Analysis Brian Windhorst: “Spurs are a playoff contender”

[Quentin_Compson]

Anything but being at least a Play-In team should be considered a disappointment this season. But I'm sure some people would claim it was intentionally taking it slow or stealthily semi-tanking after the fact, should the Spurs fail to accomplish that.

 

[Sugus]

Anything but being at least a Play-In team should be considered a disappointment this season. But I'm sure some people would claim it was intentionally taking it slow or stealthily semi-tanking after the fact, should the Spurs fail to accomplish that.

Nah, the moves made by the FO - which in past years, did clearly hint at a purposefully mis-matched roster made to fulfill the salary floor instead of being competitive - have shown the exact opposite trend for the last 2 seasons.

It's one thing to go into a "watch-and-see" approach for a season where you'll be starting Bryn Forbes and Patty Mills at PG/SG. But not after signing an All-Star PG, and multiple coveted veterans. Lastly, the DVT episode for Wemby is the proverbial wake-up call that haters were waiting for - no fucking around time left, Wemby's career could be cut short at any minute.

Honestly, last season was already a "win-now", but obviously Wemby's injury derailed all that. Hopefully no such things this year.

 

[brazil]

Play in is the realistic ambition

 

[Shmurs]

Nah, the moves made by the FO - which in past years, did clearly hint at a purposefully mis-matched roster made to fulfill the salary floor instead of being competitive - have shown the exact opposite trend for the last 2 seasons.

It's one thing to go into a "watch-and-see" approach for a season where you'll be starting Bryn Forbes and Patty Mills at PG/SG. But not after signing an All-Star PG, and multiple coveted veterans. Lastly, the DVT episode for Wemby is the proverbial wake-up call that haters were waiting for - no fucking around time left, Wemby's career could be cut short at any minute.

Honestly, last season was already a "win-now", but obviously Wemby's injury derailed all that. Hopefully no such things this year.

The FO, however, is very willing to keep fucking around. We have more trade assets than NBA starters, currently.

 

[Shmurs]

Listened to Legler’s win total prediction podcast. It was a good example of the National media’s take on the spurs. Legler’s co host is just some autopilot guy getting through the agenda when it comes to teams like the spurs, like Hoop collective and Bill Simmons. And he’s saying how great the spurs are going to be, listing out Wemby and the 3 guards. And then throws in “And you have Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan” as if it’s an indicator of depth.

These guys keep doing that with the amigos. Even Zach Lowe can’t help himself. Just toss those 3 names in like they’re plus players because they simply exist.

Looking forward to when there’s more people paying attention.

 

[Shmurs]

Hoop collective from yesterday spent some time on the spurs. All the national podcasts are starting to get it. It’s Vic and a bunch of question marks and some quantity of dead ends. I think Wright benefited from none of these guys paying attention this past year. You just do easy signings like Chris Paul and everyone thinks you’re a serious team working on serious player development. But the tune now is “Harper’s going to be good. We are not sure about anyone else, and that would now be unacceptable”.

The clock has at least finally started.

 

[Sugus]

Hoop collective from yesterday spent some time on the spurs. All the national podcasts are starting to get it. It’s Vic and a bunch of question marks and some quantity of dead ends. I think Wright benefited from none of these guys paying attention this past year. You just do easy signings like Chris Paul and everyone thinks you’re a serious team working on serious player development. But the tune now is “Harper’s going to be good. We are not sure about anyone else, and that would now be unacceptable”.

The clock has at least finally started.

What? How so? Wright benefits in no way from the media's opinion on the Spurs, for better and worse. The only thing that matters for him and his job is how the team actually does on the court.

By the way, lol at bringing the Spurstalk Pathology (shoutout @Exstatic) to this new sub. "If the signing was good, it was easy and obvious and everyone would've done it. If the signing was bad, it was obvious it would never work out and only an idiot would've done it"

BTW, be sure to count in Wemby's and Castle's improvements when waxing poetic about Spurs' player development or lack thereof, tbh...

 

[bozhemoi]

Hoop collective from yesterday spent some time on the spurs. All the national podcasts are starting to get it. It’s Vic and a bunch of question marks and some quantity of dead ends. I think Wright benefited from none of these guys paying attention this past year. You just do easy signings like Chris Paul and everyone thinks you’re a serious team working on serious player development. But the tune now is “Harper’s going to be good. We are not sure about anyone else, and that would now be unacceptable”.

The clock has at least finally started.

Since you 'just started watching the Spurs' I'll inform you where you're wrong.

The team badly needed veteran play last year as they were assembling the pieces. Other than getting their top draft pick right in a bad draft (which they did), they absolutely, badly needed to add a couple vets to show leadership and structure on the court. They managed to get two top tier veterans for free in Harrison Barnes and Chris Paul.

I get you're pretending to be new, but you're also wrong.

 

[Shmurs]

Ultimately the veterans they brought in last year didn’t do anything meaningful, did they? What did I miss where the immature players turned into solid pros?

Paul and Barnes helped pad a few extra wins while we were healthy. Barnes is also a keeper in the long run. But Wright has generally been sitting on his hands and, IMO, understood that the worst thing that could happen to him, personally, was to squander the trade assets we have. The alternative he chose was to watch them diminish to the point where Devin will need a rider and the ATL picks aren’t going to be worth an awful lot anymore.

This is highly speculative in my part but it does seem like the FO has been operating in a self-preservation mode with the forever tank strategy. Now they’re taking things more seriously but only after our trade assets have gone in the tank.

 

[Sugus]

Ultimately the veterans they brought in last year didn’t do anything meaningful, did they?

What? Multiple players on the team credited CP's knowledge, attitude and presence as a positive contribution last season, and Castle's ball-handling and floor game noticeably improved over the course of the season. Barnes was also highly spoken-of by the young players.

But Wright has generally been sitting on his hands and, IMO, understood that the worst thing that could happen to him, personally, was to squander the trade assets we have. The alternative he chose was to watch them diminish to the point where Devin will need a rider and the ATL picks aren’t going to be worth an awful lot anymore.

How has Wright been "sitting on his hands"? He's made multiple deals (the Fox acquisition was last season lmfao) for both players and future draft picks, leveraging the glut of immediate picks into high-value future swaps from remarkably terrible teams like SAC and MIN. He literally made moves with assets like the 8th pick, traded away, instead of "doing nothing" and drafting a player with it. The ATL picks' value diminishing has mostly been factors outside of his control (the fuckin' Pelicans), and even then, have already produced tangible value in the Carter Bryant lottery pick.

This is highly speculative in my part but it does seem like the FO has been operating in a self-preservation mode with the forever tank strategy. Now they’re taking things more seriously but only after our trade assets have gone in the tank.

I don't buy your "new fan" shtick either but, even then, this revisionist history is laughable. What you call "self-preservation" and "forever tank" were direct results of Kawhi reneging on a team hand-built for him as lone star, and the painful pivot as a result, which has been debated to hell and back on ST already (you can go read the threads there and have fun, tbh).

And I'm failing to see which assets are "in the tank" beyond the ATL picks, which is itself debatable? Though this seems like an exercise in futility to entertain a troll, but I had to do it this one time at least. The Spurs own most if not all their own future picks, plus multiple future picks from other team & swaps, plus multiple high-value players (I'm not talking about the Frienship Crew here, btw).

You sound like you'd love to follow the Bulls instead, tbqh. Or the Kings maybe?

 

[Shmurs]

Atl picks, Devin, Jeremy.

All diminishing from a year ago when we knew this was a dead end. If the purpose of bringing Paul in was to teach, then we should have seen it on the court. We didn’t, because this was an unreachable group. Which we knew already.

This team could have a top 6 roster today and still have all of their own picks available. Imo it would have been worth it this summer to make that happen. I understand if reasonable people disagree.

I am more confident in the politics of it all, though.

 

[dn0774]

Ultimately the veterans they brought in last year didn’t do anything meaningful, did they? What did I miss where the immature players turned into solid pros?

Paul and Barnes helped pad a few extra wins while we were healthy. Barnes is also a keeper in the long run. But Wright has generally been sitting on his hands and, IMO, understood that the worst thing that could happen to him, personally, was to squander the trade assets we have. The alternative he chose was to watch them diminish to the point where Devin will need a rider and the ATL picks aren’t going to be worth an awful lot anymore.

This is highly speculative in my part but it does seem like the FO has been operating in a self-preservation mode with the forever tank strategy. Now they’re taking things more seriously but only after our trade assets have gone in the tank.

The dividends from having Paul and Barnes aren't necessarily reaped immediately. 19 and 20 year old kids don't instantly put it together just because Chris Paul is on the team, seeing CP3 up close and the work he puts in and the way he processes the game has a downstream effect later on.

I have legitimate concerns about Wrights (and by extension our scouting dept) ability to bring in appropriate talent for NBA basketball in 2025. That being said, i'm on board with the Harper/Bryant picks, both were no brainers to me and he gets the credit for not overplaying the hand he was dealt. I agree Wright has seemingly not had an appropriate amount of pressure applied given his lack of results in wins/losses.

I also have serious concerns about our player development. Repeatedly seeing guys stagnate at 22 years old (Sochan, Keldon, Vassell) in our pipeline is alarming and I hope some fresh eyes on the coaching staff can identify/correct the problem. The Grizzlies for instance have had so much bad luck with injuries and Ja being Ja but they continuously develop solid pros with late 1st and 2nd round picks. It is not an accident. It seems everyone who ends up a Spur has less value by the end of their Spurs tenure and not more.

 

[Exstatic]

What? Multiple players on the team credited CP's knowledge, attitude and presence as a positive contribution last season, and Castle's ball-handling and floor game noticeably improved over the course of the season. Barnes was also highly spoken-of by the young players.


How has Wright been "sitting on his hands"? He's made multiple deals (the Fox acquisition was last season lmfao) for both players and future draft picks, leveraging the glut of immediate picks into high-value future swaps from remarkably terrible teams like SAC and MIN. He literally made moves with assets like the 8th pick, traded away, instead of "doing nothing" and drafting a player with it. The ATL picks' value diminishing has mostly been factors outside of his control (the fuckin' Pelicans), and even then, have already produced tangible value in the Carter Bryant lottery pick.


I don't buy your "new fan" shtick either but, even then, this revisionist history is laughable. What you call "self-preservation" and "forever tank" were direct results of Kawhi reneging on a team hand-built for him as lone star, and the painful pivot as a result, which has been debated to hell and back on ST already (you can go read the threads there and have fun, tbh).

And I'm failing to see which assets are "in the tank" beyond the ATL picks, which is itself debatable? Though this seems like an exercise in futility to entertain a troll, but I had to do it this one time at least. The Spurs own most if not all their own future picks, plus multiple future picks from other team & swaps, plus multiple high-value players (I'm not talking about the Frienship Crew here, btw).

You sound like you'd love to follow the Bulls instead, tbqh. Or the Kings maybe?

You’re wasting your time with him.

 

[Exstatic]

The dividends from having Paul and Barnes aren't necessarily reaped immediately. 19 and 20 year old kids don't instantly put it together just because Chris Paul is on the team, seeing CP3 up close and the work he puts in and the way he processes the game has a downstream effect later on.

I have legitimate concerns about Wrights (and by extension our scouting dept) ability to bring in appropriate talent for NBA basketball in 2025. That being said, i'm on board with the Harper/Bryant picks, both were no brainers to me and he gets the credit for not overplaying the hand he was dealt. I agree Wright has seemingly not had an appropriate amount of pressure applied given his lack of results in wins/losses.

I also have serious concerns about our player development. Repeatedly seeing guys stagnate at 22 years old (Sochan, Keldon, Vassell) in our pipeline is alarming and I hope some fresh eyes on the coaching staff can identify/correct the problem. The Grizzlies for instance have had so much bad luck with injuries and Ja being Ja but they continuously develop solid pros with late 1st and 2nd round picks. It is not an accident. It seems everyone who ends up a Spur has less value by the end of their Spurs tenure and not more.

The Grizzlies develop rotation players out of those guys, but the team never goes anywhere.

Sochan, Vassell, and especially Keldon should not be counted on to be stars. Having a 9,11, or 29 pick flame out completely isn’t at all uncommon, and none of them did that. The expected values of those picks aren’t that high. The return on a draft pick outside of the top 4 or 5 kind of drops off a cliff.

 

[scott]

Keldon has far exceeded median expectation for a 29th pick (as have pretty much all of the 29th picks we've made in our history with the exception of Leon Smith in 1999, who we traded for Gordan Giracek who did all of nothing for us... but we drafted Manu in the second round that year).

Vassell is exceeding median expectations for an 11th overall pick, IMO.

Sochan is probably on par with median expectation for a 9th overall pick, IMO.

I don't particularly want any of these guys on my team... but you gotta look at these things in perspective. People have too high expectations of draft picks, thinking every single one is going to become an all-star, especially in the late lotto. Lots of late lotto picks bust out of the league.

 

[LeBowen]

Some months ago I said that while friendship crew are all obviously flawed, subpar players in their current iterations, that doesn't mean they wouldn't do better somewhere else.

They're role players which means they're good at some and very bad at other things. Unfortunately for them, our biggest need when it comes to role players is efficent 3pt shooting and legit wing size.
Jeremy has the size, can't shoot at all.
Keldon's size doesn't matter because he's an awful defender and a subpar shooter.
Devin can shoot, but needs the ball and pushes Castle to SF.

 

[Arguendo]

Keldon has far exceeded median expectation for a 29th pick (as have pretty much all of the 29th picks we've made in our history with the exception of Leon Smith in 1999, who we traded for Gordan Giracek who did all of nothing for us... but we drafted Manu in the second round that year).

Vassell is exceeding median expectations for an 11th overall pick, IMO.

Sochan is probably on par with median expectation for a 9th overall pick, IMO.

I don't particularly want any of these guys on my team... but you gotta look at these things in perspective. People have too high expectations of draft picks, thinking every single one is going to become an all-star, especially in the late lotto. Lots of late lotto picks bust out of the league.

Yes, I'd really like people to be more realistic with all of this.
Vassell, Sochan and Keldon are all NBA players. We'd just like them to fit the roster/ ie just be role players.

But they came into chaos, with the goal of losing. They are frustrating and they look like losers, but they're not bursts. I could see all 3 excelling with a change of scenario. Hopefully one can learn a role and excel here. Not holding my breath.

 

[Arguendo]

Some months ago I said that while friendship crew are all obviously flawed, subpar players in their current iterations, that doesn't mean they wouldn't do better somewhere else.
...
Devin can shoot, but needs the ball and pushes Castle to SF.

God it's just sooo easy to see Devin being a good fit...just learn to be the 4th option and primarily spot-up and try on D. That really doesn't seem to be asking that much.
If he can't play that role, he could be a high-end bench scorer if he can just play within-the-flow off-ball next to Harper/Castle. He could really excel in that role, that's prolly his best case.

He's got 2 real path to being very valuable. He's shot 37.5% on 6.5+ 3s per game over the past 3 seasons. I have no confidence he will actual fill either of those roles though

 

[rascal]

Spurs will finish from 2 to 5 in the west. Wemby is going to be better as long as he can stay healthy. He's looking physically stronger as he gets older. Fox is here from the start of the season. Expecting Castle to be better in year two.

Spurs have added much needed roster depth in the offseason in Olynyk, Kornet and Harper(future all star) and to a lesser extent Bryant. After OKC which will be the top team in the west the Spurs are right there with Houston, Denver and Minn and are really deeper than all these teams but it will take some time for the spurs to integrate all the new players.


Over the last year and a half Spurs have really upgraded their roster. Spurs are deep with talent now.

 

[TDomination]

Path to the playoffs begins today!

 

[ginobilized]

78 more to go, I think it’s going to be a great season. 4-0 start is, well, perfect. Counting pre-season we’re on a 9-game streak. Wemby hasn’t lost a game since the Silver & Black scrimmage. A long way to go, but, Wemby 3.0 is a whole new kind of beast. Feels like guys are locked-in and playing with great cohesion. With some luck in the health dept, this full roster could deal some real damage come playoff time.

 

[ambchang]

So after 6 games, and with a rather disappointing outing vs. the Suns, I wanted to take a look at our overall numbers in terms of play style of the Spurs. These are numbers, and my comments are purely based on opinions.

Offence:

Play Type	FREQ% (Rank)	PPP (Rank)	EFG% (Rank)	Comments
Isolation	5.9 (17)	1.20 (3)	53.8 (7)	The Spurs are quite efficient at this, but we don't do it that much. With a talent like Wemby and players like Castle, Harper and later on Fox, this would seem like a good play. Maybe the lack of spacing hurts this strategy somewhat, but the numbers are not showing this.
Transition	18.8 (15)	1.30 (4)	74.4 (2)	We are very good at this but we don't seem to have enough of transitions, which is odd considering we are #10 in TOV% forced and #2 in DRB%. With the eye test, we have a rebound by committee type of game though, so even though we rebound very well, often times the entire team is crashing in on the boards, cutting off transition opportunities. Having someone like Fox back, with Castle and Harper (back after injury) would push this higher, I hope. Edit: as unpopular as this would sound, sochan rebounding can lead to a few wemby transitions. Not too many people guarding wemby can keep up with him but we need someone to rebound the ball.
Pick n Roll (Ball Handler)	12.8 (26)	0.86 (15)	52.8 (8)	Two stats I didn't show. In this play type, we are 3rd in FT frequency (good) and 1st in TO frequency (bad) for PnR ball handler. Castle and Harper are the only two who have enough possessions to make the list, and they are quite bad in both turnovers (Castle is 10th worst amongst 106 players who qualified for the list, Harper is 4th worst) and PPP (53.8 and 22.9 %ile ,respectively). They are both young, and pick and roll relies on a lot of experience to know how to read the defence. Thank God Vassell and Keldon didn't do this enough to qualify.
Pick n Roll (Roller)	4.7 (23)	0.97 (25)	48.3 (27)	Yikes, we are bad at this, with guys like Wemby and Korndog here, there is no reason we wouod roll to the rim this infrequently that do it this poorly.
Post up	4.7 (7)	0.91 (21)	38.1 (26)	This is just bad, and I am not sure why we are doing this so often. Wemby is the only player with enough possessions to show up , and he is 43.8 %ile in the league (based off of PPP) at 0.89, which is worse than our team PPP. Long ways to go.
Spot Up	27.8 (4)	0.98 (24)	49.1 (26)	We aren't that good at it, so why are we doing it so often? Vassell leads the group at 6.3 possessions per game, but he is shooting an EFG of only 41.4%, yielding only 0.76 PPP. Keldon is the best in terms of PPP though, quite a surprise, and Castle is really good at1.32 PPP and Champaigne at 1.17 PPP.
Handoff	2.9 (26)	0.75 (24)	38.2 (23rd)	This should be a relatively simple play, and with ball handlers like we have this shouldn't be a huge issue, but I guess our shooting really does lock ourselves up.
Cut	6.2 (20)	1.19 (23)	64.9 (15)	Confession, I actually wanted to check this. With a hub like Wemby, I felt cuts are the best offence we can do, well, we are not. We are dead last in drawing fouls here and not that great at holding onto the ball. This should be a bread and butter play for the Spurs as Wemby, Fox, Harper and castle will create so many opportunities.
Off screen	3.1 (18)	1.05 (11)	61.8 (7)	We are reasonable in terms of efficiency, but we do not set good enough screens as well, which again, is not a surprise as I believe Korndog is the only guy who can set some pro-level screens.

We can be a bit more aggressive isolating Wemby as he is 96th %ile in the league in this, scoring 1.53 PPP. We can also look at having designated fast breakers to run the transition as we are excellent in finishing in this. If we have players like castle, Champaigne keldon kornhub and sochan crashing the boards, wemby can be unleashed in the open court which should be unguardable. We have to learn to box out first though.

Things to improve upon, get someone to actually set better screens and roll better, and look to spot up less as we just arent' that good at it.

 

[ambchang]

Defence:

Play Type	FREQ% (Rank)	PPP (Rank)	EFG% (Rank)	Comments
Isolation	6.9 (19)	0.72 (4)	24.1 (1)	Teams are not iso'ing against the Spurs much and it's with good reason, I would imagine having Wemby back you up would help quite a bit here. I am assuming no one is stupid enough to iso against Wemby frequently and so far there are so few that there weren't 10 possessions in the 6 games we've played for the stats t show.
Transition	14.8 (1)	1.25 (24)	64.3 (20)	Given we get so many rebounds, not surprising we don't give up a lot of transition opportunities (despite the TOs) but once they start running, we are mediocre in stopping them. Seems like we are lost on transition D a lot, and with a shortage or defensive wings, this isn't a huge surprise. Wemby isn't going to do chase down blocks every game.
Pick n Roll (Ball Handler)	15.1 (15)	0.73 (2)	41.3 (4)	Well, Wemby is the eraser, and with Korndog backing him up, it's tough to score on this.
Pick n Roll (Roller)	5.0 (8)	1.12 (15)	60.3 (20)	People don't roll much, but when they do, they do well. Hypothesis is that they do most of this against a lineup without wemby, but I have no data on this yet.
Post Up	3.3 (11)	1.04 (15)	50.0 (11)	Things I didn't show, we foul a lot (8th worst) and aren't that great a forcing TOs. I am a little surprised at how average we are here.
Spot Up	25.5 (21)	1.00 (11)	52.3 (15)	We aren't paritcularly good in this, and it works with the eye tests of players unnecessarily helping out on drives, leaving shooters opened. Shockingly, KJ allows only 0.4 PPP on 2.5 possessions per game. So either he is crazy lucky or he's doing something right. Vcitor is rather bad at 1.19 ppp, 34.7 %ile. Unc is 22.5th %ile at 1.28% and Champagnie is surprisingly bad at 29.6%il at 1.22 PPP.
Handoff	6.0 (30)	0.75 (8)	45.0 (14)	With our defence sometimes losing focus, I am not surprised teams try to do this to us so often. We see to defend this reasonably well, but it is ONLY because we forced quite a few TOs. having guys like Castle and Harper here helps a lot. Wemby isn't a slouch either.
Cut	No data
Screen	4.2 (23)	1.32 (29)	68.5 (29)	Oh man, it's not that hard to defend a screen and pop, is it? This is just terrible.

So in conclusion, I would say that teams know we are young, and are exploiting our inexperience. Defending screens shouldn't be this hard, but we have a tendency of going under screens, leading to a lot of pull up three pointers. We are also bad at defending the roller, which is another sign of us ball watching and over-helping. Transition wise, take care of the ball, and we should be fine.

 

[scott]

Awesome stuff @ambchang - thank you for being a savvy data hound, I love this shit!

 

[RC_Drunkford]

interesting. Seems like a lot of this can be fixed by game reps and having our full roster out there