Analysis Spurs draft assets, cap situation and future projections
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SpursBills
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1. Secondary rim protection / rebounding
2. Switchability on the perimeter
3. Shooting
4. Big wing iso defense
If you had 10 points to assign to the above 4 for your ideal PF, what would that distribution look like? Trying not to look at physical characteristics so much as skills / team needs
2. Switchability on the perimeter
3. Shooting
4. Big wing iso defense
If you had 10 points to assign to the above 4 for your ideal PF, what would that distribution look like? Trying not to look at physical characteristics so much as skills / team needs
ambchang
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Everyone not on the spurs.
LeBowen
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Obviously we don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but we're looking really good for the next few seasons.
As in if everyone keeps playing this way the only things that are missing are a reliable third string C and a big forward that's needed for some matchups. Not necessarily a starter. Basically a Sochan that can play basketball.
Wrote about it in Champ's thread, but we should decline that option and offer him an extension to spread the money easier. Front load it because we won't have cap issues over the next few years.
Right now Barnes and Champ are at $22M combined, hopefully we can keep them both at that same combined price.
Before the season I though something like 30/3 (or 33/4 if we manage to fron load it) would be fair for Champ, but right now even 50/4 would look like a great deal.
Make it 14/13/12/11 , would be fair value.
Obviously Barnes would get a cheaper contract, I think it's really important to keep such a great veteran leader with these young guys.
I'd offer him 21/3 or similar. Make it 8/7/6.
Everyone else that's ont under contract for the next season can go.
We free up three veteran minimum slots and $20M with Sochan and Olynyk going.
If we can't upgrade them into a legit PF before the deadline, just let them walk.
Give DJG the same contract Champ is on right now.
Cap will rise by $12M next season, more than enough for the new rookie(s). Hopefully we can get a rim protector that can take over for Kornet in a couple of years.
Hachimura, Eason, Dean Wade, Wiggins, Fontecchio, Oubre look like solid free agency forward targets.
And obviously Bryant should learn some basketball fundamentals by this time next year and start taking more forward minutes, with Barnes getting a reduced role.
In 2027 Keldon takes a cheap deal because he doesn't want to leave.
As long as we stay healthy, we're in for a great time as Spurs fans. The core is pretty much set and we just need to hope all these young players develop on their optimal trajectories.
Bruno
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^ nice post.
For Chamagnie, declining the 26-27 $3M team option to sign him to a longer contract is the best way for Spurs to keep him while managing their future luxury tax issues. It can be done this season or during next summer.
Giving him a declining deal starting at $10M ($10M/$9.2M/$8.4M/$7.6M) seems to be a decent deal for both sides. It will turn his $3M/1 year contract into a $35.2M/4 years contract. For Champagnie, it will like signing a $33.2M/3 years contract extension which seems fair for a player like him.
For Barnes, it is more important to limit the number of years of his contract than the annual salary. For example, I would like him more with a $24M/2 years contract (12.5/11.5) than with a $27.6M/3 years contract (10/9.2/8.4).
For Chamagnie, declining the 26-27 $3M team option to sign him to a longer contract is the best way for Spurs to keep him while managing their future luxury tax issues. It can be done this season or during next summer.
Giving him a declining deal starting at $10M ($10M/$9.2M/$8.4M/$7.6M) seems to be a decent deal for both sides. It will turn his $3M/1 year contract into a $35.2M/4 years contract. For Champagnie, it will like signing a $33.2M/3 years contract extension which seems fair for a player like him.
For Barnes, it is more important to limit the number of years of his contract than the annual salary. For example, I would like him more with a $24M/2 years contract (12.5/11.5) than with a $27.6M/3 years contract (10/9.2/8.4).
A couple of 2nds?
spurraider21
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i think his value is salary filler
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Update based on where things stand today and some scenario analysis.
First, this is the cap sheet as it stands right now. No extensions are assumed, everything you see here is real and on the books. As is stands, we have 10 players under control next season if you include Sochan who will be an RFA.
If the Spurs declined to issue Sochan an RFA tender, we'd enter the off-season with $13.2MM of cap space and $56.9MM of room under the 1st apron. With that said, it looks like we might have a lottery pick coming our way that we'd have to acount for as well.
I do not think we used our BAE last off-season, so I think that means we have it available for us going into this year? Perhaps one of our resident cap experts like @Bruno or @Chinook can confirm.
Here is a scenario I wanted to look at surrounding Champ. For this, I am going to assume we do tender Jeremy and he is off the books. Of course, if we trade him (or Kelly, or anyone else) for a longer deal, that changes a lot.
In this scenario I'm declining Champ's team option and extending him on a 2+1 worth $54.5MM that is modeled after Santi Aldama's extension with MEM. It's arguable that maybe this is a little high... but let's go with it for now.
I'm also going to assume that Barnes extends for a team friendly 2/$16 to be our Bench Unc. Also extension eligible is Keldon, who I'm going to give the same 2+1 we gave Champ in this scenario.
I'm also assuming max rookie extensions for Wemby (30%), Castle (25%) and Harper (25%) even though I'm not sure Castle or Harper earn those deals. There is also the potential that Wemby does not qualify for a 30% max if he doesn't play 65 games next year... which is not outside of the realm of possibilities.
As you can see... we have some problems (note, I updated the Apron numbers in this one - they are not correct, but also not relevant in the example above). We go into the Tax in 2027-28, which I'm not sure we want to do - especially if we are going to be in the tax the subsequent years, we probably want to delay that first dip into the tax as much as possible (or completely).
I also cannot see us going over the 2nd apron in any circumstance.
So something has got to give... do Champ or Keldon take less money? Do we move Devin with 2 years left? Do we move Fox only 1 year into his extension?
First, this is the cap sheet as it stands right now. No extensions are assumed, everything you see here is real and on the books. As is stands, we have 10 players under control next season if you include Sochan who will be an RFA.
If the Spurs declined to issue Sochan an RFA tender, we'd enter the off-season with $13.2MM of cap space and $56.9MM of room under the 1st apron. With that said, it looks like we might have a lottery pick coming our way that we'd have to acount for as well.
I do not think we used our BAE last off-season, so I think that means we have it available for us going into this year? Perhaps one of our resident cap experts like @Bruno or @Chinook can confirm.
Here is a scenario I wanted to look at surrounding Champ. For this, I am going to assume we do tender Jeremy and he is off the books. Of course, if we trade him (or Kelly, or anyone else) for a longer deal, that changes a lot.
In this scenario I'm declining Champ's team option and extending him on a 2+1 worth $54.5MM that is modeled after Santi Aldama's extension with MEM. It's arguable that maybe this is a little high... but let's go with it for now.
I'm also going to assume that Barnes extends for a team friendly 2/$16 to be our Bench Unc. Also extension eligible is Keldon, who I'm going to give the same 2+1 we gave Champ in this scenario.
I'm also assuming max rookie extensions for Wemby (30%), Castle (25%) and Harper (25%) even though I'm not sure Castle or Harper earn those deals. There is also the potential that Wemby does not qualify for a 30% max if he doesn't play 65 games next year... which is not outside of the realm of possibilities.
As you can see... we have some problems (note, I updated the Apron numbers in this one - they are not correct, but also not relevant in the example above). We go into the Tax in 2027-28, which I'm not sure we want to do - especially if we are going to be in the tax the subsequent years, we probably want to delay that first dip into the tax as much as possible (or completely).
I also cannot see us going over the 2nd apron in any circumstance.
So something has got to give... do Champ or Keldon take less money? Do we move Devin with 2 years left? Do we move Fox only 1 year into his extension?
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Seventyniner
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Good stuff @scott
Would be more accurate if you add in cap holds or assume minimum salary players to fill the roster, and rough assumptions for future first round draft pick salaries, maybe something like #12 for ATL26, #17 ATL27, #26 SA28. That should put the Spurs over the 1st apron in 27-28 given your other numbers.
It will be very hard for the Spurs to duck the tax in 27-28 while keeping all of Keldon, Vassell, Champ on those deals. As bad as the Spurs offense has been without Vassell, his salary is still the sticking point for the tax although he doesn't truly need to be moved until summer 2027.
Would be more accurate if you add in cap holds or assume minimum salary players to fill the roster, and rough assumptions for future first round draft pick salaries, maybe something like #12 for ATL26, #17 ATL27, #26 SA28. That should put the Spurs over the 1st apron in 27-28 given your other numbers.
It will be very hard for the Spurs to duck the tax in 27-28 while keeping all of Keldon, Vassell, Champ on those deals. As bad as the Spurs offense has been without Vassell, his salary is still the sticking point for the tax although he doesn't truly need to be moved until summer 2027.
Can't believe I'm saying this cause I am a Jabari truther...but no Devin is to important to how this current spurs offense runs. If we traded Devin for anything other than a star player we would need to get another Devin.
Robz4000
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Vassell's contract is much more useful in trades by the Summer of 2027 assuming injuries don't derail his career tbh. Right now I think he's worked his contract to a neutral/slightly positive asset but the fact he keeps getting these long-term injuries is starting to tank his value. As of now he has more value to the Spurs on the court than as a trade chip, but its a fluid situation imo.
I think Barnes is the odd man out in this scenario and hope Bryant improves enough to replace him. Champ and Keldon will also have to take slightly less to squeeze in the potential lottery pick this year.
Spurs still look to be in an okay place to keep their core 7-8 players together for the next 2 seasons. But they'll have to start making a decision on the Castle/Harper/Fox trio at the end of next season when Castle is eligible for an extension. Won't make sense to give Castle a max and keep Fox.
SpursBills
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A lot of this depends on how Castle and Harper develop and it’s a problem that may take care of itself honestly. If they continue to be poor shooters, then yes Vassell is more critical, but honestly they shouldn’t be offered rookie maxes. If they continue to develop well and their shooting comes around, then go ahead and max them, but Vassell/Fox become more expendable. For Castle especially, I’d be very interested to see what kind of extension Amen Thompson gets this summer - Houston’s reasonably savvy and locked Sengun down for about 21% of the cap and that was before everyone was feeling the effects of the second apron. I am not sure that Amen gets the max.
LeBowen
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If everything goes according to plan, our rotation is already more or less set.
But it rarely goes according to plan with everyone developing into the best case scenario of themselves or close to it.
Scott's prediction is pretty realistic, the only thing I'd add is that hopefully DJG develops and gets a 10/3 deal Champ is currently on.
That would be 10 rotation ready players with one incoming FRP every year.
A lot of it is going to depend on how willing the ownership is to pay some luxury tax.
And hopefully we can get Champ's extension done at around $15M a year.
He's going to be 25 this summer and has made nothing by NBA standards, he'll surely want to get the bag early because role players are always one bad injury away from being left empty handed. We've seen it with better players than Champ.
Barnes as a placeholder because if he doesn't stay, we'll surely get someone on a similar contract...unless CB exceeds all expectations by the end of the season and/or we draft a rookie PF ready to contribute right away, which is unlikely.
We should be good until 2028 and then one of the max guys has to go. Most likely Fox.
But it rarely goes according to plan with everyone developing into the best case scenario of themselves or close to it.
Scott's prediction is pretty realistic, the only thing I'd add is that hopefully DJG develops and gets a 10/3 deal Champ is currently on.
That would be 10 rotation ready players with one incoming FRP every year.
A lot of it is going to depend on how willing the ownership is to pay some luxury tax.
And hopefully we can get Champ's extension done at around $15M a year.
He's going to be 25 this summer and has made nothing by NBA standards, he'll surely want to get the bag early because role players are always one bad injury away from being left empty handed. We've seen it with better players than Champ.
Barnes as a placeholder because if he doesn't stay, we'll surely get someone on a similar contract...unless CB exceeds all expectations by the end of the season and/or we draft a rookie PF ready to contribute right away, which is unlikely.
We should be good until 2028 and then one of the max guys has to go. Most likely Fox.
So long as everyone is willing to play nice, is behooves the Spurs to slow play a Fox decision as long as possible.
I'm a Castle skeptic, but because he has utilities Fox and Harper don't (namely superior size, good POA defender and elite FTr rate), he's likely the safest of the three guards long term no matter how his shot develops.
That means it's more incumbent on Harper to become at least a Fox level shooter and unlike the Kings did with him, it doesn't makes sense for the Spurs to wait a half decade to see signs of it with the former.
Absent that, a Castle-Harper back court won't cut it offensively, in which case they'd be fools to trade Fox for pennies on the dollar.
I'm a Castle skeptic, but because he has utilities Fox and Harper don't (namely superior size, good POA defender and elite FTr rate), he's likely the safest of the three guards long term no matter how his shot develops.
That means it's more incumbent on Harper to become at least a Fox level shooter and unlike the Kings did with him, it doesn't makes sense for the Spurs to wait a half decade to see signs of it with the former.
Absent that, a Castle-Harper back court won't cut it offensively, in which case they'd be fools to trade Fox for pennies on the dollar.
