Player Sochan's Extension Watch

[elpimpo4cc]

Sorry I wasn’t very clear. I meant that I believe we can make the play-in if we give Carter a Bryant minutes. I actually believe we can fight for homecourt advantage if we start him.

hope you're right

 

[TR21]

Spurs should absolutely not offer this guy an extension. Ideally he'd be used as a filler in a KJ or Vassell deal. It's addition by subtraction plus whatever we trade for. Win win

 

[Neuromancer]

Sorry I wasn’t very clear. I meant that I believe we can make the play-in if we give Carter a Bryant minutes. I actually believe we can fight for homecourt advantage if we start him.

I like CB but there's zero chance that he is the difference between missing the playoffs and making the play in, let alone fighting for homecourt advantage. He has excellent tools but it's all theoretical at this point. If rookie Victor didn't impact our win total from the previous year I seriously doubt the 14th pick is gonna be a make or break player playoff wise

 

[poopbox]

Might be in the minority, but expectations are higher this year. Maybe last year i wouldnt have minded throwing a player in the deep end like this, but seeing how carter played in summer league, its highly likely spurs again dont make the play in leaning on the kid too much. This is not to say I dont see some very high potential in him in years to come. Here’s hoping im wrong and he competes w harper for rookie of the year.

I agree giving him minutes would be rough because he is very raw. But I don't think the Spurs reach the best versions of themselves in the long run without him doing the things I posted. Every second he doesn't play is just delaying the inevitable, so why wait?

 

[poopbox]

Yeah, I was thinking something along those lines for a long time (posted that at ST probably when Wemby got drafted). Definitely not making the play in will be pinned on Wemby, and used against him personally in individual accolades. It always plays a part, but I can see the big media being especially vicious with Wemby if Spurs fall short of the play in, some even pushing an agenda to drive him away from the Spurs. I wouldn't want that with extension negotiations looming on the horizon. I'd say:
1) making the play in should be the bare minimum for heads not to roll (unless major health issues happen, knock on wood)
2) making the playoffs via the play in (and developing the young core) should qualify as meeting expectations.
3) making the playoffs outright and presenting battle in the first round should qualify as a success.
More than that would be awesome.

We have a new head coach and new top assistants. I don't think their are any heads left to roll if we have a disappointing season, unless someone like Sweeney just moves on on his own.

 

[poopbox]

I would disagree. I dont see them getting the 5th or 6th spot, but getting in the playin-in is essential this year, atleast optically for the spurs’s ultimate priority, wemby. I can definitely see a narrative pushed questioning him as a generational talent or that spurs are the appropriate org to have him. Either would be bad news and is all the reason in the world not to play a green rookie heavy minutes.

I think it's possible primarily because there is going to be one team in the west that gets decimated by injuries causing them to be much worse than expected and the east is so bad this year that if healthy we could win something like 70% or more of our games against eastern conference teams.

Almost every season some team has a much better record than it should because some other team has a much worse record than they should. Spurs could be that team this year.

 

[Arguendo]

Might be in the minority, but expectations are higher this year. Maybe last year i wouldnt have minded throwing a player in the deep end like this, but seeing how carter played in summer league, its highly likely spurs again dont make the play in leaning on the kid too much. This is not to say I dont see some very high potential in him in years to come. Here’s hoping im wrong and he competes w harper for rookie of the year.

My feel is you are in the majority. Personally, I don't expect Carter to even have a shot a real minutes until after the AS break, or a trade/injury.
He was the 6th/7th man on a middling Arizona team last yr. Got tons of tools and I think he's at least a yr away from being a yr away. I expect him to get more extreme version of the Reed Sheppard treatment, lots of minutes in Austin for most of the yr, spot minutes with the big club down the stretch. If he's balling out, he'll have a shot at minutes but he'll really have to earn them. That's my expectation.

 

[Shmurs]

Bryant’s going off to Siberia to start the season, which is fine in theory. But in practice, he’s now part of one of the league’s worst player development pipelines. I don’t know what the path to becoming a reliable pro looks like for a guy on this team. Hasn’t been seen in a while. Certainly never with this iteration of coaches and FO.

 

[Arguendo]

Yeah, I was thinking something along those lines for a long time (posted that at ST probably when Wemby got drafted). Definitely not making the play in will be pinned on Wemby, and used against him personally in individual accolades. It always plays a part, but I can see the big media being especially vicious with Wemby if Spurs fall short of the play in, some even pushing an agenda to drive him away from the Spurs. I wouldn't want that with extension negotiations looming on the horizon. I'd say:
1) making the play in should be the bare minimum for heads not to roll (unless major health issues happen, knock on wood)
2) making the playoffs via the play in (and developing the young core) should qualify as meeting expectations.
3) making the playoffs outright and presenting battle in the first round should qualify as a success.
More than that would be awesome.

Agreed all-around, I just really can't see the org having heads roll regardless of performance.
But its definitely prove-it time. The talent is here even if the roster construction is sub-optimal, play-in is absolutely a reasonable expectation and should be a required result.

I blame on the lack of development for Sochan and Vassell (and Branham and Wes, etc) on the organization more than them. On not implementing any team concept or scheme. It worked to get Vic and some other real pieces thanks to a lot of luck. But that friendship crew has been fucking toxic to professionalism and accountability. They were teenagers/20ish trying to figure it out, relying on the GOAT coach who was also a legendary FO guy, Pop fucking failed, I don't think he cared. No more excuses, they're all real vets now. Be smart, be in control, play in your role, or ride the pine hard.

More than even wins this season, I want to see accountability. I haven't seen this organization have any accountability for on-court play/effort/decisions and off-court lack of professionalism/maturity in yrs. Kawhi was prolly the last time they tried, maybe that soured the milk. The minute Vassell goes dribble/dribble/dribble, call time-out to make a show of benching his ass, 5 seasons of that is more than enough. Sochan plays out-of-control and makes bone-head decisions or careless/reckless mistake, glue him to the bench, and let him watch a 33-34 year old show him his role. Time to flat out embarrass the clowns.

Bright side, I feel confident Vic and Castle and Fox (plus Champ and the vets Barnes/Kornet/Oly and even the deep guys that have fought to stay in the league) are actual professionals that actually want to win and are willing to simply play a role for the team/winning.

That said, IMO this will be the first time DV/JS play on a team with real expectations and with lots of vets who expect to win by simply dong what they're supposed to do, not more not less. Hopefully there's a real culture shift that impresses a change and real accountability on them for the first time.

 

[KobesAchilles]

I like CB but there's zero chance that he is the difference between missing the playoffs and making the play in, let alone fighting for homecourt advantage. He has excellent tools but it's all theoretical at this point. If rookie Victor didn't impact our win total from the previous year I seriously doubt the 14th pick is gonna be a make or break player playoff wise

We need a 3D wing. The players we have for that position are the following:

Sochan. Good D but way below average 3
Vassell. Good 3 but way below average D
KJ. Who provides no 3 and no D.

These players (imo) are set in stone this year as to what they are. Vassell won’t play good defense this year. Sochan won’t make enough 3s and KJ will just KJ

The way I look at it is that these players are shapes. The Spurs need squares. Vassell and Sochan are both triangles and and it’s kinda like a square. It has similarities. But at the end of the day they are half the player that we need. While Bryant is still a moldable shape and the faster we mold him to a square the better our team is for it.

 

[Arguendo]

Bryant’s going off to Siberia to start the season, which is fine in theory. But in practice, he’s now part of one of the league’s worst player development pipelines. I don’t know what the path to becoming a reliable pro looks like for a guy on this team. Hasn’t been seen in a while. Certainly never with this iteration of coaches and FO.

It was the worst with Pop at the helm not caring and not pushing for development.
This is Mitch's one shot to be an NBA HC and we bought in a bunch of quality assistants and vet presence. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach to how we develop moving forward. Lots has changed in the past 12-24 months, all of it looks for the better.

 

[Shmurs]

It’s pretty wild to think about what Jeremy’s career earnings will be vs what they would have been if he was drafted by the Heat or something.

The timeline where he has zero buzz around the league and may just get the QO and never cash in on a big payday was highly unlikely, even despite his limitations. But enter Pop, and you have his development ruined both on purpose with tanking and accidentally with Point Sochan. I guess you could feel a little bad for the guy at this point. He’s basically like one of those kids born into the Jonestown cult.

 

[Arguendo]

These players (imo) are set in stone this year as to what they are. Vassell won’t play good defense this year. Sochan won’t make enough 3s and KJ will just KJ

The way I look at it is that these players are shapes. The Spurs need squares. Vassell and Sochan are both triangles and and it’s kinda like a square. It has similarities. But at the end of the day they are half the player that we need. While Bryant is still a moldable shape and the faster we mold him to a square the better our team is for it.

Champ? Doesn't excel at either, but solid at both and the best combo of those 4.

Vassell is set in stone, for sure, he's also easily the most talented, could actually be a good 6th man not sure if he can play 4th/5th option though.
Sochan will have to get minutes (10-15 min) because someone must play big F and we only have Oly/Barnes.

But KJ? He can have a use as a bench scorer, if we even need that.
Champ just seems to be such a better player and fit with every single line-up, gonna be so frustrating if KJ is eating minutes from Champ and I just can't believe KJ is set in stone...please god no.
Champ is taller and longer and quicker, better shooter and better d-fender. Shit he's (arguably) both the best shooter and team d-fender of the entire bunch. He's also not small, he's much more of a wing than Vassell and much more of a small wing than KJ or Sochan. He's like the only natural small wing on the roster, he's the square here, no molding required.

Not even to mention, if Champ balls out he could have big trade value packaged with the Oly/Barnes expiring. He's so cheap, surely tons of teams would love to have an expiring + him at $3M next yr. That alone may be enough or close to get a real piece rotation piece that's a better fit.
Giving KJ minutes just offers nothing, no real on-court upside, no fit, no potential left, he only brings negatives. If he's "set in stone" the Spurs are not serious about winning or changing the culture IMO.

 

[Shmurs]

the spurs insider podcast is bad, but this last episode is actually a useful glimpse inside training camp.

Anyway, the state run media’s description of Jeremy is startling. These are guys who have always said he’s “important”. Like unquestionably a hidden gem that will have a big part in this team’s path to contention.

Now, they’re describing him as barely a role player who will just serve to eat minutes when the grown ups have to rest.

I guess that’s it. The whole “you don’t know ball if you don’t like him” era is probably over. And good on Mitch for doing the right thing here. These guys wouldn’t just be speculating on this. Sochan is every sniffer’s hobby horse. They have a line into this.

Gone by next year. More value as a chip than a backup 4.

 

[ambchang]

I just gotta say this is like step one to the inevitable "Carter sucks ass" camp, which is put unrealistic expectations on him.

Guys, Carter played 19 mins a game on Arizona last year, starting 5 of the 37 games. He averaged:
Pts/reb/ast/stl/blk/to/Foul
Raw stats - 6.5/4.1/1/0.9/1/1/2.3
Per 100 - 19.2/12.1/2.9/2.8/2.9/2.9/6.8
Rank on team - 6/3/6/3/2/3/6 (8-man rotation, over 500 mins for the entire season)
1st on team in DRtg and 5th in ORtg.

You know how does that compare to Sochan at Baylor? Very similar.
Pts/reb/ast/stl/blk/to/Foul
Raw stats - 9.2/6.4/1.8/1.3/0.7/1.6/2.3
Per 100 - 21.4/14.8/4.1/2.9/1.6/3.6/5.3
Rank on team - 6/2/4/4/3/6/6 (9-man rotation, but I included LJ Cryer, who played 492 minutes the entire season).
2nd on team in DRtg and 6th on ORtg.

Yes, shooting wise Carter is definitely ahead:
Carter had a 59.7% 3Pt Attempt Rate, making 37.1% of them with a 59.3TS%
Sochan had a 38.4 3Pt Attempt rate, making 29.6% of them with a 54.6 TS%

Totally different teams which is why I pulled the rank on team thing, but both in Big 12, so the level of competition is similar. Sochan also won the Freshman and 6MoY,

But at this point, and with the VERY limited views we had of Carter, the expectations of him is just absolutely unrealistic. the same thing happened to Keldon, Vassell and Sochan, starting with "Man this guy will be incredible/an all-star" to "Maybe he can be a role player one day if he accepts it" to "This guy is the worst player the Spurs ever had, total waste of a pick". Hilariously, the same somehow happened to Zollins (not even a Spurs pick), Tre Jones (2nd round pick), Blake and Malaki (25th and 20th picks, both were meant to be a swing).

Don't get me wrong, Kobe Vince got some very intriguing qualities, but let's be realistic.

 

[Arguendo]

I agree giving him minutes would be rough because he is very raw. But I don't think the Spurs reach the best versions of themselves in the long run without him doing the things I posted. Every second he doesn't play is just delaying the inevitable, so why wait?

The potential risk is he is simply not NBA ready mentally or physically and throwing him out there may retard or destroy his development. I don't know, hopefully the new assistants are worth their weight and do know.

What is am pretty confident of though, is it really doesn't take much production at all for say Champ + CB to outperform say Sochan + KJ pretty much across the board.

Everything I read pre and post draft, CB is a project today that is not ready for anything but spot NBA minutes, but think that was more physical and growing up in the deaf community may have him much more prepared mentally. No idea if that's true, but personally I'm much more concerned with 2/3/4 yrs from now, and I think Oly may answer a ton of our Sochan related questions, and if Oly does that the risk/reward on giving CB real minutes doesn't look favorable.

But also take your point, if CB is mentally ready, even if not physically, it probably is just delaying the inevitable and those 2/3/4 yrs may be much better by learning on the fly this season, just a matter of is he adding value (like by taking KJs minutes) or subtracting from maybe Oly or Champ who better serve the team.

I'm soooo ready to start getting some answers this season!!

 

[Thoodee]

I think a silver lining here is we have a new coach, and while we don’t know completely if he’s as conservative as pop, its guaranteed that if pop was still in charge, carter could have been the embodiment of kobe himself, and he’d still find himself probably getting garbage mintutes. Atleast with mitch there’s a chance if it clicks, his role may increase regardless of his seniority.

 

[scott]

Bryant’s going off to Siberia to start the season, which is fine in theory. But in practice, he’s now part of one of the league’s worst player development pipelines. I don’t know what the path to becoming a reliable pro looks like for a guy on this team. Hasn’t been seen in a while. Certainly never with this iteration of coaches and FO.

To be fair, our player development program really took a nosedive when we started giving rookies heavy rotation time (Vassell, Primo, Sochan, Branham, Wesley). Wemby and Steph are exceptions, but they are also Top 4 picks.

It worked a lot better when we were sending all of these guys to Austin for heavy G-League time. Maybe we'll see a return to that.

 

[scott]

KJ. Who provides no 3 and no D.

But Keldon shot 40% one season FOUR YEARS AGO

[/sniffer]

 

[spurraider21]

To be fair, our player development program really took a nosedive when we started giving rookies heavy rotation time (Vassell, Primo, Sochan, Branham, Wesley). Wemby and Steph are exceptions, but they are also Top 4 picks.

It worked a lot better when we were sending all of these guys to Austin for heavy G-League time. Maybe we'll see a return to that.

Kawhi jumped into rotation minutes right away as well... DeJuan Blair if you count that (a rookie getting real run on legit playoff contenders is impressive)

 

[scott]

the spurs insider podcast is bad, but this last episode is actually a useful glimpse inside training camp.

Anyway, the state run media’s description of Jeremy is startling. These are guys who have always said he’s “important”. Like unquestionably a hidden gem that will have a big part in this team’s path to contention.

Now, they’re describing him as barely a role player who will just serve to eat minutes when the grown ups have to rest.

I guess that’s it. The whole “you don’t know ball if you don’t like him” era is probably over. And good on Mitch for doing the right thing here. These guys wouldn’t just be speculating on this. Sochan is every sniffer’s hobby horse. They have a line into this.

Gone by next year. More value as a chip than a backup 4.

I refuse to listen to the Baghdad Bob show, but appreciate you doing it for us. This is both confirmation of just how much these guys are very much "state run" but also great to hear that the organization sees the obvious about Sochan.

 

[scott]

Kawhi jumped into rotation minutes right away as well... DeJuan Blair if you count that (a rookie getting real run on legit playoff contenders is impressive)

I'm thinking more of the Dejounte/Derrick/Lonnie/Keldon era where all of those guys spent some considerable time in Austin and 3 of the 4 (the 3 #29 overall picks, ironically enough) and developed ahead of median outcomes for their pick range (and frankly, Lonnie probably was right on par or even above median outcome for a #18 pick)

 

[spurraider21]

the shit at 1:25 is one of those glaring examples of Sochan lacking the awareness to make the obvious play and bogging offense down. you dont get the "connective" label unless you are capable of making easy reads like this

 

[Neuromancer]

We need a 3D wing. The players we have for that position are the following:

Sochan. Good D but way below average 3
Vassell. Good 3 but way below average D
KJ. Who provides no 3 and no D.

These players (imo) are set in stone this year as to what they are. Vassell won’t play good defense this year. Sochan won’t make enough 3s and KJ will just KJ

The way I look at it is that these players are shapes. The Spurs need squares. Vassell and Sochan are both triangles and and it’s kinda like a square. It has similarities. But at the end of the day they are half the player that we need. While Bryant is still a moldable shape and the faster we mold him to a square the better our team is for it.

I mean I agree with you, our wing rotation is trash and Bryant in theory provides exactly what this team needs. But he looked pretty damn raw in Summer League, so his skills are all theoretical at this point (minus the defense). He's a rookie and the team overall is young/inexperienced, so unless he steps onto the court and is immediately 2012 Kawhi Leonard, I don't see him raising the ceiling of the team much at all. I also don't trust Mitch to give him significant minutes for awhile. Our team's success this season comes down to Vic/Fox and and whether Castle is the real deal or just the ROTY in a historically weak draft, imo

 

[Shmurs]

the shit at 1:25 is one of those glaring examples of Sochan lacking the awareness to make the obvious play and bogging offense down. you dont get the "connective" label unless you are capable of making easy reads like this

This is the lord’s work. I posted something similar last week of him trying to steal a lob from Vic. There are so many clips like this where he has no clue what’s happening.

And jeeeesus. I thought this was his rookie year for a sec. Nope.