Game Thread Playoffs Round 2, Game 1: Spurs vs Timberwolves (0-0) (Mon 05/04/2026) [8:30 CDT]

[timtonymanu]

 

[SpursFan86]

No, it's just the recency bias and not understanding matchups.
While beating the Nuggets is impressive regardless, the current Nuggets are terribly coached and were missing their only two positive defenders.
It was a layup line all series long.
In the regular season Timberwolves beat us with their 3pt shooting, but now that's mostly gone with Divincenzo and Ant not playing.
Not to mention that the Spurs improved on monthly basis and those games were fairly early into the season.

I can see the Timberwolves get a game or two if Ant is back, but winning the series would require ridiculous shooting splits.

Pretty much. Minnesota showed a ton of heart, but they were the benefit of 3P variance and this Spurs team is a totally different animal than Denver.

Re: 3P variance - Denver was 1st in the league during the regular season shooting 39.6% from deep. During the 1st round, they shot 31% from 3. That would've been worst in the league by a huge margin (over 2 standard deviations below the Brooklyn Nets at 34%). I saw another tweet that I believe focused strictly on open threes (so removing the argument of "Well Minnesota played great defense and that's why Denver struggled to shoot it well!"), and pretty sure it showed that Denver was generating plenty of open looks but just converting at an extraordinarily worse rate than you'd expect.

I really don't think this series has any reason to be close. That's not meant as a slight to Minnesota; if they were fully healthy I absolutely think this would be a tough 6 or 7 game series. But asking them to beat a 62-win Spurs team that sported a >8 net rating and has HCA while they're missing their best player + another key rotation guy (DiVincenzo) + potentially Ayo as well...just a totally different ballgame than the Aaron Gordon-less Nuggets.

 

[poopbox]

Pretty much. Minnesota showed a ton of heart, but they were the benefit of 3P variance and this Spurs team is a totally different animal than Denver.

Re: 3P variance - Denver was 1st in the league during the regular season shooting 39.6% from deep. During the 1st round, they shot 31% from 3. That would've been worst in the league by a huge margin (over 2 standard deviations below the Brooklyn Nets at 34%). I saw another tweet that I believe focused strictly on open threes (so removing the argument of "Well Minnesota played great defense and that's why Denver struggled to shoot it well!"), and pretty sure it showed that Denver was generating plenty of open looks but just converting at an extraordinarily worse rate than you'd expect.

I really don't think this series has any reason to be close. That's not meant as a slight to Minnesota; if they were fully healthy I absolutely think this would be a tough 6 or 7 game series. But asking them to beat a 62-win Spurs team that sported a >8 net rating and has HCA while they're missing their best player + another key rotation guy (DiVincenzo) + potentially Ayo as well...just a totally different ballgame than the Aaron Gordon-less Nuggets.

Jokic probably accounting for a chunk of that low 3 point shooting. He was 7 of 35 from 3

 

[100%Duncan]

A little sick. Already called off from work to watch the game

 

[spursparker9]

No time to fool around. We better close this before Ant is back

 

[brazil]

The x factor is a potential return of Ant.. this will give a huge momentum to the wolves... we have to take care of the business at home and avoid close games. Don't let them feel that they are just Ant even half healthy away to win the serie. Best case scenario Ant come back game 4 and we are already 3/0.

Serie will be tighter than one may think. Spurs in 6.

 

[SpursFan86]

Jokic probably accounting for a chunk of that low 3 point shooting. He was 7 of 35 from 3

Top four guys by 3PA:

Murray: 26.2% from deep on 42 total 3PA (shot 43.5% in regular season)
Jokic: 19.4% ( ) from deep on 36 total 3PA (shot 38% in the regular season, 32% post-ASB...either way, just an abysmal shooting stretch)
Cam Johnson: 31.4% from deep on 35 total 3PA (shot 43% in the regular season)
Tim Hardaway Jr: 34.8% from deep on 23 total 3PA (shot 40.7% in the regular season)

Combining those four into one total, they were 37/136 (27%) compared to their regular season average of 41.5%.

 

[SpurSpike]

I may pirate this game but for those wanting a legal route but don't want to give in to peacock you can sign up 30 day trial of walmart+ for $1 and you get the choice between peacock or paramount included.

 

[Manu20]

The x factor is a potential return of Ant.. this will give a huge momentum to the wolves... we have to take care of the business at home and avoid close games. Don't let them feel that they are just Ant even half healthy away to win the serie. Best case scenario Ant come back game 4 and we are already 3/0.

Serie will be tighter than one may think. Spurs in 6.

I have a feeling if Ant comes back in Minnesota it almost guarantees a win for the T Pups so it is crucial for the Spurs to take care of business at home and split the games back in Minny. Don't play around with a wounded team.

 

[BatManu20]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2051314650055073896

 

[BatManu20]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2051317254755627234

 

[Dbreiden83080]

Is he actually questionable for game 1? That's crazy if they bring him back that early or allow him to play that early. Unless the injury isn't as serious as they let on and he just couldn't play game 6 against the Nuggets, but could have played if there was a game 7, or are they playing games with the Spurs and media?

I don't think Ant plays tonight but if he does play I am NOT so worried about him scoring.. Just go at him hard on the other end because his movement will be limited.. Castle could have a field day..