Player The blessed howl's moving Castle of Stephon Javonte

MannyIG said:
I will say this though, I don't think he's ever going back to shooting sub 30%. I don't know that he's a 40% shooter from deep, or even 35%, but nothing makes me think he's where he was last year.
Click to expand...
Yeah, when I posed "turned the corner" I was thinking from a sub30% guy, to a can't leave him wide open guy so like 33-34%. So not that he was a now a good shooter moving forward, just a much better one that's permanently progressed passed awful shooter stage (he ranked dead-last last yr, 174 of 174 qualifiers from deep).

I think its pretty hard to go from worst to above average over more than 1/2 a season without there being actual development. A lot of that is just learning which shots not to take and I do think he's (largely) turned a corner on those.
 
John B said:
I kept hearing the Guard Whisperer telling him he’s going to be All-NBA… damn those hard work are really paying off
Click to expand...
Same here, but for me, slightly different context. When he went through that slump earlier in the season where he wasn't taking outside shots and was just trying to bull his way to the basket and draw fouls, I was sort of questioning the TGW has filled his head with too much of that talk, and that he's trying to live up to it. It's the only point since Steph's been with the Spurs that my supreme confidence in him started to really waver a bit.

I won't claim to say I was his number one fan (I'd say I was one of his top 5 fans as I believed he can play PG once he got enough reps at it - I thought he'd keep improving as that is what he always does when he sets out to do something, so he just needed more time at it), but when his shot wasn't going in and he was trying to always force his way to the basket during that little bit of a slump he was in, I was actually thinking back to those videos where TGW keep saying all-star, all-nba etc. and just felt they had filled his head with too muchm and that he was trying hard to live up to it.

Steph's a super hard worker and I believe he puts pressure on himself to get to where he wants to get to. That is what makes him great.
 
Last edited:
Ariel said:
Peak Jimmy is playoffs Jimmy, which is a #1 option on a finals team. Most loved Castle's upside and he's exceeded every expectation, but he's not close to that level yet. Let's keep the sanity.
Click to expand...
You can't possibility make a distinction between regular season, apples to apples comparisons?
Perhaps the context wasn't clear from using season averages. I was talking about regular season performance, which is what awards are based on.
Yes, your orange is correct and it is not an apple. Playoffs are not the same as regular season. Statistically, this fucking season, Castle compares extremely favorably to anything Jimmy Butler did until he got to Miami.
 
Ariel said:
Peak Jimmy is playoffs Jimmy, which is a #1 option on a finals team. Most loved Castle's upside and he's exceeded every expectation, but he's not close to that level yet. Let's keep the sanity.
Click to expand...
*Jimmy Butler was the veteran face of a #7 seed, ensemble team built around defense, who was 1a to a 25y/o AS Bam's 1b*
But fine. RIP Hamilton was the #1 option on a finals team. Not all #1 options are created the same, but Jimmy was the guy, Jimmy hugely stepped in up in the playoffs and took his team to the conference finals, then the finals.

I'll retract peak, because I think you lost the point in semantics. The regular season is the only thing Steph has played, I was purely talking about historic, regular season performance.
Steph is already playing at 25-28y/o Jimmy Butler level this season and in a similar role. He's the #2/3 option behind HOF Center and a multi-AS PG who gets the tough D match-ups. (Will you get distracted by HOF Center? Wemby is not a HOF center, he hasn't played long enough, let's keep the sanity)

Comps are never perfect, but this is a pretty good comp and I don't think people realize how close it is today. That was the point of the post. Not reading into peak.

Jimmy was 25 and the 3rd option behind Rose and Pau when he made his first AS team. Soph Steph had objectively a more productive season in 8 minutes less per game.
Similar story the next yr with a beleaguered Rose giving Jimmy a marginal jump in usage. The next yr Jimmy was 1b next to hometown hero Dwayne Wade with another marginal jump in usage.
It is not insane to note that Steph, this season, outpaced what Jimmy Butler did from ages 25-28 in: ORB% and DRB% and Ast%. Their TS% and FTr and usage are all extremely close. Jimmy had a slight edge in Stock% but as a scorer Steph has an identical per 100 scoring rate before Jimmy's usage climbed.

That is objectively the level Steph has maintain this season. Jimmy played more minutes, Steph has gone from <26mpg to start last yr, to <29 to finish, to >30mpg and climbing. Steph is playing at early-middle prime Butler level today.
 
Arguendo said:
*Jimmy Butler was the veteran face of a #7 seed, ensemble team built around defense, who was 1a to a 25y/o AS Bam's 1b*
But fine. RIP Hamilton was the #1 option on a finals team. Not all #1 options are created the same, but Jimmy was the guy, Jimmy hugely stepped in up in the playoffs and took his team to the conference finals, then the finals.

I'll retract peak, because I think you lost the point in semantics. The regular season is the only thing Steph has played, I was purely talking about historic, regular season performance.
Steph is already playing at 25-28y/o Jimmy Butler level this season and in a similar role. He's the #2/3 option behind HOF Center and a multi-AS PG who gets the tough D match-ups. (Will you get distracted by HOF Center? Wemby is not a HOF center, he hasn't played long enough, let's keep the sanity)

Comps are never perfect, but this is a pretty good comp and I don't think people realize how close it is today. That was the point of the post. Not reading into peak.

Jimmy was 25 and the 3rd option behind Rose and Pau when he made his first AS team. Soph Steph had objectively a more productive season in 8 minutes less per game.
Similar story the next yr with a beleaguered Rose giving Jimmy a marginal jump in usage. The next yr Jimmy was 1b next to hometown hero Dwayne Wade with another marginal jump in usage.
It is not insane to note that Steph, this season, outpaced what Jimmy Butler did from ages 25-28 in: ORB% and DRB% and Ast%. Their TS% and FTr and usage are all extremely close. Jimmy had a slight edge in Stock% but as a scorer Steph has an identical per 100 scoring rate before Jimmy's usage climbed.

That is objectively the level Steph has maintain this season. Jimmy played more minutes, Steph has gone from <26mpg to start last yr, to <29 to finish, to >30mpg and climbing. Steph is playing at early-middle prime Butler level today.
Click to expand...
I gotta push back on this. Peak regular season Jimmy is 27 year old in his last season with the Bulls. The biggest difference between peak kJimmy and current Castle was that Jimmy could consistently drive efficient halfcourt offense as the primary playmaker and Castle (over this entire season) cannot.

I get what you're saying regarding rebounding, AST%, TS%, and FTR, and I agree that stylistically they seem similar. However, here are efficiencies of different playtypes between the two players (keep in mind we're talking peak Jimmy vs current Castle):
Castle RAPM.webpPeak Butler RAPM.webp

I'm looking primarily at the difference in PPP %ile in handler and iso possessions and you can see that while Jimmy was pretty elite in driving efficiency as a handler, Castle is abysmal. The primary reasons for the differences in PPP are 1) small contribution in FT percentage and 2) huge contribution of turnovers. Jimmy's turned it over on 11% of his handler possessions while Castle's TO% is 27%(!). Additionally, you can see that Castle's TS% is buoyed by his relatively large percentage of transition opportunities which are inherently more efficient playtypes, and surprisingly enough relatively efficient spot-up shooting. I think what this shows me is that Castle's most efficient playtypes relative to the league are still where he functions as a finisher and cutter, and he still has a ways to go to drive efficient halfcourt offense. This probably doesn't matter in the future if he's playing with Wemby all the time or with another ballhandler like Fox or Harper, and it doesn't take into effect his improvement over the last couple months, but it's still a massive stretch to compare him to peak Jimmy even if their surface numbers appear similar.

Age 24 Jimmy is probably a closer comparison to Castle with regards to playtypes and efficiency although Jimmy still has him beat slightly. But honestly, if you can get peak Jimmy efficiency by the time Castle's in his mid-20s, that's a massive win:

Jimmy Butler age 24 RAPM.webp
 
Something to watch out for with there being a pretty viable pathway to All NBA 3rd Team (IMO) for Castle...

If he does make All NBA 3rd team this year (Year 2), then if he makes an All NBA again next year (Year 3) then he will have qualified for a "Rookie Super Max" extension (30% of the cap). This would be by virtue of making All NBA two of the three years ahead of his extension.

By contrast, Wemby cannot qualify for the Rookie Super Max this season by making an All NBA team or winning DPOY. He can only qualify this year by winning MVP (which I think it is safe to say at this point he probably won't). So Wemby will still have to play 65 games (unless they change this, but that would require a CBA amendment) and win DPOY or make All NBA again next year.

I haven't penciled Castle in for a Rookie Super Max in any of my projections... but we might just need to. If he does, it's about a $9.1 million difference in his starting salary in 2028-2029.
 
i see Castle making the 3rd team as quite a long shot

keep in mind that both Cade and Luka could be looking at the hardship exemption thingys, and both guys would be locks ahead of Castle anyway, but looking down the list

SGA/Jokic/Wemby/Jaylen Brown/Nephew
Mitchell/Brunson/Durant/Maxey/Jalen Johnson

i think those groups of 5 are locks to make it

then there's the 4 of Avdjia, Booker, KAT, Jamal Murray who i think are cleanly ahead of Castle this year, leaving one spot...

and i dont think Castle would get the nod over other guys like Sengun, Barnes, Bam, or even a guys like Duren/Lamelo. if either of Luka/Cade get eligiblity, it just shuts the door further
 
Wemby is already a virtual lock for DPOY/All-NBA stuff next year provided he plays 65 games, and Castle's path is even narrower is sneaking onto an all-nba team during year 4 would represent his only path

but even then, you never know what type of extension he'll sign. Chet took the max from OKC and agreed to have no rose-rule language in his deal, meaning even if chet made an all-nba team this year or won DPOY or whatever, he wouldnt get bumped up to supermax money
 
scott said:
Something to watch out for with there being a pretty viable pathway to All NBA 3rd Team (IMO) for Castle...

If he does make All NBA 3rd team this year (Year 2), then if he makes an All NBA again next year (Year 3) then he will have qualified for a "Rookie Super Max" extension (30% of the cap). This would be by virtue of making All NBA two of the three years ahead of his extension.

By contrast, Wemby cannot qualify for the Rookie Super Max this season by making an All NBA team or winning DPOY. He can only qualify this year by winning MVP (which I think it is safe to say at this point he probably won't). So Wemby will still have to play 65 games (unless they change this, but that would require a CBA amendment) and win DPOY or make All NBA again next year.

I haven't penciled Castle in for a Rookie Super Max in any of my projections... but we might just need to. If he does, it's about a $9.1 million difference in his starting salary in 2028-2029.
Click to expand...
He is going to get it. Dude is already an organic-variety triple-double threat on nightly basis at age 21 :st-lol: . His trajectory is ominous because he has supreme worth ethic and elite winner mentally all wrapped up in an even-keel yet fiercely competitive personality, .i.e a young Kawhi with social skills. Those guys tend to blow up in ways you never expected.
 
spurraider21 said:
i see Castle making the 3rd team as quite a long shot

keep in mind that both Cade and Luka could be looking at the hardship exemption thingys, and both guys would be locks ahead of Castle anyway, but looking down the list

SGA/Jokic/Wemby/Jaylen Brown/Nephew
Mitchell/Brunson/Durant/Maxey/Jalen Johnson

i think those groups of 5 are locks to make it

then there's the 4 of Avdjia, Booker, KAT, Jamal Murray who i think are cleanly ahead of Castle this year, leaving one spot...

and i dont think Castle would get the nod over other guys like Sengun, Barnes, Bam, or even a guys like Duren/Lamelo. if either of Luka/Cade get eligiblity, it just shuts the door further
Click to expand...
I know about Luka, but what’s Cade’s case for hardship?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

OK Computer
Player Shrine of the one and only Manu… Ladies and gentlemen, Emanuel Miller!
Replies
5
Views
295
The Truth #6
The Truth #6
TDomination
Analysis Brian Windhorst: “Spurs are a playoff contender”
7 8 9
Replies
206
Views
7K
LeBowen
LeBowen
Fabbs
Lobs. The vast improvement of the incoming passes.
Replies
2
Views
130
bozhemoi
bozhemoi
scott
CALL YOUR SHOT: The 2025-26 BaselineBums Bold Predictions Thread
2 3
Replies
54
Views
2K
elpimpo4cc
elpimpo4cc
Sugus
  • Poll Poll
Analysis The Race for Home-Court Advantage - 25/26 Playoffs Seed Tracker
121 122 123
Replies
3K
Views
48K
wEmBoY
wEmBoY
Back
Top