People often say that preseason doesn't mean anything, and I don't entirely disagree with the statement. Just to be sure however, and after our very satisfying 5-0 record, I thought I would check what happened to teams of previous years who ended up with a perfect record during the preseason.
I was able to find records back to the 2004-05 season, so we got a 20 years sample size.
During that time, 14 teams had a 5-0 or better record (up to 8-0):
- Only 2/14 eventually missed the playoffs (both of whom had a 8-0 record surprisingly)
- 6/14 got eliminated in the 1st round
- 3/14 got eliminated in the Conference Semifinals
- 2/14 got eliminated in the Conference Finals
- 1/14 won the NBA Title (2022 Warriors)
=> That's an
85.7% chance to make the Playoffs.
Now If I widen the search to teams who had a 3-0 record or better (27 teams):
- 5/27 missed the playoffs
- 10/27 got eliminated in the 1st round
- 5/27 got eliminated in the Conference Semifinals
- 5/27 got eliminated in the Conference Finals
- 2/27 won the NBA Title
=> Still an
81.5% chance to make the Playoffs.
By the way, the last time the Spurs had a perfect record in the preseason (3-0 in 2005) we won the NBA Title!
To conclude, that's not a huge enough sample to be very reliable (doesn't take into account season injuries & stuff) but it still doesn't seem to be completely irrelevant. Here's the full breakdown below:
SEASON | TEAM | PRESEASON | SEASON RECORD | PLAYOFFS FATE |
2019-20 | Pelicans | 8-0 | 30-42 (W13) | Missed Playoffs |
2013-14 | Bulls | 8-0 | 48-34 (E3) | Eastern 1st Round |
2010-11 | Jazz | 8-0 | 39-43 (W11) | Missed Playoffs |
2010-11 | Grizzlies | 8-0 | 46-36 (W7) | Western Semifinals |
2009-10 | Magic | 8-0 | 59-23 (E2) | Eastern Finals |
2010-11 | Magic | 7-0 | 52-30 (E4) | Eastern 1st Round |
2008-09 | Hornets | 7-0 | 49-33 (W7) | Western 1st Round |
2024-25 | Warriors | 6-0 | 48-34 (W7) | Western Semifinals |
2023-24 | Timberwolves | 5-0 | 56-26 (W3) | Western Finals |
2021-22 | Warriors | 5-0 | 53-29 (W3) | NBA Champions |
2018-19 | Jazz | 5-0 | 50-32 (W5) | Western 1st Round |
2018-19 | Clippers | 5-0 | 48-34 (W8) | Western 1st Round |
2017-18 | Jazz | 5-0 | 48-34 (W5) | Western Semifinals |
2004-05 | Nuggets | 5-0 | 49-33 (W7) | Western 1st Round |
2023-24 | Raptors | 4-0 | 25-57 (E12) | Missed Playoffs |
2022-23 | 76ers | 4-0 | 54-28 (E3) | Eastern Semifinals |
2022-23 | Kings | 4-0 | 48-34 (W3) | Western 1st Round |
2021-22 | Bulls | 4-0 | 46-36 (E6) | Eastern 1st Round |
2021-22 | Mavericks | 4-0 | 52-30 (W4) | Western Finals |
2021-22 | Knicks | 4-0 | 37-45 (E11) | Missed Playoffs |
2021-22 | Kings | 4-0 | 30-52 (W12) | Missed Playoffs |
2020-21 | Lakers | 4-0 | 42-30 (W7) | Western 1st Round |
2017-18 | Celtics | 4-0 | 55-27 (E2) | Eastern Finals |
2020-21 | Jazz | 3-0 | 52-20 (W1) | Western Semifinals |
2020-21 | Grizzlies | 3-0 | 38-34 (W9) | Western 1st Round |
2004-05 | Suns | 3-0 | 32-20 (W1) | Western Finals |
2004-05 | Spurs | 3-0 | 59-23 (W2) | NBA Champions |