Player The Lifelong Residency of the Ever-Important Heart and Soul of the Spurs, Keldon Johnson

[scott]

I understand the math of it, yes thanks.

It tends not to be meaningful as a generic stat. And if you look at guys that coaches and GMs would say influence wins, the venn diagram of winners and dudes with elite +\- don’t seem to correlate as strong as you’d expect.

Even at the team level.

Who are some of these guys who coaches and GMs say influence wins? Let's look up their +/- relative to their teams. I'll bet most of them rank relatively high up on their respective teams.

 

[ambchang]

SGA lead the league (amongst qualifying players) last season in +/-

Here are the +/- per 100 for last years All-NBA Teams.

Giannis - +7.0
Shai - +16.6
Jokic - +10.9
Mitchell - +11.0
Tatum - +9.9

Brunson - +3.1
Curry - +6.2
Ant - +4.9
Lebron - -1.1
Mobley - +11.8

Cade - +3.4
Hali - +4.3
Harden - +6.0
KAT - +7.2
J-Will - +9.6

Seems like there is a pretty strong correlation there.

Obviously the counter to this is that the top players play on the best teams and the best teams have the best +/-, but you can look at the +/- of the best teams (here are the top 4 from last regular season) easily see the story it tells at the bottom of their rankings (starting with the worst on each team):

Worst +/- per 100 on OKC: Malevy Leons, Alex Ducas, Adam Flagler, Ousmane Dieng, Dillon Jones, Branden Carlson... all of their bums

Worst +/- per 100 on CLE: Emoni Bates, Tristan Thompson, Javonte Green, Chuma Okeke, Craight Porter Jr, Luke Travers, Jaylton Tyson... all of their bums

Worst +/- per 100 on BOS: Miles Norris, JD Davison, Torrey Craig, Xavier Tillman, Jordan Walsh... all of their bums.

Worst +/- per 100 on HOU: Jack McVeigh, N'Faly Dante, David Roddy, Nate Williams, Jeff Green, Reed Sheppard, Jock Landale, Cam Whitmore... pretty much all of the guys they got rid of and a rookie.

Again, seems like a stronger correlation than you give credit for.

Here are the Spurs worst +/- per 100 guys: Charles Bassey, Bismack Biyombo, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Steph Castle, Malaki Branham, Jeremy Sochan. Draw your own conclusions.

I generally like to compare players on the same teams to take away the effect of different teams, especially for role players. If you put klay Thompson on the blazers his entire career, I can bet his +/- will look a lot worse. Even if you look at LeBron’s year by year it goes up and down, more due to his teammates than him.

Which also leads to why players on the spurs have to have a strong +/- with wemby.

 

[scott]

I generally like to compare players on the same teams to take away the effect of different teams, especially for role players. If you put klay Thompson on the blazers his entire career, I can bet his +/- will look a lot worse. Even if you look at LeBron’s year by year it goes up and down, more due to his teammates than him.

Which also leads to why players on the spurs have to have a strong +/- with wemby.

I agree. Like all stats, it's not perfect, but it's a really good initial indicator and it does perfectly explain the thing it is intended to. It's especially useful when you use it with different Wowy combinations.

It's funny that people criticize +/- but are okay with NETRTG, which is the exact same thing, just over 100 possessions.

 

[NotoriousHOP]

The Keldon I saw this preseason is someone useful to the team. Basically Keldon the undersized power forward. The slimmed down, trying to be a wing Keldon of previous years was not what we needed.

If he uses his barrel to the basket style to provide points during scoring droughts and can manage to pick up his 3pt percentage a bit, then he can be a solid contributor. If not, his value is compromised.

 

[Exstatic]

I agree. Like all stats, it's not perfect, but it's a really good initial indicator and it does perfectly explain the thing it is intended to. It's especially useful when you use it with different Wowy combinations.

It's funny that people criticize +/- but are okay with NETRTG, which is the exact same thing, just over 100 possessions.

Netrtg is a team stat. +/- is an individual stat within a team game, and one that the player doesn’t completely affect, it’s also who’s on the court with him for only those period of time he’s on the court.

 

[scott]

Netrtg is a team stat. +/- is an individual stat within a team game, and one that the player doesn’t completely affect, it’s also who’s on the court with him for only those period of time he’s on the court.

NetRtg is also an individual stat. If you go to BBRef, every player page has ORtg and DRtg. NetRtg is just the delta between the two.

 

[OK Computer]

BIG TIME REBOUNDS

BIG TIME BENCH SCORING

HE’S OUR LU DORT

THE PERFECT ROLE PLAYER

 

[MannyIG]

I understand the math of it, yes thanks.

It tends not to be meaningful as a generic stat. And if you look at guys that coaches and GMs would say influence wins, the venn diagram of winners and dudes with elite +\- don’t seem to correlate as strong as you’d expect.

Even at the team level.

Why would I ever take people impressions over long term statistical measurements? Humans are generally really bad at objective judgment but the stats aren't.

 

[TDomination]

Are we the only dudes glad that KJ is still a Spur? BigBody always finds a way to get buckets and he did just that again lastnight.

I gotta find my post but in a thread full of KJ bashing, I mentioned his energy and play reminds me of Malik rose. And those kind of players can be a great asset for championship teams. Limited but 100% heart and effort every second they are on the floor. That kind of energy is contagious. I’d love for KJ to stay for life as a spur.

 

[Chinook]

NetRtg is also an individual stat. If you go to BBRef, every player page has ORtg and DRtg. NetRtg is just the delta between the two.

Net rating is an individual stat, but it's very different than plus-minus. It's a calculated stat rather than a measured one, and it has methodology that makes it more situational than merely factual. It's closer to 82games.com's net-PER stat. The stat is arguably closest to plus-minus is on/offs, which is basically team stats scaled to 100 possessions.

I didn't even know folks still used Net Rtg. It's pretty archaic at this point.

 

[MannyIG]

I've always been happy he's been a Spur. First of all, I don't think many people know how to properly analyze a role player. We saw it in the championship years where people here thought any number of great additions to the championship teams were problems. I mean people here thought Parker was a problem half the time. It seems that most get that superstars are good, but when it comes to a guy like Matt Bonner, Patty Mills, or Rasho, people just have a really difficult time understanding if they are ultimately a positive impact or not because they can't see past the deficiencies. Keldon does some things really well, and does some other things really poorly, but one thing that has made it hard is that he's had a different role in almost every single season with the Spurs and this might be his first season with a coach that is actually checked in and running a coherent system. So now (maybe - its early), Keldon can just focus on doing things that are helping the team instead of being forced to be something he's not. I'm starting to see the same from Devin, too. Devin playing mostly without the ball in his hands is looking pretty decent.

 

[Chinook]

Keldon's gotten better and better the more he's asked to be an energy forward rather than a perimeter creator. Whoever told Johnson he should be playing SF/SG really hurt Keldon's career. I'm glad he lost weight for his health and longevity, but he should be out there setting girthy screens and short-rolling like a Wegovy Jared Sullinger. Instead, they tried to turn him (and everyone else in that era) into an on-ball star and set him back years of development.

 

[DTW]

With Barnes looking to have lost another step, Sochan injured and an awkward fit, Olynyk injured and either Kornet or him alongside Wembanyama a spot minute look, I thought he'd be a sneakily important.

That might have been an understatement. He might flat out be their best option at PF. Good for him, bad for Spurs.

 

[PanameSpur]

So happy for him!

He's a dawg, he's the locker room anchor, and I want him so bad to find his place as the 6th man for the long term

 

[Chinook]

With Barnes looking to have lost another step, Sochan injured and an awkward fit, Olynyk injured and either Kornet or him alongside Wembanyama a spot minute look, I thought he'd be a sneakily important.

That might have been an understatement. He might flat out be their best option at PF. Good for him, bad for Spurs.

The biggest issue with Barnes is his consecutive-starts streak. I don't think the Spurs will end it unless they trade him. Barnes off the bench would really help add shooting and vet savvy to the second unit. The starting unit will continue to need shooting when Fox switches in for Champ, but they shouldn't depend on Harrison to carry that responsibility himself.

 

[wemvp]

When he plays like this off the bench his locker room leadership and energy becomes way more effective. Dude isn't going anywhere if this is him consistently.

 

[DTW]

The biggest issue with Barnes is his consecutive-starts streak. I don't think the Spurs will end it unless they trade him. Barnes off the bench would really help add shooting and vet savvy to the second unit. The starting unit will continue to need shooting when Fox switches in for Champ, but they shouldn't depend on Harrison to carry that responsibility himself.

Agreed. But who would start in Barnes' stead anyway? Johnson is more suited as an energizer off bench, where it's easier to control minutes and matchups.

Slim pickings on trade front after Markkanen. Near as I can see, Toppin might be best bet.

 

[spurraider21]

Agreed. But who would start in Barnes' stead anyway? Johnson is more suited as an energizer off bench, where it's easier to control minutes and matchups.

Slim pickings on trade front after Markkanen. Near as I can see, Toppin might be best bet.

Carter Bryant trial by fire

or more realistically, just Champagnie. when Fox comes back. it becomes Fox/Castle/Vassell/Champagnie/Wemby. one of julian/barnes will move to the bench, one will stay

 

[scott]

Net rating is an individual stat, but it's very different than plus-minus. It's a calculated stat rather than a measured one, and it has methodology that makes it more situational than merely factual. It's closer to 82games.com's net-PER stat. The stat is arguably closest to plus-minus is on/offs, which is basically team stats scaled to 100 possessions.

I didn't even know folks still used Net Rtg. It's pretty archaic at this point.

Mathematically, NetRtg is literally +/- per 100 possessions.

 

[DTW]

Carter Bryant trial by fire

or more realistically, just Champagnie. when Fox comes back. it becomes Fox/Castle/Vassell/Champagnie/Wemby. one of julian/barnes will move to the bench, one will stay

Last season, when it was still more so about development, sure. This season, when it's all about winning, nah.

I don't think Champagnie is stout enough to defend the four and that would leave the bench overloaded with players to defend the four and five anyhow.

 

[spurraider21]

I don't think Champagnie is stout enough to defend the four and that would leave the bench overloaded with players to defend the four and five.

how stout is Barnes when it comes to defending the four?

 

[DTW]

how stout is Barnes when it comes to defending the four?

He at least has years of experience doing it and an extra 10 pounds.

They've never shown an inclination to have Champagnie do so.

 

[OK Computer]

Champagnie’s problem is that he’s a poor inside scorer to be a 4. He’d strictly be on the perimeter on offense, limiting the team’s versatility on offense.

 

[Em-City]

Are we the only dudes glad that KJ is still a Spur? BigBody always finds a way to get buckets and he did just that again lastnight.

I'm in the "i don't hate kj as a spur" camp, but to me the urgency is getting a legit 3&d wing to play as a big sf, or pf. If keldon can facilitate that kind of acquisition then I'll have to say thanks for the memories

 

[Shmurs]

Best way to screw all of this up is to put him in as a starter.

His role now is perfect for his skillset. Go knock bodies around and hype up the 2nd unit while leaving the creation to the more skilled playmakers. Once we have all 3 guards this crystallizes even more. But he’s gotta understand that he’s not going to play himself into being a starter in this league. He will be a bench guy for the rest of his career. If he embraces that he’s going to be great. If he doesn’t he’s going to be terrible.