Since raw numbers are a hindrance to understanding the evolution of cap sheets, I thought it'd be helpful to provide a simplified outlook into the Spurs financial future in terms of percentages of the cap. Given we're most interested in exploring the viability of keeping the core long term if things go well, I projected rookie extensions at reasonable values assuming optimistic scenarios (Wemby 30% as he's probably DPOY, Harper and Castle at 25%, Carter Bryant at 15% as a Toumani Camara level 3&D). Anyways, without further ado here is a general overview of the Spurs financial outlook:
| Player / Year | 1 (‘25-’26) | 2 (‘26-’27) | 3 (‘27-’28) | 4 (‘28-’29) | 5 (‘29-’30) |
|---|
Wemby | 8.6 % | 10.2 % | 30.0 % | 30.0 % | 30.0 % |
Fox | 24.0 % | 30.0 % | 30.9 % | 31.6 % | 32.1 % |
Castle | 6.2 % | 6.0 % | 7.3 % | 25.0 % | 25.0 % |
Harper | 8.0 % | 7.8 % | 7.5 % | 9.0 % | 25.0 % |
Bryant | 3.2 % | 3.1 % | 3.0 % | 4.2 % | 15.0 % |
Vassell | 17.0 % | 15.0 % | 13.0 % | 13.0 % | --- |
Kornet | 7.1 % | 6.3 % | 5.7 % | 5.1 % | --- |
Champagnie | 1.9 % | 1.8 % | --- | --- | --- |
Keldon | 11.3 % | 10.3 % | --- | --- | --- |
Sochan | 6.2 % | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Barnes | 12.3 % | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Olynyk | 8.7 % | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Waters | 1.5 % | --- | --- | --- | --- |
McLaughlin | 1.5 % | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Biyombo | 1.5 % | --- | --- | --- | --- |
min. Roster fill | --- | 7.4 % | 10.4 % | 10.4 % | 13.4 % |
TOTAL | 119.0 % | 97.9 % | 107.8 % | 128.3 % | 140.5 % |
For reference, as a percentage of the cap:
- luxury tax threshold: 121.5%
- 1st apron: 126.7%
- 2nd apron: 134.4%
- 1 year vet min for roster filling: 1.5%
Bare in mind these are broad strokes, but the inevitable conclusion is that (unless they make some moves earlier)
Spurs are running into trouble in years 4 and 5. That is what leads me to believe
Fox is unlikely to be a Spur by then if Harper and Castle live up to expectations, that 32% of the cap he'd be making would be better allocated into a few higher level role players, rather than relying on bottom of the barrel vet mins to fill out the roster.