Draft March Madness Draft Watch: Spurs Prospect Tracker

spurraider21 said:
is there any reason to believe TaT is any more accurate than any other mock draft/board?
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It's a fun platform but far worse than others in terms of predictive ability. ESPN is usually the most accurate (or was when Givony was there), though it's far too early to draw conclusions.
 
Bruno said:
From what I've read, the 2027 draft is said to be weak and not deep. I can see a lot of underclassmen going back to college for NIL money and with the hope to be drafted earlier next year. In the 2025 draft, the whole second round was full off seniors and international players. This year it might be even more.

Reed should rise in mock drafts just because of that. After Lendeborg and Stirtz, he might be the next senior drafted. He should be in the same tier as Joshua Jefferson and Zuby Ejiofor.
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He's not a senior, but a guy like Krivas may decide it's time to leave. I'm not sure he's ever getting out of the 20+ draft range and there's no reason to stay at Arizona after a deep run this year.
 
100%Duncan said:
- Tim Duncan was a physical beast in college and his first few years in the league esp before the knee issues came.

- Shooting the 3 =/= shooting over people. I meant his height and his pop on his jumpshots and shots near the rim. It’s like the height where he releases the ball at seems “blockable”.

- Ofc he’s not a guard, but he’s a 4 in college and has a problem beating college guys off the dribble. How much more NBA guys? The big 3s and small 4s are not going to be bullied by his style of play.

Anyway, im not a Cam Boozer hater nor do I feel any strongly about this draft class due to where we are picking, i just dont see him being a clearcut #1/#2 as some of you think he is.
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I always consider a young Tim Duncan very athletic. If anyone hasn't seen him, watch some highlight videos of his first few years. I'm not sure if I am remembering right, but I still vaguely remember and ally-oop dunk that he caught with his left and finished it with his left. I don't even recall seeing someone like Amare make a play that athletic. Amare was an awesome leaper, but I don't think he was more athletic than a young TD.

I also wonder, something I've thought about, but do you guys think he would have kept more of his athleticism if he stayed lighter/had less weight after his knee injury? I sort of remember that he started putting on more weight to deal with Shaq (can't remember exactly what year/s he started doing it, but I am sure he put on a bit more weight on purpose because of having to go against Shaq. I wonder if he would have stayed at a lighter weight, could that have taken some pressure of his knees and ankles/feet causing a little less wear and tear, or would it not have made much of a difference? I think the year of the Pistons finals series he was carrying more weight than what was optimal for him.
 
Ariel said:
It's a fun platform but far worse than others in terms of predictive ability. ESPN is usually the most accurate (or was when Givony was there), though it's far too early to draw conclusions.
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Yes. Espn and Sam Vecenie's board. I split the difference between them for most slots and won @scott's game on ST on draft predictions last year :)

Vecenie's predictions on the players turn out to the most accurate, IMO (even with some significant misses like Scoot Henderson over Brandon Miller). And Givony/ Woo come really close.
 
Ice009 said:
I always consider a young Tim Duncan very athletic. If anyone hasn't seen him, watch some highlight videos of his first few years. I'm not sure if I am remembering right, but I still vaguely remember and ally-oop dunk that he caught with his left and finished it with his left. I don't even recall seeing someone like Amare make a play that athletic. Amare was an awesome leaper, but I don't think he was more athletic than a young TD.

I also wonder, something I've thought about, but do you guys think he would have kept more of his athleticism if he stayed lighter/had less weight after his knee injury? I sort of remember that he started putting on more weight to deal with Shaq (can't remember exactly what year/s he started doing it, but I am sure he put on a bit more weight on purpose because of having to go against Shaq. I wonder if he would have stayed at a lighter weight, could that have taken some pressure of his knees and ankles/feet causing a little less wear and tear, or would it not have made much of a difference? I think the year of the Pistons finals series he was carrying more weight than what was optimal for him.
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I think DRob told TD don’t jump any more than you have to, in light of his injuries. TD had greater wingspan than DR so he didn’t have to always jump to contest or ever block shots.

Then supposedly that knee injury ended up bone on bone per Pop, so that probably factored in also: hey in light of this jump around even less…

One thing that was notable to me about TD was how efficient he moved around the basket. Never a wasted movement or effort, very graceful.

TD has a mid career slump with injuries such as a long bout with plantar facitis. During those times it seemed like he was pretty washed and he rarely dunked.

Then he got healthy again in his mid 30s and the rest was history. Culminating with that vicious one handed dunk over Bosch in 2014.
 
Knoxxx said:
I think DRob told TD don’t jump any more than you have to, in light of his injuries. TD had greater wingspan than DR so he didn’t have to always jump to contest or ever block shots.
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This is some advice that I think our young guys would be wise to heed. You see guys like Fox getting criticized for not using his athleticism all the time, but it is actually quite smart from a longevity and load management POV. Reminds me of the old F1 adage: the objective is to finish first while going as slow as possible.

Wemby in particular wears himself out and takes a lot of tumbles… we love him for his effort (amongst other things) but we also need him to find ways to look after himself too.
 
scott said:
This is some advice that I think our young guys would be wise to heed. You see guys like Fox getting criticized for not using his athleticism all the time, but it is actually quite smart from a longevity and load management POV. Reminds me of the old F1 adage: the objective is to finish first while going as slow as possible.

Wemby in particular wears himself out and takes a lot of tumbles… we love him for his effort (amongst other things) but we also need him to find ways to look after himself too.
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Wemby addressed this before I think, his reasoning being that falling (or knowing how to fall) is actually helpful in avoiding injuries as a controlled fall is often better than a wild landing. Lots of ACL / meniscus tears happen that way (think of the recent Vince Williams ACL tear when Tari Eason destabilized him). There's probably a happy medium though, and I do agree it's something Spurs should address to maximize longevity.
 
bozhemoi said:
He's not a senior, but a guy like Krivas may decide it's time to leave. I'm not sure he's ever getting out of the 20+ draft range and there's no reason to stay at Arizona after a deep run this year.
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NIL changes all of that. He’d probably get more money next year than his draft slot in the 20s.
 
I don't doubt NIL has an effect, but we are starting to overrate that effect. it will not change the whole draft landscape.
the 2nd round pick exception (SRPE) from 2023 kind of counters the NIL effect anyway.
and colleges will trend to trow the big NIL deals to the younger superstars, rather than give it to borderline NBA prospects.
a #20 pick scores about 8 million in guaranteed money and 18 million overall. and you are in the NBA with a realistic chance to score a nine figure fortune.
and a #30 pick still get's you close to 6 million GTD.
and with the SRPE players no longer will completely focus on a 1st round promise. #31 pick Fleming got more guaranteed money than #30 pick Niederhäuser. rumors were out Fleming did have significant NIL offers.
last year all players (I didn't check every contract) down to the #40 pick got significant GTD money, like, for example, Lanier, who got the meanwhile standard 4Y/8.7 million and 3.4 million GTD. Lanier turned down NIL offers of about 1.5 million.
so I think that's how it will turn out. NBA kind of expanded the 1st round with the SRPE and their willingness to pay more guaranteed money for 2nd round players.

I don't try to claim that another Lendeborg type decission won't happen again (he withdrew for 3 million $ NIL, after not getting a 1st round promise), but I think it will be the exception to the rule. IMO more players will choose the Danny Wolf path rather than go back to college like Lendeborg.
 
Question: Yaxel Lendeborg and Patrick Williams are both the same age and play the same position. Which of the two would you say is a better basketball player today?
 
Uriel said:
Question: Yaxel Lendeborg and Patrick Williams are both the same age and play the same position. Which of the two would you say is a better basketball player today?
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Yaxel easily.People say yaxel a child,But hes passionate and gives alot of effort.Probably bigger and has more bbiq
 
onechance87 said:
Yaxel easily.People say yaxel a child,But hes passionate and gives alot of effort.Probably bigger and has more bbiq
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His maturity issues have been popping up for a while now tbh. Concerns about his practice habits and only getting up for big games. Every time I see him speak, he seems like Sochan 2.0 tbh. You can can kinda hand wave that way if he was 19-20 but he's old as shit.

He'll be long gone by the Spurs pick so I don't think we'll have to worry about picking him anyways but I doubt the Spurs are taking him with all the character concerns tbh.
 
Mugen said:
His maturity issues have been popping up for a while now tbh. Concerns about his practice habits and only getting up for big games. Every time I see him speak, he seems like Sochan 2.0 tbh. You can can kinda hand wave that way if he was 19-20 but he's old as shit.

He'll be long gone by the Spurs pick so I don't think we'll have to worry about picking him anyways but I doubt the Spurs are taking him with all the character concerns tbh.
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don't you think that the teams that own lottery picks will also dig deep into his personalty issues? I think many will pass. well, maybe Grizzlies think they need a refill on bad habits.
that said, I wouldn't be surprised, if he falls down the board, eben if he won the NCAA title. and even if he still was available at #20, I do hope the Spurs pass, no matter how usefull a player with his profile would be.
but people here like to point out how well this group works together. there is the bad apple theory and you don't want to bring in a potential bad apple, if you don't need to, right?
yeah, some like the idea of the reformed guy, but what are the chances and how many layers of reform are we talking about?
this guy went back to school for 3 million and his coaches complained about his bad practise habits. they say, he finally got it right, but it seems as if this young man needs to get it right every other week.
you want a pro with a pro attitude and not a kid you need to push every day to do his homework.
and btw. we are talking about a potential role player, who's projected role is glue guy for a core of hyper talented star players. you look for Shane Battier. not for Kyle Kuzma. and for sure not for the pubertal version of Kuzma.
 
Vienna said:
don't you think that the teams that own lottery picks will also dig deep into his personalty issues? I think many will pass. well, maybe Grizzlies think they need a refill on bad habits.
that said, I wouldn't be surprised, if he falls down the board, eben if he won the NCAA title. and even if he still was available at #20, I do hope the Spurs pass, no matter how usefull a player with his profile would be.
but people here like to point out how well this group works together. there is the bad apple theory and you don't want to bring in a potential bad apple, if you don't need to, right?
yeah, some like the idea of the reformed guy, but what are the chances and how many layers of reform are we talking about?
this guy went back to school for 3 million and his coaches complained about his bad practise habits. they say, he finally got it right, but it seems as if this young man needs to get it right every other week.
you want a pro with a pro attitude and not a kid you need to push every day to do his homework.
and btw. we are talking about a potential role player, who's projected role is glue guy for a core of hyper talented star players. you look for Shane Battier. not for Kyle Kuzma. and for sure not for the pubertal version of Kuzma.
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I don't think his character concerns are at the level of worrying about whether he'll show up and play. He's done well with Dusty May and looks like a competitive guy. His maturity is more that he's kind of a dick and immature.

I don't think he's going top ten in this draft as much because of his age but someone will jump on him thereafter.
 
Vienna said:
I don't doubt NIL has an effect, but we are starting to overrate that effect. it will not change the whole draft landscape.
the 2nd round pick exception (SRPE) from 2023 kind of counters the NIL effect anyway.
and colleges will trend to trow the big NIL deals to the younger superstars, rather than give it to borderline NBA prospects.
a #20 pick scores about 8 million in guaranteed money and 18 million overall. and you are in the NBA with a realistic chance to score a nine figure fortune.
and a #30 pick still get's you close to 6 million GTD.
and with the SRPE players no longer will completely focus on a 1st round promise. #31 pick Fleming got more guaranteed money than #30 pick Niederhäuser. rumors were out Fleming did have significant NIL offers.
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NIL money has had a big effect on the 2025 NBA draft.

Number of college early entrants drafted in the second round:
2022 : 18
2023 : 17
2024 : 14
2025 : 4

Question is how will it be in 2026 ? same as 2025? better? worse?

I know very little about CBB financial landscape, so I don't have an answer at that question. However, it seems there are more and more money in CBB. Few days ago, French center Narcisse Ngoy signed with Auburn for 2026/2027 and will received $1.9M in NIL money.

Spurs have right now picks #35, #43 and #44. NIL will likely hurt the value of these picks a lot.
 
Bruno said:
NIL money has had a big effect on the 2025 NBA draft.

Number of college early entrants drafted in the second round:
2022 : 18
2023 : 17
2024 : 14
2025 : 4

Question is how will it be in 2026 ? same as 2025? better? worse?

I know very little about CBB financial landscape, so I don't have an answer at that question. However, it seems there are more and more money in CBB. Few days ago, French center Narcisse Ngoy signed with Auburn for 2026/2027 and will received $1.9M in NIL money.

Spurs have right now picks #35, #43 and #44. NIL will likely hurt the value of these picks a lot.
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I think we have a different approach to the first topic. As I said, I don't doubt the NIL effect. My points were made about the question, if a potential #20 pick might chose NIL money and go back to school, rather than stay in the draft. I think this won't happen, NIL money isn't powerful enough in that region and the big NIL contracts, like 7+ million for Dybantsa, will only go to those projected superstars, who are sure fire one and done, because those players guarantee big media interest. My other point was about those players, who are borderline 1st round and can't get a 1st round promise. Since SRPE teams can hand out much better contracts to 2nd round picks, so it's not that much of a risk to fall out of 1st round. A player at 31 can get more money than 30. I think this goes down till about 40. But from there on the NIL effect will be massive and that's the region where the statistic get's twisted. Some years ago you had like 50+ early entries who went undrafted. Didn't matter to them, they didn't leave college money on the table. Now they get some NIL money, likely more than a contract in Europe or where ever, so they go back, or don't even enter the draft.
sidenote about the EE number: the covid rule inflated the statistic in some of the last years. Because of the allowed 5th covid year, all 4th year seniors, who declared for the draft, were counted as early entry.
 
Ariel said:
Wemby addressed this before I think, his reasoning being that falling (or knowing how to fall) is actually helpful in avoiding injuries as a controlled fall is often better than a wild landing. Lots of ACL / meniscus tears happen that way (think of the recent Vince Williams ACL tear when Tari Eason destabilized him). There's probably a happy medium though, and I do agree it's something Spurs should address to maximize longevity.
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Jared Weiss from The Athletic did a good article on Wembanyama's stretching regimen a few weeks back that was enlightening about his approach. Apparently, he's recognized the need for years and has assertively searched for solutions.

"https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6956677/2026/01/09/victor-wembanyama-spurs-high-kick/"

"As time went on, Ziani could perceive that all nine of Wembanyama’s senses — yes, nine — were operating at full capacity. The world knows the common senses of sight, smell, touch, hearing and taste. Ziani focuses on the other four senses: Vestibular balance, Proprioception (positional awareness), Thermoception (temperature changes) and Nociception (pain).

These are the senses that allow Wembanyama to roll his ankles on crossovers without a hitch. It’s what enables him to crash to the floor over and over and pop right back up. It’s why Wembanyama often grabs at his ankle as if something has gone wrong, then runs back into the play like nothing ever happened."

"He is a response to the fear of the AI singularity and a great reminder that humans are evolving in ways beyond technology. As newer technology often aims to box us deeper into an algorithm, the potential next face of the NBA is defined by the breadth and depth of his curiosity. He isn’t just driven by expanding his mind. He is implementing it into his physical existence. In the process, he is willing to struggle to learn how to achieve even more."
 
If there was any debate about who the better center is between Mara and Krivas… that debate should end now, tbh.
 
Weird that Yaxel's teammate had to push him back as he leaped up, thinking he might go after the Arizona player.
 
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