Analysis Spurs draft assets, cap situation and future projections

[scott]

You think they’re going to pass on his team option for 26-27?

IDK, but that's the beautiful thing about team options... they have that option and aren't committed. They've created an exit ramp for themselves.

The more I think of it, the more I think this is intention by Brian Wright. He's a smart dude. He probably views two-years remaining as the sweet spot for trade value. And in the case of Devin, he happens to have this conveniently placed dip in his pay in his penultimate season.

 

[Ariel]

IDK, but that's the beautiful thing about team options... they have that option and aren't committed. They've created an exit ramp for themselves.

The more I think of it, the more I think this is intention by Brian Wright. He's a smart dude. He probably views two-years remaining as the sweet spot for trade value. And in the case of Devin, he happens to have this conveniently placed dip in his pay in his penultimate season.

I'd like to think he's playing 3D chess, just like I'd like to believe he was when he extended Zach Collins, Vassell, Keldon... it's tempting to feel reassured. Then you look at the evidence, and it's not like he conned the league.

 

[scott]

I'd like to think he's playing 3D chess, just like I'd like to believe he was we he extended Zach Collins, Vassell, Keldon... it's tempting to feel reassured. Then you look at the evidence, and it's not like he conned the league.

Yeah, I don't think he's some sly fox getting one past the league... he's just smart enough to see the obvious. He sees that players with 1 year remaining (plus maybe half a season) have their trade value diminished (Fox, Jimmy) or become very difficult to move for the value you want (Lauri). So Devin and Fox with two years left will fetch whatever return they deserve, without a discount placed upon them because they only have one year left.

That is, of course, unless the vastly underperform their deals... in which case, they'll be more valuable as an expiring. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

 

[Quentin_Compson]

Players like Caruso and Hartenstein have already fulfilled their destiny for OKC, so to speak: They've helped win a championship and might help win another one this season. That doesn't mean they are a big part of OKC's plans two years from now or even one.

 

[spurraider21]

You think they’re going to pass on his team option for 26-27?

if you look at their cap table for next seson, BEFORE you factor in the players under team options (Hartenstein, Dort, Kenrich Williams), they have something approximating 192 mil in salary (and this assumes J-Dub doesnt crack an all-nba team and elevate his cap hit from the current 25% number to something in between 25 and 30)

second apron is expected to be at about 222mil next year. if they let dort and kenrich walk but exercise the Hartenstein team option, that already takes them right up to about 220-221mil

thats before any other signings including their potential draft picks

theyre in a tough spot because of the Sorber injury. if they saw him during his rookie year and felt good about his trajectory, could have made the Hartenstein decision easier

 

[Nike.]

If the Spurs planned to bring back Barnes (probably bench role) and offer Julian an early extension this next offseason, what do you guys think would be acceptable contracts?

 

[poopbox]

If the Spurs planned to bring back Barnes (probably bench role) and offer Julian an early extension this next offseason, what do you guys think would be acceptable contracts?

Absolute no on Julian. He is a scrub who goes through stretches of non scrub play. Anything he does that is not shooting an open 3 and the occasionally good defense is a complete disaster.

 

[ginobilized]

The heel on the baseline recurrences are probably going to diminish Champagnie's value to the FO. The missed FT vs Lakers, too. These things can be tolerated by superstars, but, he's a role player whose job is to shoot. He and Sochan are likely the first players to upgrade this off season.

I'm wondering if a Fox/Randle trade might be considered if Fox doesn't fit in here and Harper continues to excel.

 

[bozhemoi]

The heel on the baseline recurrences are probably going to diminish Champagnie's value to the FO. The missed FT vs Lakers, too. These things can be tolerated by superstars, but, he's a role player whose job is to shoot. He and Sochan are likely the first players to upgrade this off season.

I'm wondering if a Fox/Randle trade might be considered if Fox doesn't fit in here and Harper continues to excel.

I watch a good amount of other teams. Players get their heel on the sideline all the time. Players miss free throws. It's not just him.

 

[brazil]

The heel on the baseline recurrences are probably going to diminish Champagnie's value to the FO. The missed FT vs Lakers, too. These things can be tolerated by superstars, but, he's a role player whose job is to shoot. He and Sochan are likely the first players to upgrade this off season.

I'm wondering if a Fox/Randle trade might be considered if Fox doesn't fit in here and Harper continues to excel.

I don't see why the Spurs would trade Champagnie unless in a package to match salaries but he is great value for 3 m$ a year. You won't get anything better for dat value. besides 26-27 he is a team option.
Sochan is another story for sure

 

[poopbox]

I don't see why the Spurs would trade Champagnie unless in a package to match salaries but he is great value for 3 m$ a year. You won't get anything better for dat value. besides 26-27 he is a team option.
Sochan is another story for sure

Spurs have reached a point as a team where they need to focus on getting good players and not care about "value". Champ is good value but because he is an end of rotation scrub he is also likely to make make more mistakes than good plays and cost you more games than he helps wins. He has had games already this year when he was an absolute trainwreck doing anything but standing in the corner and shooting a wide open 3.

Presti correctly identified that they needed a legit backup center after okc lost to dallas in the playoffs and he did not worry about "value" at all he just went and got IHart who was one of if not the best backup big in basketball. He hilariously overpaid but who cares OKC is not OKC without IHart being able to step in and play for Chet who missed a lot of time last year.

Value is what you focus on when you are tanking and collecting talent. Once you start having expectations of talent and trying to actually win value goes out the window you need to focus on who helps you and who doesn't. I can't think of any championship level team that has focused on "value" once they become a championship level team.

 

[brazil]

Spurs have reached a point as a team where they need to focus on getting good players and not care about "value". Champ is good value but because he is an end of rotation scrub he is also likely to make make more mistakes than good plays and cost you more games than he helps wins. He has had games already this year when he was an absolute trainwreck doing anything but standing in the corner and shooting a wide open 3.

Presti correctly identified that they needed a legit backup center after okc lost to dallas in the playoffs and he did not worry about "value" at all he just went and got IHart who was one of if not the best backup big in basketball. He hilariously overpaid but who cares OKC is not OKC without IHart being able to step in and play for Chet who missed a lot of time last year.

Value is what you focus on when you are tanking and collecting talent. Once you start having expectations of talent and trying to actually win value goes out the window you need to focus on who helps you and who doesn't. I can't think of any championship level team that has focused on "value" once they become a championship level team.

Value is also when you are developing a team. Spurs have not played a single PO game in years, Spurs are not yet a championship level team far from it. And even when you are a championship team and you have bunch of max contracts or close to it see for instance Denver you need players "cheap" to fill your roster ala tim hardaway junior, brown. Denver is projected to reach second apron which is fine for a very short time but is not sustainable... see Boston Celtics. OKC is next on the list to face the issue with Jalen and Chet, we will see how they will handle it.

That's besides the point anyway.. Spurs have bigger problems like Sochan than freaking 3 m$ Champagnie.

 

[Knoxxx]

Our #1 need is a versatile forward that stands at least 6 foot 8 barefoot with a plus wingspan that can rebound, hit 3s, and give some secondary rim protection. We can trade or try and draft such a player. I was eying that kid from Tennessee but he’s surged way up from when I first checked the projection, leaving us more in the Yaxel range. Who actually may not be a bad option.

 

[LeBowen]

Our #1 need is a versatile forward
that stands at least 6 foot 8 barefoot
with a plus wingspan
that can rebound
hit 3s
and give some secondary rim protection
try and draft such a player

Spoiler

 

[scott]

The 6’8” guy who can defend, shoot and rebound just happens to be one of the rarest archetypes in the league… we’re not the only team that “needs” this guy

 

[OK Computer]

The 6’8” guy who can defend, shoot and rebound just happens to be one of the rarest archetypes in the league… we’re not the only team that “needs” this guy

people have convinced themselves that this archetype is so needed… then you look at all the winning teams and see that all but one of them have a player of that archetype (Aaron Gordon) as a key role player. The rest? Either it’s their franchise player (which we are not getting a star at that position) or a player who doesn’t meet that criteria (below 6’9”).

If Carter Bryant was actually competent, would he be stopping a team’s Kevin Durant? No. You don’t play five players with the idea that they will beat their matchups in a 1 on 1. Today’s NBA is all about scheme and pace. You play your own game and try to get the other team to adapt to yours.

 

[LeBowen]

people have convinced themselves that this archetype is so needed… then you look at all the winning teams and see that all but one of them have a player of that archetype (Aaron Gordon) as a key role player. The rest? Either it’s their franchise player (which we are not getting a star at that position) or a player who doesn’t meet that criteria (below 6’9”).

Chet plays that role for OKC.
Rockets have a ton of long wings that can defend.
Hachimura isn't a good rebounder, but he defends and is having a career year from 3pt.
Clippers franchise player is supposed to be that guy.
Timberwolves have McDaniels.
Warriors are undersized and everyone is abusing that.
Grizzlies franchise player isn't that exact type, but is somewhat close to it other than the fact that he can't rebound for some reason.
Mavs have Washington (I know he's 6'7, but plays bigger) even if we exclude Flagg since he's a franchise player type.
Blazers have Camara.
Pelicans have Herb.

We don't need a big 3-D wing at all costs, but it would be really nice if Bryant develops into one. Solves a lot of issues.

 

[OK Computer]

Chet plays that role for OKC.
Rockets have a ton of long wings that can defend.
Hachimura isn't a good rebounder, but he defends and is having a career year from 3pt.
Clippers franchise player is supposed to be that guy.
Timberwolves have McDaniels.
Warriors are undersized and everyone is abusing that.
Grizzlies franchise player isn't that exact type, but is somewhat close to it other than the fact that he can't rebound for some reason.
Mavs have Washington (I know he's 6'7, but plays bigger) even if we exclude Flagg since he's a franchise player type.
Blazers have Camara.
Pelicans have Herb.

We don't need a big 3-D wing at all costs, but it would be really nice if Bryant develops into one. Solves a lot of issues.

So… you’re making a point that because other teams have them, we should have it too even though it’s not directly conducive to winning?

Like you listed Hachimura, Camara, and Herb as if these are guys the team should be game planning for and signing players with the right physical profile in order to make sure they don’t win the game for their teams. But I think this is exactly the wrong approach and if the Spurs are pursuing players to directly match up with role players, then they have bigger problems.

 

[Itzsoweezee]

I would hate to see Barnes go just to get out of the Vassell contract. I just can’t imagine any team trading for him any time soon without some major enticement.

 

[LeBowen]

So… you’re making a point that because other teams have them, we should have it too even though it’s not directly conducive to winning?

No, I'm making a point because most teams in the West have stars with size that we can't really match up with.

Like you listed Hachimura, Camara, and Herb as if these are guys the team should be game planning for and signing players with the right physical profile in order to make sure they don’t win the game for their teams. But I think this is exactly the wrong approach and if the Spurs are pursuing players to directly match up with role players, then they have bigger problems.

I listed them because Knoxxx was talking about 3-D guys and you said there aren't any.
Those aren't the players you gameplan against, but players that can defend opposing stars without much need for adjustment.

Gordon would be a huge issue for us, I won't say bigger than Jokic, but at least Wemby can defend Jokic as good as anyone while Gordon would just abuse our perimeter players in the paint and on the glass.
Luka is probably too big for Castle to defend well without getting into foul trouble.
KD isn't a long-term issue, but Amen could be another player we can't match up with if he develops his offensive game.
I'd say Flagg, but Mavs will probably implode and he won't be a threat.

I'll repeat, it's not a must that we get a big 3-D guy, but it would certainly help.
Bryant's ideal development trajectory would be just the guy we need.

 

[scott]

people have convinced themselves that this archetype is so needed… then you look at all the winning teams and see that all but one of them have a player of that archetype (Aaron Gordon) as a key role player. The rest? Either it’s their franchise player (which we are not getting a star at that position) or a player who doesn’t meet that criteria (below 6’9”).

If Carter Bryant was actually competent, would he be stopping a team’s Kevin Durant? No. You don’t play five players with the idea that they will beat their matchups in a 1 on 1. Today’s NBA is all about scheme and pace. You play your own game and try to get the other team to adapt to yours.

I think this is more of a function of how rare the archetype is, not a matter of the archetype not being valuable.

There just aren't a lot of guys who do all 3 things (shoot, defend, rebound). It's usually two of the three. There aren't a lot of role players who do all 3, because like you said... guys who do all 3 aren't role players... they're star players.

 

[bozhemoi]

Unless a big 3&D wing materializes out of nowhere, I'm not too worried about breaking the bank or lots of assets to get one. We're more likely to have a model similar to the Knicks of lots of guards and smaller wings alongside the star. As long as those guys can play good defense (in the works) and rebound (they can), that's what we need.

 

[LeBowen]

Knicks

OG Anunoby is the biggest SF out there.
Him and Yabusele are taking most of the PF minutes.

 

[bozhemoi]

OG Anunoby is the biggest SF out there.
Him and Yabusele are taking most of the PF minutes.

Yeah and their big is a soft guy who plays on the perimeter. The point is they play mostly guards and wings. I wouldn't say either OG or Yabu are bangers.

 

[LeBowen]

Yeah and their big is a soft guy who plays on the perimeter. The point is they play mostly guards and wings. I wouldn't say either OG or Yabu are bangers.

I'm talking about all this in the context of defense.