Analysis 2025-26 Lineup Combinations (Updated Every 10 Games)

[scott]

This is a thread I had running for several seasons at the old site, I thought I'd bring it back to life here as well. Every 10 games I'll update the 5-man lineup tables, and in between I'll provide some interesting observations on other lineup combos. I know we have a lot of additional analytic eagles on the forum, so hopefully they'll chime in with what they are seeing as well.

THROUGH 10 GAMES (8-2)

Sorted by Minutes Played (For this round) | Min 10 MP

Ref #	Lineup	GP	MP	ORTG	DRTG	NETRTG	AST%	REB%	TS%	PACE
1	Barnes-Vassell-Champ-Wemby-Castle	9	110	115.6	103.9	11.7	64.2	55.4	64.8	102.19
2	Barnes-Fox-Vassell-Wemby-Castle	2	24	105.7	92.6	13.1	71.4	49.1	58.9	105.68
3	Barnes-Keldon-Vassell-Wemby-Castle	5	15	126.7	90.0	36.7	61.5	44.4	61.4	96.64
4	JMac-Keldon-Champ-Wemby-Harper	4	14	112.5	80.6	31.9	81.8	64.7	62.4	111.82
5	Biyombo-Keldon-Vassell-Castle-Harper	4	12	79.2	116.0	-36.8	60.0	42.9	44.1	101.53
6	Barnes-Kornet-Vassell-Champ-Castle	3	12	124.1	77.4	46.7	66.7	40.9	70.0	116.44
7	Barnes-Keldon-Champ-Wemby-Castle	5	11	76.2	114.3	-38.1	85.7	50.0	40.2	92.76
8	Barnes-Champ-Wemby-Castle-Bryant	4	10	76.2	138.9	-62.7	37.5	40.0	48.7	94.39

Notes:

• Don't want to draw too many conclusions on early samples here, so this edition of notes will be short
• There are a couple of opportunities for some direct substitution comparisons early here. Lineup #1 (our original starting 5) and #6 is just a direct swap of Wemby for Korndog... and there isn't any kind of drop off (in fact our NetRtg skyrockets in a limited sample). What matters most for me here is our defense doesn't drop off a cliff. What a welcome sight.
• The other direct sub is #1 v #7, Keldon in for Devin... and, that's no bueno. Keldon has played well though so we're not going to read too much into it.
• Not surprisingl, wherever Bismack and Bryant appear, so does a massive negative NetRtg. Let's hope they fall off this list by the next update.
• The table editor here isn't great... will have to built this in excel next time

 

[scott]

Didn't want to start a new thread for this... but found this elsewhere.

Spurs ranks in various metrics so far this season versus last season:

 

[LeBowen]

FTA and 2nd chance points are the key for momentum in games, hopefully we can stay top5 in those.

 

[Quentin_Compson]

Great stuff! For some of the stats, I think having them "normalized" would be more telling. Like, x amount of 3 PT shots taken/opponent's shots taken is one thing, but having it adjusted for pace/attempt rate would probably make for a more convincing overview. Not really meant as a criticism, @scott, this still gives us a lot of interesting stuff to chew on.

 

[Arguendo]

Awesome thread and info. Very much appreciate.

 

[CGD]

Love this. Can’t wait to see around the 25 game mark.

 

[Arguendo]

Obvi tiny/one quarter sample size, but I'm shocked a lineup with Barnes + Kornet is easily the fastest pace. I would've guess it'd be a Castle + Harp lineup, not the two slowest guys in the rotation.

Also really surprised we're bottom 1/3 in pace, I was very much expecting us to play more uptempo. But the fast breaks are there, so they're either getting out on the break or resetting and being very deliberate in the half-court. That's a good way to play.

 

[scott]

Great stuff! For some of the stats, I think having them "normalized" would be more telling. Like, x amount of 3 PT shots taken/opponent's shots taken is one thing, but having it adjusted for pace/attempt rate would probably make for a more convincing overview. Not really meant as a criticism, @scott, this still gives us a lot of interesting stuff to chew on.

Good call, I might try to build out something like that. These I just found on Reddit, I didn't put them together myself. I might try to build out some advanced measures. Might be a good project for myself and @ambchang to collaborate on.

 

[scott]

Obvi tiny/one quarter sample size, but I'm shocked a lineup with Barnes + Kornet is easily the fastest pace. I would've guess it'd be a Castle + Harp lineup, not the two slowest guys in the rotation.

Yeah, I'm curious to see how that develops. In only 12 minutes of sample size, that could have just been a couple of transition 3s or Steph steal-and-scores that really throw those numbers out of whack.

 

[scott]

21 game update.

Biggest takeaway for me is that our offense is pretty consistent amongst the 3 starting lineups we've used this season (the first 3 lineups). Unsurprisingly, it's defense that amps up with Wemby back... also worth noting though the the few games we had with Fox + Wemby, our DRTG was strong as well.

Can't unsee that one Sochan lineup... lol

What a sight for sore eyes to see most of our lineups are net positive. The last few years you'd have to go hunting to find winning lineups.

 

[LeBowen]

Good work.
Just a suggestion, DRTG colors should be swapped.
Like this it looks like 136.7 DRTG is good. l

 

[Guru of Nothing]

21 game update.

Biggest takeaway for me is that our offense is pretty consistent amongst the 3 starting lineups we've used this season (the first 3 lineups). Unsurprisingly, it's defense that amps up with Wemby back... also worth noting though the the few games we had with Fox + Wemby, our DRTG was strong as well.

Can't unsee that one Sochan lineup... lol

What a sight for sore eyes to see most of our lineups are net positive. The last few years you'd have to go hunting to find winning lineups.

Guilty of speedreading the table. I remarked, well at least the defense is clicking.

 

[scott]

Good work.
Just a suggestion, DRTG colors should be swapped.
Like this it looks like 136.7 DRTG is good. l

You are correct! I just copy and pasted the conditional formatting, so that was an oversight on my part!

 

[STAT88]

Be interesting to see how the advanced stats go for the 3 man lineup of Fox-Castle-Vassell.

So far they’ve played 70 minutes with a net rating of -0.4

databallr | NBA Stats & Analytics

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databallr.com

Seems an awkward fit but appears this is what the Spurs will roll with when everyone is healthy. Needs to improve, can’t afford to be playing the first 6 minutes of every game with a tread water lineup then rely on the bench to give you a lead.

 

[scott]

Be interesting to see how the advanced stats go for the 3 man lineup of Fox-Castle-Vassell.

So far they’ve played 70 minutes with a net rating of -0.4

databallr | NBA Stats & Analytics

Advanced NBA statistics, player analytics, and matchup data for basketball fans and analysts.

databallr.com

Seems an awkward fit but appears this is what the Spurs will roll with when everyone is healthy. Needs to improve, can’t afford to be playing the first 6 minutes of every game with a tread water lineup then rely on the bench to give you a lead.

Personally I'm hoping at some point that Mitch realizes how much sense swapping Champ and Dev makes

 

[scott]

30 Game Update!



Only 4 lineups that have logged more than 48 minutes together and because the last few games have been the first with our full complement of players, the most frequent lineups we saw to start the season haven't been used much since (in the last 9 games, our most frequent lineup has only played an additional 3 minutes together, for example)

Comparing Lineup 3 and 4 is interesting because it's our starting 5 with a direct sub for Wemby for Luke. Lineup 3 isn't bad at all! In fact if the Lineup 3 ratings were our team ratings, the 120.2 ORTG would rank 5th in the NBA, the 113.1 DRTG would rank 8th, and the 7.1 NetRTG would rank 4th.... but take a look at the Wemby effect. Lineup 4 clears the Thunder's league best 106.2 DRTG by almost 6 whole points and obviously +17.5 NetRtg would lead the league.

I added some other interesting, less used positive lineups in the second block. These are rotation units and they are quite lovely.

I threw in our only negative rated lineups. The Biyombo and Sochan lineups don't mean much since neither of those guys are in the rotation anymore. But Lineup 10 and 12 should tell us something. #10 is the dreaded Barnes at C lineup. It's pretty good offensively but the defense and rebounding is unsurprisingly quite offensive. #12 is a big lineup and is nice defensivel... I wouldn't mind seeing it a little more because there is more offensive firepower there than the numbers suggest.

Also, earlier in the year I wanted to swap Dev out of the starting 5 for Champ... but at this point there is no need to. I think both players are adapting to their roles quite nicely.

 

[DaSlicer]

30 Game Update!
View attachment 214
Only 4 lineups that have logged more than 48 minutes together and because the last few games have been the first with our full complement of players, the most frequent lineups we saw to start the season haven't been used much since (in the last 9 games, our most frequent lineup has only played an additional 3 minutes together, for example)
Comparing Lineup 3 and 4 is interesting because it's our starting 5 with a direct sub for Wemby for Luke. Lineup 3 isn't bad at all! In fact if the Lineup 3 ratings were our team ratings, the 120.2 ORTG would rank 5th in the NBA, the 113.1 DRTG would rank 8th, and the 7.1 NetRTG would rank 4th.... but take a look at the Wemby effect. Lineup 4 clears the Thunder's league best 106.2 DRTG by almost 6 whole points and obviously +17.5 NetRtg would lead the league.
I added some other interesting, less used positive lineups in the second block. These are rotation units and they are quite lovely.
I threw in our only negative rated lineups. The Biyombo and Sochan lineups don't mean much since neither of those guys are in the rotation anymore. But Lineup 10 and 12 should tell us something. #10 is the dreaded Barnes at C lineup. It's pretty good offensively but the defense and rebounding is unsurprisingly quite offensive. #12 is a big lineup and is nice defensivel... I wouldn't mind seeing it a little more because there is more offensive firepower there than the numbers suggest.
Also, earlier in the year I wanted to swap Dev out of the starting 5 for Champ... but at this point there is no need to. I think both players are adapting to their roles qui

 

[spurraider21]

the barnes or sochan at center minutes were predictably bad, not much learned there. the only one that stood out in the bad lineups category was the one with Luke, Keldon, and Castle

 

[scott]

One combination I mentioned in the Knicks game thread when Vassell was announced out, and I might be back on this...

Fox/Castle/Champ/Barnes + Wemby or Kornet.





Yes... I know it's only 24 minutes... but 24 minutes of pure heaven.

I do want to make sure proper credit is given to this combo with Champ subbed out for Devin, because it is also very good in a large sample size of 163 minutes



But I do think this reignites a thought I'd had that maybe the lineup flows better with Champ starting in place of Vassell. This is no disrespect intended towards Devin, because he is having a great season, but he's a higher USG% player in a lineup (especially with Wemby in it) that is already full of high usage players.

To that point, the offense is considerably better with this four paired with Luke instead of Wemby, and I think that is because you're swapping out high USG Wemby out for low USG Kornet and Devin is given a little more breathing room. But our defense is predictably a lot better when Wemby is in for Luke.



I also think letting Devin attack bench units could be deadly. To that point, this bench trio of Dylan-Devin-Keldon could be paired with all sorts of players and has been quite productive in 146 minutes of playing time.



Some food for thought. We'll get a heavy dose of Fox-Castle-Champ-Barnes-Luke tomorrow v IND to see how this plays out with more minutes added to the sample.

 

[STAT88]

Good stuff. Agree that Champ fits better than Vassell in the SL. Said that earlier in the season too and said that it’s only Vassell’s contract that gives him the starting SF spot over Champ. Vassell has been very good this year so no complaints there just think Champ fits better in the SL over Devin.

I am shocked that it’s only been 24 minutes all season with the Fox-Castle-Champ-Barnes-Wemby/Korn. Most of that would have been during the Knicks game last night too.

Another really positive development has been the Harper-Wemby minutes.


Now you’ve reminded me about the Vassell to the bench option I had a look at the Harper-Vassell minutes which are very good.


Then the Wemby-Vassell-Harper combo is absolutely insane.


As opposed to the Kornet-Vassell-Harper combo which is bad.


From a purely analytics standpoint, Wemby is better off the bench if you want to get the best of both worlds with elite SL analytics and elite bench analytics. We know in reality you can’t bring your franchise guy off the bench, so it would be nice for Mitch to try and maximise some of these Wemby-Harper minutes by staggering lineups but it’s not always easy to do.

 

[spursfanfromafar]

I agree that Vassell would be a better weapon on the bench. Champs adds rebounds to his work ethic and complements Fox and Wemby better, IMO. Only thing is that the Spurs tend to feature Devin early to both get him going and also as a valve. I guess he has to adjust to a bench role. I like the Harper, Waters, Vassell, Johnson, Kornet second lineup...which could give decent minutes.

 

[scott]

For whatever reason, Databallr isn't updated for yesterday's game... so here is the same data from pbpstats instead.

The foursome of Fox-Castle-Champ-Barnes added another 10 minutes yesterday. Not surprisingly our NetRtg went down because it wasn't really sustainable, but interesting to me is that our DRTG pretty much stayed unbundged.

 

[Fabbs]

For a deluxe hamburger would any of you tell me Victor W's per 36 minutes for December only.

For 3 deluxe hamburgers how close to #1 is Vic in pts rbs blocks.

I have tried. I really have.

 

[scott]

A little late on this update, but here it is at 42 games. Amazingly, after 42 games we don't have a single 5-man lineup that has appeared in more than 13 games. But surprisingly, neither has OKC (their most frequent lineup has only appeared in 12 games). DET and DEN both have lineups that have appeared in 20+ games.



There has been a lot of talk about the Spurs defense with out Wemby, and sure enough our DRTG without him on the court of 116.9 would rank 24th in the league.

However, it's not that simple, as our Luke-in-for-Wemby minutes still post a 113.8 DRTG, which would still be in the top half of the league (13th, to be exact). French Vanilla lineups are still quite effective on defense when deployed strategically.



In "We Miss You Dev" news, here is the impact Devin has had on the offense. I was surprised that our defense is better without him, because he's been pretty good on D this year, but that may coincide with our D just kicking into a completely different level as of late.



Lastly, in Hydra News... lineups with all 3 guards have not been great, and Fox + Harper isn't a positive combo either. Harper alone, however, has proven dynamic on offense.

 

[OK Computer]

A little late on this update, but here it is at 42 games. Amazingly, after 42 games we don't have a single 5-man lineup that has appeared in more than 13 games. But surprisingly, neither has OKC (their most frequent lineup has only appeared in 12 games). DET and DEN both have lineups that have appeared in 20+ games.

View attachment 479

There has been a lot of talk about the Spurs defense with out Wemby, and sure enough our DRTG without him on the court of 116.9 would rank 24th in the league.

However, it's not that simple, as our Luke-in-for-Wemby minutes still post a 113.8 DRTG, which would still be in the top half of the league (13th, to be exact). French Vanilla lineups are still quite effective on defense when deployed strategically.

View attachment 482

In "We Miss You Dev" news, here is the impact Devin has had on the offense. I was surprised that our defense is better without him, because he's been pretty good on D this year, but that may coincide with our D just kicking into a completely different level as of late.

View attachment 483

Lastly, in Hydra News... lineups with all 3 guards have not been great, and Fox + Harper isn't a positive combo either. Harper alone, however, has proven dynamic on offense.

View attachment 484

Since we’re building around Wemby and not Harper, the onus is on Harper to develop into being a better team player and not the FO to figure out how to surround him with players who complement him (like they shouldn’t be thinking to move on from Fox to give Harper that spot, for example), IMO. Harper being good on offense alone should be seen as a negative, or at the very least, gives firepower to the idea that he should remain a bench player and continue to give that lineup a boost until he becomes better.