Analysis Spurs draft assets, cap situation and future projections

LeBowen

LeBowen

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Current cap situation:
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Future cap projections:
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First round picks:
'26 - ATL swap
'27 - ATL unprotected
'28 - BOS swap, top1 protected
'29 - own
'30 - DAL/MIN swap, most favorable of the three
'31 - SAC swap
'32 - own

Second round picks:
'26 - IND/MIA swap, can swap our own for worse pick between those two
UTA, top55 protected
NOP/POR, better of the two
'27 - OKC/HOU/IND/MIA swap, can swap our own for best of those picks
'28 - MIN unprotected
NOP unprotected
own
'29 - NOP unprotected
LAC unprotected
own
'30 - CLE unprotected
SAC unprotected
own
'31 - SAC unprotected
own
'32 - own


I'm not the biggest expert on cap situation, some of the resident experts should follow up with more detailed explanations.
In short, we won't be in salary trouble until 2029 and that will happen only if both Castle and Harper both get rookie max extensions.
Even then, we'd be in luxury for only one season because Fox would be on an expiring deal in 29-30.
As long as we don't amass some more contracts that are bigger than what we have on the roster now, we're good to go.
Obviously Keldon/Barnes/Olynyk contracts are great filler for any trade, even Devin isn't that expensive and can be easily moved.

As for draft picks, we're still in every draft and can acquire some good players with those.
Second rounders will get the ownership a lot of money via cash considerations.
 
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100 mill for Fox, Devin and Keldon is nasty business. Imagine r/nbaspurs adding another 25 mill for Jeremy. And then imagine a life without Wemby and THAT as your leadership crew.

Mamu and Yabu would have added some nice bargain deals on a team where almost everyone is over paid.
 
If Sochan doesn't sign the extension the Spurs will have almost $ 40 million in expiring contracts at the trade deadline with Sochan, Barnes and Olynyk
 
I'm pretty sure we'll make some type of trade at the deadline, once the coaches figure out the forward spots and what's missing there.
 
Markanen (I’ll learn to spell it if he comes here) is plug and play and would move this team into the top 6 tomorrow. Even if they ship out all of the friendship crew and replace them with Jones Garcia comps.

Champ at the 3 until we figure out the 3 guard lineup and Fox, Wemby and Lauri dismantling defenses. And hey maybe that’s why you keep guys like Mamu who are actually proven NBA players who are also cost controlled, so you can use them to round out the lineup when shipping guys out. But who would flex their biceps and scream up at the sky in that case, I suppose. Thank god we still have Keldon.
 
Shmurs said:
100 mill for Fox, Devin and Keldon is nasty business. Imagine r/nbaspurs adding another 25 mill for Jeremy. And then imagine a life without Wemby and THAT as your leadership crew.

Mamu and Yabu would have added some nice bargain deals on a team where almost everyone is over paid.
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Devin and Keldon are overpaid, yes - and who else, tbh?

HB has a normal contract for his production, as does Fox (assuming the issues with his hand are in the past, of course). Wemby is extremely underpaid, of course, and Kornett's and Champagnie's are both great contracts considering their value. All other players are on rookie deals. Is Kelly Olynyk the sticking point for you?

Thankfully no need to imagine the "friendship crew" as leadership anymore now that the team has brought multiple veterans onboard. This seems like a rant that's coming a year too late...

E: btw I'd love Markkannen on the team, but it's a pipe dream until proven otherwise. The Jazz appear entirely unwilling to trade him, and all too happy to sit on his ass until a king's ransom is thrown their way, which I hope the Spurs never fall for.
 
Sugus said:
Devin and Keldon are overpaid, yes - and who else, tbh?

HB has a normal contract for his production, as does Fox (assuming the issues with his hand are in the past, of course). Wemby is extremely underpaid, of course, and Kornett's and Champagnie's are both great contracts considering their value. All other players are on rookie deals. Is Kelly Olynyk the sticking point for you?

Thankfully no need to imagine the "friendship crew" as leadership anymore now that the team has brought multiple veterans onboard. This seems like a rant that's coming a year too late...

E: btw I'd love Markkannen on the team, but it's a pipe dream until proven otherwise. The Jazz appear entirely unwilling to trade him, and all too happy to sit on his ass until a king's ransom is thrown their way, which I hope the Spurs never fall for.
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Spurstalk wasn’t accepting new users so my rant from a year ago was all saved up :)

Devin and Keldon overpaid - of course. Barnes is overpaid for a guy who is a 7/8 on a good team. Fox is overpaid but I get that others would have given him the deal. Kornet is certainly overpaid, it’s just lower stakes. Collins was obviously overpaid when he was here.

I guess my point is that Champ is the only player who wright has managed to get a bargain performance out of. And I question his ability to play the role of a shrewd GM. He carves out small goals that don’t move the needle on the team but give him cover - and he pays whatever the price is for those moves. And then we wake up a couple years from now and realize there isn’t a single player out punching their contract, which is a guaranteed loser.

I also know that a lot of these aren’t his contracts but they still aren’t good contracts
 
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Here is the table I made that assumes nothing other than 30% max for Wemby and 25% max for Castle and Harper (which I don't think is realistic, as I doubt they are both able to do enough to each earn a max extension if Fox performs up to expectation).

As we all have already figured out, moving Vassell (and not for another big salary) would be quite helpful. Next season as it stands were going to have to fill 5 roster spots with only $36MM of space under the 1st apron. Shouldn't be too difficult honestly since only Barnes and Lunch Lady will be what we expect to be legit rotation players rolling off. A reasonable Sochan extension would add some space under the 1st apron next year as well.

It's the super of 2028 where things are going to get dicey if Castle does indeed get a max extension and Vassell is still on the books, and that's before considering if Sochan gets extended. At this point, no matter what you think of Jeremy, it's hard to see how it's a good idea to give him an extension above MLE money. It's going to be rough if we go into the summer of 2028 $38MM over the cap with only 7 players.

wNvcSK5.png
 
And for whatever reason, the image I uploaded (an Imagur link) works in my post preview but not once it's posted...

Here's the image address:
https://imgur.com/wNvcSK5
 
ird80 said:
Keldon isn’t overpaid
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with the level of play we've seen from him for the last couple of years, yes, he's overpaid. if he continues to play as effictively as he has during this preseason, you may end up correct. next offseason, he's also going to represent an expiring contract
 
spurraider21 said:
with the level of play we've seen from him for the last couple of years, yes, he's overpaid. if he continues to play as effictively as he has during this preseason, you may end up correct. next offseason, he's also going to represent an expiring contract
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He’s been asked to do too much. Playing off the ball as an energy scorer, his salary will be right on the nose.
 
Exstatic said:
He’s been asked to do too much. Playing off the ball as an energy scorer, his salary will be right on the nose.
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I don’t see why smaller and older Jabari smith should get paid more than Jabari smith
 
spurraider21 said:
I don’t see why smaller and older Jabari smith should get paid more than Jabari smith
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Because Jabari is still on his rookie contract?

I know this will blow your mind,but a lot of smaller and older players will make more than Wemby this year.
 
Exstatic said:
Because Jabari is still on his rookie contract?

I know this will blow your mind,but a lot of smaller and older players will make more than Wemby this year.
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Jabari smith just signed an extension this summer for less than keegan

-Insert snark-
 
scott said:
Here is the table I made that assumes nothing other than 30% max for Wemby and 25% max for Castle and Harper (which I don't think is realistic, as I doubt they are both able to do enough to each earn a max extension if Fox performs up to expectation).

As we all have already figured out, moving Vassell (and not for another big salary) would be quite helpful. Next season as it stands were going to have to fill 5 roster spots with only $36MM of space under the 1st apron. Shouldn't be too difficult honestly since only Barnes and Lunch Lady will be what we expect to be legit rotation players rolling off. A reasonable Sochan extension would add some space under the 1st apron next year as well.

It's the super of 2028 where things are going to get dicey if Castle does indeed get a max extension and Vassell is still on the books, and that's before considering if Sochan gets extended. At this point, no matter what you think of Jeremy, it's hard to see how it's a good idea to give him an extension above MLE money. It's going to be rough if we go into the summer of 2028 $38MM over the cap with only 7 players.

wNvcSK5.png
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This is why Fox will likely be traded in the Summer of 2028. Soon enough to get us out of cap jail, not so soon that Klutch and Fox will be upset. Work with them on finding a soft landing spot.
 
Exstatic said:
This is why Fox will likely be traded in the Summer of 2028. Soon enough to get us out of cap jail, not so soon that Klutch and Fox will be upset. Work with them on finding a soft landing spot.
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It's too soon to make any predictions, especially since nothing is certain when it comes to Harper and Castle. I know they've looked great in preseason, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
If we win the championship by 2028 and Fox is a Parker-like figure, do we really want to trade him? Regardless of how the other two develop?
We could even pay the luxury tax for one season in 29-30 if both get rookie max extensions and still be fine a year later when Fox's contract runs out.
 
scott said:
And for whatever reason, the image I uploaded (an Imagur link) works in my post preview but not once it's posted...

Here's the image address:
https://imgur.com/wNvcSK5
Click to expand...

This is awesome. If nothing else, it shows the value of this window with Victor, Steph and Harper on rookie deals. The Spurs can afford to be patient and intentional with their roster-building.
 
Would the 4 pick and the 8 pick have been enough to move up for Risacher?
 
LeBowen said:
It's too soon to make any predictions, especially since nothing is certain when it comes to Harper and Castle. I know they've looked great in preseason, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
If we win the championship by 2028 and Fox is a Parker-like figure, do we really want to trade him? Regardless of how the other two develop?
We could even pay the luxury tax for one season in 29-30 if both get rookie max extensions and still be fine a year later when Fox's contract runs out.
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You absolutely trade him. He’ll be much older than the dynamic duo, and you don’t want to anchor you team to that.
 
I still can't believe the Spurs traded away the future for a shitty Minny FRP. DillingGOAT would've pushed the Spurs to a chip.
 
jeebus said:
I still can't believe the Spurs traded away the future for a shitty Minny FRP. DillingGOAT would've pushed the Spurs to a chip.
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Dilly wasn’t their pick, though. They picked him on behalf of Minnesota. Spurs had a secret 2nd option they haven’t shared iirc
 
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