Draft 2026 NBA Draft Prospects Thread

[KobesAchilles]

Give me Mullins

 

[bozhemoi]

I'm zagging a bit and finally looking at Cameron Carr. I didn't watch any Baylor this year; last year, I did, and really thought Edgecombe was sneakily good and underrated. He got drafted high but still blew up this year. Super athletic, dynamic player. Carr is crazy athletic and his shot is nice. Questions about decision making, and he's older, although he didn't play much last year at Tennessee due to injury.

Player Comparison | Tankathon

Compare the statistics of 2026 NBA Draft prospects to each other and prospects from previous drafts. Stats are normalized to per-36-minutes numbers.

www.tankathon.com

That is stats comparison between him, Edgecombe, and Ja'Kobe Walter, all similar sized guys from Baylor. With Keyonte George, they've been turning out good guards who have possibly been better than expected, with the exception for Walter, who has been more workmanlike and probably not that great. In advanced stats, etc., Carr is closer to Edgecombe than to Walter. They've all been a bit under the radar as the program hasn't been great lately.

I'm guessing due to his profile Carr will go in the lottery, however, but who knows with this draft.

 

[BatManu20]

I'd be surprised if Carr goes in the lottery tbh considering he'll turn 22 early in his Rookie season, but we've seen crazier things happen. He's definitely easy to like as a prospect though.

 

[Snaq O'Meal]

Dominant performance by Yaxel. He did it all today. He's definitely too good/old to be playing CBB anymore. Needs to be in the league. He'll be long gone by the time we pick too so no need to debate if he's our guy. I just hope he ends up in Miami over Charlotte or OKC.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2038353315260498356

There were all sorts of question marks around his game last year, mostly on whether he can maintain that production against top competition in college. Hence he had to return to CBB. And he excelled this year while playing a different position to accommodate Morez Johnson and Aday Mara in the starting lineup.

 

[Vienna]

Metcalf and Rucker with a mock on their latest no ceilings show (pre S16).
Metcalf has Spurs pick Lopez, Rucker pick is Haugh.
IMO some interesting thoughts from Rucker: he says, after diving into Lopez films from his whole season he became a believer and moved him from the 20s to 11.
he said saw huge steps in Lopez's development over the season, especially on defense.
and he loved the fit when Metcalf picked him for the Spurs. I see it like Rucker: Lopez would be such a great fit, but he will likely be picked much higher.

 

[OK Computer]

Metcalf and Rucker with a mock on their latest no ceilings show (pre S16).
Metcalf has Spurs pick Lopez, Rucker pick is Haugh.
IMO some interesting thoughts from Rucker: he says, after diving into Lopez films from his whole season he became a believer and moved him from the 20s to 11.
he said saw huge steps in Lopez's development over the season, especially on defense.
and he loved the fit when Metcalf picked him for the Spurs. I see it like Rucker: Lopez would be such a great fit, but he will likely be picked much higher.

Link to what you’re referring to?

This is the latest one I could find on their channel:

They chose Darius Acuff for the Spurs here from a month ago, which makes me think maybe mock drafts and assessing team needs is not a strength of theirs.

 

[Vienna]

Link to what you’re referring to?

This is the latest one I could find on their channel:

They chose Darius Acuff for the Spurs here from a month ago, which makes me think maybe mock drafts and assessing team needs is not a strength of theirs.

 

[Vienna]

I try a draft night scenario for my Spurs picks. (if not traded)

in this order, whoever from the group is left on the board

FRP (#20): young forward project, might take two years till ready
Lopez, Peat, Swain, Evans, Allen

SRP (#35): BU center, who could play right away
Reed, Condon, Vesaar

SRP (#42): best shooter left on the board
Karaban, Sandfort, Momcilovic

SRP (#45): best draft & stash option
de Larrea, Daniels, Suigo

 

[Ariel]

FRP (#20): young forward project, might take two years till ready
Lopez, Peat, Swain, Evans, Allen

I see the vision and it's tempting, but you also have to acknowledge that it's not just about time till they get there but whether they'd get there at all.

The risk associated with good teams drafting on potential is that there's no more free, hand-out minutes if they're not good enough to carve themselves a role early on, so they can't get the playing time they need to develop and (typically) stagnate. Meanwhile, you compound the damage by passing up on other opportunities due to the clogged pipeline for fear of watching them flourish elsewhere, only to lose them in a few years, be that to free agency, the expansion draft, or whatever.

That is an inherently riskier path than taking someone with an easier path to minutes early on, like Krivas, Mara, Cam Carr or Labaron Philon (leaving Lendeborg out since I've come to accept he won't be available). This doesn't mean they cannot end up really good players, but requires a very careful evaluation of how likely and juicy the reward is vs a realistic evaluation of the costs. After all, weren't you pointing out how badly Spurs have missed their picks in the mid part of the first round for the last decade or so? I think we might want to go for singles if we're to improve that hit rate, especially now that the high end core is already in place.

 

[Vienna]

I see the vision and it's tempting, but you also have to acknowledge that it's not just about time till they get there but whether they'd get there at all.

The risk associated with good teams drafting on potential is that there's no more free, hand-out minutes if they're not good enough to carve themselves a role early on, so they can't get the playing time they need to develop and (typically) stagnate. Meanwhile, you compound the damage by passing up on other opportunities for fear of watching them flourish elsewhere, only to lose them in a few years, be that to free agency, the expansion draft, or whatever.

That is an inherently riskier path than taking someone with an easier path to minutes early on, like Krivas, Mara, Cam Carr or Labaron Philon. This doesn't mean they cannot end up really good players, but requires a very careful evaluation of how likely and juicy the reward is vs a realistic evaluation of the costs. After all, weren't you pointing out how badly Spurs have missed their picks in the mid part of the first round for the last decade or so? I think we might want to go for singles if we're to improve that hit rate, especially now that the high end core is already in place.

Jesus, you remember every post I did.......
but as I wrote: I think option one should be to trade the pick and I'm all in they should try. (not only because they are historically bad in that range). I'm one of the 7 votes who voted for a trade.
but just because I think they should trade, doesn't mean they won't use the pick and so it's still fun to think about the best pick available. Jalen Johnson was a #20 pick, right?
regarding minutes and development, Carter is an example, it is possible. even with the core in place. but they will face questions, especially extensions of Barnes, Keldon and Champ (who rightfully might ask for more money, than Spurs can afford, considering the upcoming max contracts).

 

[Bruno]

An important factor about the draft is how contract extension negotiations with Champagnie will go. Because Champagnie's extension will include Spurs declining their 2026/2027 team option, talks will happen before July. Spurs will know during the draft if Champagnie will be with them long term or he is on his way to leave as an unrestricted free agent in 2027.

 

[Ariel]

Link to what you’re referring to?

This is the latest one I could find on their channel:

They chose Darius Acuff for the Spurs here from a month ago, which makes me think maybe mock drafts and assessing team needs is not a strength of theirs.

The only thing of value in that channel is the season highlights, those I like. Otherwise, it's not worth the time to listen podcasts that are nothing but verbose opinions stretched for hours and hours. It's a shame that there's a trend of less video breakdowns than there were in previous years (the box and one, hoop intellect) in favor of bloated talk, those compilations were really helpful to narrow down a long list of players to a select few for a deep dive.

 

[OK Computer]

The only thing of value in that channel is the season highlights, those I like. Otherwise, it's not worth the time to listen podcasts that are nothing but verbose opinions stretched for hours and hours. It's a shame that there's a trend of less video breakdowns than there were in previous years (the box and one, hoop intellect) in favor of bloated talk, those compilations were really helpful to narrow down a long list of players to a select few for a deep dive.

The most valuable content online to me are the videos Hardwood Hoops Central puts out: hours long videos of highlights and lowlights of a single player. Otherwise, I try to search for full college games online which there are not enough of. I was only able to find two full games of Santa Clara to do a deep dive on Allen Graves, for example. This is why I try to catch games live more.

 

[bozhemoi]

I'd be surprised if Carr goes in the lottery tbh considering he'll turn 22 early in his Rookie season, but we've seen crazier things happen. He's definitely easy to like as a prospect though.

Yeah, I'd have to draw up what the lottery might be. There's 4-5 undersized guards taking up some of the first 10-12 slots, guys the Spurs wouldn't look at. People say the top 10 are locked in right now (more or less).

Tankathon, for example, has Karim Lopez before Carr, but I don't think that will happen. Carr's athleticism is freakish and he's hitting close to .400 from deep. Lopez doesn't really do anything great at this point. I marked Carr, at least statistically, as similar to Edgecombe, and I think that makes sense. He's much shorter than my next comparison, but he's also similar to Trey Murphy in ways, who was kind of a questionable defender at Virginia but an exceptional shooter (better than Carr).

Anyway, I feel like he'll go somewhere in the teens and it would suck that OKC might take him. I'm not sold, of course, but he's really intriguing if he's there, the idea of getting a semi-Edgecombe type at budget prices.

 

[Mugen]

Will never be opposed to drafting another shooter, totally fine with them taking a look at Mullins as the eventual Dev replacement.

 

[BatManu20]

 

[BatManu20]

Yaxel going top-10 at that age would be nuts. Pretty sure that'd be the highest a near 24 year-old has ever been drafted tbh.

 

[Vienna]

Yaxel going top-10 at that age would be nuts. Pretty sure that'd be the highest a near 24 year-old has ever been drafted tbh.

Ever? In the good old days they drafted 23 years old players at #1. not so long ago Buddy Hield was picked at 6.

 

[BatManu20]

Ever? In the good old days they drafted 23 years old players at #1. not so long ago Buddy Hield was picked at 6.

Completely forgot about Buddy Hield. He was 24 when he was drafted in the lottery a decade ago. Good call. But outside of him I'm pretty sure Yaxel would be the oldest to go top-10, at least in the last 35 years unless I'm forgetting someone. He'll turn 24 three months after the draft. Chris Duarte was almost 24 when he was drafted in the lottery a few years ago by Indiana, but he didn't go top-10.

 

[BacktoBasics]

Completely forgot about Buddy Hield. He was 24 when he was drafted in the lottery a decade ago. Good call. But outside of him I'm pretty sure Yaxel would be the oldest to go top-10, at least in the last 35 years unless I'm forgetting someone. He'll turn 24 three months after the draft. Chris Duarte was almost 24 when he was drafted in the lottery a few years ago by Indiana, but he didn't go top-10.

Duarte started off looking like decent low level role player. Then he just fell off the earth.

I remember ST talking about him being NBA ready right out of the gate.

 

[BatManu20]

Duarte started off looking like decent low level role player. Then he just fell off the earth.

I remember ST talking about him being NBA ready right out of the gate.

Yup. He made All-NBA 2nd Rookie Team his first year and then his production dropped off significantly each year after then and he was out of the league after his 4th season. Pretty wild.

 

[Mugen]

I think Wagler is gonna be special tbh. Hoping he doesn't go to Dallas.

 

[Vienna]

Completely forgot about Buddy Hield. He was 24 when he was drafted in the lottery a decade ago. Good call. But outside of him I'm pretty sure Yaxel would be the oldest to go top-10, at least in the last 35 years unless I'm forgetting someone. He'll turn 24 three months after the draft. Chris Duarte was almost 24 when he was drafted in the lottery a few years ago by Indiana, but he didn't go top-10.

Araujo was a #8 pick in 2004, but yeah, from 2004 up there were no other 23+ players in the top 10 outside Hield and Araujo.
I think 2016 was an interesting draft regarding learning expirience for many teams. strange draft, produced some good players, but you rarely see so many total busts in the 1st round.
on the one hand it was said, hey, Brogdon fell to 35, because of his age, he should have been picked in the lottery rather than, say, Kris Dunn.
and next the same people say, hey Kris Dunn shouldn't have been picked that high, because old players don't have enough upside left. anyway, I think teams learned, not to use top picks for players older than 22.
2016 was the last draft with two players that old drafted that high. they rather use late 1st or 2nd round picks on such players and hope for a Brogdon, White, Siakam type hit.
that said, I would be totally surprised if Yaxel will be picked top 10. even if there were no maturity issues.
every year the mocks overrate older players regarding their expected draft position.
like last year many mocks had Clifford ranked much higher than his eventual position.
I think Yaxel will be drafted in the low teens and Haugh and Stirtz will fall to end of 1st round.

 

[spursfanfromafar]

Yaxel going top-10 at that age would be nuts. Pretty sure that'd be the highest a near 24 year-old has ever been drafted tbh.

I think the oldest was Dikembe Mutombo. Who finished college at the age of 25 from Georgetown and was drafted 4th at age 25 by the Nuggets in 2001. Pretty remarkable story for a man who barely spoke any English, came to college, graduated and then went to the NBA as an ace basketball defensive wizard.

 

[Ignazzz]

Deke was 35 during draft.