Draft 2026 NBA Draft Prospects Thread

[OK Computer]

Okay I found it… I didn’t realize there is some selection bias at play here… it is the 10 worst BPM of players taken in Rd 1 in 2023. So guys like Yessafou, Cenac, Ament (and Peat, Mullins, etc) are the worst of the projected first rounders.

Not sure how meaningful this really is, but it’s interesting.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/3JywYNfnlJ

I’m not even sure where he’s getting these BPM numbers. They’re different from databallr. I switched over to barrtovik, and the numbers don’t match either. Odd.

I get what he’s doing, but I think saying that if a player is not with their team anymore then that player is a failure is shaky analysis. Also, with the bias part… concluding that Ben Sheppard is some sort of failure because he’s a backup… yet the funny thing is if I sort this upside down and look at the 10 best - what is Kobe Brown up to? Walter Clayton’s a backup. Kris Murray?

 

[SpursBills]

Posted in another thread, but thought I’d also put here:

I think in general BPM is a nice quick and dirty rule-out method, but the general threshold for poor BPM players that raises real red flags for me is like <2 in their pre-draft year of which there are very few, and possibly <4.

If you set for <2 in the last 10 years, you're missing on Jaden McDaniels but you'd be right about Blake Wesley, Ziaire Williams, and Jalen Hood-Schifino (most obvious bust ever). Also possibly Dalton Knecht and Nique Clifford, who posted <2 during their junior years as 21 year olds but played 1-2 more years after that.

Setting the filter for >2 and <4 and you're missing a high level talent in Maxey, Dejounte Murray, Kyshawn George, and Jaylen Brown
You'd be right about Ben Sheppard, Henry Ellenson, Keon Johnson, Dariq Whitehead, Josh Christopher, Cam Reddish, Kira Lewis Jr, Troy Brown, Josh Primo, Malachi Richardson, Dalen Terry
TBD: Ace Bailey, Isaiah Collier, Bub Carrington, Cody Williams, Liam McNeeley

For reference, the above mentioned prospects were all drafted in the first round in the last 10 years, so they were all considered high level prospects at one time

 

[scott]

I think in general BPM is a nice quick and dirty rule-out method, but the general threshold for poor BPM players that raises real red flags for me is like <2 in their pre-draft year of which there are very few, and possibly <4.

If you set for <2 in the last 10 years, you're missing on Jaden McDaniels but you'd be right about Blake Wesley, Ziaire Williams, and Jalen Hood-Schifino (most obvious bust ever). Also possibly Dalton Knecht and Nique Clifford, who posted <2 during their junior years as 21 year olds but played 1-2 more years after that.

Setting the filter for >2 and <4 and you're missing a high level talent in Maxey, Dejounte Murray, Kyshawn George, and Jaylen Brown
You'd be right about Ben Sheppard, Henry Ellenson, Keon Johnson, Dariq Whitehead, Josh Christopher, Cam Reddish, Kira Lewis Jr, Troy Brown, Josh Primo, Malachi Richardson, Dalen Terry
TBD: Ace Bailey, Isaiah Collier, Bub Carrington, Cody Williams, Liam McNeeley

For reference, the above mentioned prospects were all drafted in the first round in the last 10 years, so they were all considered high level prospects at one time

Great breakdown… I knew you’d have some great context to add!

 

[OK Computer]

I think in general BPM is a nice quick and dirty rule-out method, but the general threshold for poor BPM players that raises real red flags for me is like <2 in their pre-draft year of which there are very few, and possibly <4.

If you set for <2 in the last 10 years, you're missing on Jaden McDaniels but you'd be right about Blake Wesley, Ziaire Williams, and Jalen Hood-Schifino (most obvious bust ever). Also possibly Dalton Knecht and Nique Clifford, who posted <2 during their junior years as 21 year olds but played 1-2 more years after that.

Setting the filter for >2 and <4 and you're missing a high level talent in Maxey, Dejounte Murray, Kyshawn George, and Jaylen Brown
You'd be right about Ben Sheppard, Henry Ellenson, Keon Johnson, Dariq Whitehead, Josh Christopher, Cam Reddish, Kira Lewis Jr, Troy Brown, Josh Primo, Malachi Richardson, Dalen Terry
TBD: Ace Bailey, Isaiah Collier, Bub Carrington, Cody Williams, Liam McNeeley

For reference, the above mentioned prospects were all drafted in the first round in the last 10 years, so they were all considered high level prospects at one time

3 successes out of 15 total is a 20% success rate for >2 and <4. This could probably be taken a step further by comparing outcomes relative to draft position.

What is the success rate for >4 and < 6 and so forth, I wonder?

 

[OK Computer]

My draft board
Nate Ament’s profile
Cameron Carr’s profile
Thomas Haugh’s profile
Hannes Steinbach’s profile
Allen Graves’ profile
Joshua Jefferson’s profile
Tounde Yessoufou’s profile
Karim Lopez’s profile
Aday Mara’s profile

————————————

Zuby Ejiofor is a high risk, high reward pick at 20… because, like the others in this tier, you have to project a bit and believe in what he could become.

The risk is simple. If he doesn’t reach that projection, you’re looking at a player who might not make it to a second contract with the Spurs. The reward is just as clear if it hits.

Defensively, he might be the best in this class. You could argue Jayden Quaintance, but there are real questions there with health, and you won’t see Quaintance picking guys up full court the way Zuby does. He’s 6’9” with a frame similar to Jerami Grant, and he plays with a special kind of defensive presence and intensity.

The concern is on offense. For most of the college season, he played like a traditional big. Low post positioning, setting screens, operating inside. There were flashes of something more. His movement is more fluid than your typical big. He’d attack from the perimeter, take threes, show some high post playmaking, but it wasn’t consistent. Toward the end of the season, especially in the tournament, the encouraging sign was that he started taking more threes with confidence and was more aggressive driving the ball.

This is where the projection comes in, and also where the caution comes from. I’ve been down this path before with a player like Precious Achiuwa. Similar build, similar tendencies in college. I bought into the idea that he could transition into more of a wing at the next level, especially based on his high school tape. That never happened. He stayed more of what he was.

If Zuby follows that same path, then this pick doesn’t work.

The difference for me is I didn’t see Precious as a potential defensive menace the way I do with Zuby. Back then, I was more focused on the idea of a tall 6’9” player turning into something like a T-Mac type. I don’t think that’s what this is. With Zuby, the defensive foundation is real.

The upside case is that he continues developing those perimeter skills on offense while maintaining his defensive impact. If that happens, you’re looking at a Jerami Grant-type player who can defend at a high level and give you versatility on offense. That’s one of the best outcomes you can get at this spot.

And honestly, the best thing about Zuby might not even be the on-court stuff. He plays like he cares deeply about the team. He’s beloved at St. John’s, won scholar-athlete of the year, and in interviews he constantly talks about the collective. That lines up directly with how current Spurs players talk.

He comes across as someone who would fully buy in. The type of player who takes pride in where he is and who he plays for. The same way Keldon has embraced San Antonio, Zuby feels like someone who would do the same.

That’s why it’s high risk, high reward. The offensive projection has to hit, but if it does, you’re getting one of the better two-way players in the class.

 

[SpursBills]

3 successes out of 15 total is a 20% success rate for >2 and <4. This could probably be taken a step further by comparing outcomes relative to draft position.

What is the success rate for >4 and < 6 and so forth, I wonder?

I think once you get >4, the data becomes kind of noisy, and you start getting into what is a "success" - for example, Patrick Williams, Cam Thomas, Isaac Okoro - do you consider these guys failures or successes?

BPM 4-6:
Hits (8): Jarrett Allen, Keyonte George, Anthony Edwards, Malik Beasley, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, Jalen Smith, Anthony Black
Busts (13): Nassir Little, Marquese Chriss, Kevin Knox, Jett Howard, James Bouknight, Lonnie Walker IV, Malaki Branham, Romeo Langford, Cam Whitmore, Josh Green, Jaden Springer, Kobe Bufkin, Tyler Lydon
Mid (3): Cole Anthony, Patrick Williams, Precious Aichuwa
TBD: Ja'Kobe Walter, Egor Demin, Drake Powell, Jeremiah Fears, Will Riley, Jakucionis, Rob Dillingham, Yves Missi

BPM 6-8:
Hits (24): Collin Sexton, Jordan Poole, Moses Moody, Immanuel Quickley, Benedict Mathurin, Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, Jayson Tatum, Brandon Ingram, Bam Adebayo, Cason Wallace, Coby White, Paolo Banchero, De'Aaron Fox, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Saddiq Bey, Ty Jerome, Cade Cunningham, Miles Bridges, Domantas Sabonis, Santi Aldama, Malik Monk, NAW
Busts (19): Wade Baldwin, TyTy Washington, Jaden Ivey, Gradey Dick, Omari Spellman, Dalen Terry, Zeke Nnaji, DJ Wilson, Jeremy Sochan, Taylor Hendricks, Jordan Hawkins, Bones Hyland, Isaiah Jackson, AJ Griffin, Jarrett Culver, TJ Leaf, Jarace Walker, Johnny Davis, Julian Strawther
Mid (13): Dennis Smith Jr, Tre Mann, Day'Ron Sharpe, Kevin Huerter, Josh Okogie, Noah Clowney, Brice Sensabaugh, Landry Shamet, Aaron Holiday, Kyle Kuzma, Taurean Prince, Isaac Okoro, Cam Thomas
TBD: Ryan Dunn, Tre Johnson, Thomas Sorber, Carter Bryant, Jared McCain, Derik Queen, Yanic Niederhauser

I don't think there's a huge difference from 6-10 range but I will say that once you filter for BPM > 10 in freshman/sophomores, there are basically no busts and the vast majority are either stars or high impact role players.

 

[SpursBills]

Two weird statistical profiles for this draft:

Allen Graves -
5 STL% and 5 BLK% with bottom 5% defensive RAPM is really really weird. On film the guy looks like he's got lead feet on the perimeter, and I don't think he can play center at all because SC was trying to play at the 5 a bunch and this is what probably tanked his defensive metrics. This makes him likely position-locked at the 4. However, there's also a lot to like. Clearly high IQ, and high stock% + high feel, great production at a young age usually means low bust rate.

Ebuka Okorie -
I did not think he'd declare for the draft, but he just did, and if the Spurs ever wanted to draft a Fox replacement to step in in a couple years in the late 1st round, this guy is the best value bet in this draft to do it.
One pretty good statistical predictor of high level offensive outcomes is unassisted makes at the rim/100, as it serves as a marker for self-created rim pressure. Guys with low makes generally can't create much pressure in the pros (D'Angelo Russell, Lonzo Ball, Bub Carrington - all < 2) while guys with high makes usually can (Fox, Dylan Harper, Ja Morant - all >5). Aside from his tape, I think this is how OKC was able to hit on Ajay Mitchell, as he had 99th% UA_rim/100 in combination with good height in spite of an otherwise middling statistical profile.
Okorie has the highest number of UA rim makes /100 (6.4) of any guard prospect I've seen in recent memory. This is actually a massive statistical outlier. Combined with the fact that he was carrying significant offensive load and his defensive RAPM was still above average (unlike, say, Acuff or Philon), he's still just 18, he has an excellent STL%, and he's an 80+% FT shooter who shoots 35% on good volume on primarily self-created 3 pointers (41% assisted 3s), and this is a potential 2 way offensive engine prospect hiding in plain sight. If the Spurs want to try and make Fox a long term part of the rotation years down the road or they want to trade him for a guard, then this is a moot point. But if they think they need to offload Fox in the future, this is a strong candidate at 20 who can succeed him.

 

[Wembethical]

Okorie is fantastic. Pretty sure once workouts begin his stock will rise significantly and he’ll end up in the middle of the first if not higher.

There is something that could prevent this and it’s the high number of lead guards projected between 5 and 15, which makes it possible that one falls down to 20, thus creating significant value even if the Spurs aren’t exactly looking for that profile. Of course a trade down/out is also possible.

 

[OK Computer]

Wouldn’t you want a Fox replacement to be on a cost controlled rookie contract that starts near the end of Fox’s current contract + the start of Castle’s extension? Otherwise, if you get one now AND they turn out to be pretty good, you have to pay them at an inconvenient time where we’ll have three max contracts already.

I don’t think it’s the time yet to invest in a point guard (assuming Fox will be on his way out).

 

[BatManu20]

Allen Graves is an interesting offensive prospect with a nice physical profile for the 4 position at 6'9 225 lbs. with a 7'0 wingspan, but his porous defense and overall lack of athleticism are a real turnoff for me. I've seen him comped to Kyle Anderson which makes me weary of him. With that said, he declared for the draft earlier this week and might be a realistic possibility at 20 if we keep the pick, though he definitely wouldn't be my first choice, and I'm not sure MATFO would draft a defensive liability either.

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[onechance87]

Not sure what to think of graves.Hes not athtetic and not that good at finishing at the rim.He might be smaller then 6,9 as well.

 

[bozhemoi]

On the one hand, Santa Clara turned out J Will and Podz, both of whom are good players. On the other, the conference has grown markedly worse since NIL has changed mid majors.

Alan Graves also came off the bench for them, which is crazy to me. So, many of his stats are against benches in a declining conference. That's pretty rough to me. I would definitely take him in the early second, but if he's mocked in that range he should just transfer into a high major conference.

 

[SpursBills]

Wouldn’t you want a Fox replacement to be on a cost controlled rookie contract that starts near the end of Fox’s current contract + the start of Castle’s extension? Otherwise, if you get one now AND they turn out to be pretty good, you have to pay them at an inconvenient time where we’ll have three max contracts already.

I don’t think it’s the time yet to invest in a point guard (assuming Fox will be on his way out).

Yes, ideally if Fox gets traded, his replacement is on a cost-controlled rookie contract. At the same time, you also don't want a rookie to step in right away and start playing 3rd guard minutes deep into the playoffs, especially not a 19 year old. Ideally, you keep the rookie guard around for at least a year for some seasoning before throwing him into the playoff rotation. The counterargument is to draft an older guard like Ajay Mitchell or Payton Pritchard, which is also valid, but I don't know how many of those guys are going to be available moving forward. Additionally, the identity of this team is really defense and rim pressure and usually the guys who are excellent rim pressuring guards go very early in the draft.

Ultimately, it depends on what you think the timetable is for if Fox needs to be moved. Obviously, you want to move him as late as possible which is a perfectly valid opinion and in that case, I agree that you wait to draft a guard until probably summer 2027 or 2028. However, there is a contingent within Spurs fandom that thinks that Fox needs to be moved next summer or during 2027-2028 which is also a perfectly valid opinion, in which case you can't necessarily rule out drafting a guard.

 

[SpursBills]

Allen Graves is an interesting offensive prospect with a nice physical profile for the 4 position at 6'9 225 lbs. with a 7'0 wingspan, but his porous defense and overall lack of athleticism are a real turnoff for me. I've seen him comped to Kyle Anderson which makes me weary of him. With that said, he declared for the draft earlier this week and might be a realistic possibility at 20 if we keep the pick, though he definitely wouldn't be my first choice, and I'm not sure MATFO would draft a defensive liability either.

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Think you're underselling Slow-Mo a little bit there, my guy. Kyle Anderson is 5th in his draft class in VORP and 7th in overall win shares. Any #20 pick who's top 5-10 in career VORP/win shares is going to be outperforming his draft position pretty comfortably. Also, I'd say that impact-wise Kyle Anderson is probably the opposite of Graves, as his defensive impact has been excellent (easily top 50 at his peak) throughout his career while his offensive impact has been more hit and miss. Closest analogue of Kyle Anderson in this class is Josh Jefferson I believe.

 

[BatManu20]

Think you're underselling Slow-Mo a little bit there, my guy. Kyle Anderson is 5th in his draft class in VORP and 7th in overall win shares. Any #20 pick who's top 5-10 in career VORP/win shares is going to be outperforming his draft position pretty comfortably. Also, I'd say that impact-wise Kyle Anderson is probably the opposite of Graves, as his defensive impact has been excellent (easily top 50 at his peak) throughout his career while his offensive impact has been more hit and miss. Closest analogue of Kyle Anderson in this class is Josh Jefferson I believe.

Maybe I am. Fat Head isn't a horrible player, but he's a limited one and a career 7 PPG player who was part of a weaker draft class outside of a handful of guys (Jokic, Embiid, AG, Randle, etc.) so the metrics don't exactly blow me away tbh. Either way, I'm still not real fond of the idea of drafting a defensive liability, especially in a deep draft where there should be better options available at 20. But as I also stated, he's an interesting offensive talent so he wouldn't be the worst pick either. Ultimately I think MATFO will go in an another direction, especially with the emergence of CB, but we'll see. I trust their judgement for the most part when it comes to these younger prospects.

 

[BatManu20]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043373580042514644

 

[Correct Crusader]

these kids are getting PAID.

 

[scott]

Can someone who watches College BB explain it to me like I’m 5… why the “entering draft and the transfer portal”?

Is that basically a “either way I’m not going back to my old school… but if someone offers me big NIL money I might skip the draft if the mocks don’t have me high enough?”

 

[John B]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2043373580042514644

Not bad. We can never have enough of shooters at 4. He gives me the Peja vibes

 

[bozhemoi]

Can someone who watches College BB explain it to me like I’m 5… why the “entering draft and the transfer portal”?

Is that basically a “either way I’m not going back to my old school… but if someone offers me big NIL money I might skip the draft if the mocks don’t have me high enough?”

They're testing the draft process like any other era. See what teams say, where they might go, what to work on if they don't like their draft range.

Second thing is saying that they're available to switch schools. Some of these are legitimate in the sense of -- "I don't think I'm getting the playing time I need (because other players are coming in or whatever) and so I'm open to joining another program. Sometimes, I believe they're looking to get more money from their current program. (Which I don't mind, as it's their right.)

What I don't know about is the timing, because I think the transfer window closes fairly soon. So they have to get info about whether they'll be drafted because college teams will want to know who they'll get.

 

[Ariel]

Can someone who watches College BB explain it to me like I’m 5… why the “entering draft and the transfer portal”?

Is that basically a “either way I’m not going back to my old school… but if someone offers me big NIL money I might skip the draft if the mocks don’t have me high enough?”

Pretty much. Happens every year, they test the waters and then make a decision and pull out of the draft when it becomes clear they won't get the offer they need to make the jump. Two cases worth mentioning last year were Cedric Coward and Yaxel Lendeborg. Coward had an offer from Duke but eventually team input gave him reassurance and entered the draft (went #11) while the best Lendeborg could get was a second round promise from Philly (#35) so he went back to college to play for Michigan.

 

[DTW]

Yes, ideally if Fox gets traded, his replacement is on a cost-controlled rookie contract. At the same time, you also don't want a rookie to step in right away and start playing 3rd guard minutes deep into the playoffs, especially not a 19 year old. Ideally, you keep the rookie guard around for at least a year for some seasoning before throwing him into the playoff rotation. The counterargument is to draft an older guard like Ajay Mitchell or Payton Pritchard, which is also valid, but I don't know how many of those guys are going to be available moving forward. Additionally, the identity of this team is really defense and rim pressure and usually the guys who are excellent rim pressuring guards go very early in the draft.

Ultimately, it depends on what you think the timetable is for if Fox needs to be moved. Obviously, you want to move him as late as possible which is a perfectly valid opinion and in that case, I agree that you wait to draft a guard until probably summer 2027 or 2028. However, there is a contingent within Spurs fandom that thinks that Fox needs to be moved next summer or during 2027-2028 which is also a perfectly valid opinion, in which case you can't necessarily rule out drafting a guard.

Fox will range from $49.8 to $61.7 million annually over the life of his contract. To give you an idea of the likelihood of someone being able to mostly absorb that, this off season the three teams projected to have cap space are the Nets with $31 million, the Bulls with $60 million and the Lakers with possibly $53 million.

Whoever acquires him would also probably like to get off of a guard making significant money in the process to not only make the math work but clear a spot and the Spurs, now inner circle contenders, would probably want one in return so as to not create a hole.

All of which is to say, I don't think they'll prioritize drafting a lead guard or creator as a replacement.

 

[Vienna]

I think in general BPM is a nice quick and dirty rule-out method, but the general threshold for poor BPM players that raises real red flags for me is like <2 in their pre-draft year of which there are very few, and possibly <4.

If you set for <2 in the last 10 years, you're missing on Jaden McDaniels but you'd be right about Blake Wesley, Ziaire Williams, and Jalen Hood-Schifino (most obvious bust ever). Also possibly Dalton Knecht and Nique Clifford, who posted <2 during their junior years as 21 year olds but played 1-2 more years after that.

Setting the filter for >2 and <4 and you're missing a high level talent in Maxey, Dejounte Murray, Kyshawn George, and Jaylen Brown
You'd be right about Ben Sheppard, Henry Ellenson, Keon Johnson, Dariq Whitehead, Josh Christopher, Cam Reddish, Kira Lewis Jr, Troy Brown, Josh Primo, Malachi Richardson, Dalen Terry
TBD: Ace Bailey, Isaiah Collier, Bub Carrington, Cody Williams, Liam McNeeley

For reference, the above mentioned prospects were all drafted in the first round in the last 10 years, so they were all considered high level prospects at one time

Good points. And if the BPM theorie would work, it would work both directions, right. But in the top 10 best BPM all time you find Sindarius Thornwell, Brandon Clarke, Frank Kaminsky, Trayce Jackson-Davis and Denzel Valentine, all had a fantastic BPM over 15. So, BPM might not exactly be the best formular to find players who will, or will not succeed in the NBA.

 

[SpursBills]

I don't think it necessarily has to work both ways - something can be an excellent "rule out" tool without necessarily being a good "rule in" tool. There are all sorts of predictive tests some of which have stronger positive predictive value and some of which have negative predictive value. Someone who produces well may not have other qualities like requisite athleticism or size to succeed in the NBA, but on average people who don't produce don't typically succeed in the NBA. Notice the examples that I gave were already 1st round picks, so they all had something whether athletically, size-wise, tape-wise to make them coveted prospects already.

To speak to your example though, I think one confounding factor here is age. The combination of production x young age (freshmen/sophomore) is usually predictive of success in the pros. My other rebuttal to your counterexamples is that this is a prediction method, and no prediction method is perfect, it just needs to be more sensitive than existing methods. So if you sort freshmen/sophomores with high BPM, you're inevitably going to get some busts like Michael Beasley, Ethan Happ, Dejuan Blair, or Trey Burke, but just because a test doesn't catch every prospect doesn't necessarily mean that it doesn't have predictive value.

Finally, this is why I called it "quick and dirty". Pulling up a list of BPMs for a prospect takes like 30 seconds, while scouting hundreds of players takes...longer than that. It's more meant to be a quick tool that gives you a reasonable idea of a prospect's odds of success, but is definitely not meant to be the end-all be-all.

 

[scott]

IDK what you’re talking about… Scouting is super easy. I just listen to SpursBills and OK Computer and it never lets me down.