Analysis The Race for Home-Court Advantage - 25/26 Playoffs Seed Tracker

[spurraider21]

One of the most fun things about this season is scoreboard watching for the first time in like ten years.

To be fair we were doing this is recent seasons but for lotto odds

 

[Area 51.247]

To be fair we were doing this is recent seasons but for lotto odds

True. I go weeks now between Tankathon resets! Although, this one would be great!

 

[PhantomDashCam]

Charlotte are eleven games under .500 and yet have an even Points For/Points Against at 116.4.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen that.
Wow. They actually could be a play in team at the least.

For perspective, Lakers are 8 games over .500 and are -.8 PF/PA (116.5/117.3) going up against Toronto right now.

 

[bozhemoi]

Charlotte are eleven games under .500 and yet have an even Points For/Points Against at 116.4.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen that.
Wow. They actually could be a play in team at the least.

For perspective, Lakers are 8 games over .500 and are -.8 PF/PA (116.5/117.3) going up against Toronto right now.

The Lakers either get blown out or their incredible whistle gets them wins. Charlotte just destroyed Utah (?) by like fifty points, which also helps their differential.

Lakers are fake.

 

[wEmBoY]

Taking a look at the schedule for the rest of the season. We only have 5 road games scheduled during the time when the RRT would usually happen. Is that a first?

Oh no more RRT? What was last season spurs din a rodeo road trip?

 

[Seventyniner]

Charlotte are eleven games under .500 and yet have an even Points For/Points Against at 116.4.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen that.
Wow. They actually could be a play in team at the least.

For perspective, Lakers are 8 games over .500 and are -.8 PF/PA (116.5/117.3) going up against Toronto right now.

The 2021-2022 Spurs managed a 34-48 record with a positive point differential, tying the 1976-1977 Suns for the worst record by a team with a positive point differential.

The Hornets this year are even more skewed since the season is only halfway over.

 

[Exstatic]

Taking a look at the schedule for the rest of the season. We only have 5 road games scheduled during the time when the RRT would usually happen. Is that a first?

Two of the games during that period are “ home games” in Austin.

 

[ace3g]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2013458502270791963

 

[spurraider21]

Jimmy butler may have torn his ACL

 

[spurraider21]

^now confirmed by shams. absolutely brutal for GSW

 

[Exstatic]

^now confirmed by shams. absolutely brutal for GSW

They’re dragging out rebuilding to placate Curry. Unfortunately, the guys they bring in are also old. Wonder if MIL would be interested in a recovering Butler as part of a Giannis trade.

 

[Correct Crusader]

They’re dragging out rebuilding to placate Curry. Unfortunately, the guys they bring in are also old. Wonder if MIL would be interested in a recovering Butler as part of a Giannis trade.

"recovering butler" his career is over.

 

[Exstatic]

"recovering butler" his career is over.

You’re like stuck in a 1970 time loop. An ACL tear is not a career ender,and hasn’t been for decades. A 36 year old with 20/5.6/4.9 on shooting splits of 52/37/86 is in no way done. If Milwaukie decides to move Giannis, having an all Star caliber player on the shelf for a year allows them to easily tank for this year, then they get him back in January of next year.

 

[spurraider21]

They’re dragging out rebuilding to placate Curry. Unfortunately, the guys they bring in are also old. Wonder if MIL would be interested in a recovering Butler as part of a Giannis trade.

their options were to trade curry a year ago or (foolishly) try to go for one last run with Curry and Draymond playing at effective levels. they chose the latter, went and got jimmy butler, and predictably wound up a good, punchers-chance type team but not a true contender. and jimmy frankly had been playing great as of late, with the warriors being fairly got, have won something like 11 of their last 15 or something along those lines. but now... they get the worst of both worlds

 

[Mugen]

You don't trade Curry if you're the Dubs and don't request a trade if you're Steph tbh. They got their swan song with the '22 chip.

Some players deserve to be one-team lifers and Curry is one of them. His legacy barely moves a blip if he wins a ring with a team like the Rockets tbh. Just ride it out and enjoy the remaining years together.

 

[spurraider21]

You’re like stuck in a 1970 time loop. An ACL tear is not a career ender,and hasn’t been for decades. A 36 year old with 20/5.6/4.9 on shooting splits of 52/37/86 is in no way done. If Milwaukie decides to move Giannis, having an all Star caliber player on the shelf for a year allows them to easily tank for this year, then they get him back in January of next year.

ACL's are not generally career enders anymore. but butler will be 37 when he comes back, and we've seen with plenty of younger players that the first year coming off an ACL the player is not quite right and they typically come back even stronger the following year.

as good as jimmy has been this year, he's already been far from durable and you would expect ordinary decline for something 36 going on 37. now thats going to be accelerated

nobody is going to want any part of butler. warriors got a healthy-ish 35 year old butler dirt cheap a year ago. he will have drastically less value now. and hes set to earn 57 mil next year

 

[Exstatic]

their options were to trade curry a year ago or (foolishly) try to go for one last run with Curry and Draymond playing at effective levels. they chose the latter, went and got jimmy butler, and predictably wound up a good, punchers-chance type team but not a true contender. and jimmy frankly had been playing great as of late, with the warriors being fairly got, have won something like 11 of their last 15 or something along those lines. but now... they get the worst of both worlds

They were never trading Curry without him wanting to go, and I think he wants to be one of those one franchise guys.

 

[Exstatic]

ACL's are not generally career enders anymore. but butler will be 37 when he comes back, and we've seen with plenty of younger players that the first year coming off an ACL the player is not quite right and they typically come back even stronger the following year.

as good as jimmy has been this year, he's already been far from durable and you would expect ordinary decline for something 36 going on 37. now thats going to be accelerated

nobody is going to want any part of butler. warriors got a healthy-ish 35 year old butler dirt cheap a year ago. he will have drastically less value now. and hes set to earn 57 mil next year

OK, so a $57M ending contract next year for a player who could possibly bounce back. In the Second Apron era, that has value.

 

[spurraider21]

OK, so a $57M ending contract next year for a player who could possibly bounce back. In the Second Apron era, that has value.

what the hell would a rebuilding milwaukee want with a damaged 37 year old who may bounce back? they literally just waived lillard who is younger and could also bounce back

 

[Exstatic]

what the hell would a rebuilding milwaukee want with a damaged 37 year old who may bounce back? they literally just waived lillard who is younger and could also bounce back

You rehab him, play him 20 minutes per game next January, then you flip him. If it doesn’t work outs he rolls off in the summer of 27.

Lillard was a bad fit with Giannis. If you’re talking doing this trade, you’re burning it to the ground like we did in 2022-2023. That’s a different animal, altogether.

 

[LeBowen]

12 more games against tanking teams.
Jazz, Mavs x3, Pelicans, Kings x2, Pacers, Nets, Bulls, Grizzlies, Bucks.
I hope we don't drop any more of those games, hopefully 11-1. Realistically 10-2.

13 more games against mediocre teams.
Magic, Hornets x2, Raptors, Warriors x2, Sixers x2, Clippers x3, Heat, Blazers
Let's say 10-3 in these, 9-4 would be passable.

14 games against legit playoff teams.
Rockets x3, Nuggets x3, Thunder, Lakers, Celtics, Suns x2, Pistons x2, Knicks
For the sake of discussion, let's say that 7-7 in these would be passable, although I'd really hope for 9-5 at least.
We play 9 of these 14 at home.

Realistic scenario would put us at 56 wins, but I'm convinced we can get 60 if Wemby is healthy and goes back to ~32mpg.

 

[spurraider21]

You rehab him, play him 20 minutes per game next January, then you flip him. If it doesn’t work outs he rolls off in the summer of 27.

Lillard was a bad fit with Giannis. If you’re talking doing this trade, you’re burning it to the ground like we did in 2022-2023. That’s a different animal, altogether.

nobody is collecting 37 year old rehab projects to flip them

 

[scott]

12 more games against tanking teams.
Jazz, Mavs x3, Pelicans, Kings x2, Pacers, Nets, Bulls, Grizzlies, Bucks.
I hope we don't drop any more of those games, hopefully 11-1. Realistically 10-2.

13 more games against mediocre teams.
Magic, Hornets x2, Raptors, Warriors x2, Sixers x2, Clippers x3, Heat, Blazers
Let's say 10-3 in these, 9-4 would be passable.

14 games against legit playoff teams.
Rockets x3, Nuggets x3, Thunder, Lakers, Celtics, Suns x2, Pistons x2, Knicks
For the sake of discussion, let's say that 7-7 in these would be passable, although I'd really hope for 9-5 at least.
We play 9 of these 14 at home.

Realistic scenario would put us at 56 wins, but I'm convinced we can get 60 if Wemby is healthy and goes back to ~32mpg.

Sounds like 69 wins is still in play to me.

LFG

 

[ginobilized]

If only Kuminga could step in an fill Jimmy Bucket's shoes. What a clusterfuck the Warriors are.
Wonder if they consider bringing Klay back for a legacy tour?

 

[Strategic]

Suns playing at Philly in tonight’s 1st tipoff. Too bad, and no surprise, George and Embid sitting this one out.