Player Sochan's Extension Watch

[CGD]

I'd add Tari Eason to this list... who we could have (and probably should have) just drafted instead of Sochan.

Maybe. I think if he were a Spur we'd also gotten quickly frustrated with him for similar reasons and be debating the merits of extending him too.

 

[OK Computer]

Looking at $ or % without context of the timeline a team is in is not looking at the big picture, tbh. What matters is when Wemby is being paid and Keldon, Vassell, or whoever else is still taking that much space. Comparing it now is futile.

 

[Exstatic]

Maybe. I think if he were a Spur we'd also gotten quickly frustrated with him for similar reasons and be debating the merits of extending him too.

The grass is always greener…

 

[scott]

Maybe. I think if he were a Spur we'd also gotten quickly frustrated with him for similar reasons and be debating the merits of extending him too.

It's a great point and interesting question.

For all the talk of the failures of "the Spurs developmental program", we're really only talking about 3 players: Vassell, Primo, Sochan. Almost all of the FRP prior to and after those 3 have developed just fine. I'd also argue that Devin has developed just fine (he's just overpaid and looks bad because he was picked right ahead of Hali). Primo was just a bad pick, but we actually have no clue how the Spurs development program would have worked on him. Sochan hasn't really developed and people point to the fact he can't shoot as concrete evidence that our developmental program is broken... but maybe Sochan just can't shoot? Not everyone can be taught to be a shooter.

Lonnie and WrongLuka were the two picks prior to that who didn't really "pan out" but I'd argue Lonnie hit about or maybe even slightly above median expectation for his draft position. WrongLuka was a home run swing that whiffed, but isn't that far off from median expectation of his draft position either.

So the question of Tari (which was an oft discussed choice leading up to the draft. Personally I was hope we'd find a way to take them both, but HOU snagged Tari a few spots ahead of our second pick). If he were a Spur would he have developed into the Tari he is today? It's a fair question, and we'll never know.

With that said, Tari is a better player than Sochan is today (IMO, I'll provide some stats below)... so he goes on the "list" that I was responding to as a player I'd target as a wing to add to our squad.

Tari v Sochan comparison:

	Eason	Sochan
MPG (24-25)	24.9	25.3
MPG (Career)	22.8	27.3
Pts/100pos (24-25)	23.5	21.9
Pts/100 (Career)	22.0	19.9
FG% (24-25)	.487	.535
FG% (Career)	.466	.468
3P% (24-25)	.342	.308
3P% (Career)	.345	.290
3PA/100 (24-25)	6.3	3.2
3PA/100 (Career)	5.4	4.3
Reb/100 (24-25)	12.4	12.5
Reb/100 (Career	13.4	10.7
Ast/100 (24-25)	2.8	4.5
Ast/100 (Career)	2.6	4.9
DRtg (24-25)	106	117
DRtg (Career)	110	118
DBPM (24-25)	2.6	-0.4
DBPM (Career)	1.1	-0.7
CraftedDPM (24-25)	2.5	-0.3
DDarko (24-25)	1.7	-0.4

I included some various defensive advanced metrics, because they all have their pros and cons... but Tari grades out above Sochan by every defensive metric (the thing that is supposed to be Sochan's strength). Tari is in facted graded a 94th percentile defender in CraftedDPM for his career.

I don't keep up with the Rockets, so I'm genuinely curious what is the discussion of Tari's extension over at RocketsLand.com. Whatever it is, I'm guessing it's less than what some Spurs fans are thinking should be Sochan's extension.

TL,DR version: Tari is a guy I have my eyes on as a big wing for us. He's basically a better version of Sochan in just about every imaginable way. We could have drafted him instead of Sochan (this is just a fact). Valid question on whether that would have prevented in him becoming what he is today, which is fine. We don't have to draft our entire roster. Tari has developed quite nicely and I'd love him on our team in Sochan's place.

 

[Shmurs]

I don’t think skill development is the same as overall player development. The issue for 100% of the picks before Wemby (and apparently after too, except castle and Harper) is that they don’t process the game well enough.

Maybe the spurs just coincidentally go after guys with IQ issues. Or maybe they had a delinquent head coach who has been interested in everything but winning for too long.

 

[scott]

I don’t think skill development is the same as overall player development. The issue for 100% of the picks before Wemby (and apparently after too, except castle and Harper) is that they don’t process the game well enough.

Maybe the spurs just coincidentally go after guys with IQ issues. Or maybe they had a delinquent head coach who has been interested in everything but winning for too long.

Since you excluded 2 of the 3 picks made after Wemby, are you saying you don't think Bryant processes the game well enough? I haven't gotten that sense in limited action thus far.

I'm not counting SRPs at all, because it's clear the Spurs don't take them seriously and these guys aren't drafted to actually be real members of the franchise going forward.

 

[Joe'sOwl]

First post alert! I think it's worth pointing out that Jeremy Sochan is more to 2 years younger than both Tori Eason, and Jalen Williams from Okc. I think age was a big factor in his selection over those two.

 

[LeBowen]

First post alert! I think it's worth pointing out that Jeremy Sochan is more to 2 years younger than both Tori Eason, and Jalen Williams from Okc. I think age was a big factor in his selection over those two.

Good point, most scouts value youger players higher, but at some point in their development age becomes irrelevant.
Jeremy has had three full year of NBA coaching and hasn't managed to improve his shot. It doesn't matter if he's 22 or 32, some things have nothing to do with age.

 

[RC_Drunkford]

TBH, I like what I've seen from Keldon and Devin this pre-season. Devin seems to be playing smarter, and on defense he is clogging passing lanes and creating events (which he is actually quite good at). I don't know if that is worth $27M/yr and that its the problem. If he were getting paid $18M/yr, he'd be fine.

Keldon is showing something as a potential bench energy scorer. So long as that's his role, I'm fine with rolling with him through the duration of his deal.

this. If Devin plays defense like that and shoots it well while playing offball he can stay.

For Keldon to stay he'd have to be in sixth man of the year conversations while not being a defensive liability.

Sochan just has to develop a jumpshot or he's out the door. Simple.

My prediction is one of those 3 stays, one gets traded. And for one it's 50/50.

 

[Shmurs]

Since you excluded 2 of the 3 picks made after Wemby, are you saying you don't think Bryant processes the game well enough? I haven't gotten that sense in limited action thus far.

I'm not counting SRPs at all, because it's clear the Spurs don't take them seriously and these guys aren't drafted to actually be real members of the franchise going forward.

Bryant is a young bench guy. IQ tbd. Just raw so far.

SRP’s not developing is not really that damning, I agree. But it would have been nice for any of them over the years to catch on. Even Tre was kind of just…there. He came in with skills and poor processing and left with skills and poor processing.

 

[Seventyniner]

I don't keep up with the Rockets, so I'm genuinely curious what is the discussion of Tari's extension over at RocketsLand.com. Whatever it is, I'm guessing it's less than what some Spurs fans are thinking should be Sochan's extension.

TL,DR version: Tari is a guy I have my eyes on as a big wing for us. He's basically a better version of Sochan in just about every imaginable way. We could have drafted him instead of Sochan (this is just a fact). Valid question on whether that would have prevented in him becoming what he is today, which is fine. We don't have to draft our entire roster. Tari has developed quite nicely and I'd love him on our team in Sochan's place.

Vecenie and Simon talked about potential extensions for both Sochan and Eason in their podcast from a few weeks ago. They both agree that Eason should get more than Sochan. Vecenie said 4/80 to 4/90 for Eason, and that the Spurs shouldn't extend Sochan at all but if they do he thinks it should be 4/65 to 4/70.

Sochan would also be difficult to trade in the first year of his extension due to a poison pill, where his salary would count as different amounts for the Spurs and the other team, making the salaries difficult to line up. On the other hand, a 4/65 extension would be small enough to trade into another team's MLE next offseason, perhaps garnering a small asset for the Spurs and creating a MLE-sized trade exception that could be useful later.

The Spurs are operating over the cap anyway, so there's no way for them to get Eason other than trading for him, which it's difficult to see Houston ever doing.

 

[Shmurs]

If Eason gets the ball wide open in the corner, it’s a defensive failure for the defense. If it’s Jeremy, that’s a successful possession for the defense.

This is the easy exercise to do if you want to compare him with other wings.

 

[CGD]

That Eason isn’t a lock for an extension should tell us everything we need to know about Sochans chances. Sochan will be a good RFA test case under the new cap rules next summer

 

[TBdog]

How?
There’s literally no playoff team in the WC with a bench player that makes KJ money. So how could they salary match? They’d have to trade a starter to salary match KJ just to put him on the bench. Makes zero sense.

Cavs Strus
Knicks Hart
Warriors Moody plus filler
Lakers Hachimaru or Vincent and Kleber
Clippers Bogdanvovic
Nuggets Nnaji and Watson
Heat Rozier
Kings Monk (although they need a point)
Hawks Kennard and filler
Bucks kuzmar or Portis
Grizz KCP
Pistons levert

 

[poopbox]

4 games without Sochan. 4 Wins.

 

[Shmurs]

As seen on r/nbaspurs:

“Keegan Murray signed his deal, $28 million a year. Sochan same realm?”

But in a surprise move, most people replying think - no. You should not. Folks six months ago had it as a slam dunk he’d be getting 25 mill and now not so much.

Sniffers have moved onto sniffing roses instead of durian fruit

 

[spurraider21]

yeah... the keegan deal only cements that sochan shouldnt be extended. only makes sense for us if he's getting less than half that. and if im sochan and his agent, i wouldnt accept that im only half the player keegan murray is. let him play out the year and see what kind of offers he gets as a RFA. maybe you negotiate a sign and trade. or you keep him on the RFA tender which would be something like 9.6mil

sucks that he got hurt, because if he played well at eurobasket, showed out in camp/preaseason, they may have taken care of him the way they did with DeJounte Murray back in the day, who really broke out and looked like a stud in that preseason before tearing his ACL

 

[scott]

I like the responses on reddit that quite intelligently that we should absolutely NOT be trying to follow the Kings footsteps at anything

 

[The Truth #6]

Random thoughts:

I was a big Eason fan coming into the draft. I liked both he and Sochan at the time for their toughness and tenacity. The knock on Eason was that he didn't follow the coach's plan (or something vague like that, despite being a statistical marvel) and that his jumper had horrible mechanics, even though he shot low 80s on free throws in college. Yeah, I wanted both. I wanted the Spurs to combine the Black and Branham picks to move up, but obviously didn't happen.

Eason is shorter than Sochan but also has a phenomenal wing span. Anyway, we're not getting him now...time to move on.

As for not developing players, along with their drafting prowess, I think they are mostly drafting high character guys for the later in the rounds picks, and leaving plenty of better options on the table. If Pop was ruined by Kawhi, I wonder how much Wright is trying to avoid another Primo disaster (talent level and scandal) and just going for safe character guys with no expectations on them.

 

[ace3g]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1978635825706303732

 

[KobesAchilles]

Cavs Strus
Knicks Hart
Warriors Moody plus filler
Lakers Hachimaru or Vincent and Kleber
Clippers Bogdanvovic
Nuggets Nnaji and Watson
Heat Rozier
Kings Monk (although they need a point)
Hawks Kennard and filler
Bucks kuzmar or Portis
Grizz KCP
Pistons levert

lol I said Western Conference playoff teams and you talk about Eastern Conference playoff teams and non-playoff Western Conference teams.
And half of those guys you mentioned can’t even be traded for salary for KJ bc they don’t make enough.

Moody makes 13 million a year. Can’t salary match him for KJ. Hachimaru starts for the Lakers and they wouldn’t trade a starter for a bench player especially an undersized bench player. Vincent and Kleber don’t make enough to trade for KJ individually and combined they make too much. Kennard makes 11 million a year.

The Kings wouldn’t trade Monk for KJ at all. That’s a stupid trade for them. And they’re not a playoff team which was your parameter (not mine). There is no way in hell the Knicks trade Josh Hart for KJ. In Denver Nnaji and Watson make a combined 12 million so they literally can’t salary match for KJ. Also KJ makes more than Bogdon too. Portis only makes 13 million this year and is a better player. Kuzma and Rozier make too much money and tbh I think the Bucks like Kuzma for some reason and Roziers contract is about to come off the books at the end of year so I doubt the Heat trade him for KJ

The Grizzlies just recently received KCP and maybe would trade him for KJ. I did think about them but I’m not sure if KCP isn’t their starter this year. But sure let’s say them. So one team. Congratulations

 

[KobesAchilles]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1978635825706303732

I am glad we haven’t done some of those shitty extensions. Rockets are stupid for paying Smith that contract. Dude sucks. And idk how tf Murray’s agent got that deal but man lol at the Kings.

Please Wright stay strong and make this fool earn his new contract.

 

[The Truth #6]

I get an uninformed sense that Wright learns from his mistakes and likely overcorrects. His losses as a GM would be Devin's contract, Zach's contract, and everything about Primo.

After he tried to take a GM victory lap for Devin's presumed ascension by rewarding him with the largest contract in Spurs' history, I sense that he learned from this debacle and will slow his roll, meaning Jeremy isn't getting shit over $12 million a year, but quite possibly Jeremy just hits unrestricted free agency because he can't stay healthy and hit a shot.

Just the ramblings of an armchair endocrinologist...

 

[Seventyniner]

Ironic that a poverty franchise can overpay so badly. Good for Keegan though, get that bag.

 

[TBdog]

lol I said Western Conference playoff teams and you talk about Eastern Conference playoff teams and non-playoff Western Conference teams.
And half of those guys you mentioned can’t even be traded for salary for KJ bc they don’t make enough.

Moody makes 13 million a year. Can’t salary match him for KJ. Hachimaru starts for the Lakers and they wouldn’t trade a starter for a bench player especially an undersized bench player. Vincent and Kleber don’t make enough to trade for KJ individually and combined they make too much. Kennard makes 11 million a year.

The Kings wouldn’t trade Monk for KJ at all. That’s a stupid trade for them. And they’re not a playoff team which was your parameter (not mine). There is no way in hell the Knicks trade Josh Hart for KJ. In Denver Nnaji and Watson make a combined 12 million so they literally can’t salary match for KJ. Also KJ makes more than Bogdon too. Portis only makes 13 million this year and is a better player. Kuzma and Rozier make too much money and tbh I think the Bucks like Kuzma for some reason and Roziers contract is about to come off the books at the end of year so I doubt the Heat trade him for KJ

The Grizzlies just recently received KCP and maybe would trade him for KJ. I did think about them but I’m not sure if KCP isn’t their starter this year. But sure let’s say them. So one team. Congratulations

The numbers are close enough that you could make the numbers work. Regardless, the point, all those teams would play KJ in their playoff rotation, which is what you believe they wouldn't, but rather would play CB. This is the debate, you think CB is the better player for the role. Not only do I disagree with that, it's imo Keldon and Devin would play for playoff teams. Keldon and Devin are legit NBA bodies. You may fairly argue contract or projective growth, but right now, they are NBA worthy players.