Analysis Brian Windhorst: “Spurs are a playoff contender”

[Thoodee]

Might end up being a blessing in disguise since it'll probably force them to hand the PG spot to Amen Thompson. Durant gives them enough shooting to maybe pull it off this time.

Man, the basketball gods seemed to have shined on Reed Sheppard. Jalen Green out and now FVV. I'm not as high as some here on the rockets, but this may also force Sheppard in the the light and may also be another blessing.

 

[elpimpo4cc]

Spurs' goal should be to win 42. Let the playoff chips fall where they may

 

[TDomination]

rockets just took a hit.

wow Fred Vanvleet torn ACL.
Even before pre-season, thats tough.

 

[TDomination]

Spurs' goal should be to win 42. Let the playoff chips fall where they may

Yes a winning season would be nice (sounds very odd saying it after growing up with the winningest franchise in all of sports)

 

[jhfenton]

Spurs' goal should be to win 42. Let the playoff chips fall where they may

To me 42 wins would be a C season. Not a complete failure, but mediocre and disappointing. This team is due for more than marginal improvement.

I'd say 45-46 wins for a B season and 50 wins for an A season, assuming decent health, of course.

 

[Lefty20]

Yeah, a 42 win season is the low end of the expectation for me.

I wouldn't exactly be disappointed by it, but it'd definitely feel a bit underwhelming.

 

[The Truth #6]

I have no idea if the team is going to get in the playoffs or not because I think there's a lot of wild card factors that others have alluded to, namely the head coach and how serious and cutthroat he wants to be about winning. I expect they'll be enough players on the team to play well to come close to the playoffs.

But will Mitch have a good season? It's a big ask for a new coach who has been a player's coach. He's going to have to bench people. If he makes training camp a blood bath, so to speak, and let's the best rotations play, that would be a great start. But that means agents and players will be upset, so that's not great for morale, either.

Because of this lack of clarity, I have reservations.

I think a smart approach is a fast paced pressing basketball style that tires people out and necessitates a deep rotation, which also plays to our strengths and makes our rotation conindrum less problematic, ideally. With Sweeney as the new defensive coach, it not difficult to assume that already is the plan.

But we'll see.

 

[Arguendo]

Better how? We are a team of misfit pieces.

Well we have a consensus Top 10 player who is also the unanimous best defender in the league entering his 3rd season, another consensus Top 30 guy who chose to come here and led the league in steals ago 2 yrs ago, a 6'6" 20y/o reigning ROY who is already elite at getting to the line w/All-D upside, a 6'5" rook who would've gone #1 in several of the past 10 drafts. This has been a team of misfit pieces since Kawhi forced the trade. This is easily the best team have had in yrs.

We drafted/traded for 3 point guards. All of them want the ball in their hands. How’s that suppose to fit?

So Castle was drafted as a PG now? Think back, this is his NBA draft profile-A sturdy 6-foot-6 guard/wing, Castle can use his physicality and change of pace to create offensive advantages and finish at the rim. He’s shown a nice passing ability, and he’s a tough defender. --People hoped he was a PG because the fucking Sochan experiment and Wemby needed help.
Castle was drafted as easily the best player available as a versatile perimeter defender, with tons of 2-way upside, and hopefully the ability to maybe, one day be able to maybe play lead guard and maybe learn to shoot, but much more likely add secondary ballhandler who gets to the line and guard 1-3. He came first and he is big enough and has the D potential to play the wing.

Then Fox requested a trade here, and we got him for under-market value. Less than what Orl paid for Bane. Fox is a scoring guard who is an average creator for a starting PG. We need scoring and he's a great scorer and he's a bona fide secondary star. Should the Spurs not have made that trade because Castle?
Harper looks to be the truest PG on the team, he's really big, super talented, and has a great pedigree. He fell into our lap and he has HOF level talent with size. He's easily big enough to play the 2 (wingspan is certainly big enough to play wing when he physically develops) and he was the no doubt #2 talent. Should the Spurs have taken a lesser talent for fit? Should they have traded out and for who? Harper can be the prefect LT fit next to Wemby, to me you don't pass on that because Fox, especially since he's 19 until March.

The fit with those 3 is fine this season and probably next because Castle's still 20 and Harper will be 19 for most of the year. Fox shot 37% from 3 on 7.8/attempts in 23'-24'. Castle is a secondary ballhandler, Harper is a teenager. Believe it or not, sometimes young guys develop a shot, especially next to a generational player with crazy gravity. There's plenty of ball to go around for those 3 in the short term. The fit isn't perfect, but FFS this is a great "problem" to have. If Fox shoots 37% and Wemby is the Top 10 guy everyone expects taking tons of 3s, there's plenty of space and ball for Castle and Harper to excel driving to the hoop.
Castle and Harper are years away from their primes, they have plenty of stuff to work on while Fox leads the show for at least a couple of yrs.

How's it supposed to fit? Well a 6'3 elite scorer whose the fastest player in the league (kinda sounds like Tony), paired with a 6'5" natural PG with obvious AS level talent and a 6'10.5" wingspan (kinda sounds like a longer Manu), and a 6'6" 6'9" wingspan d-first elite rim attacker who choose to take a lesser role in college to win and did whatever was asked really doesn't seem like a problem. Perfect doesn't exist. Players grow together and fits developed or you trade for better fits, but only after you actually evaluate WTF you have and how they fit in practice, not just in theory.
Let's see how they fit before concluding they can't possibly fit, especially when paired with a 7'4 absolute unicorn who could easily go down as the best d-fender ever who everyone expects to out perform his 24/11/4/4/1 sophomore season (kinda sounds like a longer Timmy with 3-pt range).

 

[Arguendo]

Seems like a hero baller who won't accept a role player role. He will be explaining himself a lot when he is taking shots he clearly shouldn't be.

This will be interesting. He's definitely been hero baller, but until Fox got here I think that's what they wanted of him, well no one outside of AAU wants hero ball but someone had to be the #2 scorer and they let him develop really bad habits.
Surely Vassell acknowledges that his role is now clearly behind Fox and that the reigning ROY and #2 pick need the ball, right?

I'm not sure, never seen anything but the dribble dribble dribble from Vassell. If he could just accept that he needs to be a 3&D, spot up shooter playing with the starters he could be a huge asset for us or as a trade piece.

 

[scott]

Fantastic points @Arguendo - and I'd also add that even if Castle is a PG, both he and Harper have enough size and length to make a 3-guard lineup work with Wemby and the right PF (I'd argue that Kelly O might be our best fit for that right now). OKC has really shown how lineups like this can work. I'm excited to see ours in action.

 

[Arguendo]

Fantastic points @Arguendo - and I'd also add that even if Castle is a PG, both he and Harper have enough size and length to make a 3-guard lineup work with Wemby and the right PF (I'd argue that Kelly O might be our best fit for that right now). OKC has really shown how lineups like this can work. I'm excited to see ours in action.

Agree, I think Fox/Harper/Castle could be very good together if just one of them shoots 36+%, Vic get to 36-37% which I expect, and a PF who has some rebounding can shoot 38+%

I'm really hopeful that's Oly, just comes down to how many minutes/games he can handle at 34, but I think NOLA and TOR had no a reason to play him vs he couldn't handle it.
Just posted this in the trade thread but think its good people be aware of what we may have in Oly:

Olynyk is a good rebounder Top 40 overall reb%, Top 25 in O% which we desperately need next to Wemby.
If Olynyk can play 15-20mpg over 65ish games a lot of our hypothetical issues problems are solved. He's shot 39.6% on 2.5/attempts over the past 3 yrs, taking 40% of his shots from deep and is above 50% from the corners in that time. Epitome of hustle guy. I think him and Kornet really help change the culture.

Barnes rebounds at the same rate as Fox and Castle, Oly has shot marginally better than Barnes over the past 3 years with Barnes taking a 50% of his shots from 3 vs 40% for Oly.
But Oly is much much much better rebounder AND passer than Barnes, and I think better on D.
If Oly can handle it, he's the easier fit as a starter and Barnes is a better sniper off the bench, imo.

 

[dn0774]

Fantastic points @Arguendo - and I'd also add that even if Castle is a PG, both he and Harper have enough size and length to make a 3-guard lineup work with Wemby and the right PF (I'd argue that Kelly O might be our best fit for that right now). OKC has really shown how lineups like this can work. I'm excited to see ours in action.

Hopefully Mitch is up to the task when it comes to offensive creativity and not investing valuable minutes/development time into the wrong guys. I am still surprised at the coaching search (or lack thereof) the Spurs conducted.

 

[scott]

Agree, I think Fox/Harper/Castle could be very good together if just one of them shoots 36+%, Vic get to 36-37% which I expect, and a PF who has some rebounding can shoot 38+%

I'm really hopeful that's Oly, just comes down to how many minutes/games he can handle at 34, but I think NOLA and TOR had no a reason to play him vs he couldn't handle it.
Just posted this in the trade thread but think its good people be aware of what we may have in Oly:

Olynyk is a good rebounder Top 40 overall reb%, Top 25 in O% which we desperately need next to Wemby.
If Olynyk can play 15-20mpg over 65ish games a lot of our hypothetical issues problems are solved. He's shot 39.6% on 2.5/attempts over the past 3 yrs, taking 40% of his shots from deep and is above 50% from the corners in that time. Epitome of hustle guy. I think him and Kornet really help change the culture.

Barnes rebounds at the same rate as Fox and Castle, Oly has shot marginally better than Barnes over the past 3 years with Barnes taking a 50% of his shots from 3 vs 40% for Oly.
But Oly is much much much better rebounder AND passer than Barnes, and I think better on D.
If Oly can handle it, he's the easier fit as a starter and Barnes is a better sniper off the bench, imo.

Yep! Been saying for awhile now that I think people are underrating Oly as an addition to the team. He isn't going to light the world on fire, but I think he'll surprise.

 

[KobesAchilles]

Well we have a consensus Top 10 player who is also the unanimous best defender in the league entering his 3rd season, another consensus Top 30 guy who chose to come here and led the league in steals ago 2 yrs ago, a 6'6" 20y/o reigning ROY who is already elite at getting to the line w/All-D upside, a 6'5" rook who would've gone #1 in several of the past 10 drafts. This has been a team of misfit pieces since Kawhi forced the trade. This is easily the best team have had in yrs.

So Castle was drafted as a PG now? Think back, this is his NBA draft profile-A sturdy 6-foot-6 guard/wing, Castle can use his physicality and change of pace to create offensive advantages and finish at the rim. He’s shown a nice passing ability, and he’s a tough defender. --People hoped he was a PG because the fucking Sochan experiment and Wemby needed help.
Castle was drafted as easily the best player available as a versatile perimeter defender, with tons of 2-way upside, and hopefully the ability to maybe, one day be able to maybe play lead guard and maybe learn to shoot, but much more likely add secondary ballhandler who gets to the line and guard 1-3. He came first and he is big enough and has the D potential to play the wing.

Then Fox requested a trade here, and we got him for under-market value. Less than what Orl paid for Bane. Fox is a scoring guard who is an average creator for a starting PG. We need scoring and he's a great scorer and he's a bona fide secondary star. Should the Spurs not have made that trade because Castle?
Harper looks to be the truest PG on the team, he's really big, super talented, and has a great pedigree. He fell into our lap and he has HOF level talent with size. He's easily big enough to play the 2 (wingspan is certainly big enough to play wing when he physically develops) and he was the no doubt #2 talent. Should the Spurs have taken a lesser talent for fit? Should they have traded out and for who? Harper can be the prefect LT fit next to Wemby, to me you don't pass on that because Fox, especially since he's 19 until March.

The fit with those 3 is fine this season and probably next because Castle's still 20 and Harper will be 19 for most of the year. Fox shot 37% from 3 on 7.8/attempts in 23'-24'. Castle is a secondary ballhandler, Harper is a teenager. Believe it or not, sometimes young guys develop a shot, especially next to a generational player with crazy gravity. There's plenty of ball to go around for those 3 in the short term. The fit isn't perfect, but FFS this is a great "problem" to have. If Fox shoots 37% and Wemby is the Top 10 guy everyone expects taking tons of 3s, there's plenty of space and ball for Castle and Harper to excel driving to the hoop.
Castle and Harper are years away from their primes, they have plenty of stuff to work on while Fox leads the show for at least a couple of yrs.

How's it supposed to fit? Well a 6'3 elite scorer whose the fastest player in the league (kinda sounds like Tony), paired with a 6'5" natural PG with obvious AS level talent and a 6'10.5" wingspan (kinda sounds like a longer Manu), and a 6'6" 6'9" wingspan d-first elite rim attacker who choose to take a lesser role in college to win and did whatever was asked really doesn't seem like a problem. Perfect doesn't exist. Players grow together and fits developed or you trade for better fits, but only after you actually evaluate WTF you have and how they fit in practice, not just in theory.
Let's see how they fit before concluding they can't possibly fit, especially when paired with a 7'4 absolute unicorn who could easily go down as the best d-fender ever who everyone expects to out perform his 24/11/4/4/1 sophomore season (kinda sounds like a longer Timmy with 3-pt range).

I don’t need to see it to make my prediction about what is to come. I also am not going to wait to give my opinion bc then I’d have to wait until January to have any opinion at all.

Imo Fox, Castle, and Harper are all the same position. They might be playing different positions in name but not in style. Fox isn’t a good 3 point shooter. Neither is Castle and neither is Harper. Can they improve? Maybe. I don’t know that they really will improve from a guard position. In many ways, it’s easier to improve as a big man shooter than a PG shooter. And even if Castle isn’t a “PG” to you he is most effective as the one with the ball in his hands who is making the decisions. Same with Harper. It’s not like Manu where he could affect a play without the ball in his hands. And he wouldn’t just wait in the corner when he didn’t have the ball. Manu didn’t play like Bowen when he didn’t have the ball (just sit in the corner type of offense) he was cutting and setting screens and just constant motion. It’s why you could close games with Manu and Tony. They were similar in some aspects but different in many more.

Castle, Fox, and Harper are all down hill players who can’t shoot threes at a high percentage clip. That’s not really fit. And I’m not faulting the Spurs for it too much. Although personally I wouldn’t have drafted Harper at all. I would’ve chosen Edgecomb. But it’s not like the Spurs traded for Fox thinking they were going to get Harper. But they did get Harper and now we have a future fit problem. Maybe not so much this year bc Castle is a second year player and Harper is a rookie. But it’s coming. And that’s not a bad thing. In fact the best possible outcome is for us to have that problem or else it means that Harper or Castle are busts.

But as of today, Spurs who shoot under league average from 3 are 4 of our starters if we start Sochan. If we start Barnes instead of Sochan then it becomes more passable on offense but defensively we take a hit since the only good defender is Wemby. So we either have a shooting/spacing problem or we have a sieve on defense problem. Either way it’s not good. My hope and really the only way we make the playoffs is if one of two things happen. Sochan miraculously learned how to shoot at high volume or Carter Bryant takes a giant leap as a rookie. To me, Carter Bryant (not Harper) is the most important rookie we have on our team

 

[Shmurs]

fox’s shooting is good enough. Him being 38% vs 34% or whatever…he’s still getting guarded on the perimeter and the rest of the half court spacing doesn’t suffer and we’re just quibbling over a point or two per game.

Castle’s not going to be guarded to start the year, so he just needs to crawl out from the hole he’s in and draw coverage. Don’t need him to be 40%. Need him to draw a defender. He will if he starts the season decent.

Harper who knows, but it’s hard to picture him with a defender sagging.

The three of them are a castle jump shot away from being a killer back court.

I don’t love the timeline and that we still don’t have wings and all that, but the theory of these guards is a decent one.

 

[ace3g]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1970872583122989428

 

[Itzsoweezee]

I don’t need to see it to make my prediction about what is to come. I also am not going to wait to give my opinion bc then I’d have to wait until January to have any opinion at all.

Imo Fox, Castle, and Harper are all the same position. They might be playing different positions in name but not in style. Fox isn’t a good 3 point shooter. Neither is Castle and neither is Harper. Can they improve? Maybe. I don’t know that they really will improve from a guard position. In many ways, it’s easier to improve as a big man shooter than a PG shooter. And even if Castle isn’t a “PG” to you he is most effective as the one with the ball in his hands who is making the decisions. Same with Harper. It’s not like Manu where he could affect a play without the ball in his hands. And he wouldn’t just wait in the corner when he didn’t have the ball. Manu didn’t play like Bowen when he didn’t have the ball (just sit in the corner type of offense) he was cutting and setting screens and just constant motion. It’s why you could close games with Manu and Tony. They were similar in some aspects but different in many more.

Castle, Fox, and Harper are all down hill players who can’t shoot threes at a high percentage clip. That’s not really fit. And I’m not faulting the Spurs for it too much. Although personally I wouldn’t have drafted Harper at all. I would’ve chosen Edgecomb. But it’s not like the Spurs traded for Fox thinking they were going to get Harper. But they did get Harper and now we have a future fit problem. Maybe not so much this year bc Castle is a second year player and Harper is a rookie. But it’s coming. And that’s not a bad thing. In fact the best possible outcome is for us to have that problem or else it means that Harper or Castle are busts.

But as of today, Spurs who shoot under league average from 3 are 4 of our starters if we start Sochan. If we start Barnes instead of Sochan then it becomes more passable on offense but defensively we take a hit since the only good defender is Wemby. So we either have a shooting/spacing problem or we have a sieve on defense problem. Either way it’s not good. My hope and really the only way we make the playoffs is if one of two things happen. Sochan miraculously learned how to shoot at high volume or Carter Bryant takes a giant leap as a rookie. To me, Carter Bryant (not Harper) is the most important rookie we have on our team

I guess we’ll know pretty quickly if Mitch is a serious coach, because no competent NBA coach would start Jeremy given the current roster and Jeremy’s skills/shortcomings. Sochan has to come off the bench, with either Barnes or KO starting next to Wemby.

 

[spurs10]

Lot of talk about Vassell rising to the occasion. I think he'll fare much better not being out 2nd option. Hopefully Fox will help him succeed.

 

[TDomination]

Lot of talk about Vassell rising to the occasion. I think he'll fare much better not being out 2nd option. Hopefully Fox will help him succeed.

It will go a long way for Vassell if he simply stops shooting those wild contested 3 pt shots. His shot selection makes me smh

 

[Dex]

It will go a long way for Vassell if he simply stops shooting those wild contested 3 pt shots. His shot selection makes me smh

Or worse...dribbling into traffic just to shoot a contested mid-range jumper. Basically the worst shot in basketball.

There are some players that can get away with that (Durant, DeMar)....Vassell isn't one of them.

 

[bozhemoi]

The roster is unbalanced and needs work but if Vic is healthy all season this is a playoff team. I think they're going to give a lot of teams trouble.

 

[Sugus]

The roster is unbalanced and needs work but if Vic is healthy all season this is a playoff team. I think they're going to give a lot of teams trouble.

This is about half of what's got me so interested for next season - the roster is obviously imperfect, but there's just too many questions about fit, chemistry, playing style, and synergy at the moment to make any major moves on the roster.

We should have a significantly clearer picture of what needs to be "worked out" by the season's half. I see many players on tenuous ground, from Vassell, to Keldon, to even Sochan if he doesn't show significant progress.

The team is clearly not in a tanking mindset anymore, and it remains to be seen which players can adjust to that and play winning basketball. We should start a Trade Predictions thread, tbh

 

[Dex]

This is about half of what's got me so interested for next season - the roster is obviously imperfect, but there's just too many questions about fit, chemistry, playing style, and synergy at the moment to make any major moves on the roster.

We should have a significantly clearer picture of what needs to be "worked out" by the season's half. I see many players on tenuous ground, from Vassell, to Keldon, to even Sochan if he doesn't show significant progress.

The team is clearly not in a tanking mindset anymore, and it remains to be seen which players can adjust to that and play winning basketball. We should start a Trade Predictions thread, tbh

A lot of this is going to fall on Mitch and the coaching staff. Assuming good health, it's up to them whether this is going to be another 30-win season or a 45-win season.

Is he going to wax nostalgic about the old crew (Vassell, Keldon, Sochan, etc.) and insist keeping them in the rotation because "they've been around"? Just a reminder...these are the same players who led us to three tanking seasons.

Or will he really embrace the new blood (Harper, Carter, Kornet, Olynyk, Barnes) and build a functional team without giving out participation trophies or worrying about the old crew getting their feelings hurt because they lost playing time?

Pop is gone. Time for a new era, and that means time for a new approach to building the team.

Also you signature

 

[couchman]

I think we'll be a play-in team this year if things go well.
Obviously the most important thing is that Wemby has to stay healthy.

Coaching will be a big factor. Is Mitch free to make his own decisions?
Can Mitch define roles on the team so that players can succeed?
A lot of our problems the last few years are due to role players playing beyond their abilities.
Can we put our more limited players in limited roles so that they succeed?
Can our stars create opportunities for our role players?

Wemby and Fox have to play like All-stars.
I think we can expect that from Wemby, especially because of his defensive impact.
Fox is the question mark.
He's had some great seasons and he's also had some very inefficient seasons.
Which one will we get?
I'm hoping for a reasonable 3pt %, at least 7 assists pg, and a few clutch game winners.

 

[Shmurs]

A lot of this is going to fall on Mitch and the coaching staff. Assuming good health, it's up to them whether this is going to be another 30-win season or a 45-win season.

Is he going to wax nostalgic about the old crew (Vassell, Keldon, Sochan, etc.) and insist keeping them in the rotation because "they've been around"? Just a reminder...these are the same players who led us to three tanking seasons.

Or will he really embrace the new blood (Harper, Carter, Kornet, Olynyk, Barnes) and build a functional team without giving out participation trophies or worrying about the old crew getting their feelings hurt because they lost playing time?

Pop is gone. Time for a new era, and that means time for a new approach to building the team.

Also you signature

Pop’s still very much around. Mitch is the HC because he’s going to be a surrogate for el jeffe. They would have brought in Malone or Jenkins if they were really moving on. Instead Pop still gets to make all of the decisions - including tagging Jeremy as “untouchable” this summer and giving Devin more iso ball opportunities this season.

And those moments where you need to have a real-time conversation after a game about a pressing issue? We’re going to have a 76 year old who just had a major stroke leading those midnight calls. It’s a total joke how the he FO is structured.