Spurs 2026 Playoff Rotation - 9 Man?

[Guru of Nothing]

Who plays? I'm guessing the top 9 below get the nod and CB is told to be ready.

1. Wemby
2. Fox
3. Castle
4. Vassell
5. Champ
6. KJ
7. Harper
8. Kornet
9. Barnes
10. CB

Phoenix Suns are the most likely opponent and I can't read anything into the Spurs most recent rotations.

Feb 19 game was a blowout: https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401810653/suns-spurs

Mar 19 game, no Castle: https://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore/_/gameId/401810868

 

[timtonymanu]

Pretty much agree.

If you switch Champ and Harper on your list, that is basically how I rank the importance of the players on the team. Arguably, you could put Harper over Dev too.

 

[Uriel]

I think CB will get spot minutes in the first round.

 

[Dex]

I think CB will get spot minutes in the first round.

He should be a "use in case of emergency" spark plug...kinda like Belinelli was for us.

 

[inagra]

It will be a 8 man rotation, 90% of the time.

 

[Fireball]

Agree with OP. Especially at the start of the playoffs Mitch will try out what he can get away with, of course pulling plugs earlier than he would in the regular season.
More important is more Fox than Castle when it comes to playing on ball.

 

[Mugen]

Pretty much agree.

If you switch Champ and Harper on your list, that is basically how I rank the importance of the players on the team. Arguably, you could put Harper over Dev too.

Dev is arguably top 3 tbh

 

[Coyote2!]

Is there a specific reason teams restrict their rotations from 10 or 11, to 7 or 8 in the playoffs? Is it a matchup thing where weaker players get targeted and exploited?

 

[Ni-G]

What is the worst possible outcome for playoffs in your opinion guys? In my book it's overtaking OKC for 1st seed just to get beaten by historical performance by nephew in a first round. It would ruin whole summer for me.

Just speculating. Don't hate on me.

 

[Mugen]

What is the worst possible outcome for playoffs in your opinion guys? In my book it's overtaking OKC for 1st seed just to get beaten by historical performance by nephew in a first round. It would ruin whole summer for me.

Just speculating. Don't hate on me.

My man, Wemby is Top 2 in MVP talks and Spurs are in contention for best record in the league. This is all in Year 3 of Victor's career.

Whatever happens in the playoffs, this is just an amazing season. One of my favorites tbh.

 

[John B]

CB is an above average POA defender, plus he can catch and shoot 3’s, rebound and block shots. He will get spot minutes.

 

[SpursBills]

CB should ideally get spot minutes throughout the playoffs. If the spurs make it out of the west and Boston is waiting on the other side he’d be a critical weapon as backup center for when mazzulla runs his Tatum at center 5 out lineups and Kornet probably won’t be able to hang

 

[Exstatic]

What is the worst possible outcome for playoffs in your opinion guys? In my book it's overtaking OKC for 1st seed just to get beaten by historical performance by nephew in a first round. It would ruin whole summer for me.

Just speculating. Don't hate on me.

I’m pretty sure we’re getting the Clippers in the first round, anyway. Phoenix is just a crap team who has very little chance of beating Nephew in the 7/8 play in game.

 

[Arguendo]

It will be a 8 man rotation, 90% of the time.

Yeah, with Barnes and CB getting specialist shooter/defender minutes where needed.
Vic and Steph are under 30mpg on the season, Fox leads us with 31mpg, they're all gonna soak up a lot more time in the post season.

 

[Dbreiden83080]

Use Mr. 10% as little as possible.

I can’t believe the playoffs are like 2 weeks out. Man..

 

[MacNeacail]

Is there a specific reason teams restrict their rotations from 10 or 11, to 7 or 8 in the playoffs? Is it a matchup thing where weaker players get targeted and exploited?

Most teams aren't deep enough to have 10 or 11 really good players. Losing a game in the regular season is not as big a deal as losing one in the playoffs, so you don't want to take your best players out of the game unless it's a major blowout (like 30-40pts). Spurs are a REALLY solid 9-deep without dropping too much talent. That would average 27 minutes per game for each of them. If our best players played 34 minutes each, that would only leave room for 7 players.

During the regular season, it's good to throw fringe players into close-game situations to see how they handle things, but you don't want to be experimenting when it really counts.

Also, you don't want your star players wearing themselves out all season by playing too many minutes, but in the playoffs (with no back to backs), you want them playing with every ounce of energy they have... and hopefully that doesn't leave any minutes remaining for crappy players to have to fill in.

 

[BSfromTX]

CB should get spot min in order to preserve Barnes and Kornet. Not that he can be what Kornet is, but at least better than Plumlee

 

[spurraider21]

our competition will be shortening their rotations as well, so there will be less charity minutes to go around. still, if we arent in the penalty, i dont mind him getting a few minutes at least in the first halves of games as he's been doing.

 

[Raven_]

He should be a "use in case of emergency" spark plug...kinda like Belinelli was for us.

belinelli was never a spark plug for us, at best he was a shot in the leg with an automatic weapon

 

[Arguendo]

Is there a specific reason teams restrict their rotations from 10 or 11, to 7 or 8 in the playoffs? Is it a matchup thing where weaker players get targeted and exploited?

Generally play your starters/6th/best defender and anyone with the hot hand play a lot more barring exhaustion or foul trouble. Typical for All-NBA & two-way All-D guys to maybe get 5 extra mpg, guys like Joker, Luka, Tatum, Maxey, Durant, SGA will only get 90 second breathers here and there until its decided.

And you've gotta be able to trust everyone who checks-in for more than a breather. How many teams have 8 healthy guys today you can actually count on and that aren't a liability on one-side? Guys that will be in position, cut/set picks/box out at the right time, who won't commit stupid fouls, know when to foul and when not to, play in the flow, aren't a sieve on D and who you can't leave wide open. That's usually only the top 6 on a team plus a specialist or two, until exhaustion & foul trouble force you to play a lesser guy.

 

[Dex]

belinelli was never a spark plug for us, at best he was a shot in the leg with an automatic weapon

 

[BacktoBasics]

There is an argument to be made that CB should get minutes over HB.

I won’t make that argument but one should be made.

 

[Seventyniner]

There is an argument to be made that CB should get minutes over HB.

I won’t make that argument but one should made.

CB can give much more credible small ball minutes at the 5 than HB. I expect to see a lot of that when Lopez sits.

Going forward it's more matchup dependent

 

[SpursBills]

I wonder if Mitch will separate Fox and Wemby more during the playoffs than he has. Running a unit of playing Harper + Castle with Wemby and Fox with Kornet might actually yield better results than the current lineup iterations. Castle and Harper are much more dependent on Wemby at this stage of their careers - they get much more efficient and way less turnover prone with Wemby compared to when they play without him:


You can see that both guys have about a 10 point swing in true shooting when with Wemby - Harper's 3 point% goes up 10% as well. I suspect this is because when Wemby is on the floor, he generates a ton of spot up opportunities which both guys are decent at making, while these opportunities dry up with Kornet and Harper/Castle are either forced to make more contested shots or resort to lower efficiency off the dribble jumpers, which they are both weak at currently. Additionally, it should be noted that Castle's turnovers nearly double without Wemby while Harper's turnovers also increase.

However, Wemby's impact on Fox is actually almost the opposite:


What we see is that Fox is arguably a better player with Kornet as opposed to Wemby - minimal effect on TS% without Wemby unlike the steep dropoffs that we see from the young guards, actually increased 3 point%, and minimal increase in turnover rate. Additionally, he's the only one of the 3 to post a (slightly) positive +/- without Wemby. You wonder if this is because without Wemby, Fox reverts to Sacramento Fox with his heavier diet of off-the-dribble jumpers, and he's in more of a rhythm with the ball in his hands more.

All this is to say, I wonder if Fox and Harper should actually be trading places at certain points of the game. I'm not saying that Harper's better than Fox or anything, but just that switching their positions might allow each to play to their strengths more. Starting Manu used to be a "break glass in case of emergency" move for Pop in the past. You wonder if Mitch is considering using that as a change-up in the playoffs if things get dire. A Harper-Castle-Vassell-Champ-Wemby lineup features 4 guys 6'5-6'8 who can switch across positions and no negative defenders, 2 excellent shooters, and 2 decent-to-very good spot-up shooters. This lineup has not seen many minutes at all this season, but might be something worth looking into:

 

[bluebellmaniac]

I wonder if Mitch will separate Fox and Wemby more during the playoffs than he has. Running a unit of playing Harper + Castle with Wemby and Fox with Kornet might actually yield better results than the current lineup iterations. Castle and Harper are much more dependent on Wemby at this stage of their careers - they get much more efficient and way less turnover prone with Wemby compared to when they play without him:

View attachment 1494View attachment 1495
You can see that both guys have about a 10 point swing in true shooting when with Wemby - Harper's 3 point% goes up 10% as well. I suspect this is because when Wemby is on the floor, he generates a ton of spot up opportunities which both guys are decent at making, while these opportunities dry up with Kornet and Harper/Castle are either forced to make more contested shots or resort to lower efficiency off the dribble jumpers, which they are both weak at currently. Additionally, it should be noted that Castle's turnovers nearly double without Wemby while Harper's turnovers also increase.

However, Wemby's impact on Fox is actually almost the opposite:
View attachment 1496View attachment 1497

What we see is that Fox is arguably a better player with Kornet as opposed to Wemby - minimal effect on TS% without Wemby unlike the steep dropoffs that we see from the young guards, actually increased 3 point%, and minimal increase in turnover rate. Additionally, he's the only one of the 3 to post a (slightly) positive +/- without Wemby. You wonder if this is because without Wemby, Fox reverts to Sacramento Fox with his heavier diet of off-the-dribble jumpers, and he's in more of a rhythm with the ball in his hands more.

All this is to say, I wonder if Fox and Harper should actually be trading places at certain points of the game. I'm not saying that Harper's better than Fox or anything, but just that switching their positions might allow each to play to their strengths more. Starting Manu used to be a "break glass in case of emergency" move for Pop in the past. You wonder if Mitch is considering using that as a change-up in the playoffs if things get dire. A Harper-Castle-Vassell-Champ-Wemby lineup features 4 guys 6'5-6'8 who can switch across positions and no negative defenders, 2 excellent shooters, and 2 decent-to-very good spot-up shooters. This lineup has not seen many minutes at all this season, but might be something worth looking into:

View attachment 1498

Nice Analytics!