Analysis The Race for Home-Court Advantage - 25/26 Playoffs Seed Tracker
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KobesAchilles
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Sad part is that nobody is going to remember this game. It’s going to be a trivia question: Wilt Chamberlain has the NBA record for 100 points in a game. Who has the second most? And nobody will fucking say Bam Adebayo lol. Good for him I guess though.
Millennial_Messiah
Why so obtuse?
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everyone will still say Kobe with 81 tbh
timtonymanu
We back!!
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Just need the Lakers to beat Minny today.
spursistan
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Really only inexperience that's preventing me from making a bold call for this Spurs team. The metrics, eye test and everything intangibles-related point to a serious title contender. Still, I think making the WCF and losing to OKC in 6 or 7 as medium outcome is the sensible prediction here.
Sugus
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I mean....... They just are. They're serious title contenders in every sense of the word.
Inexperience may well be their Achilles heel in the playoffs, but that doesn't take away their contender status, it just means they couldn't overcome that factor. Only 1 team a year is Champion but there's always obviously 2-3+ contending teams, they all have flaws, some just make it work better
100%Duncan
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Non-issue tbh, unserious team until they get off Bron and fully build a team behind Luka
Robz4000
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Matters because it could put them in the play-in and give the Spurs a relatively easy first round matchup tbh.
100%Duncan
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Nothing I’d want more than for Wemby to beat Lebron in the offs as a passing of the torch moment.
Aside from us ringing ofc.
Robz4000
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Got the first part, let's get the second part Thursday tbh.
ambchang
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Probably the right place to put my thoughts on this, as I don't think it warrants a new thread, but it's around the weaknesses of the Spurs, particularly relating to a deep playoff run:
1) Inexperience - pretty self-explanatory. Even our vets don't have long playoff runs.
- Kornet played in 5 playoffs, 86 games total, averaging 8.6mpg. Only last year was an actual deep run with him playing meaningful minutes and he played 11 games at 16.4mpg. He won a ring with the Celtics two years ago too, so he has experienced it.
- Fox, one playoff series, a 7 game series at that, and he was VERY good vs. the Warriors. 27.4ppg, 7.7apg, 5.4rpg, 2.1spg. Not the most efficient on 42.4/33.3/75.6 shooting splits, but the entire Warriors defence was on him and he didn't shy away.
- Barnes, 5 playoffs, including winning it all with the warriors in 15. He played quite a bit too, 71 games total, 63 starts, 31.5mpg. The numbers aren't that great, but again, been there, which counts.
- Lunchlady - 5 playoffs, 48 games, 17.4mpg. He played quite well in the playoffs in 17, 18 and 20, but that was a long time ago.
- Bismack - 4 playoffs, and the only meaningful run was with teh Raptors in 16.
- Plumlee - 7 playoffs, a good run iwth Portland in 16, then I would say the only other meaningful ones were 18 with Denver and 23 with the Clippers.
Outside of Fox, none of these players are expected to be a major core of the team, Kornet and Barnes would likely get meaningful minutes though.
2) Tied to the point above, it is, who is the real leader of this team? On talent alone, it's clearly Wemby, but on experience, Fox would be the man. That said, he's been with the team for not that long, and seems to defer to Wemby at times. Barnes and Kornet are way too quiet, Biyombo doesn't even play much. Is Mitch doing that role? KJ is the heart, but is he the leader? I am not sure. Ultimately, if things get tough, who will rally the troops? I am guessing KJ and Fox will fill that role, but we will see.
3) I still have concerns about rebounding off Wemby forced misses. Yes, we are the best defensive rebounding team in the league, but I can see teams with multiple big bodied players (Knicks, Wolves, Cavs) giving us some trouble by rebounding Wemby-forced misses.
4) Teams who can pull Wemby out of the paint would be an issue for sure. Our entire defence revolves around Wemby, it's a hard nut to crack for the opposition, but if there is a team that can play five out (Nuggets, OKC, Celtics), Wemby could be forced outside of the paint and our soft underbelly would be exposed. Wemby can absolutely fly around and still cause havoc, but that is a lot of energy for him on defence and it could spell trouble for us.
5) Outside shooting. Despite us being on a decent run lately, I wonder what would happen when we go cold. The good news is that we have a deep team, which is why we are no longer spiteful against Vassell and KJ. They can have bad games (and they do) but the impact is minimal. But when they have good games, we are unbeatable. Vassell is inconsistent and I would love to see how he performs in a deep playoff runs, Barnes would be useful when he's hot, KJ shoots lower volumes and wide opened, Fox and Castle can catch fire once in a while but their strengths lie else where, Harper is pretty bad at this. Wemby, is actually the only guy, other than Vassell, I have some confidence in taking a 3 during crunch time.
6) Getting to the line. Calls in the playoffs are at a premium, it gives you easy points, it gives the players a breather, and most importantly, it puts the other team's players in foul trouble and that is that much more important when rotations are tight during playoff time. Good thing is we don't foul a lot, bad thing is we don't get a lot of fouls either (not bad, #10 in the league). We are #12 in the league in FTA and #10 in FTM (we are #17 in FT%), $11 in FTr and #9 in FT/FGA. We are not bad here, but see if we can adjust our expectations in getting to the line during the playoffs.
Feel free to add to this list.
1) Inexperience - pretty self-explanatory. Even our vets don't have long playoff runs.
- Kornet played in 5 playoffs, 86 games total, averaging 8.6mpg. Only last year was an actual deep run with him playing meaningful minutes and he played 11 games at 16.4mpg. He won a ring with the Celtics two years ago too, so he has experienced it.
- Fox, one playoff series, a 7 game series at that, and he was VERY good vs. the Warriors. 27.4ppg, 7.7apg, 5.4rpg, 2.1spg. Not the most efficient on 42.4/33.3/75.6 shooting splits, but the entire Warriors defence was on him and he didn't shy away.
- Barnes, 5 playoffs, including winning it all with the warriors in 15. He played quite a bit too, 71 games total, 63 starts, 31.5mpg. The numbers aren't that great, but again, been there, which counts.
- Lunchlady - 5 playoffs, 48 games, 17.4mpg. He played quite well in the playoffs in 17, 18 and 20, but that was a long time ago.
- Bismack - 4 playoffs, and the only meaningful run was with teh Raptors in 16.
- Plumlee - 7 playoffs, a good run iwth Portland in 16, then I would say the only other meaningful ones were 18 with Denver and 23 with the Clippers.
Outside of Fox, none of these players are expected to be a major core of the team, Kornet and Barnes would likely get meaningful minutes though.
2) Tied to the point above, it is, who is the real leader of this team? On talent alone, it's clearly Wemby, but on experience, Fox would be the man. That said, he's been with the team for not that long, and seems to defer to Wemby at times. Barnes and Kornet are way too quiet, Biyombo doesn't even play much. Is Mitch doing that role? KJ is the heart, but is he the leader? I am not sure. Ultimately, if things get tough, who will rally the troops? I am guessing KJ and Fox will fill that role, but we will see.
3) I still have concerns about rebounding off Wemby forced misses. Yes, we are the best defensive rebounding team in the league, but I can see teams with multiple big bodied players (Knicks, Wolves, Cavs) giving us some trouble by rebounding Wemby-forced misses.
4) Teams who can pull Wemby out of the paint would be an issue for sure. Our entire defence revolves around Wemby, it's a hard nut to crack for the opposition, but if there is a team that can play five out (Nuggets, OKC, Celtics), Wemby could be forced outside of the paint and our soft underbelly would be exposed. Wemby can absolutely fly around and still cause havoc, but that is a lot of energy for him on defence and it could spell trouble for us.
5) Outside shooting. Despite us being on a decent run lately, I wonder what would happen when we go cold. The good news is that we have a deep team, which is why we are no longer spiteful against Vassell and KJ. They can have bad games (and they do) but the impact is minimal. But when they have good games, we are unbeatable. Vassell is inconsistent and I would love to see how he performs in a deep playoff runs, Barnes would be useful when he's hot, KJ shoots lower volumes and wide opened, Fox and Castle can catch fire once in a while but their strengths lie else where, Harper is pretty bad at this. Wemby, is actually the only guy, other than Vassell, I have some confidence in taking a 3 during crunch time.
6) Getting to the line. Calls in the playoffs are at a premium, it gives you easy points, it gives the players a breather, and most importantly, it puts the other team's players in foul trouble and that is that much more important when rotations are tight during playoff time. Good thing is we don't foul a lot, bad thing is we don't get a lot of fouls either (not bad, #10 in the league). We are #12 in the league in FTA and #10 in FTM (we are #17 in FT%), $11 in FTr and #9 in FT/FGA. We are not bad here, but see if we can adjust our expectations in getting to the line during the playoffs.
Feel free to add to this list.
spurraider21
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its already locked up tbh. even if denver beats us all 3 times (and everybody else in the west wins their games), we'd still be 4 games ahead of the nearest team (houston) against whom we hold the tiebreaker, with 14 games to go.
put this way, assume houston goes undefeated the rest of the season and finishes 58-24, we'd have to finish 57-25 to drop down to 3. if denver beats us all 3 times, we would still have the #2 seed if we went 10-4 in all other games
our schedule includes games against the Kings, Sons, Pacers, Grizzlies, Bucks, Bulls, Warriors, Sixers, Blazers, Mavs... #2 is in the bag. its just a matter of OKC hopefully stumbling a bit. they still have a considerably more difficult remaining schedule than we do
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Speaking of strength of schedule, because @spurraider21 likes to point out that I prefer Crafted NBA's SoS analysis...
Through 65 games, the Spurs have had the 4th most difficult schedule. But the game against BOS was a key inflection point as it signifies the point where the next 14 days are no longer more difficult than the average SoS. Our remaining SoS is only the 25th most difficult, and the next 14 days are only the 22nd most difficult, with both being pretty considerably easier than the average NBA schedule. By comparison, the Celtics, Suns, Lakers, Thunder, Hawks, Nuggets and Hornets remaining schedules are all (to varying degrees) more difficult than the average NBA schedule.
Here is a table of our schedule compared to others that we generally tend to think about for seeding or for Hawks swap rights:
Our schedule gets progressively easier from here on out, whereas the Thunder gets progressively more difficult which will make the chase for the 1 seed quite interesting. Those battling for the 3 seed have a moderately tough schedule, especially the Wolves. The Nuggets schedule has a lot of tough teams and the remaining SoS of 13 might underrate how tough it is... they should be more concerned about the 6 seed than the 2 or 3 seed at this point.
On the Hawks Swap front, everyone is focused on their current streak and an easy next 14 days, but then they have a very tough schedule to finish after that whereas the Hornets and Sixers have it relatively easy. Maxey going out for PHI really hurts that situation, but anywhere from 8-10 in the east is in play for ATL.
Through 65 games, the Spurs have had the 4th most difficult schedule. But the game against BOS was a key inflection point as it signifies the point where the next 14 days are no longer more difficult than the average SoS. Our remaining SoS is only the 25th most difficult, and the next 14 days are only the 22nd most difficult, with both being pretty considerably easier than the average NBA schedule. By comparison, the Celtics, Suns, Lakers, Thunder, Hawks, Nuggets and Hornets remaining schedules are all (to varying degrees) more difficult than the average NBA schedule.
Here is a table of our schedule compared to others that we generally tend to think about for seeding or for Hawks swap rights:
| Team | YTD SoS Rank (1 is most difficult, 30 is easiest) | Remaining SoS | Next 14 days SoS |
| Spurs | 4 | 25 | 22 |
| Thunder | 17 | 10 | 12 |
| Nuggets | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| Rockets | 7 | 22 | 14 |
| Wolves | 26 | 3 | 2 |
| Hawks | 18 | 11 | 21 |
| Hornets | 24 | 14 | 29 |
| Sixers | 22 | 20 | 20 |
Our schedule gets progressively easier from here on out, whereas the Thunder gets progressively more difficult which will make the chase for the 1 seed quite interesting. Those battling for the 3 seed have a moderately tough schedule, especially the Wolves. The Nuggets schedule has a lot of tough teams and the remaining SoS of 13 might underrate how tough it is... they should be more concerned about the 6 seed than the 2 or 3 seed at this point.
On the Hawks Swap front, everyone is focused on their current streak and an easy next 14 days, but then they have a very tough schedule to finish after that whereas the Hornets and Sixers have it relatively easy. Maxey going out for PHI really hurts that situation, but anywhere from 8-10 in the east is in play for ATL.
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Could definitely see it being Fox, he's had some cold sound bites as of late, lol
Seventyniner
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Champagnie definitely belongs on this list.
Carter hit a huge one against the Clippers, from the top of the key no less. I don't fully trust him yet due to a small sample in the clutch, and at least this season he's not likely to be on the floor at all in crunch time in the playoffs.
Where can I look up Fox's 3P% in the clutch? It seems like he shoots better than average in those situations but the data would tell the story.
Seventyniner
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My top two guesses would be Fox and Harper in that order. Castle is less likely to say stuff like that out loud.
The whole team was thinking it because they were coached to swarm KD and knew exactly why they were doing it.
ambchang
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I’m thinking fox.
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