Trade Spurs Trade Ideas

OK Computer said:
Didn’t Deni have years of disappointment equal to or worse than the rough patch Castle is going through now?
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Yep, year 4-5 Castle will be something to behold. Jimmy Butler made an increase in his numbers from year 1 to a whopping 8.6 ppg in year 2. Castle is fine, just an inflection point.
 
If the Spurs trade for one of Bey or Jones from the Pels I'd like to get Kevon Looney included as well. He could solve our third string C issues and would be a highly tradable expiring contract (8m) for next years deadline. He'd be a useful throw in.
 
Re: Hunter, yeah seems like a malcontent and doesn't try on D/terrible Oreb-ers, terrible which is often effort.
But I think Oly + Sochan works, very low cost, and gives us a potential piece or worst case a very nice expiring next yr.
Cle didn't give up much for him, can't ask for much, and IIRC they have the worst cap situation in the league. This saves them $3M now, $25M next yr, and non-zero (but maybe close to 0) upside on the dump with a Sochan try out.
*I'm wrong, Cle gave up 3 2nds and 2 swaps for Hunter. Damn. Shouldn't change their math if he's demanding a trade though, sunk cost and their cap is f-ed.
 
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ace3g said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/2011107531536335003
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Cleveland gave up a swap that is costing them 11 spots in this draft for a guy who doesn’t want to be there.

DH is a classic top 4 bust. He’ll never be a star, but he can’t accept his role in this league. Being on a second apron team sucks for him, because it becomes very difficult to pull off any trades.
 
mo7888 said:
I don't think Deni is valued more than castle right now. Castle is coming off ROY and, right or not, his upside potential makes him a more valuable asset, even if Deni is the better player today. Deni is very good, but he's a known quantity.
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This is interesting. Deni is the best contract in the NBA, very much looks like a top 25 player entering his prime, how much of that is role and how good does he looks as a #2/#3?
Castle certainly has more potential as a 2-way guy, Deni didn't learn how to shoot until yr 4, and Castle has SPECIAL FTr potential, the thing that turned Butler into a HOFer. Castle was 27th last yr, 16th this yr, but Deni's at 5th this yr and was 8th last yr. Deni's overall O game may be (likely is?) better than Stephs ever will be, but that D potential and willingness/effort are special.

I really don't want to trade Steph, but if we trade him I want in to be for a Deni level/age player. I think their value is pretty damn close, Deni is probably less risky but maybe less upside. Very interesting.
 
Shit, our swap predates ATL/Cle's, google AI makes it sounds like if Cle finishes worse than ATL, we get Cle's pick. Cle's only 2 up in loss column on ATL and super disfunctional and can't really add to improve bc cap situation.

This "swap on swap" situation involves the Jazz already having a swap right with Cleveland from the Donovan Mitchell trade, creating a complex chain where Atlanta could potentially swap picks with Cleveland in 2026 and 2028, and the Spurs could then swap with Atlanta, according to.

Utah finishes below Cle. Cle finishes below Atl, Atl finishes below SA. ATL swaps for Cle pick, do Spurs get that Cle pick or the ATL pick? I'd think we're tied to the ATL pick, but would love another stab at lottery!
 
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OK Computer said:
Didn’t Deni have years of disappointment equal to or worse than the rough patch Castle is going through now?
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Yeah, by most metrics Castle has been a better offensive player than Deni over the first 2 yrs and (probably) a better defender, but Deni's solid+ and has great switchability. But Steph with a way higher usage means comp is not apples/apples.
Deni's like 3" taller, about an 1" on WS, and 4" on reach though.
Deni is a significantly better rebounder and more secure with the ball (but very different role his first couple yrs/not apples comp)
 
Arguendo said:
Shit, our swap predates ATL/Cle's, google AI makes it sounds like if Cle finishes worse than ATL, we get Cle's pick. Cle's only 2 up in loss column on ATL and super disfunctional and can't really add to improve bc cap situation.

This "swap on swap" situation involves the Jazz already having a swap right with Cleveland from the Donovan Mitchell trade, creating a complex chain where Atlanta could potentially swap picks with Cleveland in 2026 and 2028, and the Spurs could then swap with Atlanta, according to.

Utah finishes below Cle. Cle finishes below Atl, Atl finishes below SA. ATL swaps for Cle pick, do Spurs get that Cle pick or the ATL pick? I'd think we're tied to the ATL pick, but would love another stab at lottery!
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We get ATLs pick, and that is it.

Tankathon has it right. We get ATL's pick, ATL gets the best of SA/CLE and CLE gets what's left.
 
Arguendo said:
Yeah, by most metrics Castle has been a better offensive player than Deni over the first 2 yrs and (probably) a better defender, but Deni's solid+ and has great switchability. But Steph with a way higher usage means comp is not apples/apples.
Deni's like 3" taller, about an 1" on WS, and 4" on reach though.
Deni is a significantly better rebounder and more secure with the ball (but very different role his first couple yrs/not apples comp)
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I'm willing to take the leap and say Castle is highly unlikely to ever reach Deni's caliber on offense. Castle being 80% of Deni on offense but a true two-way player would make him more valuable on a team where he is the 3rd option though, IMO. Right now there is a bigger gap than that offensively though.

Deni's jump is outside of the norm, so I don't think it's rational to just look at Deni's jump and say Castle will make a similar one... but if he did, Castle would be a Top 10 player.

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1768340386024.webp
 
scott said:
Deni's jump is outside of the norm, so I don't think it's rational to just look at Deni's jump and say Castle will make a similar one... but if he did, Castle would be a Top 10 player.
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Castle is an uber athlete and such an active defensive player whose coaches love him. I still think someone with his work ethic is going to eventually figure out that jumpshot and get to 33%+ from the three, at which point I'd much much rather have him than Avdija. And you can't ignore the difference in the extensions they'll be signing in 2029. Deni is at 30%. If Castle is at 30% then it's because he qualified for supermax as a top 15 player in the league, in which case he's a bargain. Otherwise he's at 25% of he cap.
 
Kick-Stand said:
Castle is an uber athlete and such an active defensive player whose coaches love him. I still think someone with his work ethic is going to eventually figure out that jumpshot and get to 33%+ from the three, at which point I'd much much rather have him than Avdija. And you can't ignore the difference in the extensions they'll be signing in 2029. Deni is at 30%. If Castle is at 30% then it's because he qualified for supermax as a top 15 player in the league, in which case he's a bargain. Otherwise he's at 25% of he cap.
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The 5% difference in maxes is fairly irrelevant to me at that point, to be honest. We'll likely need to move off of Devin and Fox by that point either way and that extra 5% isn't going to make a huge difference... but if Castle is as good on offense as Deni by then... he will absolutely be a Top 15 player in the league. He'd at +3.8 O-EPM (96th percentile) and +1.6 D-EPM (93rd percentile). The +5.4 EPM overall would be 7th in the NBA this season (98th percentile), the only players ahead of him would be Jokic, SGA, Giannis, Wemby, Curry and Kawhi. I hope it happens, that would be fucking amazing.

SGA and Derrick White are the only guards in the league who rank 90+ percentile in both O-EPM and D-EPM.
 
If Castle becomes closes to Deni as an offensive player then he's worth a max contract. If he doesn't I'd be hesitant. I do think the deeper argument isn't about how talented or valuable Castle is (that's a secondary discussion), the argument that's relevant is how do you, or can you, build a team around Wemby, Castle, and Harper? It's tough to do that with two non-shooters in the back court. I don't want to waste the Wemby era trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. Now, if Castle or Harper become plus threats from deep then it's a moot point, but I'm wary that either will.
 
scott said:
Good post @Ariel.

This is why I brought up Deni as a thought experiment. He's 4 years older than Steph, but is on a similar contract both in duration and salary (Steph's rookie deal actually makes more than Deni in the 4th and final year of their deals which both end in 2027-28). So it's not like acquiring Deni would change the cap calculus anymore than Steph would.

Which team works better on paper?

Team ATeam B
Fox/HarperFox//Harper
CastleVassell
Vassell/KeldonAdvija/Keldon
Barnes/ChampChampagnie/Barnes
Wembanyama/KornetWembanyama/Kornet

I'm positive that Advija is valued pretty significantly above Castle right now... by how much I don't know. 1 pick? 2 picks?

But if POR would do a straight swap... would the community here be up for that? I think I would...

What about at Castle + 1 pick? I think I'm still in. At +2 picks it gets a tougher conversation for me.

But IMO, Team B is a much more complete team. Advija is a 35.5% 3P shooter on high volume (3.1 M/100, 8.7 A/100) with size, rebounding and playmaking. Honestly it kind of pisses me off that Portland got him for as cheap as they did :st-lol:

We'd still need Bryant to develop and to look for legit PF depth in the offseason, but Advija at the 3 makes Champ playable at the 4, IMO.

If we were going to move Castle, this is the kind of move I would do it for.
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One thing I have against Avdija is that he is heavily Ft reliant and generally those players tend to be less effective in the playoffs. I know everyone is thinking shai but his fit last year wasn’t that ridiculous, plus he is clearly a superstar who gets calls accordingly. I’m not sure avdija would have the same pull.

Edit: just realized I didn't answer the question. I would be hesitant to do the trade straight up. Castle is the better defender ,Avdija the offensive player, but at this point, even with Avdija in place of Castle, I don't see the Spurs as a true title contender. I think that day will come in 3 or 4 years, at which point I am guessing/betting/hoping Castle would have improved dramatically into a strong offensive player (85th %ile type, which would put him around the Andrew Wiggins/Max Strus area, which is highly achievable), he would be an incredibly valuable player just when the Spurs are peaking.

Also, someone mentioned Butler who is also FT dependent (more so than Avdija) but what makes playoff Jimmy is his ability to create mid range shots. Avdija shoots mostly threes and while he is shooting insane numbers from 10 to 3pt line this year, the volumes are low and the 10-16 shooting seems to be an aberration.

Finally, Castle is also obviously very FT dependent, and before he got hurt vs. the Kings, he was shooting close to 7 FTA, it has since dropped to closer to 5.7 or so, and I'd argue not coincidentally, he has struggled as well. Castle has to work on different aspects of his game where he can mix in more mid-range jumpers to his moves to open up his drives, even when the 3s aren't falling.
 
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TM3 has been playing out of his mind in January. 5 games 31.2 PPG on 55/43/90% shooting. (43% on 12.6 3pt attempts is crazy)
asking price will skyrocket till deadline.
 
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Vienna said:
TM3 has been playing out of his mind in January. 5 games 31.2 PPG on 55/43/90% shooting. (43% on 12.6 3pt attempts is crazy)
asking price will skyrocket till deadline.
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Yea TMIII definitely getting that Desmond Bane type package. My gut feel is 2 unprotected FRPs + 1 unprotected swap + neutral salary matching contracts is the market value imo.

For comparison I think Lauri’s MV is slightly higher even with his larger contract I’d say it’s around 3 unprotected FRPs + 1 swap or 2 picks + 2 swaps.

MPJ is 1 unprotected pick or maybe 1 pick and 1 swap but his injury history might make him gettable for 1 pick.
 
STAT88 said:
Yea TMIII definitely getting that Desmond Bane type package. My gut feel is 2 unprotected FRPs + 1 unprotected swap + neutral salary matching contracts is the market value imo.

For comparison I think Lauri’s MV is slightly higher even with his larger contract I’d say it’s around 3 unprotected FRPs + 1 swap or 2 picks + 2 swaps.

MPJ is 1 unprotected pick or maybe 1 pick and 1 swap but his injury history might make him gettable for 1 pick.
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if it was Vassell and 2 FRP, would Spurs consider it?
 
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