Analysis Spurs draft assets, cap situation and future projections

guess we can use this thread to monitor Atlanta as well. as we all know, we have an unprotected pick swap from them this year.

the hawks are projected to be pretty solid though, and their win total o/u is higher than ours. helps that they play in a weaker eastern conference with some of its regular top dogs being neutered this year (celtics, pacers, bucks)
 
ATL was getting their shit pushed by TOR early, but they've made a game of it here before halftime.

Interestingly, TOR has become a media favorite dark horse for Top 6 in the East.
 
scott said:
ATL was getting their shit pushed by TOR early, but they've made a game of it here before halftime.

Interestingly, TOR has become a media favorite dark horse for Top 6 in the East.
Click to expand...
nobody is quite sure how Toronto's roster works, but they have a lot of solid to good players
 
spurraider21 said:
nobody is quite sure how Toronto's roster works, but they have a lot of solid to good players
Click to expand...
They're like a complete roster of Mid.

No obvious superstar, but just a bunch of solid guys. If there is a team in need of a consolidation trade for a star, it's them. Always thought they'd be a sneaky Giannis destination.
 
Since raw numbers are a hindrance to understanding the evolution of cap sheets, I thought it'd be helpful to provide a simplified outlook into the Spurs financial future in terms of percentages of the cap. Given we're most interested in exploring the viability of keeping the core long term if things go well, I projected rookie extensions at reasonable values assuming optimistic scenarios (Wemby 30% as he's probably DPOY, Harper and Castle at 25%, Carter Bryant at 15% as a Toumani Camara level 3&D). Anyways, without further ado here is a general overview of the Spurs financial outlook:

Player / Year1 (‘25-’26)2 (‘26-’27)3 (‘27-’28)4 (‘28-’29)5 (‘29-’30)
Wemby​
8.6 %​
10.2 %​
30.0 %​
30.0 %​
30.0 %​
Fox​
24.0 %​
30.0 %​
30.9 %​
31.6 %​
32.1 %​
Castle​
6.2 %​
6.0 %​
7.3 %​
25.0 %​
25.0 %​
Harper​
8.0 %​
7.8 %​
7.5 %​
9.0 %​
25.0 %​
Bryant​
3.2 %​
3.1 %​
3.0 %​
4.2 %​
15.0 %​
Vassell​
17.0 %​
15.0 %​
13.0 %​
13.0 %​
---​
Kornet​
7.1 %​
6.3 %​
5.7 %​
5.1 %​
---​
Champagnie​
1.9 %​
1.8 %​
---​
---​
---​
Keldon​
11.3 %​
10.3 %​
---​
---​
---​
Sochan​
6.2 %​
---​
---​
---​
---​
Barnes​
12.3 %​
---​
---​
---​
---​
Olynyk​
8.7 %​
---​
---​
---​
---​
Waters​
1.5 %​
---​
---​
---​
---​
McLaughlin​
1.5 %​
---​
---​
---​
---​
Biyombo​
1.5 %​
---​
---​
---​
---​
min. Roster fill​
---​
7.4 %​
10.4 %​
10.4 %​
13.4 %​
TOTAL​
119.0 %​
97.9 %​
107.8 %​
128.3 %​
140.5 %​

For reference, as a percentage of the cap:
  • luxury tax threshold: 121.5%
  • 1st apron: 126.7%
  • 2nd apron: 134.4%
  • 1 year vet min for roster filling: 1.5%
Bare in mind these are broad strokes, but the inevitable conclusion is that (unless they make some moves earlier) Spurs are running into trouble in years 4 and 5. That is what leads me to believe Fox is unlikely to be a Spur by then if Harper and Castle live up to expectations, that 32% of the cap he'd be making would be better allocated into a few higher level role players, rather than relying on bottom of the barrel vet mins to fill out the roster.
 
Ariel said:
Since raw numbers are a hindrance to understanding the evolution of cap sheets, I thought it'd be helpful to provide a simplified outlook into the Spurs financial future in terms of percentages of the cap. Given we're most interested in exploring the viability of keeping the core long term if things go well, I projected rookie extensions at reasonable values assuming optimistic scenarios (Wemby 30% as he's probably DPOY, Harper and Castle at 25%, Carter Bryant at 15% as a Toumani Camara level 3&D). Anyways, without further ado here is a general overview of the Spurs financial outlook:

Player / Year1 (‘25-’26)2 (‘26-’27)3 (‘27-’28)4 (‘28-’29)5 (‘29-’30)
Wemby​
8.6 %​
10.2 %​
30.0 %​
30.0 %​
30.0 %​
Fox​
24.0 %​
30.0 %​
30.9 %​
31.6 %​
32.1 %​
Castle​
6.2 %​
6.0 %​
7.3 %​
25.0 %​
25.0 %​
Harper​
8.0 %​
7.8 %​
7.5 %​
9.0 %​
25.0 %​
Bryant​
3.2 %​
3.1 %​
3.0 %​
4.2 %​
15.0 %​
Vassell​
17.0 %​
15.0 %​
13.0 %​
13.0 %​
---​
Kornet​
7.1 %​
6.3 %​
5.7 %​
5.1 %​
---​
Champagnie​
1.9 %​
1.8 %​
---​
---​
---​
Keldon​
11.3 %​
10.3 %​
---​
---​
---​
Sochan​
6.2 %​
---​
---​
---​
---​
Barnes​
12.3 %​
---​
---​
---​
---​
Olynyk​
8.7 %​
---​
---​
---​
---​
Waters​
1.5 %​
---​
---​
---​
---​
McLaughlin​
1.5 %​
---​
---​
---​
---​
Biyombo​
1.5 %​
---​
---​
---​
---​
min. Roster fill​
---​
7.4 %​
10.4 %​
10.4 %​
13.4 %​
TOTAL​
119.0 %​
97.9 %​
107.8 %​
128.3 %​
140.5 %​

For reference, as a percentage of the cap:
  • luxury tax threshold: 121.5%
  • 1st apron: 126.7%
  • 2nd apron: 134.4%
  • 1 year vet min for roster filling: 1.5%
Bare in mind these are broad strokes, but the inevitable conclusion is that (unless they make some moves earlier) Spurs are running into trouble in years 4 and 5. That is what leads me to believe Fox is unlikely to be a Spur by then if Harper and Castle live up to expectations, that 32% of the cap he'd be making would be better allocated into a few higher level role players, rather than relying on bottom of the barrel vet mins to fill out the roster.
Click to expand...
What percentage of the cap did Fox take up when he was on his first extension after his rookie contract with the Kings?
 
spurraider21 said:
probably 25% as a regular max rookie extension withotu rose rule stuff
Click to expand...
I believe so, 25% if the max rookie extension unless all NBA or DPOY in the season preceeding the extension (or 2 out of 3 prior seasons). For practical purposes, unless Harper or Castle make all NBA they'd be making 25% of the cap at most.
 
OK Computer said:
Would be nice for Wemby to take a wink wink deal under the table…
Click to expand...
Please no, they'd be waiting in line to bring down the hammer on the Spurs, owners aren't Ballmer level rich / influential, and vultures would be flying circles around the Spurs to tear them apart and scavenge the leftovers.
 
Ariel said:
Please no, they'd be waiting in line to bring down the hammer on the Spurs, owners aren't Ballmer level rich / influential, and vultures would be flying circles around the Spurs to tear them apart and scavenge the leftovers.
Click to expand...
I know, but damn I just want to hoard all the players I like
 
Thanks @Ariel - always handy to look at it from a % of the cap POV.

It reinforces the opinion I previously had, that we face two critical forks in the road:

  1. We will need to move off of Vassell and use his $27MM to fill multiple roster spots and not just one. Even if I like the way Vassell is playing now, he's a 4th/5th option being paid like a 2nd/3rd. Just not workable in the long term, and I think it becomes a problem as early as Wemby's 5th year (when Devin has two years left).
  2. We will need to move off someone (most likely Fox) the year Castle's extension kicks in (when Fox has two years left).
It might be completely by design that these guys need to be moved with two years left. Maybe that is the calculus that Brian Wright has done where he feels they are most valuable in a trade. I can easily buy into that logic.

I'll also caveat that while it makes sense to model both Castle and Harper as 25% max players, they may find it difficult to actually get those contracts. I don't think rookie maxes aren't usually handed out based on potential (like some other rookie extensions). You have to earn them (someone, please point to examples if I'm wrong). I've been beating this horse to a bloody pulp, but I think it will be hard for the 3rd and 4th guy on any roster to earn a max behind two guys already on 30% maxes.

It's not a HUGE difference, but Castle and Harper on 20-22% instead of 25% is still significant.
 
Vassell is going to have to play well to be moved without us having to part with draft capital attached to him. even if he were traded after the season ends, the club taking him on would be making a ~3/80 commitment to him
 
scott said:
Thanks @Ariel - always handy to look at it from a % of the cap POV.

It reinforces the opinion I previously had, that we face two critical forks in the road:

  1. We will need to move off of Vassell and use his $27MM to fill multiple roster spots and not just one. Even if I like the way Vassell is playing now, he's a 4th/5th option being paid like a 2nd/3rd. Just not workable in the long term, and I think it becomes a problem as early as Wemby's 5th year (when Devin has two years left).
  2. We will need to move off someone (most likely Fox) the year Castle's extension kicks in (when Fox has two years left).
It might be completely by design that these guys need to be moved with two years left. Maybe that is the calculus that Brian Wright has done where he feels they are most valuable in a trade. I can easily buy into that logic.

I'll also caveat that while it makes sense to model both Castle and Harper as 25% max players, they may find it difficult to actually get those contracts. I don't think rookie maxes aren't usually handed out based on potential (like some other rookie extensions). You have to earn them (someone, please point to examples if I'm wrong). I've been beating this horse to a bloody pulp, but I think it will be hard for the 3rd and 4th guy on any roster to earn a max behind two guys already on 30% maxes.

It's not a HUGE difference, but Castle and Harper on 20-22% instead of 25% is still significant.
Click to expand...
By year 3, Vassell is at 13% of the cap. Is that still being paid like a 2nd or 3rd option?
 
Everyone drools over OKC’s cap sheet, but Hartenstein is making Vassell money, and is probably lower on their totem pole.

In 29-30, their cap sheet is $173M with only 3 players. lol
 
Too much sweat and tears shed over Vassell to me. The big issue will be Fox in a couple of years, what to do with keeping him or moving on. Otherwise the sheet looks pretty good. Yeah you don't want to pay KJ or DV quite as much but they're not long term weights.
 
bozhemoi said:
Too much sweat and tears shed over Vassell to me. The big issue will be Fox in a couple of years, what to do with keeping him or moving on. Otherwise the sheet looks pretty good. Yeah you don't want to pay KJ or DV quite as much but they're not long term weights.
Click to expand...
Fox has to go, eventually. I’ve heard people wanting to move him at the deadline or next summer, but that a bad look for the Spurs. My sweet spot is 2028. He will have been here 3 1/2 seasons, have two seasons left on this extension, and clear both cap space and minutes for Harper the next summer.
 
OK Computer said:
By year 3, Vassell is at 13% of the cap. Is that still being paid like a 2nd or 3rd option?
Click to expand...
It's still the rough equivalent of two MLE players. We are just going to run into a situation where we can have Vassell plus some vet minimum guys, or we can turn Vassell into two higher level players.

I'll go back to my Haywood Highsmith example. Vassell is clearly a better all around player... but for what we need out of that role, Highsmith at $6MM is probably better than Vassell at $27MM.
 
Exstatic said:
Everyone drools over OKC’s cap sheet, but Hartenstein is making Vassell money, and is probably lower on their totem pole.

In 29-30, their cap sheet is $173M with only 3 players. lol
Click to expand...
Hartenstein is expiring this year, the year right before OKC has max contracts kicking in. If Vassell's were expiring next year, before Wemby's max kicked in, it wouldn't be a problem at all. That's the difference.
 
OK Computer said:
By year 3, Vassell is at 13% of the cap. Is that still being paid like a 2nd or 3rd option?
Click to expand...
It's still more than better players were recently signed for, like Dyson Daniels, Toumani Camara, Aaron Nesmith, Herb Jones, PJ Washington, etc. So no, 13% isn't really 3rd option, but if he's your 7th or 8th man it's still a bad deal whose implications may give you second thoughts on using your exceptions in free agency, or trading for other players. So if he's not a clear cut starter he should be moved sooner rather than later, especially for fear of his trade value tanking even more.
 
scott said:
Hartenstein is expiring this year, the year right before OKC has max contracts kicking in. If Vassell's were expiring next year, before Wemby's max kicked in, it wouldn't be a problem at all. That's the difference.
Click to expand...
You think they’re going to pass on his team option for 26-27?
 
scott said:
Thanks @Ariel - always handy to look at it from a % of the cap POV.

It reinforces the opinion I previously had, that we face two critical forks in the road:

  1. We will need to move off of Vassell and use his $27MM to fill multiple roster spots and not just one. Even if I like the way Vassell is playing now, he's a 4th/5th option being paid like a 2nd/3rd. Just not workable in the long term, and I think it becomes a problem as early as Wemby's 5th year (when Devin has two years left).
  2. We will need to move off someone (most likely Fox) the year Castle's extension kicks in (when Fox has two years left).
It might be completely by design that these guys need to be moved with two years left. Maybe that is the calculus that Brian Wright has done where he feels they are most valuable in a trade. I can easily buy into that logic.

I'll also caveat that while it makes sense to model both Castle and Harper as 25% max players, they may find it difficult to actually get those contracts. I don't think rookie maxes aren't usually handed out based on potential (like some other rookie extensions). You have to earn them (someone, please point to examples if I'm wrong). I've been beating this horse to a bloody pulp, but I think it will be hard for the 3rd and 4th guy on any roster to earn a max behind two guys already on 30% maxes.

It's not a HUGE difference, but Castle and Harper on 20-22% instead of 25% is still significant.
Click to expand...
Moving Vassell I agree would be necessary, but he's out of the picture in year 5 and even in year 4 it's Fox that is killing you. By then he'll be 32, and I have a hard time picturing him being as efficient given his athletically reliant profile, and having him on the books for 32% of the cap is unlikely to help you sell Harper and Castle on taking a paycut, though it can definitely happen (see Sengun, Jalen Johnson, etc). Fox would need to be traded before his decline is evident, by then you're stuck with him and will likely be very costly in Wemby's projected prime. This is why I give him 2/3 years with the team at most.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top