Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade Watch

[CrustyCoastBendFan]

Sengun is a good player but he is very soft after what Draymond did to him in the playoffs. I put him on the King's Sabonis tier of greatness.

Yeah, so trade him so Giannis can show DRAYMUNDO what’s what and where it is for the next two years while Mean Ol’ Man Green might be in the playoffs. Who cares if Sengun is the offensive engine of the Rockets for the next decade or so. We ALL gotta be reactionary in our thinking.... WERE AMERICAN....LONG TERM THINKING is for the RAVENS and the CHINESE .....Plus TRADE MACHINE is addictive. Draft PICKS, CAP FLEXIBILITY... Whats THAT?

 

[Kick-Stand]

What about Joe Dumars?

He'd take Darko over them both

 

[Exstatic]

come on man. Sengun is a much better offensive engine than Sabonis it’s now even close. Sabonis can rebound better and that’s it, he’s an even worse defender than sengun and sengun isn’t even that bad on defense. He’s just not great.

Sabonis also shoots better. No slouch on distributing the ball, either.

 

[Exstatic]

Please clarify this take. When you say "Sabonis >> Sengun", are you referring to their body of work in their respective careers thus far? Or their current ability? Or their impact on their respective teams this season? I especially like the usage of ">>", as I would even consider "Sabonis = Sengun" to be a pretty hot take.

EDIT:
Just for the record, here is a summary of some of the evidence that argues against your point, but I'm curious to hear your side of this

source: CraftedNBA.com

Domantis has led the NBA in rebounding the last three seasons. A snapshot of a moment in time can be deceiving. He’s out rebounding him, both counting 12.3/9.1 and rate 20.6%/14.3% so I’m not sure of the validity of your shapes diagram,even for the 20ish game sample.

 

[ambchang]

Sabonis also shoots better. No slouch on distributing the ball, either.

Depends on what you mean by shoot better. Sabonis shoots a good number of shots from 3-10, while Sengun shoots quite a few from 10-16. By distance, so far this year (the numbers are always Sabonis then Sengun):
- Saboins and Sengun are basically the same from 0-3 feet (.672 vs, .667)
- Sengun better from 3-10 (.415 vs. .508)
- Sabonis better from 10-16 but on VERY low numbers (.692 vs. .442), career wise Sengun is better.
- 16-3P is inconsequential as both shoot very low numbers from there. 0% vs. .316 so Sengun is "better".
- 3P Sengun is better .2 vs. .286 while shooting slightly more frequently as well.

So once you go to TS%, Sengun is slightly better (.564 vs .582), but it could be a down year so far with Sabonis as he normally has a TS% of .615 while Sengun gets .571.

eFG% Sengun again is slightly better (.524 vs. .536). Again, could be. down year for Sabonis as his career is .580 while Sengun is .536.

Historically, yeah, Sabonis is better but this year, Sengun is better. Not to mention that Sengun is in year 5 while Sabonis is in year 10, so Sengun is likely going to improve while Sabonis is likely going the other way.

Passing-wise Sabonis is no slouch but Sengun is just better. 3.7 AST so far this year (career 4.9, high of 8.2)

	Sabonis YTD	Sabonis Career	Sabonis Career High	Sengun YTD	Sengun Career	Sengun Career High
Assists/GM	3.7	4.9	8.2	7.1	4.2	7.1
Assists/100P	5.3	7.7	11.2	9.8	7.1	9.8
Assist %	16.9	23.6	33.9	29.6	23.2	29.6

Keep in mind though Sabonis had a huge jump in assists numbers due to his role. He was decently good with the Pacers but not at Sengun's level overall. The Rockets is now centering their entire offence around Sengun with him being the hub, and they are doing quite well. The Rockets are 2nd in the NBA in ORtg while the Kings were 13th the year Saboins put him his career assists numbers (23-24).

 

[Exstatic]

Depends on what you mean by shoot better. Sabonis shoots a good number of shots from 3-10, while Sengun shoots quite a few from 10-16. By distance, so far this year (the numbers are always Sabonis then Sengun):
- Saboins and Sengun are basically the same from 0-3 feet (.672 vs, .667)
- Sengun better from 3-10 (.415 vs. .508)
- Sabonis better from 10-16 but on VERY low numbers (.692 vs. .442), career wise Sengun is better.
- 16-3P is inconsequential as both shoot very low numbers from there. 0% vs. .316 so Sengun is "better".
- 3P Sengun is better .2 vs. .286 while shooting slightly more frequently as well.

So once you go to TS%, Sengun is slightly better (.564 vs .582), but it could be a down year so far with Sabonis as he normally has a TS% of .615 while Sengun gets .571.

eFG% Sengun again is slightly better (.524 vs. .536). Again, could be. down year for Sabonis as his career is .580 while Sengun is .536.

Historically, yeah, Sabonis is better but this year, Sengun is better. Not to mention that Sengun is in year 5 while Sabonis is in year 10, so Sengun is likely going to improve while Sabonis is likely going the other way.

Passing-wise Sabonis is no slouch but Sengun is just better. 3.7 AST so far this year (career 4.9, high of 8.2)

	Sabonis YTD	Sabonis Career	Sabonis Career High	Sengun YTD	Sengun Career	Sengun Career High
Assists/GM	3.7	4.9	8.2	7.1	4.2	7.1
Assists/100P	5.3	7.7	11.2	9.8	7.1	9.8
Assist %	16.9	23.6	33.9	29.6	23.2	29.6

Keep in mind though Sabonis had a huge jump in assists numbers due to his role. He was decently good with the Pacers but not at Sengun's level overall. The Rockets is now centering their entire offence around Sengun with him being the hub, and they are doing quite well. The Rockets are 2nd in the NBA in ORtg while the Kings were 13th the year Saboins put him his career assists numbers (23-24).

So, you’re only going to count this year’s shooting numbers, because career 3 pointers , it’s.344 to .286. Sabo is a better shooter, overall, although down this year.

 

[mo7888]

So, you’re only going to count this year’s shooting numbers, because career 3 pointers , it’s.344 to .286. Sabo is a better shooter, overall, although down this year.

They are very similar players. Sengun gets deified here because we passed on him. I don't think it's any deeper than that.

 

[scott]

Some third-party views of Sengun v Sabonis:

Bleacher Report Top 100: Sabonis 28, Sengun 22
The Ringer Top 100: Sabonis 38, Sengun 14
ESPN Top 100: Sabonis 34, Sengun 25
CBS: Sabonis 42, Sengun 29

Some places have the closer than others, but no GM would take Sabonis over Sengun because Sabonis is 29 and Sengun is 23.

 

[dn0774]

It's an interesting comparison. My initial "no research" reaction is Sengun clears Sabonis as a basketball player right now and and significantly clears in terms of asset value going forward (younger, better already).

After diving in the stats and numbers posted here that conclusion seems a little unfair to Sabonis, I admit. Sabonis having been shopped around for multiple seasons with no takers stains my opinion of him. Anecdotally, he is a "Zollins" level rim protector, Sengun isn't great there either but he is better than Sabonis.

Rebounding does favor Sabonis clearly, but there are layers to that as well. Houston has a ton of great rebounders at every position and has been the best rebounding team overall for several years as a result. Is Sengun getting punished for being surrounded by awesome rebounders? David Robinson's rebounding metrics took a big hit in the Rodman seasons, does that mean he was actually a worse rebounder? I don't think so.

Also, I was of the opinion that Sengun gives Wemby all kinds of problems but after looking back at game logs that apparently isn't the case. He had the huge 45 pt game (against rookie Wemby) where he famously offensive fouled his way to his career high. But other than that, he had 1 other nice game (Oct '23) and a bunch of meh or bad games.

Ringer having Sengun at #14 is certainly interesting, I can't quite get there.

 

[scott]

It's an interesting comparison. My initial "no research" reaction is Sengun clears Sabonis as a basketball player right now and and significantly clears in terms of asset value going forward (younger, better already).

After diving in the stats and numbers posted here that conclusion seems a little unfair to Sabonis, I admit. Sabonis having been shopped around for multiple seasons with no takers stains my opinion of him. Anecdotally, he is a "Zollins" level rim protector, Sengun isn't great there either but he is better than Sabonis.

Rebounding does favor Sabonis clearly, but there are layers to that as well. Houston has a ton of great rebounders at every position and has been the best rebounding team overall for several years as a result. Is Sengun getting punished for being surrounded by awesome rebounders? David Robinson's rebounding metrics took a big hit in the Rodman seasons, does that mean he was actually a worse rebounder? I don't think so.

Also, I was of the opinion that Sengun gives Wemby all kinds of problems but after looking back at game logs that apparently isn't the case. He had the huge 45 pt game (against rookie Wemby) where he famously offensive fouled his way to his career high. But other than that, he had 1 other nice game (Oct '23) and a bunch of meh or bad games.

Ringer having Sengun at #14 is certainly interesting, I can't quite get there.

There is a good way to look at this though, by looking at Contested Reb %, Reb Chance %, Deferred Rebounds and Adjusted Reb % (which adds back deferred chances)

Sabonis - 17.5 reb/100, 20.6 REB%, 45.2 Contested Reb %, 53.6 Reb Chance %, 57.2 Adj Reb Chance %, 3.8 Avg Reb Dist
Sengun - 12.6 reb/100, 14.3 REB%, 42.8 Contested Reb %, 55.6 Reb Chance %, 60.7 Adj Reb Chance %, 4.8 Avg Reb Dist

It's easy to look at raw rebounds, and even Reb/36 or Reb/100 and REB% and conclude Sabonis is far and away the better rebounder... but digging deeper they are much closer than on first glance.

For reference, here is the definition of a Rebound Chance and a Deferred Rebound Chance:

Rebound Chance: A player has a rebound chance if they are the closest player to the ball at any point in time between when the ball has crossed below the rim to when it is fully rebounded
Deferred Rebound Chance: The number of times that a player has a rebound chance, but defers the rebound to a teammate

 

[wemvp]

Some third-party views of Sengun v Sabonis:

Bleacher Report Top 100: Sabonis 28, Sengun 22
The Ringer Top 100: Sabonis 38, Sengun 14
ESPN Top 100: Sabonis 34, Sengun 25
CBS: Sabonis 42, Sengun 29

Some places have the closer than others, but no GM would take Sabonis over Sengun because Sabonis is 29 and Sengun is 23.

Where are Wemby and Fox on those lists?

 

[scott]

Where are Wemby and Fox on those lists?

All the lists are public and easy to find

 

[PocketMonger]

Sengun is almost seven years younger, slightly better after making another jump this season while making 10M less per season.

They're tied at best as players but Sengun is easily the better asset. Not debatable.

 

[mo7888]

Sengun is almost seven years younger, slightly better after making another jump this season while making 10M less per season.

They're tied at best as players but Sengun is easily the better asset. Not debatable.

Fact check: true

 

[ambchang]

So, you’re only going to count this year’s shooting numbers, because career 3 pointers , it’s.344 to .286. Sabo is a better shooter, overall, although down this year.

Not necessarily. Both of their numbers are skewed when compared to each other. Reality is that Sengun is in year 5 at 23 years old, Sabonis Year 10 at 29 years old, so Sabonis is entering or already in his prime, while Sengun should be a few years away, but Sengun, other than rebounding, is already putting up similar or even better numbers than Sabonis did. Sengun has also been known not to be a 3pt shooter until this year, where he is shooting a career high in attempts (by quite a margin, 2.7/gm vs. a previous high of 1.8 and average of 1.3) and % (.385 vs. .333/.272). Word is that he has put in the time and effort to improve, and so far it seems about right. Sabonis didn't go over 35% until year 7 (first year in SAC, and not counting the one year he shot 9/17), and had a career high of 41.7% last year. This year his attempts and % dropped pretty drastically so I am not sure if he's in a funk or a change in role, but it would be safe to say that they are pretty much neck to neck, and my point is that it is not convincingly Sabonis being the better shooter. They are very close, and so far this year, Sengun has been better.

 

[LeBowen]

A really important thing to add is that for defensively limited bigs like two of them having the right supporting cast makes all the difference.
I don't really rate Sabonis, but having such garbage teams around him did him no favor.
Meanwhile Sengun has an elite defense around him and it's not like he's a major contributor on that end.

Much like when I said that Fox's defense couldn't be judged because he never played with an actual rim protector.
And as it turns out, he's exceeded all expectations on that end and is even matching up with opposition's best players.

 

[Exstatic]

It's an interesting comparison. My initial "no research" reaction is Sengun clears Sabonis as a basketball player right now and and significantly clears in terms of asset value going forward (younger, better already).

After diving in the stats and numbers posted here that conclusion seems a little unfair to Sabonis, I admit. Sabonis having been shopped around for multiple seasons with no takers stains my opinion of him. Anecdotally, he is a "Zollins" level rim protector, Sengun isn't great there either but he is better than Sabonis.

Rebounding does favor Sabonis clearly, but there are layers to that as well. Houston has a ton of great rebounders at every position and has been the best rebounding team overall for several years as a result. Is Sengun getting punished for being surrounded by awesome rebounders? David Robinson's rebounding metrics took a big hit in the Rodman seasons, does that mean he was actually a worse rebounder? I don't think so.

Also, I was of the opinion that Sengun gives Wemby all kinds of problems but after looking back at game logs that apparently isn't the case. He had the huge 45 pt game (against rookie Wemby) where he famously offensive fouled his way to his career high. But other than that, he had 1 other nice game (Oct '23) and a bunch of meh or bad games.

Ringer having Sengun at #14 is certainly interesting, I can't quite get there.

I think the shopping with no takers is more a function of his contract than his production. He did a Vassell, and got his while the getting was good. I wouldn’t categorize it as unmovable, but it’s definitely move unfriendly. Dollar for dollar, I’d definitely want Sengün over Sabo.

While I’m defending Sabo here in this thread, I wouldn’t want him for the same reason I wouldn’t want Lauri, money. At some point, such a player would probably cost you some of your young talent, because you can’t really pay more than two guys big contracts. I love De’Aaron Fox to death, but if both young guards pop, there will be a time we’ll have to move him. It won’t be about productivity, it will be about $$$.

 

[spursistan]

I'm just glad the Giannis buzz has fast died down. Don't need this distraction with the way our team is growing.

The Spurs & Thunder don't need him as both franchises are well set-up for the now, near and long-term future. Rockets have little more urgency but don't seem eager to mess with their current group.

It's going to be NY or Miami. Giannis is big-city hunting and all is doing right now is manipulating the optics of it all.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2000367810212733142

 

[CrustyCoastBendFan]

I'm just glad the Giannis buzz has fast died down. Don't need this distraction with the way our team is growing.

The Spurs & Thunder don't need him as both franchises are well set-up for the now, near and long-term future. Rockets have little more urgency but don't seem eager to mess with their current group.

It's going to be NY or Miami. Giannis is big-city hunting and all is doing right now is manipulating the optics of it all.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2000367810212733142

Someone’s bound to hop back on this Coach Killers bandwagon before long. Spurs message board commentators truly never fail to deliver.

 

[Guru of Nothing]

If I'm Giannis camp, I set my sights on Houston; and if I'm Houston, I'm going to figure how to get Giannis without giving up Sengun or Thompson - Durant's time is now.

 

[CrustyCoastBendFan]

If I'm Giannis camp, I set my sights on Houston; and if I'm Houston, I'm going to figure how to get Giannis without giving up Sengun or Thompson - Durant's time is now.

Id love to see the inevitable locker room showdown between Ime and this clown

I have a feeling it goes the way of the famed Wes Unseld confrontation

 

[Dbreiden83080]

I'm just glad the Giannis buzz has fast died down. Don't need this distraction with the way our team is growing.

The Spurs & Thunder don't need him as both franchises are well set-up for the now, near and long-term future. Rockets have little more urgency but don't seem eager to mess with their current group.

It's going to be NY or Miami. Giannis is big-city hunting and all is doing right now is manipulating the optics of it all.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2000367810212733142

If the Knicks hadn’t blown a ton of picks on a Midling player like Bridges, they could’ve got this done already. One thing about Giannis, who I am a fan of is his body seems to really be breaking down from all his physical play. Even when he plays, he’s always on the injury report. His knee is bad.

 

[Kick-Stand]

I'm just glad the Giannis buzz has fast died down. Don't need this distraction with the way our team is growing.

The Spurs & Thunder don't need him as both franchises are well set-up for the now, near and long-term future. Rockets have little more urgency but don't seem eager to mess with their current group.

It's going to be NY or Miami. Giannis is big-city hunting and all is doing right now is manipulating the optics of it all.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2000367810212733142

I'm guessing Toronto. Knicks don't have any picks and their team is all mid career veterans who are useless to a rebuilding lottery team.

 

[PocketMonger]

I have serious doubts that Brunson and Giannis would gel together as teammates. Both are very ball centric players and Giannis doesn't like setting screens from what I've heard so that would only make matters worse. That said you still have to do the deal if possible with the east so wide open.