San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder - a team comparison

[drpill]

To be the best, you've got to beat the best... Given that the Spurs and the defending NBA champions are the only two undefeated teams remaining in the west, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at the stat sheet and see what it might reveal about how the two teams compare otherwise. I'm not an advanced stats guy so this is a pretty basic approach -- I absolutely encourage any of the statheads here to run with this and do a better analysis, I'd be curious to see what else we can learn. And yes, this is early and a small sample size, perhaps it doesn't mean all that much. Both teams have also been missing key players so things will be in flux. But I still think it's interesting and maybe this is a thread that could be updated throughout the season to see where we stack up against those guys.

What do we notice here? Interestingly, the two teams seem quite similar statistically. Both have averaged 121 points through four games (the 127 number for OKC in the bottom table is incorrect). San Antonio's defensive rating is substantially better, but they haven't played anyone as good as Houston or Indiana, so it's hard to draw solid conclusions after only four games. In terms of counting stats, points, rebounds and assists are all eerily close. OKC has the edge in steals but the Spurs are killing them in blocks (duh). Neither team is scorching from the 3 point line but surprisingly the Spurs are doing better and OKC looks like they're really struggling thus far. You have to expect the Thunder's numbers to improve there. Spurs have the edge in FG% but are destroyed at the free throw line. That is a substantial difference that could easily decide the outcome in a game or series between two closely matched teams. San Antonio is, interestingly, taking four more FTA per game (31.5 vs 27), so the end result of FTs made ends up being pretty close.

Individually, both teams have an MVP caliber player dominating the stat sheet -- both SGA and Wemby lead their team in four categories. How the hell does Holmgren not have more blocks than SGA though?

So, what do you think? Can we hang with them? Can we beat them? Obviously individual matchups are their own matter. Maybe folks have some thoughts there.

 

[Correct Crusader]

Indiana is good? lol, NOP are better than they are.

 

[bozhemoi]

Both teams have been missing important guards.

 

[bozhemoi]

OKC depends on two things, seemingly paradoxical. Getting SGA his 20 free throws a night with soft-ass easy whistles, and fouling the ever-living shit out of the opposition (lead by Dort) forcing the refs to swallow their whistles. If you can blunt those two things you have a chance.

 

[drpill]

Indiana is good? lol, NOP are better than they are.

Haha, fair point, I hadn't even bothered to get current on the state of the Pacers.

 

[Correct Crusader]

OKC depends on two things, seemingly paradoxical. Getting SGA his 20 free throws a night with soft-ass easy whistles, and fouling the ever-living shit out of the opposition (lead by Dort) forcing the refs to swallow their whistles. If you can blunt those two things you have a chance.

accurate asf lmao

 

[gilmor2002]

Indiana is good? lol, NOP are better than they are.

this year shd be Knicks or 76ers

 

[drpill]

So further to this, advanced stats (outside of turnovers) really favor the Spurs. The basic stats above didn't take into account minutes played, but OKC's scoring average is inflated a bit because of this. Adjusted, the Spurs are scoring better. Adjusted defensive rating is actually identical. Pace is identical (and near the bottom of the league). Spurs are shooting, rebounding and passing better by these numbers. In terms of turnover ratio, OKC is top 2 and Spurs are 4th worst in the league. Not sure what PIE is but it sounds delicious and Spurs are easily #1 there.

Again, it's far too early to draw serious conclusions but I'd say through four games the two teams have a lot in common. If our issues with turnovers and free throws can be solved (I don't want to point fingers but a certain sophomore is probably responsible for much of this), we could really have something here.

 

[Neuromancer]

I know you mentioned both teams missing key players and while we are missing out all star starting PG, OKC has been missing J-Dub who is a top 15 player in the NBA. So while I appreciate the work put into the thread I feel like making any meaningful comparison between the two teams is impossible right now

 

[drpill]

I know you mentioned both teams missing key players and while we are missing out all star starting PG, OKC has been missing J-Dub who is a top 15 player in the NBA. So while I appreciate the work put into the thread I feel like making any meaningful comparison between the two teams is impossible right now

Definitely true, there's a lot left to sort out once the rosters are at full strength. Fox and Jdub will both have a significant impact on their respective teams when they return. To me they are comparable talents, more or less, but they affect the game in different ways. I'd guess Fox should help the Spurs with turnovers and scoring efficiency.

Just trying to get a conversation started here but I will probably come back to this as we get more data throughout the season.

 

[KobesAchilles]

I said from the get go that we have the talent on the top to compete with OKC. It was the role players that I was worried about.

But now I think that we are pretty good when it comes to role players. The problem is that I don’t think we match up particularly well with them.

Dort will smother Devin or Castle
Williams is a bad match up for our defense:
Nobody has a chance at guarding SGA
And Hartenstein and Chet (in theory) match up well defensively for Wemby.

I think our best bet would to be like Indiana did and go small against them with Fox, Castle, Harper, Vassell, and then Wemby

 

[ambchang]

I said from the get go that we have the talent on the top to compete with OKC. It was the role players that I was worried about.

But now I think that we are pretty good when it comes to role players. The problem is that I don’t think we match up particularly well with them.

Dort will smother Devin or Castle
Williams is a bad match up for our defense:
Nobody has a chance at guarding SGA
And Hartenstein and Chet (in theory) match up well defensively for Wemby.

I think our best bet would to be like Indiana did and go small against them with Fox, Castle, Harper, Vassell, and then Wemby

Why can't you admit Sochan actually did a semi decent job on Shai? It's almost hilarious at this point how your hatred for Sochan would just lead to these takes that are biased to the extreme.

I don't believe Sochan will be good enough to stop Shai single handedly, and last year there was a bit of a fluke, and was really only successful in 1 out of 2 games while the other was just slightly below average outing for Shai. He did give up the fewest points in isos last year, with 0.57 per iso, which is even more impressive when you consider how terrible the Spurs defensive scheme was last year.

The same applies for Vassell, you don't like a player, it's fine, but when he performs (or performed), it won't kill you to admit he can do some good once in a while. It's not like an NBA can't do a single thing right every game.

 

[drpill]

I agree that Jeremy has done a good job on SGA in the past. The problem with using Sochan as a defender is that he needs to be providing something meaningful on offense in order for his minutes to be a net positive. It remains to be seen if he can really do that but I am holding out hope for now.

 

[Shmurs]

Someone posted all of Shai’s possessions against Jeremy last year on r/nbaspurs

I think he guarded him like 11 times and Shai scored twice, I think.

Jeremy impacted about 3-4 shots, total and Shai generally got to whatever spot he was going for. There was nothing remarkable or effective about the D. Shai worked Jeremy over the same way he works literally everyone over.

 

[KobesAchilles]

Why can't you admit Sochan actually did a semi decent job on Shai? It's almost hilarious at this point how your hatred for Sochan would just lead to these takes that are biased to the extreme.

I don't believe Sochan will be good enough to stop Shai single handedly, and last year there was a bit of a fluke, and was really only successful in 1 out of 2 games while the other was just slightly below average outing for Shai. He did give up the fewest points in isos last year, with 0.57 per iso, which is even more impressive when you consider how terrible the Spurs defensive scheme was last year.

The same applies for Vassell, you don't like a player, it's fine, but when he performs (or performed), it won't kill you to admit he can do some good once in a while. It's not like an NBA can't do a single thing right every game.

Crazy how you ended up agreeing with me in the end. In a 7 game series I don’t expect Sochan to lock down or even slow down SGA. And neither do you. It’s nice that SGA had one bad game against us last year. But that has nothing to do with the playoffs.

And when have I hated on Vassell this year? I’m glad he’s doing well. But I think Dort would do a great job guarding either him or Castle. A crazy take I’m sure.

 

[BatManu20]

I think OKC is going to repeat this year pretty easily tbh. I have them beating the Knicks in 5 in the Finals. Spurs are much improved obviously, but I don't think we can compete with a healthy OKC team in a 7-game series. We're not there yet. They're just too deep and too good defensively (they're also allowed to foul way more than any other team in the league) and SGA is going to shoot 13+ FT's a game when push comes to shove. They also have shooters all over the floor and on the bench so their spacing is always ridiculous, which allows SGA, J-Dub and even Chet to do their thing. They're currently 4-0 (about to be 5-0 tonight after they beat the shitty Kings) and they're missing 2 of their best players in J-Dub and Caruso. They're simply the best and deepest team in the NBA right now.

 

[ambchang]

Crazy how you ended up agreeing with me in the end. In a 7 game series I don’t expect Sochan to lock down or even slow down SGA. And neither do you. It’s nice that SGA had one bad game against us last year. But that has nothing to do with the playoffs.

And when have I hated on Vassell this year? I’m glad he’s doing well. But I think Dort would do a great job guarding either him or Castle. A crazy take I’m sure.

I think Sochan could slow down Shai to a degree. Players like that you don't expect to really stop, but if a defender can allow the Spurs to not warp their entire defence to that one single player, then it is a success.

Like nephew on Lebron in the 14 Finals, Lebron still put up 28.2/7.8/4 on 57% FG and 52% 3PG%, but he "only" went to the line 29 times in 5 games (vs. 7.6 FTA/game in the regular season, 11 vs. the cats, 10.8 vs. the nets and 5.6 vs. the Pacers), but the Spurs were able to stay with the rest of the team and allowed their matchups to work in their favour.

Or how Kobe defended Shaq in 04 Finals, Shaq still put up 26.6/10.8/1.6 on 63% FG%, but he only took 84 shot attemps the entire series, that's less than Rip Hamilton did for Detroit, and the Lakers entire offence was designed around having two guys shoot.

Sochan can be that defender who can disrupt an offensive player enough as to not have the rest of the team change too much to accommodate. Now to @drpill 's point of whether Sochan can bring the offence? I doubt it too, but I believe the Spurs can have an offence where Sochan won't be too much of a disruption just based off of last year's numbers. Now with Harper and Fox in the equation, I believe the offence will flow even more smoothly despite the lack of outside shooting, but we will see.

 

[ambchang]

Someone posted all of Shai’s possessions against Jeremy last year on r/nbaspurs

I think he guarded him like 11 times and Shai scored twice, I think.

Jeremy impacted about 3-4 shots, total and Shai generally got to whatever spot he was going for. There was nothing remarkable or effective about the D. Shai worked Jeremy over the same way he works literally everyone over.

Please post.

 

[KobesAchilles]

I think Sochan could slow down Shai to a degree. Players like that you don't expect to really stop, but if a defender can allow the Spurs to not warp their entire defence to that one single player, then it is a success.

Like nephew on Lebron in the 14 Finals, Lebron still put up 28.2/7.8/4 on 57% FG and 52% 3PG%, but he "only" went to the line 29 times in 5 games (vs. 7.6 FTA/game in the regular season, 11 vs. the cats, 10.8 vs. the nets and 5.6 vs. the Pacers), but the Spurs were able to stay with the rest of the team and allowed their matchups to work in their favour.

Or how Kobe defended Shaq in 04 Finals, Shaq still put up 26.6/10.8/1.6 on 63% FG%, but he only took 84 shot attemps the entire series, that's less than Rip Hamilton did for Detroit, and the Lakers entire offence was designed around having two guys shoot.

Sochan can be that defender who can disrupt an offensive player enough as to not have the rest of the team change too much to accommodate. Now to @drpill 's point of whether Sochan can bring the offence? I doubt it too, but I believe the Spurs can have an offence where Sochan won't be too much of a disruption just based off of last year's numbers. Now with Harper and Fox in the equation, I believe the offence will flow even more smoothly despite the lack of outside shooting, but we will see.

Kobe guarded Shaq in a different way. By shooting the ball over three people and refusing to pass to him.

 

[Raven_]

I think it is obvious the league belongs to these two teams for at least the next 5 years.. It is honestly not even close.

 

[sfernald]

Having watched just about every Okc game last year and most Spurs games until Wby got hurt I def have a strong take on this.

I’m Looking at them not in terms of how they play against each other but rather comparing the Spurs team and roster to Okc’s.

I’ve thought for a few years that Fox was pretty much a poor man’s Shai. Good for 25 pts instead of 30 and not really a pass first guard.

Wemby is a ++ version of Holmgren, and potentially an all time great so to me Spurs have a big advantage in the center position. But of course Holmgren and iHeart are one of the best around too.

I think to really compete Castle will have to become some form of Dort. Best perimeter defender on team. Always does what team needs to win. Clutch. Must become a better shooter. Has one skill Dort doesn’t which is the ability to get fouled at an incredible rate which is an incredibly promising super power.

Oh shit kid just made a mess will add to this later.z

 

[dn0774]

Disclaimer than I am not a Sochan believer overall, but I think Sochan would be nice to have some stints on Shai. With players like Shai you need multiple guys who can give him different looks/physicality. Don't let him get comfortable with the same match up repeatedly. Either don't foul at all or foul the shit out of him often (they can't call them all, word to okc), nothing in between. Let Wemby be the deterrent for Shai going to the rim.

Castle against OKC scares me, they are the best in the league at exploiting weakness and Castle has plenty right now. In a 7 game series that could get ugly. Last year Castle had 1 great game against them and 2 terrible ones. OKC has a stable of elite point of attack defenders and if you show any weakness in your handle they will make you virtually unplayable.

I hope our solid start to this season is real (like 50+ wins would be amazing) as that would heighten the intensity of our games against OKC (and all good teams tbh). That would make for some awesome (and sometimes painful) learning experiences.

 

[RC_Drunkford]

the main reason why I think we match up well with OKC, is that they like to score from midrange and in the paint. Our team shuts down the paint and forces teams to shoot 3s and the Thunder are not a good 3-point shooting team. Now I do think we would struggle with the football level physicality that's allowed in the playoffs, especially for OKC.

 

[eric365]

I See this year spurs as rhe 2023-24 OKC

End of the rebuild
The main star getting to MVP level (shai wemby)
A rookie really good right away (chet harper)
A sophomore improving (jdubb Castle)

OKC made a big jump that year and experienced the playoff

 

[spursparker9]

I See this year spurs as rhe 2023-24 OKC

End of the rebuild
The main star getting to MVP level (shai wemby)
A rookie really good right away (chet harper)
A sophomore improving (jdubb Castle)

OKC made a big jump that year and experienced the playoff

Yea and Sam Presti fixed their worst weakness in the off season by signing Hartenstein and trading Giddey for Caruso.