Analysis Brian Windhorst: “Spurs are a playoff contender”

[Quentin_Compson]

Anything but being at least a Play-In team should be considered a disappointment this season. But I'm sure some people would claim it was intentionally taking it slow or stealthily semi-tanking after the fact, should the Spurs fail to accomplish that.

 

[Sugus]

Anything but being at least a Play-In team should be considered a disappointment this season. But I'm sure some people would claim it was intentionally taking it slow or stealthily semi-tanking after the fact, should the Spurs fail to accomplish that.

Nah, the moves made by the FO - which in past years, did clearly hint at a purposefully mis-matched roster made to fulfill the salary floor instead of being competitive - have shown the exact opposite trend for the last 2 seasons.

It's one thing to go into a "watch-and-see" approach for a season where you'll be starting Bryn Forbes and Patty Mills at PG/SG. But not after signing an All-Star PG, and multiple coveted veterans. Lastly, the DVT episode for Wemby is the proverbial wake-up call that haters were waiting for - no fucking around time left, Wemby's career could be cut short at any minute.

Honestly, last season was already a "win-now", but obviously Wemby's injury derailed all that. Hopefully no such things this year.

 

[brazil]

Play in is the realistic ambition

 

[Shmurs]

Nah, the moves made by the FO - which in past years, did clearly hint at a purposefully mis-matched roster made to fulfill the salary floor instead of being competitive - have shown the exact opposite trend for the last 2 seasons.

It's one thing to go into a "watch-and-see" approach for a season where you'll be starting Bryn Forbes and Patty Mills at PG/SG. But not after signing an All-Star PG, and multiple coveted veterans. Lastly, the DVT episode for Wemby is the proverbial wake-up call that haters were waiting for - no fucking around time left, Wemby's career could be cut short at any minute.

Honestly, last season was already a "win-now", but obviously Wemby's injury derailed all that. Hopefully no such things this year.

The FO, however, is very willing to keep fucking around. We have more trade assets than NBA starters, currently.

 

[Shmurs]

Listened to Legler’s win total prediction podcast. It was a good example of the National media’s take on the spurs. Legler’s co host is just some autopilot guy getting through the agenda when it comes to teams like the spurs, like Hoop collective and Bill Simmons. And he’s saying how great the spurs are going to be, listing out Wemby and the 3 guards. And then throws in “And you have Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan” as if it’s an indicator of depth.

These guys keep doing that with the amigos. Even Zach Lowe can’t help himself. Just toss those 3 names in like they’re plus players because they simply exist.

Looking forward to when there’s more people paying attention.

 

[Shmurs]

Hoop collective from yesterday spent some time on the spurs. All the national podcasts are starting to get it. It’s Vic and a bunch of question marks and some quantity of dead ends. I think Wright benefited from none of these guys paying attention this past year. You just do easy signings like Chris Paul and everyone thinks you’re a serious team working on serious player development. But the tune now is “Harper’s going to be good. We are not sure about anyone else, and that would now be unacceptable”.

The clock has at least finally started.

 

[Sugus]

Hoop collective from yesterday spent some time on the spurs. All the national podcasts are starting to get it. It’s Vic and a bunch of question marks and some quantity of dead ends. I think Wright benefited from none of these guys paying attention this past year. You just do easy signings like Chris Paul and everyone thinks you’re a serious team working on serious player development. But the tune now is “Harper’s going to be good. We are not sure about anyone else, and that would now be unacceptable”.

The clock has at least finally started.

What? How so? Wright benefits in no way from the media's opinion on the Spurs, for better and worse. The only thing that matters for him and his job is how the team actually does on the court.

By the way, lol at bringing the Spurstalk Pathology (shoutout @Exstatic) to this new sub. "If the signing was good, it was easy and obvious and everyone would've done it. If the signing was bad, it was obvious it would never work out and only an idiot would've done it"

BTW, be sure to count in Wemby's and Castle's improvements when waxing poetic about Spurs' player development or lack thereof, tbh...

 

[bozhemoi]

Hoop collective from yesterday spent some time on the spurs. All the national podcasts are starting to get it. It’s Vic and a bunch of question marks and some quantity of dead ends. I think Wright benefited from none of these guys paying attention this past year. You just do easy signings like Chris Paul and everyone thinks you’re a serious team working on serious player development. But the tune now is “Harper’s going to be good. We are not sure about anyone else, and that would now be unacceptable”.

The clock has at least finally started.

Since you 'just started watching the Spurs' I'll inform you where you're wrong.

The team badly needed veteran play last year as they were assembling the pieces. Other than getting their top draft pick right in a bad draft (which they did), they absolutely, badly needed to add a couple vets to show leadership and structure on the court. They managed to get two top tier veterans for free in Harrison Barnes and Chris Paul.

I get you're pretending to be new, but you're also wrong.

 

[Shmurs]

Ultimately the veterans they brought in last year didn’t do anything meaningful, did they? What did I miss where the immature players turned into solid pros?

Paul and Barnes helped pad a few extra wins while we were healthy. Barnes is also a keeper in the long run. But Wright has generally been sitting on his hands and, IMO, understood that the worst thing that could happen to him, personally, was to squander the trade assets we have. The alternative he chose was to watch them diminish to the point where Devin will need a rider and the ATL picks aren’t going to be worth an awful lot anymore.

This is highly speculative in my part but it does seem like the FO has been operating in a self-preservation mode with the forever tank strategy. Now they’re taking things more seriously but only after our trade assets have gone in the tank.

 

[Sugus]

Ultimately the veterans they brought in last year didn’t do anything meaningful, did they?

What? Multiple players on the team credited CP's knowledge, attitude and presence as a positive contribution last season, and Castle's ball-handling and floor game noticeably improved over the course of the season. Barnes was also highly spoken-of by the young players.

But Wright has generally been sitting on his hands and, IMO, understood that the worst thing that could happen to him, personally, was to squander the trade assets we have. The alternative he chose was to watch them diminish to the point where Devin will need a rider and the ATL picks aren’t going to be worth an awful lot anymore.

How has Wright been "sitting on his hands"? He's made multiple deals (the Fox acquisition was last season lmfao) for both players and future draft picks, leveraging the glut of immediate picks into high-value future swaps from remarkably terrible teams like SAC and MIN. He literally made moves with assets like the 8th pick, traded away, instead of "doing nothing" and drafting a player with it. The ATL picks' value diminishing has mostly been factors outside of his control (the fuckin' Pelicans), and even then, have already produced tangible value in the Carter Bryant lottery pick.

This is highly speculative in my part but it does seem like the FO has been operating in a self-preservation mode with the forever tank strategy. Now they’re taking things more seriously but only after our trade assets have gone in the tank.

I don't buy your "new fan" shtick either but, even then, this revisionist history is laughable. What you call "self-preservation" and "forever tank" were direct results of Kawhi reneging on a team hand-built for him as lone star, and the painful pivot as a result, which has been debated to hell and back on ST already (you can go read the threads there and have fun, tbh).

And I'm failing to see which assets are "in the tank" beyond the ATL picks, which is itself debatable? Though this seems like an exercise in futility to entertain a troll, but I had to do it this one time at least. The Spurs own most if not all their own future picks, plus multiple future picks from other team & swaps, plus multiple high-value players (I'm not talking about the Frienship Crew here, btw).

You sound like you'd love to follow the Bulls instead, tbqh. Or the Kings maybe?

 

[Shmurs]

Atl picks, Devin, Jeremy.

All diminishing from a year ago when we knew this was a dead end. If the purpose of bringing Paul in was to teach, then we should have seen it on the court. We didn’t, because this was an unreachable group. Which we knew already.

This team could have a top 6 roster today and still have all of their own picks available. Imo it would have been worth it this summer to make that happen. I understand if reasonable people disagree.

I am more confident in the politics of it all, though.

 

[dn0774]

Ultimately the veterans they brought in last year didn’t do anything meaningful, did they? What did I miss where the immature players turned into solid pros?

Paul and Barnes helped pad a few extra wins while we were healthy. Barnes is also a keeper in the long run. But Wright has generally been sitting on his hands and, IMO, understood that the worst thing that could happen to him, personally, was to squander the trade assets we have. The alternative he chose was to watch them diminish to the point where Devin will need a rider and the ATL picks aren’t going to be worth an awful lot anymore.

This is highly speculative in my part but it does seem like the FO has been operating in a self-preservation mode with the forever tank strategy. Now they’re taking things more seriously but only after our trade assets have gone in the tank.

The dividends from having Paul and Barnes aren't necessarily reaped immediately. 19 and 20 year old kids don't instantly put it together just because Chris Paul is on the team, seeing CP3 up close and the work he puts in and the way he processes the game has a downstream effect later on.

I have legitimate concerns about Wrights (and by extension our scouting dept) ability to bring in appropriate talent for NBA basketball in 2025. That being said, i'm on board with the Harper/Bryant picks, both were no brainers to me and he gets the credit for not overplaying the hand he was dealt. I agree Wright has seemingly not had an appropriate amount of pressure applied given his lack of results in wins/losses.

I also have serious concerns about our player development. Repeatedly seeing guys stagnate at 22 years old (Sochan, Keldon, Vassell) in our pipeline is alarming and I hope some fresh eyes on the coaching staff can identify/correct the problem. The Grizzlies for instance have had so much bad luck with injuries and Ja being Ja but they continuously develop solid pros with late 1st and 2nd round picks. It is not an accident. It seems everyone who ends up a Spur has less value by the end of their Spurs tenure and not more.

 

[Exstatic]

What? Multiple players on the team credited CP's knowledge, attitude and presence as a positive contribution last season, and Castle's ball-handling and floor game noticeably improved over the course of the season. Barnes was also highly spoken-of by the young players.


How has Wright been "sitting on his hands"? He's made multiple deals (the Fox acquisition was last season lmfao) for both players and future draft picks, leveraging the glut of immediate picks into high-value future swaps from remarkably terrible teams like SAC and MIN. He literally made moves with assets like the 8th pick, traded away, instead of "doing nothing" and drafting a player with it. The ATL picks' value diminishing has mostly been factors outside of his control (the fuckin' Pelicans), and even then, have already produced tangible value in the Carter Bryant lottery pick.


I don't buy your "new fan" shtick either but, even then, this revisionist history is laughable. What you call "self-preservation" and "forever tank" were direct results of Kawhi reneging on a team hand-built for him as lone star, and the painful pivot as a result, which has been debated to hell and back on ST already (you can go read the threads there and have fun, tbh).

And I'm failing to see which assets are "in the tank" beyond the ATL picks, which is itself debatable? Though this seems like an exercise in futility to entertain a troll, but I had to do it this one time at least. The Spurs own most if not all their own future picks, plus multiple future picks from other team & swaps, plus multiple high-value players (I'm not talking about the Frienship Crew here, btw).

You sound like you'd love to follow the Bulls instead, tbqh. Or the Kings maybe?

You’re wasting your time with him.

 

[Exstatic]

The dividends from having Paul and Barnes aren't necessarily reaped immediately. 19 and 20 year old kids don't instantly put it together just because Chris Paul is on the team, seeing CP3 up close and the work he puts in and the way he processes the game has a downstream effect later on.

I have legitimate concerns about Wrights (and by extension our scouting dept) ability to bring in appropriate talent for NBA basketball in 2025. That being said, i'm on board with the Harper/Bryant picks, both were no brainers to me and he gets the credit for not overplaying the hand he was dealt. I agree Wright has seemingly not had an appropriate amount of pressure applied given his lack of results in wins/losses.

I also have serious concerns about our player development. Repeatedly seeing guys stagnate at 22 years old (Sochan, Keldon, Vassell) in our pipeline is alarming and I hope some fresh eyes on the coaching staff can identify/correct the problem. The Grizzlies for instance have had so much bad luck with injuries and Ja being Ja but they continuously develop solid pros with late 1st and 2nd round picks. It is not an accident. It seems everyone who ends up a Spur has less value by the end of their Spurs tenure and not more.

The Grizzlies develop rotation players out of those guys, but the team never goes anywhere.

Sochan, Vassell, and especially Keldon should not be counted on to be stars. Having a 9,11, or 29 pick flame out completely isn’t at all uncommon, and none of them did that. The expected values of those picks aren’t that high. The return on a draft pick outside of the top 4 or 5 kind of drops off a cliff.

 

[scott]

Keldon has far exceeded median expectation for a 29th pick (as have pretty much all of the 29th picks we've made in our history with the exception of Leon Smith in 1999, who we traded for Gordan Giracek who did all of nothing for us... but we drafted Manu in the second round that year).

Vassell is exceeding median expectations for an 11th overall pick, IMO.

Sochan is probably on par with median expectation for a 9th overall pick, IMO.

I don't particularly want any of these guys on my team... but you gotta look at these things in perspective. People have too high expectations of draft picks, thinking every single one is going to become an all-star, especially in the late lotto. Lots of late lotto picks bust out of the league.

 

[LeBowen]

Some months ago I said that while friendship crew are all obviously flawed, subpar players in their current iterations, that doesn't mean they wouldn't do better somewhere else.

They're role players which means they're good at some and very bad at other things. Unfortunately for them, our biggest need when it comes to role players is efficent 3pt shooting and legit wing size.
Jeremy has the size, can't shoot at all.
Keldon's size doesn't matter because he's an awful defender and a subpar shooter.
Devin can shoot, but needs the ball and pushes Castle to SF.

 

[Arguendo]

Keldon has far exceeded median expectation for a 29th pick (as have pretty much all of the 29th picks we've made in our history with the exception of Leon Smith in 1999, who we traded for Gordan Giracek who did all of nothing for us... but we drafted Manu in the second round that year).

Vassell is exceeding median expectations for an 11th overall pick, IMO.

Sochan is probably on par with median expectation for a 9th overall pick, IMO.

I don't particularly want any of these guys on my team... but you gotta look at these things in perspective. People have too high expectations of draft picks, thinking every single one is going to become an all-star, especially in the late lotto. Lots of late lotto picks bust out of the league.

Yes, I'd really like people to be more realistic with all of this.
Vassell, Sochan and Keldon are all NBA players. We'd just like them to fit the roster/ ie just be role players.

But they came into chaos, with the goal of losing. They are frustrating and they look like losers, but they're not bursts. I could see all 3 excelling with a change of scenario. Hopefully one can learn a role and excel here. Not holding my breath.

 

[Arguendo]

Some months ago I said that while friendship crew are all obviously flawed, subpar players in their current iterations, that doesn't mean they wouldn't do better somewhere else.
...
Devin can shoot, but needs the ball and pushes Castle to SF.

God it's just sooo easy to see Devin being a good fit...just learn to be the 4th option and primarily spot-up and try on D. That really doesn't seem to be asking that much.
If he can't play that role, he could be a high-end bench scorer if he can just play within-the-flow off-ball next to Harper/Castle. He could really excel in that role, that's prolly his best case.

He's got 2 real path to being very valuable. He's shot 37.5% on 6.5+ 3s per game over the past 3 seasons. I have no confidence he will actual fill either of those roles though

 

[rascal]

Spurs will finish from 2 to 5 in the west. Wemby is going to be better as long as he can stay healthy. He's looking physically stronger as he gets older. Fox is here from the start of the season. Expecting Castle to be better in year two.

Spurs have added much needed roster depth in the offseason in Olynyk, Kornet and Harper(future all star) and to a lesser extent Bryant. After OKC which will be the top team in the west the Spurs are right there with Houston, Denver and Minn and are really deeper than all these teams but it will take some time for the spurs to integrate all the new players.


Over the last year and a half Spurs have really upgraded their roster. Spurs are deep with talent now.

 

[TDomination]

Path to the playoffs begins today!