It's an interesting question for sure - I think compared to Boozer, you're right that AJ moves a lot more fluidly and profiles as more of an on-ball creator. They're both not good defenders, as Boozer seems to be more stiff on the perimeter while AJ gets lost a ton.
I may be biased by the last two drafts but to me, Reed Sheppard and Kon Knueppel have already exceeded what their physical profiles suggested they could do after producing way less than Boozer at an older age. Sheppard's got basically the worst physical profile / worst archetype in basketball (drafted that high because analytics) and a bench player at Kentucky and he's 80th percentile EPM in his second season. Knueppel was not athletic at all, has short stubby arms, and can barely dunk and yet looks like he might be some Klay Thompson / poor man's Devin Booker hybrid. Both were minus athletes who didn't produce nearly as well and were about a year older than Boozer is now. In terms of how he scores, I don't think Boozer's necessarily an S tier engine or anything, but between bully-ball, passing, earning extra possessions through rebounding, shooting potential, and just knowing when to cut/where to be, he's got his own ways to score. I see Kevin Love thrown around as a comp a decent amount, but Boozer's better at a younger age than Love and has a stronger shooting signal and is a better decision-maker, so maybe Boozer is to Love what Cooper Flagg will be to Franz Wagner.
Dybantsa's obvious path to success is as an offensive engine. But do you see him as some amazing playmaker? If not, does he provide ancillary value? Like is he a great rebounder, will he set good screens for you, will he space the floor? Does he look like he'll have a good off-the-dribble 3 if teams play for the drive? Or are you relying on him to maintain elite efficiency through high volume scoring via FTs, drives to the paint, and mid-range jumpers, in which case he'd basically be Tracy McGrady? Is it a concern at all that his EFG% drops from 59 to 50 against top 100 competition, and down to 48 against top 50 competition? Like I have no doubt AJ's a stud, he'd be my odds-on favorite for ROY because I think he's going to put up more points than anybody else in this draft class especially from the outside.
I don't know, this is why I'm not as confident that one's going to be better than the other.
But then again, 10:1 odds seems like a bargain price to me - I'll happily put down any amount up to $500 on that if you're willing, especially going by DARKO, EPM, or 3 year RAPM by year 4 that Boozer's the better pro.
