Draft NBA Draft 2026 (Prospect) - A.J. Dybantsa killing in BYU. Previously wanted Spurs to draft him in 2026

[Ariel]

Yep, I knew it was something like that. Do they put the balls back in after each round? Hard to say if landing that 3/11 would have changed the outcome of pick #2.

Yup, 14 balls and they draw 4 each time, since permutations are not considered you have 1001 combinations (14 * 13 * 12 * 11 / 4! = 1001), 1 null (draw again) and 1000 allotted to teams according to odds.
So they first determine #1 pick (draw 4 balls and winning combo gets the pick), then balls are returned and they determine pick #2 (if winner corresponds to a previous pick they draw again) and so on.

Anyway, this is what happened in 2025: https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=305142&p=11247429#post11247429

Yeah, I ran a small program to test for the combinations given the above information and it checks out:

So Spurs had 3 winning combinations, one of their own + 2 from Atlanta. One more small detail, I know most realize but if Spurs had gotten the first pick, that would not mean they'd have gotten no. 2 as well, a split second later by virtue of calling another team means balls are inserted at a different time and result changes. They'd have had the same chances as per the ball drawn (better if Atlanta's combinations were drawn).

Also, this means the league is running a very simple scheme where they assign contiguous combinations to the same team, this means balls are disproportionately assigned to the same teams (especially those at the top) so the lottery would be more vulnerable to being rigged. Odd that they don't shuffle the combinations to prevent this.

Bottom line, in 2025 Spurs had 60 combinations via themselves, and 7 via Atlanta. that would give them 67 combinations out of 1000 for pick #1 (6.7%). So if they landed #1, the probability of landing pick #2 would have been:

• If they landed #1 via one of their own combinations those are out, so chances at #2 would be: 7 / (1000 - 60) = 0.74%
• If they landed #1 via one of Atlanta's combinations those are out, so chances at #2 would be: 60 / (1000 - 7) = 6.04%

Had they landed #1 but not knowing through which pick (own or Atlanta's) but using that last ball info (2 of Atlanta's combinations possible to 1 for the Spurs), since the second scenario was twice as likely as the first, we could estimate the probability of also landing pick #2 at about 0.74% * 33.3% + 6.04% * 66.7% = 4.28%. So it was not impossible but overwhelmingly unlikely to land both #1 and #2 even had they landed #1.

 

[mo7888]

By some miracle, I hope Hawks crash and burn and we use the pick swap to get a lottery pick and let Silver do the magic like he did for Nico Harrison

About 6 months ago I thought Atlanta crashing was a real possibility, but not anymore. I still dont think they're good, but the East is so riddled with major injuries I dont see anyway they miss the playoffs.

 

[mo7888]

Spurs wouldn't have any chance to draft him unless they make a big trade. Very cool that he wants to play for the Spurs with Victor.

Question : How good is this kid? If he was in this past draft, would he have gone number 1 over Cooper, number 2?

#2

 

[scott]

AJ might not even be #2 in this class (though that's where I have him at this early stage. Tankathon has him #3).

Interesting look at the last few classes:

2023: One clear cut player at the top (Wemby). No one else on draft day truly worthy of consideration of the #1 in a typical year
2024: No players on draft day truly worthy of consideration of the #1 in a typical year
2025: Two players on draft day truly worthy of consideration of the #1 in a typical year (Flagg and Harper)
2026: Early on looking like 3 players who could be #1 candidates in a typical year (Peterson, AJ, Boozer)

 

[pookenstein]

All we have to do is trade Wemby to the Lakers and bam, Silver will gift us the #1 pick

That made me throw up in my mouth a little.

 

[spurraider21]

Atlanta's not missing the playoffs with Boston, Indiana, and Miami out of the way, so unless you're hoping for a fourth straight tank year no Dybantsa here unless they trade Harper or maybe Castle and picks for him.

even if those teams were healthy i think atlanta would still be a top 6 team in the east. assuming at full health you had the Celtics/Cavs/Knicks/Pacers as the top 4, i think at worst theyre next to Orlando/Detroit, and would only have to finish above one of them to be top 6 and make playoffs outright. with them adding KP/NAW to an already ascending team getting Jalen Johnson back, i think anything short of that would have been a big disappointment

and now you have boston/indy somewhat neutered... i think theres a pretty reasonable chance the swap this year will not be exercised