CALL YOUR SHOT: The 2025-26 BaselineBums Bold Predictions Thread

scott

Wears Lululemon (lol tbh)
Staff member
Joined
Aug 29, 2025
Messages
895
Reaction score
1,000
It's New Seasons' Eve and I can't remember a time I've been more excited, and I've been religiously following this team since the 1988-89 season (I was but a precious-eyed 9 year old at the time, but my Petur Guomundsson takes were scorching).

I wanted to start this thread to memorialize our smartest (and dumbest) predictions for the upcoming season. We'll fire up the self back-patting/self ass-kicking machine at the end of the year for those who were closest (or furthest) to the mark.

You can predict anything you want, this is completely free form!

Here are mine:

Spurs finish with 50+ wins and make the playoffs outright as a Top 6 seed. This one is pretty self-explanatory. I'm with Vecenie, who has recently seen the light, and others. Despite a few glaring warts, this team is talented and ready to take a leap, led by Victor who is shaping into a completely unstoppable form.

Speaking of Victor... Wemby will average 27pts, 12.5reb, 4ast, 3.7blks and flirt with a 50/40/90 season, making All NBA First Team, winning DPOY, finishing Top 5 in MVP voting, and recording 2 quad-doubles and 2 5x5 games. Yeah... you could say I'm very high on Wemby this year. I do think his blocks will fall a little bit to "only" 3.7 as Korndog helps take some of the defensive load off of Vic, and I think I might be a little conservative on his scoring, but the Spurs suddenly have some mouths to feed and I see Vic being a relatively unselfish superstar, wanting to get teammates involved in the fun.

De'Aaron Fox will have a "down" year in scoring average, but will be more effective and more impactful than ever, averaging 23ppg, 3.5rpg, 7.9apg (career high), 2.2 stl (another career high) and shoot 37.5% from 3 (another career high) while earning votes (but falling just short) of All NBA 3rd Team. The haters will point to Fox's down year in scoring (by his standards) in an effort to cause some sort of unnecessary division (Manu v Parker thread), but the truth is Fox will be more efficient, more impactful and happier than ever. I do still see a 40-bomb or two out of Fox this year, though.

Stephon Castle will back up his ROTY campaign with a solid sophomore effort. 16ppg, 4pg, 5apg, 34% from 3 and a defensive intensity more akin to what we saw at the start of last season. I think we're going to see Steph dialed in, with confidence in the 3pt shot. The efficiency at times might still be a little rough, especially in the first half of the season, but I anticipate Castle adding some variety to his hesi game that will pay huge dividends, and he'll continue to get to the FT line at a high rate.

One of the Power of Friendship are traded. I anticipate the Spurs running into a little bit of a crunch for minutes and needing to jettison one of the Friendship Crew to clean up the rotations. I don't think this will be a blockbuster move, maybe one that returns some minor draft capital and a useful veteran who can play a reserve role when needed. Something along the lines of Devin and JMac to CHI for Kevin Huerter, Jevon Carter and a future lotto protected FRP. This trade example isn't a prediction... just an example.

Dylan Harper won't be serious ROTY contention, but he will make All Rookie 1st Team.

Luke Kornet becomes a fan favorite and stars in his very own HEB commercial, while proving to be the best bench C in the league.

Kelly Olynyk has a bigger impact than 90% of Spurs fans are expecting.

Lindy Waters III plays a huge role in more than a couple of significant games for us.

Carter Bryant spends most of Pre-ASB in Austin, but makes a real contribution Post-ASB and logs some meaningful playoff minutes.

Mitch Johnson earns serious COTY buzz, finishing Top 5 in voting.
 
I'll say, Victor remains relatively healthy.

Fox's health remains hit and miss.

Spurs have between 48-52 wins and make the second round of the playoffs
 
Victor will record at least two quadruple doubles this season
The other day I saw a screenshot, apparently one of those gambling sites had +1700 odds that Wemby will have at least 6 triple-doubles this season.


I share a lot of Scott's takes
Wemby will surely finish top5 in MVP voting if healthy.

There's kind of nothing to add other than having the hottest take of them all and saying Jeremy will develop a functional jumpshot. :st-lol:
 
The other day I saw a screenshot, apparently one of those gambling sites had +1700 odds that Wemby will have at least 6 triple-doubles this season.
imo that might even be a better deal than the +2500 for Wemby to lead the league in blocks as a rookie I had seen.
 
The other day I saw a screenshot, apparently one of those gambling sites had +1700 odds that Wemby will have at least 6 triple-doubles this season.


I share a lot of Scott's takes
Wemby will surely finish top5 in MVP voting if healthy.

There's kind of nothing to add other than having the hottest take of them all and saying Jeremy will develop a functional jumpshot. :st-lol:
6 doesn't sound unreasonable. Feels like he had a bunch of games he was close last season and with improved teammates and a focus on getting them involved i can see him nabbing more than that tbh
 
Spurs will win 48 games, making 7th seed in the west.

The team will be top 7 in the league in 3PM and %. (I know).

The team will be top 10 in the league in ORTG and DRTG.

Vassell will be traded.

Harper will finish the season without a single #1 RoY vote, but will be on multiple #2 and #3 votes, finishing 3rd.

Wemby finally (after 3 years!!!!) wins the first of 6 DPoYs.
 
Wemby will have 2 triple doubles with at least 10 blocks. Spurs will have a top 7 defensive rating in the league. Spurs are a top 6 seed.
 
My bold prediction is that the spurs will win over 50 games and secure a top 3 seed.

Spurs will make it to the conference finals and lose in 6.
 
Spurs will win 48 games, making 7th seed in the west.

The team will be top 10 in the league in ORTG and DRTG.
That's a tough combo to pull off. Top 10 in both ORTG and DRTG likely means 10th place at worst in Net RTG. Getting only a 7 seed out of that would need some bad luck in close games.
 
That's a tough combo to pull off. Top 10 in both ORTG and DRTG likely means 10th place at worst in Net RTG. Getting only a 7 seed out of that would need some bad luck in close games.
:st-lol:
Didn’t think this one through. Also 6 of the top 9 teams will be in the west then
🤷‍♂️

EDIT: just checked. The grizzlies were top 10 in both last season and finished 8th with 48 wins. So it is possible.
:LOL:
 
Last edited:
  1. I'm gonna call a 50-32 season and either the 4 or 5 seed, which probably lands a first round matchup against a bear like either Houston or Minnesota.
  2. Spurs win that series.
  3. Fox/Castle/Harper get some real burn together in a 3PG lineup trying to figure out OKC in the second round.
  4. OKC wins en route to the repeat
  5. Victor gets top 3 in MVP voting
 
My outlandish, bordering on insane hot take: Dylan Harper will get some 6MOY votes.
Middle of the road take: There will be more teams going toward a 2-big lineup. I wish Houston didn't have Steven Adams.
 
Last year on ST I claimed the ATL FRP would be "pure gold" and that Devin would surprise people with impressive play. Feeling pretty off target with those although in a sense Carter Bryant could turn out to be pretty valuable, I guess. A little wary of making any claims this season lol. But I am very high on the team this season and feel great things are coming. I'll make a safe call: Spurs will get into the NBA Cup Tournament.
 
My outlandish, bordering on insane hot take: Dylan Harper will get some 6MOY votes.
Middle of the road take: There will be more teams going toward a 2-big lineup. I wish Houston didn't have Steven Adams.
No lie, this was originally in my predictions but I backed off because I thought it was a little too optimistic. I'm with you!
 
:st-lol:
Didn’t think this one through. Also 6 of the top 9 teams will be in the west then
🤷‍♂️

EDIT: just checked. The grizzlies were top 10 in both last season and finished 8th with 48 wins. So it is possible.
:LOL:
The Grizz had the 6th best Net RTG: 6th on offense, 10th on defense. Their expected record based on Net RTG was 52-30, tied for 4th in the West.

Normally that means their record in close games was poor, but they were 11-12 in games decided by 5 or fewer points. That's not enough to skew a record by 4 games, 15-8 in such games would have been unusually good given their Net RTG.

I think the explanation here is that the Grizz only lost one game by more than 24 points (143-106 at NY) but had 6 wins of over 30 points, including a 51-point destruction of the Warriors on December 19. Make that 51-point win only 30 instead and the Grizz lose almost a full quarter point off their season-long scoring margin.

I want to say that at some point I saw a version of Net RTG that capped all margins of victory at 20 or 25 to mitigate the effects of enormous blowouts like that, but I forgot where.
 
Keldon Johnson wins 6MOTY and is a big part in Spurs getting a Top 3 seed 😀

&

Luke Kornet punches Zach Collins directly in the face mid-game unprovoked and immortalizes himself as a top 5 Spur of all time.
 
Going with 49 wins and rank 6 in the west (wcould be close to the very final game).

...all asuming Wemby might sit/miss a few games but eventually play more than 65 games.
 
I agree with Scott's predictions... but I'll add one:

One of (Vassell / Keldon / Sochan) will actually improve and fill in their missing skill gap (Vassell with defense, Sochan with shooting, or Keldon with decision-making) and actually be a positive impact for the team.

To me, that's the only roadblock to reaching 50+ wins
 
My reasonable prediction is that the Spurs get 47 wins.

My bold prediction is that, due to a glitch in the DPOY voting form, all voters manage to list Wemby as their 1st, 2nd, AND 3rd place choices.
 
I'm double-dipping here.
Another BOLD Prediction is that the season will have its ups and downs and the Spurs will end up in the playoffs as the 8th seed and will knock off OKC in Round 1.
 
50+ wins and Wemby MVP( if no stpid minutes restrictions sht)
 
- VW will play 73 games. We'll be a top-10 defensive team when he's on-court, bottom-10 when he's off
- Champ will shoot over 40% from 3, Castle will struggle to stay above 30%
- Double big lineup will be quite effective, Mitch will struggle to find many minutes for it. This forum will bitch heavily
- Vasselline will be in the starting 5 until his perennial injury, team will excel while he's out, he'll come off the bench the rest of the season once he's healthy
- Spurs will make no major trades before the off-season
- ATL pick swap won't convey
- Raymond will get suspended for dirty play
 
Back
Top