Draft 2026 NBA Draft Prospects Thread

Do we trade away our pick or draft a player?

  • Draft

    Votes: 32 86.5%

  • Trade

    Votes: 3 8.1%

  • Cash Considerations

    Votes: 2 5.4%
  • Total voters
    37
BatManu20 said:
B-Wright's got nothing better to do since we're not making any trades before the deadline tbh
Click to expand...
He's trying to figure out who the Spurs should draft with the #1 pick after they get eliminated in the play-in :st-stirthepot:
 
Realistically speaking, what are peoples' assessments of Castle and Harper's ability to shoot in the future? For reference, Jrue Holiday in his 20s topped out as a 35% shooter on 5.7 attempts per game in his age 29 season. Jalen Suggs had 1 season shooting close to 40% and has been around 31% every other year. Fox has had 1 season shooting 37% on 8 attempts in his age 26 season, outside of that before this season he's been low 30s. Looking at these comparisons, is it likely to expect both Harper and Castle to achieve 35% shooting on 6-7 attempts in the next 4 years when they'll be 24 and 25 respectively?

And if you take these two and Fox to be your backcourt for the next 4 years, where two are going to be on the court at any given time, does it make sense to overindex on shooting at the 3 and 4 and give up some size and rebounding? This is why Champagnie's development this year has been critical and he needs to be retained if at all possible. This is also why Carter Bryant's development is critical - he had all the shooting signals coming in - shot 36% on 8 3PA/100, FT were low in college but was shooting high 70's on a much larger sample size in high school indicating that he has a shot at becoming a good high volume shooter.

This is why I worry some about taking guys who seemed like they made sense previously - Yaxel, Karim Lopez, Cenac, Ament, Haugh, Tounde, even though I like a lot of these guys. These are not guys who profile as high volume shooters who can compensate for lack of guard gravity. On a normal team with at least 1 +shooter in the backcourt any of these guys would work fine, but this works less well Castle/Harper/Fox backcourt, specifically in the next 3-4 years. Guys like PJ Washington/Okongwu, while decent shooters for position, are probably not going to cut it at the 4. Then when Wemby goes to the bench, if you have Kornet out there who doesn't shoot 3s, that's 3 negative spacers relative to position. If you look at the best shooting wings in the draft, most guys like Karaban, Momcilovic, Pryce Sandfort basically don't offer any ancillary skills aside from high volume shooting and so might only be good in a bit context.

Then you look at shooting wings who offer other skills - high volume 3PA, decent FTR/rim attempts indicating the ability to get to the rim when they're closed out, BLK/STL%, rebounding, passing ability, and you get:

Keaton Wagler
Cam Carr
Braylon Mullins
Isaiah Evans
Paul McNeil

Mullins and McNeil are slight shooting guards who can't get to the rim
Wagler would be awesome, but he's trending to a top 6-8 pick and is going to be out of the Spurs range
I'm not sure how Evans has been this year, but last year he literally didn't offer anything except shooting

This is why I'm starting to trend back to Cam Carr. The combine measurements are going to be huge for him - ESPN lists him at 175 lbs, Baylor lists him at 190. 175 puts him in Rob Dillingham weight and that's a non-starter for me. 190 with the potential to increase to 200 is wing territory and palatable to me, especially if he measures out 6'6 in shoes with a 7'1 wingspan as has been widely rumored. He offers secondary rim protection and some rebounding due his high level vertical pop, he shoots 40+ percent on contested and uncontested catch and shoots, his confidence is sky high, he takes and hits some very deep 3s, and he gets to the line often. I'm not looking for him to play the 4, but rather the 3 with Champ/Bryant manning the 4 while we have a minus shooting backcourt. I really hate overindexing on shooting, but I feel like if you truly believe in Castle/Harper as the backcourt of the future this is probably the way the team has to go.

For defending big forwards of the future (Randle/Gordon/Boozer/Scottie Barnes etc), see if you can grab Morez Johnson in the early second round to do his best Okongwu/Beef Stew cosplay for the future and replace Harrison Ingram. Yaxel would really be ideal here but there's no way he lasts until the second round unless you can trade the Hawks pick for 2 mid-firsts. Morez is putting up similar numbers at age 20 as Okongwu at 19, his FT% is up to 80% this year and he's shooting 40% from 3 on very low volume with good percentages from midrange so the shot is something that might come around in the future.

Finally, go get Krivas with a third second rounder to be your third big, he's 7'2", he anchors Arizona's defense, and he's shooting like 80% from FT so he should be serviceable. I'd normally say something like Ivisic for his shooting but I stopped taking him seriously as a prospect last year when CMB looked like Shaq vs Shawn Bradley against him last year.
 
SpursBills said:
Realistically speaking, what are peoples' assessments of Castle and Harper's ability to shoot in the future? For reference, Jrue Holiday in his 20s topped out as a 35% shooter on 5.7 attempts per game in his age 29 season. Jalen Suggs had 1 season shooting close to 40% and has been around 31% every other year. Fox has had 1 season shooting 37% on 8 attempts in his age 26 season, outside of that before this season he's been low 30s. Looking at these comparisons, is it likely to expect both Harper and Castle to achieve 35% shooting on 6-7 attempts in the next 4 years when they'll be 24 and 25 respectively?

And if you take these two and Fox to be your backcourt for the next 4 years, where two are going to be on the court at any given time, does it make sense to overindex on shooting at the 3 and 4 and give up some size and rebounding? This is why Champagnie's development this year has been critical and he needs to be retained if at all possible. This is also why Carter Bryant's development is critical - he had all the shooting signals coming in - shot 36% on 8 3PA/100, FT were low in college but was shooting high 70's on a much larger sample size in high school indicating that he has a shot at becoming a good high volume shooter.

This is why I worry some about taking guys who seemed like they made sense previously - Yaxel, Karim Lopez, Cenac, Ament, Haugh, Tounde, even though I like a lot of these guys. These are not guys who profile as high volume shooters who can compensate for lack of guard gravity. On a normal team with at least 1 +shooter in the backcourt any of these guys would work fine, but this works less well Castle/Harper/Fox backcourt, specifically in the next 3-4 years. Guys like PJ Washington/Okongwu, while decent shooters for position, are probably not going to cut it at the 4. Then when Wemby goes to the bench, if you have Kornet out there who doesn't shoot 3s, that's 3 negative spacers relative to position. If you look at the best shooting wings in the draft, most guys like Karaban, Momcilovic, Pryce Sandfort basically don't offer any ancillary skills aside from high volume shooting and so might only be good in a bit context.

Then you look at shooting wings who offer other skills - high volume 3PA, decent FTR/rim attempts indicating the ability to get to the rim when they're closed out, BLK/STL%, rebounding, passing ability, and you get:

Keaton Wagler
Cam Carr
Braylon Mullins
Isaiah Evans
Paul McNeil

Mullins and McNeil are slight shooting guards who can't get to the rim
Wagler would be awesome, but he's trending to a top 6-8 pick and is going to be out of the Spurs range
I'm not sure how Evans has been this year, but last year he literally didn't offer anything except shooting

This is why I'm starting to trend back to Cam Carr. The combine measurements are going to be huge for him - ESPN lists him at 175 lbs, Baylor lists him at 190. 175 puts him in Rob Dillingham weight and that's a non-starter for me. 190 with the potential to increase to 200 is wing territory and palatable to me, especially if he measures out 6'6 in shoes with a 7'1 wingspan as has been widely rumored. He offers secondary rim protection and some rebounding due his high level vertical pop, he shoots 40+ percent on contested and uncontested catch and shoots, his confidence is sky high, he takes and hits some very deep 3s, and he gets to the line often. I'm not looking for him to play the 4, but rather the 3 with Champ/Bryant manning the 4 while we have a minus shooting backcourt. I really hate overindexing on shooting, but I feel like if you truly believe in Castle/Harper as the backcourt of the future this is probably the way the team has to go.

For defending big forwards of the future (Randle/Gordon/Boozer/Scottie Barnes etc), see if you can grab Morez Johnson in the early second round to do his best Okongwu/Beef Stew cosplay for the future and replace Harrison Ingram. Yaxel would really be ideal here but there's no way he lasts until the second round unless you can trade the Hawks pick for 2 mid-firsts. Morez is putting up similar numbers at age 20 as Okongwu at 19, his FT% is up to 80% this year and he's shooting 40% from 3 on very low volume with good percentages from midrange so the shot is something that might come around in the future.

Finally, go get Krivas with a third second rounder to be your third big, he's 7'2", he anchors Arizona's defense, and he's shooting like 80% from FT so he should be serviceable. I'd normally say something like Ivisic for his shooting but I stopped taking him seriously as a prospect last year when CMB looked like Shaq vs Shawn Bradley against him last year.
Click to expand...
Between Harper and Castle I see Harper being the better shooter long term, but not a great one. I really don't see how they can play together unless your 3 and 4 are knockdown 3D guys and one of them can rebound. It seems like we need to choose one of them sooner rather than later because they both have skills that will command max money, but don't fit together.
 
@SpursBills

I agree with you that there isn't an obvious fit projected between #10 and #20 for Spurs at that early stage of the draft. It might be different in 3 months but that's the current situation.

Some additional points:

- It's looking more and more like Spurs might be headed into trading Fox this summer.
First, Harper and Castle confirms being great prospects who will be soon high quality starters.
Second, despite their efforts, Fox/Castle/Harper are struggling to fit together.
If Fox is traded, drafting a guard who is a great shooter becomes a good option.

- Spurs might just trade the pick for either future pick(s) or a player. It is what they did when they didn't like available players at #8 in 2024.

- If Spurs draft a raw and young high ceiling player, there are no immediate fit issues because it will take a couple of years for that player to be ready. Castle/Harper might have improved their shot by that time, Kornet and Vassell might be gone... A player who isn't a good fit with Spurs in 2026/2027 might turn into a good one in 2028/2029.
 
Can I interest anyone in a 6'6" guard from UCONN? Braylon Mullins is going to be a star in the NBA.

 
Exstatic said:
He’ll be a high level 3&D, but nothing more. He doesn’t rebound, assist, or get to the line.
Click to expand...
Which is useful here, but less so than a PF or SF who can shoot and rebound. That puts him on the board, but not at the top.
 
Karim Lopez standing beside 6'8 (in shoes) listed Carmelo Anthony. Kid has definitely grown in the past few months.

IMG_3698.jpg


Screenshot-2026-02-03-at-10-29-51-AM.png
 
Lopez will go top 10. And some team will think twice if they pick Wilson instead of Lopez.
 
id been on team AJD for a while now, but Vecenie made a good observation that tracks with what ive seen. he never seems to blow by guys. he's very athletic/physical, can initiate and score through contact, use his strength to get some separation for a pull-up, etc, but he's never just outright getting by his guy for a layup
 
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