The Championship Window

[LeBowen]

nobody in the league looks that dominant, OKC included tbh

People forget OKC almost lost to Denver with 4.5 players, would've probably lost if Gordon stayed healthy.

Sounds cliche, but we just need to go game by game because in April things will be way different, injuries always determine the playoff picture.
And we'll be difficult to play against just because there will be no pressure on our young guys compared to veteran teams that have to make at least WCF or their season will be seen as a failure.

 

[spurraider21]

nobody in the league looks that dominant, OKC included tbh

OKC has been without J-Dub and Caruso

unlike the Spurs with Fox/Olynyk, et al we know what a full strength OKC team can do

 

[couchman]

Bump!
Right now seems like a good time to revisit this as the Spurs are besting almost everyone’s expectations.

It’s not too difficult to imagine Wemby returning, this team gelling, and the Spurs being a title contender THIS SEASON, especially if the injury situation starts to go in our favor.

I still think we’re one more usable big forward away from a complete roster, but Barnes’ play has mitigated that a bit. I doubt the Spurs make a move to improve the roster during the season and mess with the chemistry.

 

[Em-City]

nobody in the league looks that dominant, OKC included tbh

Not sure if serious.

If nobody looks that dominant, but one team is somehow 24-1 in the superior conference, I think you should reconsider your definition of dominant.


To answer the OP, I think that the games against OKC on the 14th, 24th and 26th will indicate whether it's a yes or a no.

 

[Em-City]

Lol I didn't realise mugen's post was from 6 weeks ago

 

[spursfanfromafar]

I will look at this like this instead of talking of a window. Do the Spurs have a championship core? By that core, I mean players who are ready with the IQ and talent that it takes to thrive in the playoffs where talent levels are more or less the same but what differentiates winners and losers is the ability to adjust and perform under higher pressure (ergo higher IQ , more well oiled lineups).

This team as of now is not yet there. They have to first reach the playoffs to be tested and know what it requires to win those 16 games.

In terms of talent, their top end talent is nearly there in the main core and the supporting cast. But their main core isn't battle tested enough and their supporting cast isn't flawless or fully adequate.

So there are still many steps to be taken to get to that point of contention. The good news - the Spurs are trending in that direction. And way before schedule TBH.

 

[SpursBills]

I'm going to say no, not yet. They'll get there as soon as next year, but the Spurs' core guys still have too many exploitable flaws and not enough experience to make it through a 7 round series against the top teams.

Wemby needs a lot of work still, especially offensively. He needs to understand that holding the ball and trying to dance on the perimeter isn't efficient basketball, he needs to recognize and find the open man more consistently when he gets swarmed, and we need to see how well he integrates with the existing guards on the team. He also needs to get rid of these stretches on offense where he just floats or breaks the offense and just puts up a bad 3.

Castle and Harper need to learn what it's like to have playoff-level defenses swiping at your handle, bumping you constantly, exploiting your lack of a jumper.

I guess at this point, I think these Spurs are in the "can beat any contender on any given night, even in the playoffs" stage of things, as they have the raw talent, but their young core doesn't have that consistency yet to make it happen night in and night out in a 7 game series and that's something that'll take time. I'm very thankful for this OKC mini-series coming up because even if they get their shit pushed in 3 games in a row, it provides that playoff level intensity against a championship-level defense that they need to recognize the flaws they have and can potentially accelerate the timeline even further.

Still remember this interview a while back from SGA - it's a mentality that the young guys can hopefully emulate as well

 

[brazil]

Let us go through a first round before talking about championship window tbh fwiw

 

[couchman]

Great take @SpursBills.
I think the talent is there, but we need the experience, some luck with health, and a few good bounces to go our way.
We’re probably a year or three away from genuinely competing for a title.

 

[ulosturedge]

Too early to gauge. By the end of the season might give us a better indication where this Team stands. Getting to the second round would be a great accomplishment this year. I think our Team has the talent to beat anyone, but at the same time we are capable of losing to anyone.

 

[ginobilized]

Our window might be more open than I thought when this thread was started. Regular season is a nice 82-game warmup for the only thing that really tells us about our window and that's the playoffs. My guess is that we'll roll with what we have this season, with maybe a minor switcheroo at the trade deadline/waiver wire. The real shaping of our team will happen in the summer and will be informed by our playoff performance. We could quite possibly have the 4 or 5 seed or end up in the play-in and get a bad matchup (PHX) and be one and done. In my view, we are playing at the best-case scenario level I imagined during the offseason. Truly remarkable. This coaching staff seems to be succeeding in cleaning u some of our weaknesses while creating great cohesion and winning. The team as a whole, FO/Coaches/Players, seems more aligned and energized than in recent years. At least, that's what I sense. I was hoping we'd be where we are now by next season. So, in that view, the Championship Window is very possibly starting to open.

 

[scott]

I think we are all generally agreement that we need a playoff campaign to truly gauge where we are at relative to true contention (and of course we have a historical obstacle in the way in OKC)…

And for that I’m very grateful for these 3 OKC games in 13 days, even if we lose. I think that it is going to provide the team a jolt of what it’s like to transition to non-stop high stakes basketball (though we do have a WAS-ATL-WAS break in the middle) which we definitely need. But it is also going to give the Front Office and Coaching staff an advance look at what we need to close the gap.

While I don’t think we do anything major at the deadline, I think the FO looks at what happens in this OKC series and identifies a clear need and tries to address it now. After all, that is what waiting until the offseason is all about. It’s about getting all of the data in and seeing how this team performs at the highest stakes. Well, we get a sneak preview of that here.

Again, I’m not saying I think this series make us go after Giannis or something, but it might get the FO to make some moves on a PF, a 3&D wing, or a 3rd string C.

 

[spurraider21]

i dont think its open if OKC is healthy, unless wemby comes back with a vengeance and has another mini-leap midseason. but other than OKC, i dont think any matchup feels impossible. denver would still be favored of course. GSW has proven to give us issues when healthy. phoenix has had our number this year. wolves beat us too though that was without wemby.

the spurs have at least a punchers chance against anybody other than this current iteration of OKC.

but the other side of that coin is, this team has yet to experience a playoff series. every team loses before they win. a 1 seed OKC squad lost to a more experienced Luka in the second round a couple of years ago. nuggets made the playoffs for 4 years before winning theirs. tatum celtics had already been to the finals, lost to miami in the ECF, before then taking the next step and winning it all.

 

[Exstatic]

Our window might be more open than I thought when this thread was started. Regular season is a nice 82-game warmup for the only thing that really tells us about our window and that's the playoffs. My guess is that we'll roll with what we have this season, with maybe a minor switcheroo at the trade deadline/waiver wire. The real shaping of our team will happen in the summer and will be informed by our playoff performance. We could quite possibly have the 4 or 5 seed or end up in the play-in and get a bad matchup (PHX) and be one and done. In my view, we are playing at the best-case scenario level I imagined during the offseason. Truly remarkable. This coaching staff seems to be succeeding in cleaning u some of our weaknesses while creating great cohesion and winning. The team as a whole, FO/Coaches/Players, seems more aligned and energized than in recent years. At least, that's what I sense. I was hoping we'd be where we are now by next season. So, in that view, the Championship Window is very possibly starting to open.

To support this: nobody thought we were contenders in 1999 or 2003.

 

[Mugen]

Lol I didn't realise mugen's post was from 6 weeks ago

I'm still standing by it tbh.

OKC is obviously in their own tier, their record speaks for itself, I think they'll win 70+, etc...

But I'm not putting them in the Kobe/Shaq 3peat Lakers, the KD Dubs, or even the 2014 Spurs class yet where I think it's a foregone conclusion they ring if they're healthy.

They were, frankly, an Aaron Gordon and/or Haliburton injury away last playoffs from being bounced and the narrative would look a lot different this year.

They're heavy favorites this season but not necessarily because I think they're super dominant but rather cuz the East is shit and nobody out West looks that great to me.

Like I think a fully healthy Spurs team that reaches its ceiling this season takes them to 6+ games in a series. I'd frankly put a healthy, peak Denver team in a coin flip series with them as well.

Now if the Clippers gift them a Top 3 pick in this upcoming draft, I'll be changing my tune next year tbh

 

[RC_Drunkford]

said it before and I'll say it again: We're in the same tier as Houston and Denver. OKC is in an tier of it's own. So technically we are contenders, we're just not the favorites and have 0 playoff experience. With the right seeding, we can make it to the WCF though.

 

[timtonymanu]

I respect @Mugen for choosing to die on the hill for that take lol.

Better than “omg they’re gonna 3peat. We have no chance. ” takes that are coming around on here lol.

 

[LeBowen]

The biggest advantage this OKC team has is that they got over the hump and won a ring already.
It was a huge burden not just for the players, but for the entire franchise.

On the other hand, starting the regular season so well is becoming a burden because they'll surely want to break the record, which will surely consume more energy than wanted.

Modern NBA is so random and even though their start has been ridiculous, just look at what happened to the Cetlics in that Knicks series even before Tatum went down.
Everyone thought they were the heavy favorites to repeat, but they looked completely flat.
Porzingis was injured, but that was to be expected.
We'll see how OKC does against us without Hartenstein, they can't replace his impact directly.

Also, come the playoffs I don't think the refs will be on OKC's side because the league has no interest in having a dynasty in Oklahoma of all places.

 

[scott]

said it before and I'll say it again: We're in the same tier as Houston and Denver. OKC is in an tier of it's own. So technically we are contenders, we're just not the favorites and have 0 playoff experience. With the right seeding, we can make it to the WCF though.

With the right seeding, we could back our way into a chip... but we'd be underdogs every step of the way.

Requires us landing the 2 or 3 seed, Denver the 4. DEN beats OKC in Rd 2, we beat HOU, then we beat DEN in the WCF. This is the only way I can see it happening, as right now DEN looks like the only team who can challenge OKC in a 7 game series... but let's talk again in two weeks after we play them 3 times.

 

[spurraider21]

i stll have us a tier below denver because we are not battle tested in the playoffs

 

[ffadicted]

i stll have us a tier below denver because we are not battle tested in the playoffs

This is the biggest factor for me honestly. Realistically our key pieces are in place, they need development but we aren't searching for a star anymore. We need some more reliable support pieces to improve on sure, but the biggest factor is developing our core of Fox, Castle, Harper, and Wemby. I wouldn't even consider Fox to be really battle tested. A nice second round loss will go a long way into putting some hair on these boys chests

 

[DTW]

The Thunder are still being underrated.

Yes, the Nuggets limped into their series on short rest and with Gordon and Porter Jr. playing injured, but the average point differential was 9.1 despite it going 7. It was only 2.7 against the Pacers, with Haliburton missing most of game 7. I attribute both to classic first time as overwhelming favorite nerves.

Mitchell, injured until the Finals last season, has given them another needed creator to pair with Williams in the non Gilgeous-Alexander minutes.

Health willing, I expect this team to break the regular season wins record, run through the playoffs (I'd give only the Nuggets a puncher's chance) and cement the strongest case for greatest single season team of all time.

I'd give the Spurs a puncher's - decent chance against any team in a series but them.

 

[couchman]

I keep telling y’all

 

[dastexan]

This Spurs team is going to be a REAL PROBLEM for most teams for a long time and real soon

For a long time.

 

[MannyIG]

I do not want to fuck with this. We do not need to trade anyone. They are so ahead of schedule. Do not fuck with this!