Player The blessed howl's moving Castle of Stephon Javonte

[SpursBills]

I think next season the question of Castle's contract extension is going to get very very interesting. He's arguably the second most important player on the team and a very interesting player in the sense that he generates high levels of points/rebounds/assists and his impact with Wemby is elite but his percentages and impact metrics actually crater without Wemby, even more so than other players on the team. He also has trouble scaling up his usage (turnovers/75 increase from 3 to 5.1 and AST:TO goes from 2.2 to 1.6 without Wemby this season) suggesting that his best role at this point is still as a slashing wing that functions as a secondary playmaker.

Until he's able to demonstrate otherwise, his skillset of elite perimeter defense, high level playmaking, high level athleticism, and mediocre outside shot give him an obvious future comp: Andre Iguodala. I'm not talking about Warriors Iguodala who was a little past his prime, but more Sixers Iguodala who was one of the top 5 perimeter defenders in the league and could get you 20/5/5 and offered high level playmaking out of the wing. Iguodala was slightly bigger, somehow even more athletic, but Castle's vision and playmaking as well as his rim pressure are better. Iggy also carried approximately 2.3:1 AST:TO throughout his career and shot a respectable 33% from 3. Either way, this is probably the closest comp I can think of right now. The question then becomes if you would be happy paying an Iguodala-type player a 5 year/270-280 million extension. Obviously, this is dictated by the Spurs success over the next 2 seasons and how much further development that we see, but to me at least a Sengun-like contract where he gets maybe 20-22% rather than the full 25% max probably makes more sense. This would likely put him at something like 5/210-220, which would give the Spurs additional cap flexibility.

Again, I'd be very interested to see the Thompson twins' extension this summer - Castle is a much more portable player than either the twins as his shooting has progressed further, but it should at least offer a ballpark as to where his extension next year would lean

 

[Ariel]

Stats-wise 21 y.o. sophomore Castle is already producing at a similar level as peak 25 y.o. 5 year vet Iguodala:




Rookie extensions are typically based on projection and I think it'd be hard to sell Castle that his peak is Iguodala. Also, Spurs recently did not negotiate their own rookies as hard as, say, Atlanta (Jalen Johnson) and Houston (Sengun) did. My guess is, if Castle doesn't regress and his shooting continues to improve, they'll agree to a 5-year extension with no options at max or near max value, ideally descending or even flat.

As for references, I think Amen is the more interesting comp, but he should probably also be looking at what Duren gets (similar 2nd option ceiling on a good team). Ausar and Peyton Watson should set the floor for him, he probably would like to distance himself from those guys and rightfully so.

 

[SpursBills]

Stats-wise 21 y.o. sophomore Castle is already producing at a similar level as peak 25 y.o. 5 year vet Iguodala:

View attachment 1408
View attachment 1409

Rookie extensions are typically based on projection and I think it'd be hard to sell Castle that his peak is Iguodala. Also, Spurs recently did not negotiate their own rookies as hard as, say, Atlanta (Jalen Johnson) and Houston (Sengun) did. My guess is, if Castle doesn't regress and his shooting continues to improve, they'll agree to a 5-year extension with no options at max or near max value, ideally descending or even flat.

As for references, I think Amen is the more interesting comp, but he should probably also be looking at what Duren gets (similar 2nd option ceiling on a good team). Ausar and Peyton Watson should set the floor for him, he probably would like to distance himself from those guys and rightfully so.

I think this is one interesting thing about castle, that as his raw points/rebs/ast are elite and will continue to likely improve over time, they overstate his impact metrics and I haven’t yet figured out how to square that circle. You are right that he is producing similar to age 25 Iggy as a 21 year old sophomore. However, when we look at something like RAPM, he was at -2.2 last year and +0.4 this year while iggy’s first 3 years in the league ranged from +1 to +2.3. We see similar disparities with regards to other metrics like darko, lebron, etc, basically everything except epm.

As another reference, do we feel he’s better or worse as a future prospect compared to Scottie Barnes? Keeping in mind that Barnes is himself an elite defender, strength based creator, and legitimate point forward. I hear a lot about how Barnes’s rookie max was an overpay.

I’m glad that you bring up Duren also, I think if Duren got the rookie max, you will see many posters here call that a massive overpay

 

[Raven_]

I think next season the question of Castle's contract extension is going to get very very interesting. He's arguably the second most important player on the team and a very interesting player in the sense that he generates high levels of points/rebounds/assists and his impact with Wemby is elite but his percentages and impact metrics actually crater without Wemby, even more so than other players on the team. He also has trouble scaling up his usage (turnovers/75 increase from 3 to 5.1 and AST:TO goes from 2.2 to 1.6 without Wemby this season) suggesting that his best role at this point is still as a slashing wing that functions as a secondary playmaker.

Until he's able to demonstrate otherwise, his skillset of elite perimeter defense, high level playmaking, high level athleticism, and mediocre outside shot give him an obvious future comp: Andre Iguodala. I'm not talking about Warriors Iguodala who was a little past his prime, but more Sixers Iguodala who was one of the top 5 perimeter defenders in the league and could get you 20/5/5 and offered high level playmaking out of the wing. Iguodala was slightly bigger, somehow even more athletic, but Castle's vision and playmaking as well as his rim pressure are better. Iggy also carried approximately 2.3:1 AST:TO throughout his career and shot a respectable 33% from 3. Either way, this is probably the closest comp I can think of right now. The question then becomes if you would be happy paying an Iguodala-type player a 5 year/270-280 million extension. Obviously, this is dictated by the Spurs success over the next 2 seasons and how much further development that we see, but to me at least a Sengun-like contract where he gets maybe 20-22% rather than the full 25% max probably makes more sense. This would likely put him at something like 5/210-220, which would give the Spurs additional cap flexibility.

Again, I'd be very interested to see the Thompson twins' extension this summer - Castle is a much more portable player than either the twins as his shooting has progressed further, but it should at least offer a ballpark as to where his extension next year would lean

I don't see castle and iggy having anything in common, especially philly's iggy who was basically carmelo anthony ..

 

[bozhemoi]

I think this is one interesting thing about castle, that as his raw points/rebs/ast are elite and will continue to likely improve over time, they overstate his impact metrics and I haven’t yet figured out how to square that circle. You are right that he is producing similar to age 25 Iggy as a 21 year old sophomore. However, when we look at something like RAPM, he was at -2.2 last year and +0.4 this year while iggy’s first 3 years in the league ranged from +1 to +2.3. We see similar disparities with regards to other metrics like darko, lebron, etc, basically everything except epm.

As another reference, do we feel he’s better or worse as a future prospect compared to Scottie Barnes? Keeping in mind that Barnes is himself an elite defender, strength based creator, and legitimate point forward. I hear a lot about how Barnes’s rookie max was an overpay.

I dunno, but am reminded of how Reed Sheppard blew Castle out of the water in advanced stats entering the draft. It wasn't even close. Castle's advanced stats were just pretty good.

Last night, there was a comment by whoever (van Gundy?) during the Illinois game where an Illinois senior kept a ball alive and in their possession somehow swarmed by Houston players and that this play never would make it on the stat sheet. I'm reminded of that a bit with Castle, where he significantly improves a lot of possessions by being on the court.

Even now Sheppard has a bit better advanced stats than Castle and there's still no comparison to me in who I would pick playing right now.

 

[Ariel]

As another reference, do we feel he’s better or worse as a future prospect compared to Scottie Barnes? Keeping in mind that Barnes is himself an elite defender, strength based creator, and legitimate point forward. I hear a lot about how Barnes’s rookie max was an overpay.

I’m glad that you bring up Duren also, I think if Duren got the rookie max, you will see many posters here call that a massive overpay

Barnes is an interesting comparison: though they were both ROY he had by far the more impressive rookie year (better stats, much more efficient, much better class) but hit a slump his sophomore year, whereas Castle's improvement is very significant. In year 3 Barnes took a massive leap and became an all star, we'll have to wait and see with Castle but assuming he continues that trajectory definitely should be a close comparison.

As for him and Duren being overpaid at a 25% max, Spurs are paying Fox 35% and I don't see many complaining here. Sure, we'd all like for that number to be as low as possible but if that's what it takes to keep him and he continues to produce or hopefully improves, it'll be worth it.

EDIT: should have said Spurs are paying Fox 30-32%

 

[SpursBills]

I don't see castle and iggy having anything in common, especially philly's iggy who was basically carmelo anthony ..

Casual take tbh, iggy played more like Yao Ming in Philly until he got to GS where he transitioned to more of a Chris Paul role.

 

[LeBowen]

Casual take tbh, iggy played more like Yao Ming in Philly until he got to GS where he transitioned to more of a Chris Paul role.

Ignore him, he's been a Castle hater since day one and refuses to accept that he's an idiot.

 

[scott]

If you polled the other 28 coaches about who they would put on a team’s All Star scorer, 28 would pick Castle, and 0 would pick Shepard.

I bet if you asked Ime, he wouldn't pick Reed either, since he seems to hate all his players

 

[Sugus]

I think next season the question of Castle's contract extension is going to get very very interesting. He's arguably the second most important player on the team and a very interesting player in the sense that he generates high levels of points/rebounds/assists and his impact with Wemby is elite but his percentages and impact metrics actually crater without Wemby, even more so than other players on the team. He also has trouble scaling up his usage (turnovers/75 increase from 3 to 5.1 and AST:TO goes from 2.2 to 1.6 without Wemby this season) suggesting that his best role at this point is still as a slashing wing that functions as a secondary playmaker.

Quick, delete this post, don't let Dejounte see that!!

This playoffs are going to be the real test & tell of what Castle's abilities can bring - but if I'm the Spurs FO, and see Castle not only having good dynamics and on-court chemistry with my superstar, but also being the guy you're assigning to the Cade Cunningham's, SGA's, Luka's of opposing playoff teams and doing a good job at it.... How is that player not worth a rookie max extension?

It's great to negotiate contracts and even play a little hardball if the situation arises, but playoffs pending, I don't see that Castle is the guy for that at all. He's been integral to our success this season and elevated his game from last season's on both ends, I wouldn't risk souring his vibes.

 

[OK Computer]

Quick, delete this post, don't let Dejounte see that!!

This playoffs are going to be the real test & tell of what Castle's abilities can bring - but if I'm the Spurs FO, and see Castle not only having good dynamics and on-court chemistry with my superstar, but also being the guy you're assigning to the Cade Cunningham's, SGA's, Luka's of opposing playoff teams and doing a good job at it.... How is that player not worth a rookie max extension?

It's great to negotiate contracts and even play a little hardball if the situation arises, but playoffs pending, I don't see that Castle is the guy for that at all. He's been integral to our success this season and elevated his game from last season's on both ends, I wouldn't risk souring his vibes.

The stats say he’s one of our best playmakers next to Victor Wembanyama, yet the conclusion is that he should be less of a playmaker because he doesn’t perform as well without the franchise cornerstone. That makes no sense. These narratives never fail to disappoint.

Despite the complaints, I’m happy that Castle’s role will continue as it is, with no significant change to how involved he is in the offense. Luckily, the Spurs still believe in him and attribute much of their success to his playmaking, despite the narratives being pushed and the fans who fail to recognize his value as a playmaker.

 

[dn0774]

Quick, delete this post, don't let Dejounte see that!!

This playoffs are going to be the real test & tell of what Castle's abilities can bring - but if I'm the Spurs FO, and see Castle not only having good dynamics and on-court chemistry with my superstar, but also being the guy you're assigning to the Cade Cunningham's, SGA's, Luka's of opposing playoff teams and doing a good job at it.... How is that player not worth a rookie max extension?

It's great to negotiate contracts and even play a little hardball if the situation arises, but playoffs pending, I don't see that Castle is the guy for that at all. He's been integral to our success this season and elevated his game from last season's on both ends, I wouldn't risk souring his vibes.

That sentiment is how teams are getting themselves into trouble in the apron era CBA it seems like. The rookie max isn't as punishing of course, but most gm's seem to be operating under the guidance of "if a legitimate discussion needs to be had of whether a guy should get the max, then he probably shouldn't get the max". That is to say the max in the apron era needs to be reserved for only the mega-obvious guys (Wemby), players where there clearly doesn't need to be a discussion because they are so obviously max guys.

I hate the thought of hurting team vibes/chemistry with contract stuff but it is inevitably going to happen. The good news for Castle (and the Spurs) is he still has 1 more full season to elevate himself into that "no brainer" max territory. If he has similar year-over-year improvement again next year he is firmly in that conversation.

I've heard it mentioned that there are basically 60 max slots (2 per team) available in the league but that isn't taking into account that many of those are considered bad contracts. I'd put the number closer to 30-40 if I had to guess off hand of guys who are credibly legit max players. Fox is certainly a fringe max guy but we had other motivations (and a clean cap sheet) that made a slight overpay worthwhile.

Idk, might be a convo for a different topic, I just hope when Castle is up for extension we don't just throw max money at him to keep him happy and that his play completely deserves it.

 

[OK Computer]

In the past, fans would point out roster gaps based on positions. If you didn’t have a big, a wing, and a point guard, it was seen as a flaw.

What people aren’t fully catching yet is that this is shifting, and honestly it already feels a little delayed. The conversation is moving away from rigid positions and toward playmaking. Soon, if a team doesn’t have three playmaking guards, the takeaway will be that there’s a hole at that third guard spot. That’s the direction things are going. That’s the standard.

Because of that old mindset, people are still trying to force Dylan Harper into being a single, defacto point guard, instead of recognizing how he actually fits within a multi-playmaker system.

 

[scott]

The stats say he’s one of our best playmakers next to Victor Wembanyama, yet the conclusion is that he should be less of a playmaker because he doesn’t perform as well without the franchise cornerstone. That makes no sense. These narratives never fail to disappoint.

Castle’s role will continue as it is, with no significant change to how involved he is in the offense. Luckily, the Spurs still believe in him and attribute much of their success to the playmaking of Castle, despite the narratives being pushed and the fans who fail to recognize his value as a playmaker.

I disagree with the positioning of this argument. I don't think anyone is suggestion that Castle should be less of a playmaker, just that he shouldn't be the primary ball handler and should do his playmaking as a wing. But YTD, his On-ball % is 32.6% compared to Fox at 30.8... the result is that Castle averaged 5.1 TOV/100 while Fox is at 3.5 TOV/100. The gap in on-ball % has tightened as of late with the Spurs playing Fox more on ball... and during that stretch, Castle has thrived, bouncing back from a rough patch in January.

I think we conflate playmaking with being primarily on-ball or being a "PG" (whatever that means these days). I continue to buy into the idea that Fox, Castle and Harper are just guards in the Spurs system. We don't have PG or SG... just G. Likewise, we don't have SF or PF, just Wing (and all our guys fit the same overall mold now that Sochan is gone - of course they each have their own strengths and weaknesses but I think they are all similar broad archetypes with some specific skewed traits).

Castle has been taken off ball as much in this Feb-Mar run, but it hasn't impacted his playmaking at all, in fact I'd argue its better than ever. Let's just keep doing that.

 

[OK Computer]

I disagree with the positioning of this argument. I don't think anyone is suggestion that Castle should be less of a playmaker, just that he shouldn't be the primary ball handler and should do his playmaking as a wing. But YTD, his On-ball % is 32.6% compared to Fox at 30.8... the result is that Castle averaged 5.1 TOV/100 while Fox is at 3.5 TOV/100. The gap in on-ball % has tightened as of late with the Spurs playing Fox more on ball... and during that stretch, Castle has thrived, bouncing back from a rough patch in January.

I think we conflate playmaking with being primarily on-ball or being a "PG" (whatever that means these days). I continue to buy into the idea that Fox, Castle and Harper are just guards in the Spurs system. We don't have PG or SG... just G. Likewise, we don't have SF or PF, just Wing (and all our guys fit the same overall mold now that Sochan is gone - of course they each have their own strengths and weaknesses but I think they are all similar broad archetypes with some specific skewed traits).

Castle has been taken off ball as much in this Feb-Mar run, but it hasn't impacted his playmaking at all, in fact I'd argue its better than ever. Let's just keep doing that.

See my post before yours. We’re aligned here.

What bothers me is that people still haven’t caught on, so they build narratives around which guard “sees the floor better” instead of understanding how this actually works. It’s not about choosing one over the other. It’s about how all of them function together.

That’s the shift that’s being missed. Instead of viewing Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper as separate roles competing for control, they should be seen as one collective playmaking unit within the system.

 

[ambchang]

I’m telling y’all, with castles build and athleticism, him as a roller with wemby as the ball handler on a pick and roll would be freaking unstoppable. Other than a few gigantic centers (Jokic, Adams, who wemby can just take one on one anyways) castle can set a pick on any center. That would be his destiny.

 

[Raven_]

Ignore him, he's been a Castle hater since day one and refuses to accept that he's an idiot.

i'm not hating at all, i just stated a fact and that pisses you off because i have been right all along and that hurts you

 

[Paramore]

 

[LeBowen]

i'm not hating at all, i just stated a fact and that pisses you off because i have been right all along and that hurts you

You do realize saying "I'm right and you're wrong" doesn't actually mean you're right?
You're trying to gaslight this entire forum into believing Castle is a bad defender since the day he got drafted and I'm the only idiot even replying to your moronic takes.
If it was up to me, I'd ban you for trolling because noone can be this dumb, you're just trying to bait people into engaging with you.

 

[frenchfred]

Let’s assume Wemby, him and Harper get the max. What kind of money will the Spurs have to build a team around those three?

 

[John B]

I was telling some NBA scout on here that Castle is our PG of now and the future. Unfortunately they were trying to move him over for Harper, when there's absolutely no need to. After Fox is moved in a few years, look for Harper to play the SG or SF position. We have a bonafide superstar in the making already at PG.

Castle and Harper can share PG responsibilities, nobody needs to be the SG/SF. It’s just positionless basketball, which is what this team is becoming more and more.

 

[spurs3223]

See my post before yours. We’re aligned here.

What bothers me is that people still haven’t caught on, so they build narratives around which guard “sees the floor better” instead of understanding how this actually works. It’s not about choosing one over the other. It’s about how all of them function together.

That’s the shift that’s being missed. Instead of viewing Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper as separate roles competing for control, they should be seen as one collective playmaking unit within the system.

Yeah I don't know how you could watch this season and still feel having three incredible playmaking guards -- two of whom are oversized and play great defense -- is a problem the Spurs have to solve. Clearly, the players have checked egos at the door and made it a problem OTHER teams have to solve.

That said, I *do* want to see each of them getting around 30 MPG next season and that is contingent on the kind of outside shooting we've been seeing from them lately becoming a real, stable thing. If they can shoot well to some degree, they'll siphon a few minutes away from Vassell, most likely, in order to allow them on the court at the same time for the end of games. I mean I think that's what you would ultimately want: the three-headed monster finishing games together. Any of those three who boosts their outside shot helps the rest of collective actualize its potential, but ideally we see all three of Fox,Harper and Castle continue to nail those catch and shoot threes.

That's the wet dream, anyway.

 

[spurs3223]

Let’s assume Wemby, him and Harper get the max. What kind of money will the Spurs have to build a team around those three?

I'm no cap expert so I'm sure others can chime in but I think a lot of this speculation is contingent on a new CBA down the road. I feel like teams may have begun to resent the handcuffs of the current one, with all the Apron paralysis. Plus we're gonna be expanding the league pretty soon. I reckon it's gonna be a bit of a different league when the bill comes for our young folks.

 

[Exstatic]

Castle and Harper can share PG responsibilities, nobody needs to be the SG/SF. It’s just positionless basketball, which is what this team is becoming more and more.

Pistons won two titles with the two headed PG of Thomas and Dumars. As long as neither is a knuckle head, it can work seamlessly.

 

[spurs3223]

i'm not hating at all, i just stated a fact and that pisses you off because i have been right all along and that hurts you

Right about what exactly? I'm kinda curious. I see you've recently delivered the "uncomfortable truth" that Reed Sheppard averages more steals and blocks than Castle as if that is something that should make us uncomfortable. Is there a wider angle lens view that I'm missing? Reed has great hands and surprising verticality and is a genuine playmaker on defense that few men his size are.

He's also a traffic cone.