Draft Atlanta Hawks Pick-Swap Watch Thread

Will the 2026 Hawks Swap Convey?

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Scoring 150 and somehow still losing is like the quintessential game by Trae.
 
we've been focusing a lot of how the hawks have been doing but an underrated aspect of this is how well we are doing in the standings. our natural pick currently projects to be all the way at #28, so even if ATL pick only hovers around 14, thats a pretty big leap for us as of now

i think we probably end up #4-5 in the west when the dust settles and we go through the upcoming rough patch of the schedule, but still, if the swap bumps us up something like 10 spots, thats awesome. i was pretty bearish on the swap conveying at all coming in
 
spurraider21 said:
we've been focusing a lot of how the hawks have been doing but an underrated aspect of this is how well we are doing in the standings. our natural pick currently projects to be all the way at #28, so even if ATL pick only hovers around 14, thats a pretty big leap for us as of now

i think we probably end up #4-5 in the west when the dust settles and we go through the upcoming rough patch of the schedule, but still, if the swap bumps us up something like 10 spots, thats awesome. i was pretty bearish on the swap conveying at all coming in
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Barring another Wemby's injury, it is shaping up to be a nice pick swap after all. I remember we discussed this point with @scott in the ST thread: if you're a GM, when you make a pick swap in a trade, the assumption and essence of the transaction is that you are going to be better than the team you're exchanging pick(s) with down the road. So far, the Spurs have held their end of the bargain; they even swept the Hawks in 2 consecutive seasons. The bottom of the East being so crappy is something that is out of our control. (though we lucked with Celtics, Philly, Raptors and even Miami being better than projected)
 
Watching that replay Young looked like he had his man and help beat could have taken another dribble and step for an easier uncontested bucket. Why he shot that weird looking shot was stupid.
 
the annoying one is the Clippers pick going to OKC, it could end up being a top3 with a potential for a superstar
 
spurraider21 said:
we've been focusing a lot of how the hawks have been doing but an underrated aspect of this is how well we are doing in the standings. our natural pick currently projects to be all the way at #28, so even if ATL pick only hovers around 14, thats a pretty big leap for us as of now

i think we probably end up #4-5 in the west when the dust settles and we go through the upcoming rough patch of the schedule, but still, if the swap bumps us up something like 10 spots, thats awesome. i was pretty bearish on the swap conveying at all coming in
Click to expand...
Good call.

There was an empirical evaluation done a number of years ago and found that the average swap value ends up being just a few spots of a jump, worth the equivalent of an early SRP in terms of "value" (meaning, the cost it would take to trade up the number of spots the average swap conveys at is an early SRP).

Going from the 20s to the teens would be huge.
 
frenchfred said:
the annoying one is the Clippers pick going to OKC, it could end up being a top3 with a potential for a superstar
Click to expand...

The Clips have too much talent to be this shitty, but who knows. The East has a few teams who want to remain in the basement and will ensure they stay there. The West only has Utah, who should start tanking soon. Portland may get the picture, but they're still playing hard. I don't expect a full tank.

New Orleans doesn't own their pick and might be turning things around. Sacramento is terrible but sort of playing hard. Memphis has turned it around. Dallas looks better.

If the LAC were in the east, I'd almost expect them to rise up into the play-in. The problem in the west is that only Sacramento (if they clue in) and Utah have incentive to truly bottom out. Maybe Dallas gets the memo, too.

In the end, I think the Clippers will be worst case scenario like 7, 8, or 9th worst in combined standings. This gives OKC something like a 25% or so chance for a top four pick, which is pretty good but not the best. They'll get a good player regardless, and will have Topic and Sorber too next year.
 
Some of these rolls are giving me false hope where Spurs jump while OKC plus ATL falls. but there are so many forbidden draft orders where very terrible things occur. And there are so many different paths to that horror. ATL and OKC both have multiple paths to get up. It's a minefield.
 
If the Spurs and OKC jump into the top 4 that will cement them as the biggest rivalry in the NBA for the next decade.
 
Interesting hypothetical: would you take the Spurs getting a top 3 pick in this years draft if it also meant that OKC and ATL also get a top 3 pick? You have to say yes but its interesting to think about
 
PocketMonger said:
Interesting hypothetical: would you take the Spurs getting a top 3 pick in this years draft if it also meant that OKC and ATL also get a top 3 pick? You have to say yes but its interesting to think about
Click to expand...
absolutely. for okc its about extending their window. they already have the talent. for the spurs we have holes to address.
 
Every loss is a step closer to Hawks dumping Trae and playing for future assets. Despite his defensive challenges, that does lower the ceiling of this Hawks team as I don't think anyone looking to add Trae at the deadline will be dumping today ready talent. Will help for our 26 swap and 27 outright even if Hawks luck into a top lotto pick.

Also, Pelicans are picking up the pace... I would not be surprised at all if they fall to the 7-10th pick range as the number of tanking teams will increase post all star break.
 
PocketMonger said:
Interesting hypothetical: would you take the Spurs getting a top 3 pick in this years draft if it also meant that OKC and ATL also get a top 3 pick? You have to say yes but its interesting to think about
Click to expand...
In that case, I would also want Utah to jump in to keep that other pick away from OKC.
 
PocketMonger said:
Interesting hypothetical: would you take the Spurs getting a top 3 pick in this years draft if it also meant that OKC and ATL also get a top 3 pick? You have to say yes but its interesting to think about
Click to expand...
It's a no brainer. As it is, Atlanta's picks look like mid to late teens, even if the second one would result in worst case scenario,
top 3 pick + late first >>> 2 mid to late teens. As for OKC, right now they're much better positioned to get a top pick than the Spurs, both getting top 3 picks would put them on equal footing while distancing them from every other team, it's definitely better than the alternative.
 
After starting the season 3-27, Pelicans suddenly find themselves on a 5-game winning streak after defeating the Mavericks at home. They now have more wins than the Clippers and Kings. Hope they keep this winning streak rolling tbh.
 
Hotspur said:
After starting the season 3-27, Pelicans suddenly find themselves on a 5-game winning streak after defeating the Mavericks at home. They now have more wins than the Clippers and Kings. Hope they keep this winning streak rolling tbh.
Click to expand...
And crazy enough only 6 games back in the loss column from the Play-In.

Go Pels Go (except when we play them for the last time in on Jan 25)
 
I’ve always liked Queen and their rookie PG is surprisingly good as well. The Pelicans aren’t as lost as they looked earlier in the season.
 
couchman said:
I’ve always liked Queen and their rookie PG is surprisingly good as well. The Pelicans aren’t as lost as they looked earlier in the season.
Click to expand...
teams have been getting healthier, and it shows
 
Let's trust that bald head 👽 will not allow OKC to get the top 4 pick from LAC.
 
Hotspur said:
After starting the season 3-27, Pelicans suddenly find themselves on a 5-game winning streak after defeating the Mavericks at home. They now have more wins than the Clippers and Kings. Hope they keep this winning streak rolling tbh.
Click to expand...
The Saddiq Bey effect. Borrego has found the right starting line up and has Zion coming off the bench
 
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