DNPs, but they won't have more than 10 guaranteed minutes. If they're not doing well, they won't play more than that.
Those leftover minutes, 29 of them at SG/SF/PF positions can be filled by any of these players, depending on who's doing well on any given night.

 

[brazil]

Just to be clear, as I said those are minimum minutes. I don't think Jeremy or Keldon will get DNPs, but they won't have more than 10 guaranteed minutes. If they're not doing well, they won't play more than that.
Those leftover minutes, 29 of them at SG/SF/PF positions can be filled by any of these players, depending on who's doing well on any given night.

Yes I got it thus the 16 mn available.. as I don't see Sochan with less than 20 mn you have 15 mn for Keldon. Don't get me wrong I agree they should not have (JS and KJ) guaranteed mn but knowing our organization hard to imagine... now we have a new coach so we never know. At the same time if you don't give mn to those guys their value will plummet and I still believe we can get something decent out of them in the future

 

[Neuromancer]

The thought of Vassell as our starting SF is nauseating tbh. He is going to get cooked by any real SF with a pulse on offense. Champ would be better suited to starting with DV off the bench as the microwave scorer role. No that Champ is a legit SF either but he's clearly better as a defender. Devin peaked as a rookie and has gotten considerably worse on D since then. Can't wait until we trade him for someone useful

 

[LeBowen]

The thought of Vassell as our starting SF is nauseating tbh. He is going to get cooked by any real SF with a pulse on offense.

Mind you, even though Vassell will be at wing positions, on defense Castle will be the one guarding SFs and Vassell will get the easier guard matchup most of the time.

 

[Neuromancer]

I'm not so sure Castle is suited to be guarding legit SFs either. In a perfect world neither of them would be guarding SFs. The Spurs have like 1 actual SF on the roster (Barnes) that's forced to play out of position at PF and he'd get cooked on D also. I really hope Bryant is the long term solution because this team is sorely lacking in legit Forwards right now

 

[LeBowen]

I'm not so sure Castle is suited to be guarding legit SFs either. In a perfect world neither of them would be guarding SFs. The Spurs have like 1 actual SF on the roster (Barnes) that's forced to play out of position at PF and he'd get cooked on D also. I really hope Bryant is the long term solution because this team is sorely lacking in legit Forwards right now

Yeah, it's not perfect, far from it.
I don't like we're giving up Castle's positional size so Vassell can start, but that's how it's going to be.

I'd prefer starting Fox/Castle/Champ/Barnes because that lineup was really good while Sochan and Vassell were injured last season.

 

[BacktoBasics]

Yeah, it's not perfect, far from it.
I don't like we're giving up Castle's positional size so Vassell can start, but that's how it's going to be.

I'd prefer starting Fox/Castle/Champ/Barnes because that lineup was really good while Sochan and Vassell were injured last season.

I have to agree. Starting.

Fox/Castle/Champ/Barnes/Wemby

Bench

Harper/Vassell/Sochan/Oly/Keldon/Luke

Vassell just barely fits anywhere. All Sochan has to do is shoot like 35% from 3 and he might crack the starting rotation.

 

[Thoodee]

Player I'm most intrigued with is carter bryant. Not that I think he is the most important piece to the puzzle, but If he manages get close to being an ariza type player, that will fast track this team 100%.

 

[SpursBrazil]

Spurs have a lot of new coaches now. I hope they can convince Johnson to play the guys who really fit. They don't have past history with Keldon, Sochan and others so I really hope they play the best players.

 

[BacktoBasics]

Player I'm most intrigued with is carter bryant. Not that I think he is the most important piece to the puzzle, but If he manages get close to being an ariza type player, that will fast track this team 100%.

My impression is that he’s a long term project. He certainly checks some boxes but I don’t expect him to play this year much at all.

If he becomes a rotation player I don’t think we’ll see that until his 3rd year.

 

[scott]

I'll respond with deeper thoughts later... but I think Kelly O might surprise us with a larger role than we might be giving credit for right now.

 

[NASpurs]

I'll respond with deeper thoughts later... but I think Kelly O might surprise us with a larger role than we might be giving credit for right now.

Sounds like he could be our next Zach Collins, I don't mean it in a good way. Hoping for the best.

 

[Arguendo]

...we have too many players and we're lacking quaranteed quality that we don't have to worry about if they'll deliver what's needed. I gave Champ/Sochan/Keldon 10 minutes each, but playing all of them is just redundant.

Your estimates look good to start the year.
Feels like the Spursy thing to do is look for a trade by the deadline...Keldon doesn't fit the roster at all =bad for him and bad for the Spurs. I think they try to move him rather than have him playing 9th/10th (11?) man and 15ish min per game as a 26y/o entering his "prime". He really is better than that, at least for a team w/o playoff aspirations. I know he's loved being a Spur and they love him, but his agent has to be looking at the roster and telling him we've gotta get you out of there and I'm positive the Spurs would entertain anything close to fair as a favor to Keldon (assuming he asks). Prolly have to be part of some bigger multi-team deal, but I'd bet the Spurs will try to put him in a better spot and his expiring will be valuable a yr from now.

Or done with the Sochan experiment, can get any value. Also doesn't fit at all (on O), still potential, but do they want to give him the extension? Does he have any interest in extending here if his minutes drop from 25-30/mpg to 10-15?

Barring injury, they both seem like prime trade candidates. Maybe wishful thinking, but hopefully they give it until New Years to assess the roster and look to move one.

 

[Arguendo]

I'm not so sure Castle is suited to be guarding legit SFs either. In a perfect world neither of them would be guarding SFs. The Spurs have like 1 actual SF on the roster (Barnes) that's forced to play out of position at PF and he'd get cooked on D also. I really hope Bryant is the long term solution because this team is sorely lacking in legit Forwards right now

I don't think Barnes has been an actual SF since leaving Dal, maybe GSW, at least on D.

 

[Arguendo]

I have to agree. Starting.

Fox/Castle/Champ/Barnes/Wemby

Bench

Harper/Vassell/Sochan/Oly/Keldon/Luke

This, just remove Keldon. That's our best balance barring a huge jump in 3% from Sochan.
Honestly, this should be a 9-man primary rotation.
Wemby & Fox should be near 35/mpg, Vassell/Castle over 30, Barnes/Harper/Sochan/Champ around 24, Luke @ 15, with Oly being 5th big and prolly the best shooter off the bench, and everyone else picking up minutes where they can

 

[ambchang]

I'll respond with deeper thoughts later... but I think Kelly O might surprise us with a larger role than we might be giving credit for right now.

I would agree with that. I expect KO to be a good complement to wemby in the front court with his shooting and passing. He’s a passable defender and rebounder as well. I think he fits well with wemby which is what any player on the roster should be measured against.

 

[ginobilized]

Fitting together Wemby, Fox, Castle, Harper, Champ, Kornet, Olynyk and Harper seems like a nice easy puzzle for the coaches for the most part. Sweeney's designation as an associate head coach might just be to give him the salary bump necessary to pry him from Dallas. It could also be that he is the defensive HC and Mitch is more the offensive mastermind. However it all shakes out, it will be fun to see how the coaching staff works together and how this functions with this team.

The systems and approaches the new coaching staff implements will be very telling. If there are significant changes and adaptation required, I give HB a strong advantage to remain a starter. He's a consummate pro. The lower IQ/versatility types (KJ/Sochan) may struggle. On the other side of that coin, if the new systems are adapted to those players, it might give them a chance to succeed or fail and clarify our future. Vassell is right on the edge of this in my view. Skilled enough and smart enough to adapt to some degree and/or have a role created for him. How the coaches deal with him seems vital. He's got to stop with the Kobe-lite shooter's tunnel vision.

I look forward to Scott's thoughts on KO. I see KO as a chaos-merchant on offense with his high-post passing skills and ability to maximize the open spaces on the court. He absolutely carved up the Spurs in a game last season and I remember thinking, he'd be a great addition. Voila!

 

[Arguendo]

I would agree with that. I expect KO to be a good complement to wemby in the front court with his shooting and passing. He’s a passable defender and rebounder as well. I think he fits well with wemby which is what any player on the roster should be measured against.

And one of the best corner shooter's in the league, around 50% over the past 3 seasons, 60% last yr. If he can play 65-70 games could be a huge addition, easy to see him being one of the two best shooters on the team.

 

[sfernald]

Sounds like he could be our next Zach Collins, I don't mean it in a good way. Hoping for the best.

I've seen enough KellO to say he's no Zach Collins, thank the GODS.

 

[sfernald]

Seemingly im more up on Sochan still than most on here. So I think he's the starter until his shooting goes to shit. I'm really rooting for him. This is his contract year. And healthy. No excuses!

 

[heyheymymy]

Basically doing interchangeable frameworks

PG, SG, SF

Fox, Castle, Champ
Harper, Vassell, Johnson
Castle, Harper, Vassell
Fox, Harper, Barnes
Castle, Vassell, Champ

C/PF

Wemby/Olynyk
Kornet/Barnes
Olynyk/Sochan
Wemby/Bryant

Etc mix and match combinations are nearly limitless

 

[JohnnyMoore]

Harper has an NBA body already at 19. Given his bloodlines & pedigree, I'd give him significant minutes at the 2, if not starting him. Once Harper shows he can play at NBA speed, I find a new home for Fox's $50,000,000.00 per year extension and go all out for a 4 that compliments Wemby.

 

[Exstatic]

Harper has an NBA body already at 19. Given his bloodlines & pedigree, I'd give him significant minutes at the 2, if not starting him. Once Harper shows he can play at NBA speed, I find a new home for Fox's $50,000,000.00 per year extension and go all out for a 4 that compliments Wemby.

This isn’t fantasy a league. They do that, they’ll ever get another FA or player wanting to come here. You trade him after 3 years, not sooner. Castle and Harper will both be cheap as chips that whole time. Besides, OKC preys on teams with limited initiators. We have 3, and that’s going to be a fucking problem for them, and much sooner than they want.