Player The Lifelong Residency of the Ever-Important Heart and Soul of the Spurs, Keldon Johnson

[ambchang]

I’ve been on the trade Vassell train for a while now. He had the worst on off of anyone on the spurs and couldn’t work within a team environment. Even if he can make it into a buckets guy who plays D, I can see that being a $27M guy.

 

[OK Computer]

I like Keldon... but (and before understanding the full nuance of this statement) this seems like a stretch.

lol, just seeing if you’d take me seriously with that statement. I was kidding.

 

[Em-City]

I don't hate having KJ on the team in a similar capacity to what he's been playing in pre-season. Having said that, he's a tradeable asset and his tenure/reputation shouldn't prevent the FO seeking an upgrade at any opportunity

 

[scott]

lol, just seeing if you’d take me seriously with that statement. I was kidding.

I’d definitely rather have Keldon than Devin though!

 

[Exstatic]

So, I’ll say that I was generally happy with what he showed in pre-season…

But as I was putting the game grades together for the last game v IND something stood out… Keldon had a decent stat line and my impression of the game was that he played well… but he had a team worst +/-, and at some point that can’t be ignored.

There are a few possible explanations:

1. He’s out there with lineups that really struggle but provides that scoring punch that pulls us through those stretches
2. It’s just a coincidence
3. He’s not a winning player and he actually drags the team down

I want to believe if’ts number 1 or 2… but I can’t fully discount #3. I’ve provided data before that Devin and Keldon is a combination that should NEVER play together, as the team is worse by every conceivable measure when they do. This might be true of Keldon on his own. I’ll wait until games count for real before I start drawing too much into lineup combinations… but I’ve got my eye on this.

Raw +/- is a pretty dodgy stat. Matt Bonner was the King, and one of the worst defenders on this late championship clubs. I’m pretty sure K played pretty late into the game with 3-4 dleaguers on the floor.

 

[OK Computer]

I’d definitely rather have Keldon than Devin though!

The Thunder are being pegged as the number one defensive team this upcoming season by media pundits. To me, that should be the goal with any roster ideas. The Thunder are not viewed this way because they’re filled with 6’8”+ tall wings. I believe the only thing the Spurs need to do to get there is replace Vassell and Barnes with hyper defensive pests (who can shoot 3’s) like Dort and Caruso and we’re there, baby.

 

[LeBowen]

The Thunder are being pegged as the number one defensive team this upcoming season by media pundits. To me, that should be the goal with any roster ideas. The Thunder are not viewed this way because they’re filled with 6’8”+ tall wings. I believe the only thing the Spurs need to do to get there is replace Vassell and Barnes with hyper defensive pests (who can shoot 3’s) like Dort and Caruso and we’re there, baby.

Thunder adapted to their opponents when needed.
Hartenstein played 27mpg against the Nuggets and Chet played 31mpg.

Chet, KD (or Jabari), Lebron, Gordon, nephew, Randle, JJJ, AD are PFs on Western playoff teams.
Warriors are the only small team.

If we can get away with playing Barnes/Keldon at PF, fine. But right now Wemby/Kornet looks like a way more viable matchup in a lot of games.
It would be ideal if we can get ourselves a SF+ sized elite defensive forward. Whether it be someone really long like McDaniels or a very strong player like Anunoby.

 

[OK Computer]

Thunder adapted to their opponents when needed.
Hartenstein played 27mpg against the Nuggets and Chet played 31mpg.

Chet, KD (or Jabari), Lebron, Gordon, nephew, Randle, JJJ, AD are PFs on Western playoff teams.
Warriors are the only small team.

If we can get away with playing Barnes/Keldon at PF, fine. But right now Wemby/Kornet looks like a way more viable matchup in a lot of games.
It would be ideal if we can get ourselves a SF+ sized elite defensive forward. Whether it be someone really long like McDaniels or a very strong player like Anunoby.

Our Hartenstein = Kornet
Our Chet = Wemby

The Thunder were able to handle all those guys on your list with non SF sized players after Hartenstein and Chet. I think you started the post with the right idea then diverged into the old idea of having to strictly match up to the opponent.

 

[LeBowen]

Our Hartenstein = Kornet
Our Chet = Wemby

The question is if Kornet can play 25mpg+ if needed.
He's obviously everything we need in double big situation, but for how long? He's 30 and he's never played more than 18mpg.

The Thunder were able to handle all those guys on your list with non SF sized players after Hartenstein and Chet. I think you started the post with the right idea then diverged into the old idea of having to strictly match up to the opponent.

Dort and Williams are way bigger than their listed size due to their wingspan and strength. Same goes for Caruso.

We don't have to strictly matchup to the opponent, but if we're smaller then we have to run them off the floor.
I still have PTSD from last season's games against the Grizzlies where Bane just kept running through Devin like he's not even there.

Castle is the only one of our guards who can match up with legit forwards.
If we're talking our forwards, Champ seems too weak to not get exploited by big forwards, Keldon is atrocious defensively and his size doesn't matter, Barnes doesn't have the legs to keep up anymore and Jeremy/Bryant are negatives on offense, meaning we can't play them together with Wemby/Kornet.

 

[Knoxxx]

Players that can attack the rim like KJ does are not common, especially off the bench in the NBA. As far as his defense, I think that will look better now that Kornet gives the Spurs a legit rim protector at all times. And his contract is far more palatable than Vassell’s.

 

[OK Computer]

The question is if Kornet can play 25mpg+ if needed.
He's obviously everything we need in double big situation, but for how long? He's 30 and he's never played more than 18mpg.


Dort and Williams are way bigger than their listed size due to their wingspan and strength. Same goes for Caruso.

We don't have to strictly matchup to the opponent, but if we're smaller then we have to run them off the floor.
I still have PTSD from last season's games against the Grizzlies where Bane just kept running through Devin like he's not even there.

Castle is the only one of our guards who can match up with legit forwards.
If we're talking our forwards, Champ seems too weak to not get exploited by big forwards, Keldon is atrocious defensively and his size doesn't matter, Barnes doesn't have the legs to keep up anymore and Jeremy/Bryant are negatives on offense, meaning we can't play them together with Wemby/Kornet.

So we’re on the same page then. They don’t need to be tall. They just need to be strong, have a decent wingspan, and exhibit defensive prowess. Drake Powell was someone I coveted that fit this archetype.

 

[Exstatic]

The question is if Kornet can play 25mpg+ if needed.
He's obviously everything we need in double big situation, but for how long? He's 30 and he's never played more than 18mpg.


Dort and Williams are way bigger than their listed size due to their wingspan and strength. Same goes for Caruso.

We don't have to strictly matchup to the opponent, but if we're smaller then we have to run them off the floor.
I still have PTSD from last season's games against the Grizzlies where Bane just kept running through Devin like he's not even there.

Castle is the only one of our guards who can match up with legit forwards.
If we're talking our forwards, Champ seems too weak to not get exploited by big forwards, Keldon is atrocious defensively and his size doesn't matter, Barnes doesn't have the legs to keep up anymore and Jeremy/Bryant are negatives on offense, meaning we can't play them together with Wemby/Kornet.

Castle got cooked by Siakam, and usually struggles with big wings. He’s best with like sized or smaller players. He locked up Curry.

 

[LeBowen]

So we’re on the same page then. They don’t need to be tall. They just need to be strong, have a decent wingspan, and exhibit defensive prowess. Drake Powell was someone I coveted that fit this archetype.

Yeah. If we're talking measurements, Bryant is exactly the guy we need.
It just remains to be seen if he'll develop over the next few years.

Castle got cooked by Siakam, and usually struggles with big wings.

I wrote about it during the game, when I said legit forwards I meant 6'6-6'8 guys that are stronger than average. Your Bane, Brown, Amen, DDR type.
I know Siakam is listed at 6'8, but to me he looks closer to 6'10, legit PF size. That's too much for Castle.

 

[Shmurs]

Might as well see what you have with KJ and give him opportunities. We just need Mitch to yank guys for the night when he realizes they don’t have it. These games can’t be workshops to get Keldon to face his demons. He’s gotta slide into what we have going on as a team a little more. From what we can observe it seems like he gets main character syndrome a bit.

 

[Exstatic]

I wrote about it during the game, when I said legit forwards I meant 6'6-6'8 guys that are stronger than average. Your Bane, Brown, Amen, DDR type.
I know Siakam is listed at 6'8, but to me he looks closer to 6'10, legit PF size. That's too much for Castle.

I think we’re pretty much on the same page with this, and I would add that the reason he probably struggles with bigger players isn’t phyisicality, it’s that he’s only a +3 on length, 6’9”. He can be shot over with a fadeaway, or spin move. Not his fault. He’s physical and motivated, and has great instincts.

 

[drpill]

Put me in the "Steph is ideally not a 3" camp. I think he should be put in a position where he can exploit his size advantage rather than being asked to guard bigger players. Certainly he's going to play with two other guards at times and be asked to take on a variety of roles, but I think the team would be best off with a long defensive wing (one who can shoot) to take on a lot of those assignments.

 

[spurraider21]

I know Siakam is listed at 6'8, but to me he looks closer to 6'10, legit PF size. That's too much for Castle.

siakam also has a 7'3 wingspan, and has at least 30 pounds on Castle, its not his ideal assignment at all. then again, Siakam kind of gets his against anybody one on one

Castle should be guarding 1-3, Sochan should be guarding 2-4. Bryant is more similar to Sochan in that respect

 

[scott]

Raw +/- is a pretty dodgy stat. Matt Bonner was the King, and one of the worst defenders on this late championship clubs. I’m pretty sure K played pretty late into the game with 3-4 dleaguers on the floor.

Raw +/- is a perfect stat, so long as you don't look for it to tell you things it isn't designed to. Keldon had a pretty rough +/- last year too (as did Vassell and my man CBass... but so did Fox in SA, tbh). Willing to put all that behind, but I've definitely got my eyes out. Sometimes the style of play that makes a player look best isn't the style of play that helps the team win on the scoreboard.

All the DLeaguers who Keldon was sharing the floor with late into the IND game had positive plus minuses, btw. In fact, Keldon and Dylan (who did not have his best game) were the only two negative +/- on the team that game.

Like I said, not going to put too much stock into one pre-season game... but it's worth keeping an eye on.

 

[Shmurs]

Aliens will have to explain to us the +\- stat someday. It’s the same as in hockey - something that should by all accounts mean something, given enough minutes played, but actually means nothing whatsoever unless it validates bias.

I genuinely don’t understand why it’s not a better story teller. I get all the other stuff that can influence it but you’d think it would equalize over time.

 

[scott]

Aliens will have to explain to us the +\- stat someday. It’s the same as in hockey - something that should by all accounts mean something, given enough minutes played, but actually means nothing whatsoever unless it validates bias.

I genuinely don’t understand why it’s not a better story teller. I get all the other stuff that can influence it but you’d think it would equalize over time.

Serious question... what do you not understand about it?

It merely the point differential while a given player was on the court. I don't know what you mean by "equalize over time", but it tells a perfect story: how well the team performs relative to their opponent when a player is on the court. What else do you want it to tell you?

At the end of the day, Wins and Losses are only determined by team scores, so one could argue that +/- is more meaningful than other advance metrics. I can find other advanced stats to validate bias than I can +/-, since +/- is the only one directly translatable to winning.

 

[Shmurs]

I understand the math of it, yes thanks.

It tends not to be meaningful as a generic stat. And if you look at guys that coaches and GMs would say influence wins, the venn diagram of winners and dudes with elite +\- don’t seem to correlate as strong as you’d expect.

Even at the team level.

 

[OK Computer]

“More than anybody,” forward Julian Champagnie said, “I think he embodies the Spurs to this city.”

Expressnews made a full article on KJ

https://www.expressnews.com/sports/spurs/article/country-boy-keldon-johnson-keeper-spurs-culture-21109774.php?taid=68f6bf21f95e640001fb35ed&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

 

[OK Computer]

“Being here seven years, one thing I’ve noticed is you get what you put into it,” Johnson said. “If you buy into this culture, you will get a lot out of it. If you don’t, it’s hard. That’s what I share with everybody. It may not be aesthetically pleasing to everybody, but they have a plan for you. I’m living testament to that.”

 

[pope]

Aesthetically pleasing?

 

[scott]

I understand the math of it, yes thanks.

It tends not to be meaningful as a generic stat. And if you look at guys that coaches and GMs would say influence wins, the venn diagram of winners and dudes with elite +\- don’t seem to correlate as strong as you’d expect.

Even at the team level.

SGA lead the league (amongst qualifying players) last season in +/-

Here are the +/- per 100 for last years All-NBA Teams.

Giannis - +7.0
Shai - +16.6
Jokic - +10.9
Mitchell - +11.0
Tatum - +9.9

Brunson - +3.1
Curry - +6.2
Ant - +4.9
Lebron - -1.1
Mobley - +11.8

Cade - +3.4
Hali - +4.3
Harden - +6.0
KAT - +7.2
J-Will - +9.6

Seems like there is a pretty strong correlation there.

Obviously the counter to this is that the top players play on the best teams and the best teams have the best +/-, but you can look at the +/- of the best teams (here are the top 4 from last regular season) easily see the story it tells at the bottom of their rankings (starting with the worst on each team):

Worst +/- per 100 on OKC: Malevy Leons, Alex Ducas, Adam Flagler, Ousmane Dieng, Dillon Jones, Branden Carlson... all of their bums

Worst +/- per 100 on CLE: Emoni Bates, Tristan Thompson, Javonte Green, Chuma Okeke, Craight Porter Jr, Luke Travers, Jaylton Tyson... all of their bums

Worst +/- per 100 on BOS: Miles Norris, JD Davison, Torrey Craig, Xavier Tillman, Jordan Walsh... all of their bums.

Worst +/- per 100 on HOU: Jack McVeigh, N'Faly Dante, David Roddy, Nate Williams, Jeff Green, Reed Sheppard, Jock Landale, Cam Whitmore... pretty much all of the guys they got rid of and a rookie.

Again, seems like a stronger correlation than you give credit for.

Here are the Spurs worst +/- per 100 guys: Charles Bassey, Bismack Biyombo, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Steph Castle, Malaki Branham, Jeremy Sochan. Draw your own conclusions.