Analysis Official 2026 Magic Numbers Thread

[Dex]

Well, the All-Star Game is behind us, and with that comes what many consider to be the unofficial start of the NBA season. The holidays are behind us, football is over, and now is the time when casual fans start paying attention and the playoff picture starts to come into focus.

With that, I thought it was time to dust off the old spreadsheet and start watching the Spurs Magic Numbers. Past few seasons, we were sadly chasing Tragic Numbers in hopes of better draft odds, but the tank has been parked back in in the bunker and the Spurs are ready to start making some noise.

Coming into this season, the general consensus was that securing a playoff berth would be considered a success, but this young and spunky squad seems to have bigger plans. Believe it or not, that includes chasing the #1 seed. At the break, the Spurs currently sit second in the West and third overall in the NBA.

So without further ado, I present the Spurs Magic Numbers for 2026:



Notes and Thoughts:

-These numbers do take tiebreakers into account. So far, the Spurs have clinched their tiebreaker with the Mavs, Pelicans, Jazz, Lakers, and most importantly, the Thunder. Spurs have lost their tiebreaker with the Timberwolves.

-I won't be updating this daily (at least, not yet), but will provide periodic updates as things start to shake into place. I’m also starting with only the Western Conference.

-It's only mid-February, and the Spurs are only one win (or Kings loss) away from starting to scratch teams off their hit list.

 

[Correct Crusader]

So this is how many games that teams have to lose before being eliminated from contention? I'm confused

 

[Dex]

So this is how many games that teams have to lose before being eliminated from contention? I'm confused

The magic number represents how many Spurs wins (or opponent losses) that San Antonio needs to finish ahead of that opponent in the standings.

 

[Seventyniner]

For a bit more explanation

As soon as 5 other teams' numbers drop to zero, the Spurs are guaranteed to make the play-in

2 more zeros (7 total) means the Spurs are at worst in the 7/8 portion of the play-in

Another 2 more zeros (9 total) mean the Spurs will be in the playoffs guaranteed (top 6 seed)

Yet 2 more zeros (11 total) mean the Spurs get HCA in round 1 (top 4 seed)

A further 2 zeros (13 total) mean the Spurs would get HCA in round 2 if they win round 1 (top 2 seed)

One last zero (14 total, completing the list) means the Spurs would have the #1 seed in the West

 

[timtonymanu]

A @Dex classic from SpursTalk.

 

[timtonymanu]

Magic number to get 50 wins.

 

[timtonymanu]

Magic number to 50 wins!

 

[Dex]

-As Magic Numbers tend to work, Spurs gained 2 points against Phoenix by beating them last night.

-With losses by Denver, Golden State, and Sacramento, Spurs also made up two points against those teams.

-Speaking of Sacramento... LOL Kangs Fox and Unc send their regards.