Player Harper vs Edgecomb vs Bailey vs WNBA

[tim_duncan_fan]

This is a very late question to ask, but what are Harper's #1/2 pick-level skills?

It's just preseason, and I know he was intentionally trying to tank his stock to get somewhere in particular, but man, Ace Bailey looked butter-smooth out there. He is going to get BUCKETS.

If Harper looks pedestrian, there will be loud chatter.

 

[spurraider21]

This is a very late question to ask, but what are Harper's #1/2 pick-level skills?

It's just preseason, and I know he was intentionally trying to tank his stock to get somewhere in particular, but man, Ace Bailey looked butter-smooth out there. He is going to get BUCKETS.

If Harper looks pedestrian, there will be loud chatter.

1) handling/driving/pick and roll game

2) incredible craft/footwork when getting shots off near the rim, mature beyond his years in that sense (think back to early career TP who could barrel to the rim but struggled to actually get clean shots off until he started nailing the footwork. Harper already shows lots of that)

3) good balance and is able to play/score through contact due to his positional size

4) multi-level scoring. loves getting to the rim, but is also very comfortable with the midrange/pull-up game

5) positional size. 6 foot 4.5 inch, 6 foot 10.5 inch wingspan. iirc this was something like 93rd percentile size for PGs in terms of historical combine measurements, and would even be good sized for a SG


i liked Bailey. and if a team isn't asking him to be a savior and just wants to plug and play him and ask him to shoot, score in transition, and be soemwhat active/disruptive on defense, he should be able to thrive. but if Harper becomes an offense engine, thats about the most valuable type of asset you can get in the NBA. i was one of the bigger Bailey proponents on the board, even after his disappointing combine measurements... but i never seriously considered choosing bailey over harper

 

[spurraider21]

he's also a reasonable defender but i wouldnt say his defense is a #1/2 pick level skill or anything like that

and while his shooting needs work, he's definitely further ahead than Castle was. Castle shot 26.7% from 3 on 2.2 attempts per game, while Harper shot 33.3% on 5.2 attempts per game. a lot of harper's shooting came as the ballhandler with all the defensive attention on him, often pulling up off the dribble, which tanked his percentage (i've seen numbers between 37% and 40% on harper's catch and shoot 3's in college)

meanwhile castle was playing off-ball and teams were really just daring him to shoot. his final 4 performance in alabama really epitomized this. he knocked down a couple of early ones but harper was never really getting looks like this lol

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776816447324295275

 

[Shmurs]

Bailey is a superior fit to the team needs and may also end up being the better player. But the decision between them was in the margins at the time, so what are you going to do.

I’d be a little pissed if this was about “culture”, thinking he doesn’t seem like a “spurs guy” or whatever, when that is currently not a plus trait in a player.

 

[LeBowen]

Wrote about it before the draft, but 6'4 and taller point guards picked in top5 don't bust unless injuries ruin them.

2025: Harper
2024: Castle isn't a point guard, but was used as one a lot last season.
2021: Cade
2020: Lamelo is averaging 24/5/8 over the past 3 seasons despite all the injuries. Would probably be a Trae/Haliburton level player if healthy.
2018: Luka
2017: Lonzo obviously got ruined by injures. I don't think he would've been in top5 if not for Lavar's campaign, but he would've surely been a 15/5/8 guy with all-defense potential if healthy.
2016: Simmons is the only true bust and it could've easily been avoided if he wasn't drafted by a franchise incapable of developing talent. Don't mention Embiid, he would've been an MVP level player even if I was coaching him.
2015: Exum busted because of injuries.

I can go on and on, but you get the point.
Positional size and high IQ are undeniable in Harper's case, those two things alone are enough for him to have a let's say 12/5/8 floor, imo.

Bailey is a superior fit to the team needs and may also end up being the better player. But the decision between them was in the margins at the time, so what are you going to do.

I’d be a little pissed if this was about “culture”, thinking he doesn’t seem like a “spurs guy” or whatever, when that is currently not a plus trait in a player.

The difference before draft wasn't in the margins, Harper was a way better player at everything other than 3pt shooting and Bailey wasn't elite in that regard.
Bailey can end up as a better player, but I wouldn't have picked him over Harper unless we had a chance to get another player or high value pick as a bonus for trading down.

 

[Shmurs]

Wrote about it before the draft, but 6'4 and taller point guards picked in top5 don't bust unless injuries ruin them.

2025: Harper
2024: Castle isn't a point guard, but was used as one a lot last season.
2021: Cade
2020: Lamelo is averaging 24/5/8 over the past 3 seasons despite all the injuries. Would probably be a Trae/Haliburton level player if healthy.
2018: Luka
2017: Lonzo obviously got ruined by injures. I don't think he would've been in top5 if not for Lavar's campaign, but he would've surely been a 15/5/8 guy with all-defense potential if healthy.
2016: Simmons is the only true bust and it could've easily been avoided if he wasn't drafted by a franchise incapable of developing talent. Don't mention Embiid, he would've been an MVP level player even if I was coaching him.
2015: Exum busted because of injuries.

I can go on and on, but you get the point.
Positional size and high IQ are undeniable in Harper's case, those two things alone are enough for him to have a let's say 12/5/8 floor, imo.


The difference before draft wasn't in the margins, Harper was a way better player at everything other than 3pt shooting and Bailey wasn't elite in that regard.
Bailey can end up as a better player, but I wouldn't have picked him over Harper unless we had a chance to get another player or high value pick as a bonus for trading down.

Plug and play wing with high athleticism and shot making ability…5 Baileys win a title before 5 Harpers. Harper being a more well rounded pro player isn’t necessarily the whole story. Bailey’s archetype fits better on OKC, ind, Bos and Denver

 

[LeBowen]

Plug and play wing with high athleticism and shot making ability…

Neither of those two things have been proven enough.
Do I need to list all the 6'7-6'10 plug and play wings with what looked like a good 3pt shot that failed over the years?

5 Baileys win a title before 5 Harpers. Harper being a more well rounded pro player isn’t necessarily the whole story. Bailey’s archetype fits better on OKC, ind, Bos and Denver

Yeah, that's why OKC, IND and BOS were all about non-playmaking wings when they got to the finals...oh, wait.
Theoretically Harper/Castle/Bryant is way closer to to SGA/Williams/Dort than however you want to get Bailey in there.

 

[Itzsoweezee]

The question was never VJ v Harper but Harper v a trade. I was solidly in the trade camp (either Harper or Castle), but the Spurs were never going to do that. Let’s hope that Mitch can figure out how to make a 3 guard lineup work.

One thing I’m sure of is that Vassell is completely redundant. His continued presence on the roster is due solely to the fact that he is a negative asset. That contract was a huge mistake. I wonder if mitch has the guts to bench him (Champagne is clearly the better fit for DV’s role).

 

[Shmurs]

Neither of those two things have been proven enough.
Do I need to list all the 6'7-6'10 plug and play wings with what looked like a good 3pt shot that failed over the years?


Yeah, that's why OKC, IND and BOS were all about non-playmaking wings when they got to the finals...oh, wait.
Theoretically Harper/Castle/Bryant is way closer to to SGA/Williams/Dort than however you want to get Bailey in there.

It really just boils down to how much Bailey’s shot will fall. If he’s a dead eye, then he’s going to be a much more coveted and valuable player than a ball-dominant guard without elite shooting or playmaking.

Harper’s development has a say in this too, obviously. But the best version of Bailey is a more useful player than the best version of Harper.

 

[LeBowen]

It really just boils down to how much Bailey’s shot will fall. If he’s a dead eye, then he’s going to be a much more coveted and valuable player than a ball-dominant guard without elite shooting or playmaking.

That wasn't your point, was it?
You wrote that the decision was in the margins, which obviously wasn't true, Harper was a way better prospect at the time of the draft, even if we exclude Bailey's agent issues.
Harper's only red flag is shooting.
He's got size, high IQ on both ends, was a solid defender, great passer and obviously an elite paint penetrator in college. A complete package.

Bailey's shooting splits weren't impressive for someone who's supposed to be a pure scorer. He didn't get to the rim enough and he had tunnel vision issues, was just thinking about how to score. Defensive IQ was also questionable.
He can put it all together, wouldn't be the first time, but draft day difference was significant.

Harper’s development has a say in this too, obviously. But the best version of Bailey is a more useful player than the best version of Harper.

Best version is such a non-argument.
Best realistic version of Bailey is what...a Rudy Gay? Danny Granger?
Best case scenario Paul George?

Harper's best realistic scenario is closer to Cade/SGA/Harden than Bailey's is to Paul George.

 

[Shmurs]

A realistic scenario for Harper is one of the best scorers in basketball history and the guy that won every award in basketball last year?

It was on the margins until Bailey separated himself with combine measurements and representation issues.

 

[LeBowen]

A realistic scenario for Harper is one of the best scorers in basketball history and the guy that won every award in basketball last year?

Yes, because the similarity between college Cade and Harper is obvious.

It was on the margins until Bailey separated himself with combine measurements and representation issues.

It was on the margins a year ago until Bailey started underperforming compared to the expectations.

 

[spurraider21]

Ace came into last year as the consensus #2. the fact that Harper soon overtook him as the consensus 2 while they literally shared the floor speaks volumes

 

[dn0774]

A realistic scenario for Harper is one of the best scorers in basketball history and the guy that won every award in basketball last year?

It was on the margins until Bailey separated himself with combine measurements and representation issues.

Shai wasn't Shai when he was Harper's age, we can only extrapolate. If Harper is even half the worker Shai is he can be an all-NBA guy.

Shai scored 10 a game in his rookie year and 14 a game in his one and done season. Is Harper hitting Shai levels a realistic expectation? Probably not, but saying its impossible isn't accurate either. Harper was firmly considered ahead of Ace by the end of Rutgers season and before the combine. When the Spurs got the 2nd pick in the lottery the narrative quickly formed as to whether we would take the "obvious number 2 guy" even though he isn't an ideal fit due to Fox and Castle being here.

 

[koriwhat]

Last post on the subject and I'll move on, promise.

If missed shots and empty possessions are your concerns, I take it that you don't watch any other forms of basketball than the NBA? Because that shit happens in Eurobasket, happens in the G-League and D-League, college basketball everywhere... We really take for granted the ease of scoring baskets for humans over 6ft tall - what you describe happens at every level where that isn't the norm. I've personally been to Euroleague games here in Spain where Unicaja, the top team, did that shit repeatedly. Didn't ruin my night or my view of it as a product whatsoever.

You're actively making it political, lol, what's Disney got to do with it? Are you one of those "everything's a woke agenda!!" folks? I'll answer your question anyway, Disney produces lots of movies trying to cater to their audience and what their marketing dept. determines that sells. If the biggest movie studio in the world is making "woke" movie one after the other, maybe it's because they sell? Movies like Frozen, Tangled, and Moana have all been massive international hits, whatever you think of them, just to name a few.

You're not really doing anything to dispel the very evident narrative, but again, I'm done taking this off-topic tbh. Folks being triggered by the WNBA existing is a very Spurstalk topic, old news.

I only watch the NBA with the occasional College ball.

With that said, no one outside of the NBA is asking for the same compensation as those in the NBA except women who can't ball. They aren't even D-League good, Euro good, or YMCA good. I went to a finals game bro and it was the lamest shit ever. A piss poor "product".

As for Disney, it was a comparison that some corporations don't care how much they waste in $ as long as their agenda keeps moving forward, be in political, cultural, or pushed on us.

I'm ok with anyone who likes to watch the WNBA, but I am sick of these "professionals" claiming they're worth millions let alone $30K annually if that.

 

[koriwhat]

Ace came into last year as the consensus #2. the fact that Harper soon overtook him as the consensus 2 while they literally shared the floor speaks volumes

Both did great but Ace was pretty stellar.

 

[ambchang]

I only watch the NBA with the occasional College ball.

With that said, no one outside of the NBA is asking for the same compensation as those in the NBA except women who can't ball. They aren't even D-League good, Euro good, or YMCA good. I went to a finals game bro and it was the lamest shit ever. A piss poor "product".

As for Disney, it was a comparison that some corporations don't care how much they waste in $ as long as their agenda keeps moving forward, be in political, cultural, or pushed on us.

I'm ok with anyone who likes to watch the WNBA, but I am sick of these "professionals" claiming they're worth millions let alone $30K annually if that.

They are asking for $15M mle? First time I’ve heard. Would appreciate some quotes.

 

[spurraider21]

Both did great but Ace was pretty stellar.

Ace didn’t have particularly good shooting numbers for a shooter (Rutgers environment was a killer but Harper still was broadly efficient). And he was also billed as a 6’9 or 6’10 wing when he ended up measuring at like 6’7 which is still well sided for a 3 but he was expected to be some jumbo sized scorer

 

[Ariel]

Ace didn’t have particularly good shooting numbers for a shooter (Rutgers environment was a killer but Harper still was broadly efficient). And he was also billed as a 6’9 or 6’10 wing when he ended up measuring at like 6’7 which is still well sided for a 3 but he was expected to be some jumbo sized scorer

Ace Bailey is 6'7.5" barefoot, he might not be as tall as Durant but that's about the same height as Cooper Flagg, Paul George, LeBron, Tatum, Jalen Johnson, Brandon Miller, and taller than Scottie Barnes, Kawhi, OG Anunoby, Jaylen Brown, Jimmy Butler, Mikal Bridges. People's brains have been warped by decades of lying about height, as if babies came out of the woomb in shoes. 5 years ago he would have passed as 6'9" (in shoes) with nobody saying a thing.

 

[spurraider21]

Ace Bailey is 6'7.5" barefoot, he might not be as tall as Durant but that's about the same height as Cooper Flagg, Paul George, LeBron, Tatum, Jalen Johnson, Brandon Miller, and taller than Scottie Barnes, Kawhi, OG Anunoby, Jaylen Brown, Jimmy Butler, Mikal Bridges. People's brains have been warped by decades of lying about height, as if babies came out of the woomb in shoes. 5 years ago he would have passed as 6'9" (in shoes) with nobody saying a thing.

Like i said, his size is fine for a 3. He’s not undersized or anything. But part of his appeal is he was being billed as being taller. If wemby ended up measuring 7’1 with a 7’6 wingspan, those are still great numbers but maybe he’s not the transcendental player he is now

 

[Ariel]

Like i said, his size is fine for a 3. He’s not undersized or anything. But part of his appeal is he was being billed as being taller. If wemby ended up measuring 7’1 with a 7’6 wingspan, those are still great numbers but maybe he’s not the transcendental player he is now

I cited the best small forwards in the league, even some power forwards, and those taller than him are the rare exception. In fact I'd argue most of those in the first group are more 4 than 3 (Cooper Flagg, Tatum, Jalen Johnson, current LeBron). That's not "fine for a 3", that's well above average for a 3 and fine for a 4. He's probably the same height as TMac was in reality. Also, something that's huge for his game is his high release point, his elevation and his quick release, that makes him functionally taller than his nominal height. Only impediment may be his attitude, if he's willing to be coached into playing more off ball and relocating constantly, rather than expecting the ball on isolation (where his poor handles won't allow him to shake off his man), it's going to be very difficult to contest him.

 

[blueguy]

I would be willing to entertain the idea that Ace will be a better player than Harper in a few seasons....but....it's literally been a couple of preseason games lol. It should not change your initial thoughts of these dudes.

 

[ambchang]

Ace, with his skill set, can become a taller klay Thompson if he learns to cut and get to open spaces efficiently, then just shoot it when he gets the ball. He doesn’t have that right now and if he’s too focused on dribbling around and pulling up, he could end up being an inefficient chucker.

Harper has to learned to play off ball more than he has to learn to play on ball now. I’m sort of sold with him handling the ball and running an offence but on this team he’s at best third in the pecking order.

 

[koriwhat]

They are asking for $15M mle? First time I’ve heard. Would appreciate some quotes.

"Pay us what we deserve" What are they deserving of? Their words, their egos, their asinine requests...

Maybe, it's just the loud ones i've seen on tv or yt that create such a shit image of that league.

Either way, 20-30k/yr seems reasonable for them seeing how it's not a profitable league and they play a child's game which they're no good at.

 

[Arguendo]

It really just boils down to how much Bailey’s shot will fall. If he’s a dead eye, then he’s going to be a much more coveted and valuable player than a ball-dominant guard without elite shooting or playmaking.

Harper’s development has a say in this too, obviously. But the best version of Bailey is a more useful player than the best version of Harper.

Harper's play-making would look a lot more elite if Bailey was able to convert, which he really didn't. The rest of the team was garbage shooting .427/.321 excluding Harper/Bailey. True 2-man show, but Harper carried the load and was (much) better.

Bailey 6'7.5", 202.8lbs, 7'0.5" WS, 8'11" SR. 10.97 Agility, 2.78 Shuttle, 3.12 Sprint, 27.5 Vert, 34.5 Max Vert. 17.6/7.2/1.3/1/1.3 on .460/.346/.692 .with a .536 TS% (below avg), 24.3% FTr (avg) and 11.0% TOV. 4.5 BPM, .112 WS/40.
Harper 6'4.5", 213.2lbs, 6'10.5" WS, 8'6" SR. 11.07 Agility, 3.05 Shuttle, 3.16 Sprint, 30.5 Vert, 36.5 Max Vert. 19.4/4.6/4/1.4/0.6 on .484/.333/.750 with a .587 TS% (elite for a guard), 41.9% FTr (elite) and 12.7% TOV. 9.2 BPM, .166 WS/40.

Harper will always be a big PG and in line for SG. Bailey is basically in line at SF and small for PF. Even if Bailey is a LT guard I'm still team Harper.
Close athletically but Bailey has the edge. However one took the bulk of the pressure and the other performed worse as the secondary player. One gets to the line at a exceptional rate and the other is average.
One always handled the ball with the D focus on him, still produced elite efficiency, and turned in over nearly the same with a 3.5X AST% while the other was below avg efficiency with a very negative A/TO. Obiv not apples to oranges, Bailey should be a better rebounder and maybe a more versatile D-fender but personally I'd bet on Harper's professionalism/mentality/growth way over Bailey's.