Player Sochan's Extension Watch

[Ariel]

Spurs should save their pennies for Champagnie

 

[CGD]

This thread already being the most used on this forum says a lot about how nervous a lot of us are ... for a role player

Honestly, all these are backdoor “was the Fox extension really a good idea?” threads in the end.

The analysis above re the financial outlays was helpful. Returns are early on Harper, but to me it makes it a near lock Fox is traded in the next 2 years. If not for a big fish like Giannis, 2-3 smaller contracts with some that are movable.

 

[CGD]

3y/$33m 3rd year team option

In a heartbeat. Not sure the player does that though.

 

[ambchang]

To put it in perspective, a $10M per player is someone like Kornet, who was a journeyman in the league for 8 years and never averaged over 7pts and 5.3reb a game. That said, he is known to be a great teammate, very smart, elite defender.

A big, or someone who can't shoot at all would be Jonas Valanciunas, solid vet, can score very efficiently inside or up to mid-range, still a better 3pt shooter than Sochan. Minimal playmaking mostly, but a decent passer. Fantastic screen setter but questionable defender from what I could recall.

Vanderbilt, who coincidentally is a good comp to Sochan, but with less potential (or potential potential) got a dea for about $12 per.

Mitch Robinson, not only someone who doesn't shoot 3s, but just somebody who doesn't shoot, like, at all, but a great rebounder (especially offensively) with arguably even LESS offensive game than Sochan, makes about $13M this year.

Herb Jones, who is making about $14M a year now, but will jump to almost $23M/yr (from a $68/3 contract) in two years, is a great defender, can shoot somewhat (one good year out of 4). He's more or less Sochan with a semi-developed jumpshot, who is actually willing to shoot.

Obi Toppin is another good comp. Insane athlete, not the smartest player, can't rebound well for a player his size or jumping ability. Decent shooter, and makes about $15M/year.

Sochan, given his strengths (rebounding, perimeter defence), weaknesses (shooting), and age, should be somewhere between $33/3 and $42/3 based on comps. He may want to bet on himself and get a bigger bag, Spurs may want to hold on and see if he would actually fit on the team, and I can understand both standpoints. If the Spurs can get him on the lower range, then lock him up, otherwise just wait it out.

 

[Exstatic]

Well, that's kind of the problem, it doesn't seem like that is happening any time soon. In any case, it's better to wait and see, if he does then the outlook changes completely for him. Until then, I'm with the don't extend camp.

Recency bias. Things that have happened will continue to happen in the same way.

 

[PanameSpur]

Honestly, all these are backdoor “was the Fox extension really a good idea?” threads in the end.

The analysis above re the financial outlays was helpful. Returns are early on Harper, but to me it makes it a near lock Fox is traded in the next 2 years. If not for a big fish like Giannis, 2-3 smaller contracts with some that are movable.

I'm way beyond any financial aspect at this point tbh.

I think places are limited and CBA is whatever it is, point is only bb judgments should prevail.

Sochan has to this day too many limitations and Carter (or others) have become more worthy of playing and development time.

Ultimately I think the best option for Sochan is to change as well, he needs a team more adapted where his bbiq or poor fundamentals wouldn't be so glaring.

He's be great for the Kings for ex

 

[Shmurs]

To put it in perspective, a $10M per player is someone like Kornet, who was a journeyman in the league for 8 years and never averaged over 7pts and 5.3reb a game. That said, he is known to be a great teammate, very smart, elite defender.

A big, or someone who can't shoot at all would be Jonas Valanciunas, solid vet, can score very efficiently inside or up to mid-range, still a better 3pt shooter than Sochan. Minimal playmaking mostly, but a decent passer. Fantastic screen setter but questionable defender from what I could recall.

Vanderbilt, who coincidentally is a good comp to Sochan, but with less potential (or potential potential) got a dea for about $12 per.

Mitch Robinson, not only someone who doesn't shoot 3s, but just somebody who doesn't shoot, like, at all, but a great rebounder (especially offensively) with arguably even LESS offensive game than Sochan, makes about $13M this year.

Herb Jones, who is making about $14M a year now, but will jump to almost $23M/yr (from a $68/3 contract) in two years, is a great defender, can shoot somewhat (one good year out of 4). He's more or less Sochan with a semi-developed jumpshot, who is actually willing to shoot.

Obi Toppin is another good comp. Insane athlete, not the smartest player, can't rebound well for a player his size or jumping ability. Decent shooter, and makes about $15M/year.

Sochan, given his strengths (rebounding, perimeter defence), weaknesses (shooting), and age, should be somewhere between $33/3 and $42/3 based on comps. He may want to bet on himself and get a bigger bag, Spurs may want to hold on and see if he would actually fit on the team, and I can understand both standpoints. If the Spurs can get him on the lower range, then lock him up, otherwise just wait it out.

All of those guys are capable of existing in a semi-sophisticated half court offense while Jeremy just doesn’t understand basketball in general.

 

[Ariel]

Recency bias. Things that have happened will continue to happen in the same way.

Sure... biased towards the most recent 22 years of his life.

 

[ambchang]

All of those guys are capable of existing in a semi-sophisticated half court offense while Jeremy just doesn’t understand basketball in general.

You keep repeating it as if it’s true and yet there’s no backup. Perhaps watch those guys too. They make mistakes.

 

[Bruno]

Sochan is a flawed player but he has some quality. Jovic got $62.4M/4 years this summer. Sochan should be worth that and maybe a little more.

However, on this year's Spurs team, he isn't even worth $10M per year just because he can't shoot. It's as simple as that to me.

 

[Exstatic]

My guess is 3/$54M.

 

[ambchang]

Sochan is a flawed player but he has some quality. Jovic got $62.4M/4 years this summer. Sochan should be worth that and maybe a little more.

However, on this year's Spurs team, he isn't even worth $10M per year just because he can't shoot. It's as simple as that to me.

that’s a good point about his market price and what he’s worth to the spurs. I’ve been approaching his contract with the later but out in the open market he maybe on the higher end of what I put out earlier on.

 

[spurraider21]

My guess is 3/$54M.

4/54 would be closer to fair for what he brings

 

[Ice009]

4/54 would be closer to fair for what he brings

I'd be down with that, but I could see 3/54 if he shows some improvement shooting wise this upcoming season. Also needs to show better awareness out there team defense wise. If the team sees enough to where they think he can still improve, I guess I'd be OK with the 3/54. He has to show improvement.

 

[LeBowen]

He's not worth a cent over 40/4.
Give him maximum allowed shooting related bonuses.
Otherwise he can bet on himself and wait for next summer.

 

[scott]

The 10/20 deadline for Sochan’s extension is like waiting for the test results on whether you have testicular cancer or not

 

[Ariel]

To put it in perspective, a $10M per player is someone like Kornet, who was a journeyman in the league for 8 years and never averaged over 7pts and 5.3reb a game. That said, he is known to be a great teammate, very smart, elite defender.

A big, or someone who can't shoot at all would be Jonas Valanciunas, solid vet, can score very efficiently inside or up to mid-range, still a better 3pt shooter than Sochan. Minimal playmaking mostly, but a decent passer. Fantastic screen setter but questionable defender from what I could recall.

Vanderbilt, who coincidentally is a good comp to Sochan, but with less potential (or potential potential) got a dea for about $12 per.

Mitch Robinson, not only someone who doesn't shoot 3s, but just somebody who doesn't shoot, like, at all, but a great rebounder (especially offensively) with arguably even LESS offensive game than Sochan, makes about $13M this year.

Herb Jones, who is making about $14M a year now, but will jump to almost $23M/yr (from a $68/3 contract) in two years, is a great defender, can shoot somewhat (one good year out of 4). He's more or less Sochan with a semi-developed jumpshot, who is actually willing to shoot.

Obi Toppin is another good comp. Insane athlete, not the smartest player, can't rebound well for a player his size or jumping ability. Decent shooter, and makes about $15M/year.

Sochan, given his strengths (rebounding, perimeter defence), weaknesses (shooting), and age, should be somewhere between $33/3 and $42/3 based on comps. He may want to bet on himself and get a bigger bag, Spurs may want to hold on and see if he would actually fit on the team, and I can understand both standpoints. If the Spurs can get him on the lower range, then lock him up, otherwise just wait it out.

Well, to put it in perspective we need to add that ALL of those players are PROVEN PLAYOFF PERFORMERS. Do we really think Jeremy would have played significant time on a contender as it is? How many minutes would he have gotten in Boston? Less than Kornet for sure. In fact, as it stands right now, I think pretty much all of the players you mention have a clearer path towards playoff minutes than Sochan. The reality is, Jeremy is going through what a lot of high picks regularly go through, they're given opportunities (minutes, touches) they didn't earn (or well above that), on the basis of upside. It's a long term investment, whose returns diminish as the rookie contract approaches its end and the data available tempers expectations.

To strip this issue to its core, I think it comes down to how you perceive Jeremy going forward. If you judge him on production, I don't think even 10 million a year is warranted, you can get similar (or better) role players who can stay on the floor in the playoffs for that much. He's a non shooter (bad and reluctant), not a good connector (you can see him freeze with the ball in his hands quite often), and his availability isn't what you'd like. On the other hand, he's still 22, a really good defender (I don't question this despite what others might say), and seems like a good locker room guy.

How likely is it Jeremy takes a big leap? How long would it take? How much would it cost the Spurs to keep investing in unearned playing time for him given the current context? Even if you will continue to allocate playing time for development purposes, is he your best bet or would Carter Bryant be a more sensible investment? My guess with the available data at this point is: 1) It is possible Jeremy achieves mediocre shooter status eventually, but not likely and not soon 2) It would come at the expense of the development of higher priority players who need spacing 3) Carter Bryant has a better chance of becoming the player we hoped Sochan could be.

Bottom line, I'd keep him around one more year to see how his development unfolds (so no salary dump or moving him unless he's valued as a positive), but no long term commitment either. This is probably the path that provides the least risk while keeping some upside.

 

[Guru of Nothing]

For a while it's been my belief that 3-yr @ $50M with third year being a team option represents the sweet spot. Basically, give him Zollins money. I think it's a slight overpay on paper, but love the roster vibes ...also, I want to believe he can become an elite level role player for playoff basketball - a Cornbread Maxwell type.

 

[KobesAchilles]

For a while it's been my belief that 3-yr @ $50M with third year being a team option represents the sweet spot. Basically, give him Zollins money. I think it's a slight overpay on paper, but love the roster vibes ...also, I want to believe he can become an elite level role player for playoff basketball - a Cornbread Maxwell type.

Cornbread could put the ball into the hoop

 

[JJSPUR]

For a while it's been my belief that 3-yr @ $50M with third year being a team option represents the sweet spot. Basically, give him Zollins money. I think it's a slight overpay on paper, but love the roster vibes ...also, I want to believe he can become an elite level role player for playoff basketball - a Cornbread Maxwell type.

Zollins was overpaid when he got the contract, and is basically still over paid for what he does today. The Bulls are probably kicking themselves a bit for that deal and don't see the Bulls rushing to give Zollins an extension. I just don't want the spurs to be in that position. The spurs were able to give out large contracts to mediocre players a few years ago, but today with lots more real talent on the roster, its going to be difficult to give big money to so so talent when the actual talent on the team will deserve it more now and down the line.

 

[Exstatic]

4/54 would be closer to fair for what he brings

I think they won’t want to go 4 years, so they bump the money.

 

[spurraider21]

I think they won’t want to go 4 years, so they bump the money.

I’d rather slightly overpay for 4 years than grossly overpay for 3

But even at 4/54 I’d rather not do it at all

 

[BacktoBasics]

I’d rather slightly overpay for 4 years than grossly overpay for 3

But even at 4/54 I’d rather not do it at all

It’s not great but it’s not completely outrageous.

 

[OK Computer]

Camara and Shaedon Sharpe just signed their extensions. Sochan extension incoming…

 

[AFBlue]

4/82 for Camara sets the ceiling IMO. I doubt a deal gets done, but no way it's near $20M/yr. $12-15M/yr seems acceptable, but it hinges heavily on his ability to hit spot up 3s.