Game Thread Spurs (55-18) @ Bucks (29-43) (Sat 3/28/2026) [2:00PM CDT]

[BatManu20]

We're back boys. Spurs are in Milwaukee on Saturday afternoon as we take on a tanking Bucks team that have lost 4 of their last 5 and 12 of their last 15, including a 32-point loss @ Portland last night.

No official IR yet, but last night Giannis (left knee hyperextension), Kevin Porter Jr. (right knee soreness), Gary Harris (groin), Bobby Portis Jr. (right wrist sprain), and Kuzma (right achilles soreness) were all OUT vs. Portland.

Fox and Korndog were both OUT last game for the Spurs. Hopefully those guys are ready to go on Saturday and everyone else is available.


Bucks are currently ranked:

- 25th in NetRtg
- 25th in Off. Rating
- 25th in Def. Rating
- 23rd in Pace (at 93.84 possessions per 48)
- 3rd in eFG% at 53.4%
- 28th in Reb. %
- Dead last in O-Reb. %
- 16th in Ast. %
- 22nd in Ast/TO Ratio

Spurs haven't been great in afternoon games in recent memory tbh. No excuses not to beat this short-handed tanking Bucks team though. Spurs also basically need win out the rest of the way and hope OKC drops 2-3 games if they want to get that #1-Seed. One game at a time.

Let's get it.

 

[BatManu20]

IR coming.

 

[BatManu20]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2037195491705053262

 

[BatManu20]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2037274367898341873

 

[BatManu20]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2037293565772964088

 

[spurraider21]

Bucks looked like they had some promise when they were winning some back in February when Giannis was out. but they've gone 3-11 in march so far and the vibes are awful. theyve been getting crushed in most of these recent losses too

this should be another game where the starters play about 25-26 minutes apiece

 

[scott]

Thankfully they released Spurs killer Cam Thomas

 

[BatManu20]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2037262075014074475

 

[dn0774]

 

[Sugus]

The Athletic’s All-“Players Who Have Surprised Us This Season”-Team. First team: Jalen Duren, Nickeil Alexander, Jaylon Tyson, Ajay Mitchell, Neemias Queta. Second team: Ryan Rollins, Collin Gillespie, Keyonte George, Anthony Black, Peyton Watson

Athletic's top-ten list of most surprising players this season, featuring... Zero players from a top seeded team which literally nobody expected to be great this season.

Well, I guess that means they're carried by a superstar that lifts them up so much that their dominance is expected..... Surely a Most Valuable Player type of guy.

...what?! He's not good enough to get that either?!

 

[dn0774]

The Athletic’s All-“Players Who Have Surprised Us This Season”-Team. First team: Jalen Duren, Nickeil Alexander, Jaylon Tyson, Ajay Mitchell, Neemias Queta. Second team: Ryan Rollins, Collin Gillespie, Keyonte George, Anthony Black, Peyton Watson

Athletic's top-ten list of most surprising players this season, featuring... Zero players from a top seeded team which literally nobody expected to be great this season.

Well, I guess that means they're carried by a superstar that lifts them up so much that their dominance is expected..... Surely a Most Valuable Player type of guy.

...what?! He's not good enough to get that either?!

One thing i've internally given some thought to but haven't mentioned: usually when a team exceeds expectations as significantly as we have (should win 60 after being expected to win 44) it coincides with an unexpected significant leap by a player (or multiple) to help account for the improvement. I would argue that hasn't really happened, our guys have mostly just played to expectations and yet the results have been amazing.

For example, Castle improved obviously, but 2nd year improvement is expected. Wemby is great of course, but his improvement was incremental as well. Can't forget Mitch being fully given the keys, either.

When the Warriors became elite it was mostly due to Curry and Draymond having incredible season over season improvement (and dumping Mark Jackson), that kind of improvement is difficult to project. I expect young guys to get better until about 26 or so, I don't expect random undersized 2nd round picks (Draymond) to become a generational defensive anchor/offensive hub
in their 3rd season.

The Spurs still have plenty of meat on the bone to reach a theoretical ceiling. Wemby still has plenty of room for physical development as well as offensive refinement. The sky is the limit for Harper. Castle is 21. Carter has all the athleticism in the world.

 

[spurraider21]

^agreed

i think it was within expectations that wemby would improve, that castle would improve (perhaps not by this much), that Fox would develop chemistry, that kornet would be a solid backup C, that harper would be a good rookie, that vassell/champagnie could improve their 3pt shooting somewhat. that carter bryant could sneak into the bottom of the rotation and provide some energy. none of those things on their own would have been very surprising. but all of them happening at once? yeah thats when the team success exceeds expectations

the one genuine surprise is probably keldon

 

[bluebellmaniac]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2037195491705053262

Shouldn't our NET rating be 13.8?

 

[spurraider21]

Shouldn't our NET rating be 13.8?

offense, defense, and special teams

 

[spurraider21]

but the real answer is that for ORTG we are +8.8 relative to an average of 116.5 (so our ORTG is 125.3), and for DRTG we are -5.0 from an average of 116.2 (so our DRTG is 111.2), so the delta there is 14.1

at least thats how the stat is presented. how the league average DRTG could be different from the league average ORTG is slightly confusing to me, but this is the answer to your question

 

[Dbreiden83080]

Bucks are teetering on irrelevance these days. Giannis will be traded this summer. But given his health issues that trade value has been greatly diminished. Milwaukee badly missed the boat when they didn’t trade him this past off-season. Holding out for too many draft picks. Doc Rivers needs to retire and teams need to stop tricking themselves into thinking he’s a good coach. Spurs by 30 if they come with killer instinct.

 

[bozhemoi]

One thing i've internally given some thought to but haven't mentioned: usually when a team exceeds expectations as significantly as we have (should win 60 after being expected to win 44) it coincides with an unexpected significant leap by a player (or multiple) to help account for the improvement. I would argue that hasn't really happened, our guys have mostly just played to expectations and yet the results have been amazing.

For example, Castle improved obviously, but 2nd year improvement is expected. Wemby is great of course, but his improvement was incremental as well. Can't forget Mitch being fully given the keys, either.

When the Warriors became elite it was mostly due to Curry and Draymond having incredible season over season improvement (and dumping Mark Jackson), that kind of improvement is difficult to project. I expect young guys to get better until about 26 or so, I don't expect random undersized 2nd round picks (Draymond) to become a generational defensive anchor/offensive hub
in their 3rd season.

The Spurs still have plenty of meat on the bone to reach a theoretical ceiling. Wemby still has plenty of room for physical development as well as offensive refinement. The sky is the limit for Harper. Castle is 21. Carter has all the athleticism in the world.

I agree. I don't think any Spurs player has necessarily come out of nowhere to play well. The two big surprises are Dev and Keldon clicking into place perfectly, but they weren't coming out of nowhere. The other players improving isn't a surprise in the same way as the article's players coming out of nowhere. Like, the Q guy from the Celtics. That's pretty unexpected.

 

[Dex]

 

[heyheymymy]

 

[Fireball]

Hammer them like the Heat and the Grizzlies. Stay healthy!