Player The "It's My Time" Busted Clocktower of Devin Vassell

[twodeep]

LOL Spurs Digest thinks fans are being too harsh on Vassell of course homer fans in the comments are like people are acting like it's their 25M. Showing they have no understanding of how the cap system works

Does Wright have the balls to make a trade before the deadline an unload Vassell for some solid bench players or add some picks for an upgrade

 

[Exstatic]

Do you understand how the cap system works? His money isn’t even a minor issue until Castle’s extension would kick in.

No, it’s not my $25M, but neither is it yours. Take a chill pill. Be a little patient. People hated the Zach Collins contract, but guess what? It was the biggest chunk of money to go out in the De’Aaron Fox trade.

 

[LeBowen]

I'm gonna throw a curveball at everyone and present some stats that may blow your minds...

Last year I observed at one point during the season that Devin Vassell made every lineup combination he participated in worse. This year, that isn't necessarily the case, though the hate for Devin seems to have risen (though I will also add my season average Grade for him is 3.25 and the Community's is 3.14).

Below are the On/Off's for 2-man combinations last year, and this year. These are not small sample sizes either, Vassell has at least 50 minutes playing with each of the players listed (this season). For clarity, the number you see is the difference it NetRating for the player on the left when they share the court with Devin versus when they play without Devin. So a negative number means that the team was worse when Devin played with a given player versus when the player played without Devin. A positive number means the team was better when Devin was on the court with the player.

As you can see, last year, almost every player combination was made WORSE with Devin on the court. But this year, the exact opposite is true, other than with KornDog.

People will knock NetRating, but it's the stat that best represents the stat that matters most: the score. And the fact is that Devin on the court is making our team better this year!

I'm going to be watching as this develops and updating this table. I think Devin has mostly been fine this year (and at time, quite good)... and I'm a Devin hater! $27MM/yr is too much to pay a 13ppg 4th or 5th option... but he's actually doing a good job in that role, salary aside.

I think I might start tracking this for other players as well.......

I'd say comparing Devin's on/off with other players of similar role would give us a better insight of his actual contribution.
Champ probably being the best player to compare him with since both nominally play SF in most lineups and are supposed to be the best shooters on the team alongside Barnes.
Keldon being the second best comparison.
I'd say Harper would be the other one to compare him with, but there's not enough data yet due to his injury.

Devin has better net rating than both Champ and Keldon, but could it be just because he plays more minutes with Wemby as a starter?

As we can see, Devin has a big advantage over both Champ and Keldon even when we include Wemby in the lineups.
How about two man lineups without Wemby?

Same thing again. It's pretty much Devin>Keldon>Champ regardless of the added variable. With Keldon having some concerning lineups that have been really bad.

Maybe Devin is just a winning player and we don't appreciate him enough?

 

[twodeep]

The question is he 2 X better than Keldon or 8X better than champ is the real question

 

[scott]

I'd say comparing Devin's on/off with other players of similar role would give us a better insight of his actual contribution.
Champ probably being the best player to compare him with since both nominally play SF in most lineups and are supposed to be the best shooters on the team alongside Barnes.
Keldon being the second best comparison.
I'd say Harper would be the other one to compare him with, but there's not enough data yet due to his injury.

Devin has better net rating than both Champ and Keldon, but could it be just because he plays more minutes with Wemby as a starter?

As we can see, Devin has a big advantage over both Champ and Keldon even when we include Wemby in the lineups.
How about two man lineups without Wemby?

Same thing again. It's pretty much Devin>Keldon>Champ regardless of the added variable. With Keldon having some concerning lineups that have been really bad.

Maybe Devin is just a winning player and we don't appreciate him enough?

I'm almost done building a matrix that shows every two-player combination, I will start a new for it... but Devin's impact is quite positive (though Harper's is mind blowing, in a limited sample size).

These aren't perfect stats, but the definitely open your eyes to a different way of thinking about Devin.

Stay tuned!

 

[LeBowen]

The question is he 2 X better than Keldon or 8X better than champ is the real question

He's obviously not.
The question which he has to answer by the end of the season is if he's worth the contract he's on.

 

[CGD]

Not a cap guy, so could someone please explain what we think the rational was for the Spurs structuring Dev’s deal the way they did? It’s not quite a descending or flat deal. Nor did the Spurs know they would land Vic at the time the deal was made. Just curious the thinking behind the structure— like was it made to be traded the year he makes the lowest amount (year 4)?

It went 29, 27, 27, 24, 27

 

[scott]

Not a cap guy, so could someone please explain what we think the rational was for the Spurs structuring Dev’s deal the way they did? It’s not quite a descending or flat deal. Nor did the Spurs know they would land Vic at the time the deal was made. Just curious the thinking behind the structure— like was it made to be traded the year he makes the lowest amount (year 4)?

It went 29, 27, 27, 24, 27

I have a theory (that is confirmed by nothing other than coincidence and my own biased thoughts) that Brian sees player trade value at its peak with 2 years remaining. So with Vassell, it could indeed make him slightly easier to trade with that lower number. Both Vassell and Fox's deals with two years left coincide with Castle and Harper extensions, which would be the right time to trade them (if you're going to trade them), which feeds my theory but of course proves absolutely nothing.

 

[Exstatic]

Not a cap guy, so could someone please explain what we think the rational was for the Spurs structuring Dev’s deal the way they did? It’s not quite a descending or flat deal. Nor did the Spurs know they would land Vic at the time the deal was made. Just curious the thinking behind the structure— like was it made to be traded the year he makes the lowest amount (year 4)?

It went 29, 27, 27, 24, 27

From his bbref page:

Signed extension Tuesday, October 3, 2023.

That was not only after the lottery, but after we drafted Vic.

 

[LeBowen]

Spurs gambled on his upside, nothing wrong with that.
The extension was signed after a season in which he made a lot of improvement and looked like a great player to have.

The issue isn't gambling on potential and failing, keeping those players after it's obvious it's not going to work out is the issue.
If Devin doesn't get his shit together until the end of the season, he has to go next summer. Simple as that.
We surely won't move him before then.

 

[Exstatic]

Spurs gambled on his upside, nothing wrong with that.
The extension was signed after a season in which he made a lot of improvement and looked like a great player to have.

The issue isn't gambling on potential and failing, keeping those players after it's obvious it's not going to work out is the issue.
If Devin doesn't get his shit together until the end of the season, he has to go next summer. Simple as that.
We surely won't move him before then.

Posters have actually shown, using a couple of different metrics, that he has gotten his shit together.

DVHOTTC

 

[LeBowen]

Posters have actually shown, using a couple of different metrics, that he has gotten his shit together.

DVHOTTC

Those were my lineup stats.

But I'm more of an eye test guy.

His shit is together until the 27 million a year variable comes into play.
If he was on like 15, noone would complain.

 

[Exstatic]

Those were my lineup stats.

But I'm more of an eye test guy.

His shit is together until the 27 million a year variable comes into play.
If he was on like 15, noone would complain.

Eye test is for haters. Doesn’t mean shit.

 

[scott]

I'll reiterate what I've said a few times... Devin has been fine (or dare I say, good) this season. I'm slightly above consensus on my grades of him this year, but it's pretty close. The impact stats seem to back up that his a positive player this year. That is fantastic. Generally speaking, I think he's adapted fairly well to his new role.

The problem, of course, is that he is in a role that we'd never want to pay someone $27MM/yr for the next 4 years (there is that 3rd year when he'll make a little less). If he were an expiring or even only had two years left, you'd probably be fine with it. I think this is the case with Barnes. As happy as I think we all are with him, you wouldn't even want to be paying him $19MM/yr on a long-term deal, but because he is expiring it's fine. If we're going to resign him (and I hope we do) I'm guessing it will be MLE or slightly below. Same deal with Olynyk... $13.5MM is way more than he's worth, but he's expiring.

As much as a Dev hater I've historically been, I think he's a fine player at this point (because his role has been adjusted to one more appropriate to his level)... it's all about the contract. We're going to need that $27MM to be two roster spots, not one.

The problem of course is that no one else is going to want to pay Devin in his current role that salary either. We really need a team who feels he can be more if given the opportunity and is willing to "free him" from being a 4th or 5th option and can be a 2nd option (at which point his contract will be a bargain). I'm not sure that team is out there... which means we're going to have to take a lesser return for him. I don't think he's hugely negative value at this point (and in fact, I think his value is higher than it was last year), so that's good.

 

[LeBowen]

I'd just add that another issue with him starting is that we're losing some of our size advantage.
Teams match up their defensively bad point guards with Devin and don't suffer much consequences for the most part.

If Champ was starting in his place it would be a more difficult matchup for those guards just because he can get his shot off easier due to height difference.
But most importantly, if we had a legit SF making similar money (Murphy, Bridges, Wiggins, Hunter, McDaniels, Brooks, you get the point) then those guards wouldn't be able to match with our SF and would have to either chase Fox around or get abused by Castle.

 

[Exstatic]

I'd just add that another issue with him starting is that we're losing some of our size advantage.
Teams match up their defensively bad point guards with Devin and don't suffer much consequences for the most part.

If Champ was starting in his place it would be a more difficult matchup for those guards just because he can get his shot off easier due to height difference.
But most importantly, if we had a legit SF making similar money (Murphy, Bridges, Wiggins, Hunter, McDaniels, Brooks, you get the point) then those guards wouldn't be able to match with our SF and would have to either chase Fox around or get abused by Castle.

You can often get the matchup you want without making a trade. That little shit from Memphis who torched us in the first half got put into repeated guard/guard pick and rolls to match up with Fox, who fucking destroyed him so badly, they had to sit him down.

If the Spurs think there is an imbalanced matchup that needs exploiting they will work it, and if they want to put a PG on Devin, that makes his 3 point looks cleaner.

 

[LeBowen]

You can often get the matchup you want without making a trade. That little shit from Memphis who torched us in the first half got put into repeated guard/guard pick and rolls to match up with Fox, who fucking destroyed him so badly, they had to sit him down.

If the Spurs think there is an imbalanced matchup that needs exploiting they will work it, and if they want to put a PG on Devin, that makes his 3 point looks cleaner.

Obviously, but having a legit SF would just pile on their misery.

Or even Harper if his shot proves to be legit. Good luck hiding any negative defender against a Fox/Harper/Castle/Barnes lineup.

 

[twodeep]

Those were my lineup stats.

But I'm more of an eye test guy.

His shit is together until the 27 million a year variable comes into play.
If he was on like 15, noone would complain.

facts

 

[Exstatic]

facts

Eye test =/= facts. It’s an emotional knee jerk reaction, nothing more.

 

[OK Computer]

Eye test =/= facts. It’s an emotional knee jerk reaction, nothing more.

What’s the point in watching basketball when you can just read numbers, amirite?!

 

[dastexan]

What I know:

Vassell as the 4th option.... not bad but drastically overpaid.

Vassell as the 2nd option.... GOD FUCKING AWFUL

 

[bozhemoi]

Vassell kept us in the Blazers game until De'Aaron Fox finally decided to show up.

 

[BatManu20]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993892136664879458

 

[Mugen]

Keep upping that trade value, Dev.

 

[spursparker9]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1993892136664879458

Wow...i would expect Bowen to be higher...