Analysis The Race for Home-Court Advantage - 25/26 Playoffs Seed Tracker

Will the Spurs get HCA in the '25-26 Playoffs?

  • Total voters
    55
Robz4000 said:
Gotta adjust for the pace of :st-lol: today's NBA tbh. A 115 PPG is equivalent to 85 PPG from 20 years ago iirc.
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It's why I seldom watch it and prefer to watch youtube highlights and google the scores tbh. A ten point lead doesn't mean jackshit in today's arcade NBA.
 
LeBowen said:
12 more games against tanking teams.
Jazz, Mavs x3, Pelicans, Kings x2, Pacers, Nets, Bulls, Grizzlies, Bucks.
I hope we don't drop any more of those games, hopefully 11-1. Realistically 10-2.

13 more games against mediocre teams.
Magic, Hornets x2, Raptors, Warriors x2, Sixers x2, Clippers x3, Heat, Blazers
Let's say 10-3 in these, 9-4 would be passable.

14 games against legit playoff teams.
Rockets x3, Nuggets x3, Thunder, Lakers, Celtics, Suns x2, Pistons x2, Knicks
For the sake of discussion, let's say that 7-7 in these would be passable, although I'd really hope for 9-5 at least.
We play 9 of these 14 at home.

Realistic scenario would put us at 56 wins, but I'm convinced we can get 60 if Wemby is healthy and goes back to ~32mpg.
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Update:

Went 3-1 against Jazz, Mavs x2, Pelicans.
8 more games against tanking teams.
Mavs, Kings x2, Pacers, Nets, Bulls, Grizzlies, Bucks.
I expect at least 7-1 here, probably 8-0 considering the tankathon is about to kick off.

Went 2-1 against Hornets, Magic, Warriors.
10 more games against mediocre teams.
Hornets, Raptors, Warriors, Sixers x2, Clippers x3, Heat, Blazers
I guess 7-3 would be fine here, hoping for 8-2.

Went 3-1 against Rockets x2, Thunder, Lakers.
10 more games against legit playoff teams.
Rockets, Nuggets x3, Celtics, Suns x2, Pistons x2, Knicks
Just one Nuggets game, one Pistons game and Knicks are on the road.
I'd say we can't drop the second seed if we beat the Nuggets twice, 7-3 since we play most of these at home.

Just 3 b2bs left and I'd say we got lucky since two of those second nights are against the Nets and the Kings.
The third one is a Clippers-Pistons home b2b.

60 wins aren't out of the realm of possibility, realistically we should be aiming for 56-58 wins.
 
LeBowen said:
Update:

Went 3-1 against Jazz, Mavs x2, Pelicans.
8 more games against tanking teams.
Mavs, Kings x2, Pacers, Nets, Bulls, Grizzlies, Bucks.
I expect at least 7-1 here, probably 8-0 considering the tankathon is about to kick off.

Went 2-1 against Hornets, Magic, Warriors.
10 more games against mediocre teams.
Hornets, Raptors, Warriors, Sixers x2, Clippers x3, Heat, Blazers
I guess 7-3 would be fine here, hoping for 8-2.

Went 3-1 against Rockets x2, Thunder, Lakers.
10 more games against legit playoff teams.
Rockets, Nuggets x3, Celtics, Suns x2, Pistons x2, Knicks
Just one Nuggets game, one Pistons game and Knicks are on the road.
I'd say we can't drop the second seed if we beat the Nuggets twice, 7-3 since we play most of these at home.

Just 3 b2bs left and I'd say we got lucky since two of those second nights are against the Nets and the Kings.
The third one is a Clippers-Pistons home b2b.

60 wins aren't out of the realm of possibility, realistically we should be aiming for 56-58 wins.
Click to expand...
Went through the schedule last night and concluded about the same tbh. The last home meeting against the Nuggets is the last game of the season which is interesting; could mean a lot for both teams or nothing. Hopefully the Spurs win one of the next two meetings imo.
 
Robz4000 said:
Went through the schedule last night and concluded about the same tbh. The last home meeting against the Nuggets is the last game of the season which is interesting; could mean a lot for both teams or nothing. Hopefully the Spurs win one of the next two meetings imo.
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I think the biggest advantage is having the final 4 games of the season at home.
No travel from April 4th, with the playoffs starting on 18th.
Two weeks of practice and getting ready.
 
LeBowen said:
Update:

Went 3-1 against Jazz, Mavs x2, Pelicans.
8 more games against tanking teams.
Mavs, Kings x2, Pacers, Nets, Bulls, Grizzlies, Bucks.
I expect at least 7-1 here, probably 8-0 considering the tankathon is about to kick off.

Went 2-1 against Hornets, Magic, Warriors.
10 more games against mediocre teams.
Hornets, Raptors, Warriors, Sixers x2, Clippers x3, Heat, Blazers
I guess 7-3 would be fine here, hoping for 8-2.

Went 3-1 against Rockets x2, Thunder, Lakers.
10 more games against legit playoff teams.
Rockets, Nuggets x3, Celtics, Suns x2, Pistons x2, Knicks
Just one Nuggets game, one Pistons game and Knicks are on the road.
I'd say we can't drop the second seed if we beat the Nuggets twice, 7-3 since we play most of these at home.

Just 3 b2bs left and I'd say we got lucky since two of those second nights are against the Nets and the Kings.
The third one is a Clippers-Pistons home b2b.

60 wins aren't out of the realm of possibility, realistically we should be aiming for 56-58 wins.
Click to expand...
If you guarantee me Wemby playing at least 24 of the remaining 28 games (therefore meeting the 65-game threshold), i can see us giving OKC a serious run for that 1 seed. May not get it, but it will still be in play till the last week of season. Most importantly, Spurs have now put some separation on that 3-6 pack. Someone has to go on a massive tear (something like 24-4) to catch us for second seed . Looking at the schedule, those teams are going take a bunch of games out of each others.

www.tankathon.com

NBA Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon

Shows the remaining strength of schedule for NBA teams based on the winning percentage of the opponents left on their schedule.
www.tankathon.com www.tankathon.com
 
Dat second seed looks good tbh... 4 ahead of Denver and rockets is significant
 
Robz4000 said:
Went through the schedule last night and concluded about the same tbh. The last home meeting against the Nuggets is the last game of the season which is interesting; could mean a lot for both teams or nothing. Hopefully the Spurs win one of the next two meetings imo.
Click to expand...
Could see a scenario where we try hard to beat Denver to push them into 1-4 bracket with OKC while helping Houston for 3rd seed or flat out going for 1 seed irrespective of how the brackets shake out. Wemby is probably playing every game for the rest of season to meet 65-game requirement.
 
LeBowen said:
Damn, nephew dropped 19 and the game winner on the Rockets in the 4th.
Time to pay clutchfans a visit. :st-lol:
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https://twitter.com/x/status/2021792134689423746

tenor.gif
 
J-Dub apparently tweaked his hamstring last night against the Suns. Probably nothing serious but something to monitor.

Would like to think that OKC's not rushing him back to play these last few games if the Spurs weren't only 4 games back for the 1 seed.
 
Millennial_Messiah said:
It sucks going 4-1 against OKC and still having to go play a best of seven WCF with them having HCA.

I guess that's what we get for going 0-4 against them in 2014 and still us getting HCA in the WCF which ultimately propelled us over the top.
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they are 41-9 in non-spurs games, we are 34-15 in non-OKC games, so there is still ground to cover

their schedule projects to be somewhat harder than us the rest of the way, but both of us still have 3 games left against denver, 2 against detroit. they still have 2 against boston and NYK apiece, we play those 1 apiece
 
spursistan said:
Could see a scenario where we try hard to beat Denver to push them into 1-4 bracket with OKC while helping Houston for 3rd seed or flat out going for 1 seed irrespective of how the brackets shake out. Wemby is probably playing every game for the rest of season to meet 65-game requirement.
Click to expand...
Dream bracket:

1-Spurs
8-Blazers

4-Rockets
5-Lakers

3-Nuggets
6-Suns

2-Thunder
7-Wolves
 
Bucks/Thunder game could be quite the pre-ASB gift for us if Milwaukee pulls it off. with Shai still out and now probably J-Dub too... who knows?

bucks need to start stacking wins to displace ATL from the play-in race
 
Rewatched the J-Dub injury against the Suns last night and I'd be surprised if he's back immediately after the AS break. I'm assuming Shai will be but the Thunder have Cavs, Pistons, and Denver during that stretch.

Good opportunity for the Spurs to gain some ground especially if the Bucks pull off the upset tonight tbh.
 
Mugen said:
Nikola Topic making his NBA debut tonight for OKC.

Even though he plays for the Thunder, pretty stoked for him given the pre-draft injury and the cancer diagnosis tbh.
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Damn, that's nuts (sorry, no pun intended but after I realized it I couldn't resist).

Seriously, thought he'd be done for the year... happy for the kid.
 
Nice ovation for Topic, cool to see him out there
 
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