Analysis 2025-26 Lineup Combinations (Updated Every 10 Games)

[scott]

This is a thread I had running for several seasons at the old site, I thought I'd bring it back to life here as well. Every 10 games I'll update the 5-man lineup tables, and in between I'll provide some interesting observations on other lineup combos. I know we have a lot of additional analytic eagles on the forum, so hopefully they'll chime in with what they are seeing as well.

THROUGH 10 GAMES (8-2)

Sorted by Minutes Played (For this round) | Min 10 MP

Ref #	Lineup	GP	MP	ORTG	DRTG	NETRTG	AST%	REB%	TS%	PACE
1	Barnes-Vassell-Champ-Wemby-Castle	9	110	115.6	103.9	11.7	64.2	55.4	64.8	102.19
2	Barnes-Fox-Vassell-Wemby-Castle	2	24	105.7	92.6	13.1	71.4	49.1	58.9	105.68
3	Barnes-Keldon-Vassell-Wemby-Castle	5	15	126.7	90.0	36.7	61.5	44.4	61.4	96.64
4	JMac-Keldon-Champ-Wemby-Harper	4	14	112.5	80.6	31.9	81.8	64.7	62.4	111.82
5	Biyombo-Keldon-Vassell-Castle-Harper	4	12	79.2	116.0	-36.8	60.0	42.9	44.1	101.53
6	Barnes-Kornet-Vassell-Champ-Castle	3	12	124.1	77.4	46.7	66.7	40.9	70.0	116.44
7	Barnes-Keldon-Champ-Wemby-Castle	5	11	76.2	114.3	-38.1	85.7	50.0	40.2	92.76
8	Barnes-Champ-Wemby-Castle-Bryant	4	10	76.2	138.9	-62.7	37.5	40.0	48.7	94.39

Notes:

• Don't want to draw too many conclusions on early samples here, so this edition of notes will be short
• There are a couple of opportunities for some direct substitution comparisons early here. Lineup #1 (our original starting 5) and #6 is just a direct swap of Wemby for Korndog... and there isn't any kind of drop off (in fact our NetRtg skyrockets in a limited sample). What matters most for me here is our defense doesn't drop off a cliff. What a welcome sight.
• The other direct sub is #1 v #7, Keldon in for Devin... and, that's no bueno. Keldon has played well though so we're not going to read too much into it.
• Not surprisingl, wherever Bismack and Bryant appear, so does a massive negative NetRtg. Let's hope they fall off this list by the next update.
• The table editor here isn't great... will have to built this in excel next time

 

[scott]

Didn't want to start a new thread for this... but found this elsewhere.

Spurs ranks in various metrics so far this season versus last season:

 

[LeBowen]

FTA and 2nd chance points are the key for momentum in games, hopefully we can stay top5 in those.

 

[Quentin_Compson]

Great stuff! For some of the stats, I think having them "normalized" would be more telling. Like, x amount of 3 PT shots taken/opponent's shots taken is one thing, but having it adjusted for pace/attempt rate would probably make for a more convincing overview. Not really meant as a criticism, @scott, this still gives us a lot of interesting stuff to chew on.

 

[Arguendo]

Awesome thread and info. Very much appreciate.

 

[CGD]

Love this. Can’t wait to see around the 25 game mark.

 

[Arguendo]

Obvi tiny/one quarter sample size, but I'm shocked a lineup with Barnes + Kornet is easily the fastest pace. I would've guess it'd be a Castle + Harp lineup, not the two slowest guys in the rotation.

Also really surprised we're bottom 1/3 in pace, I was very much expecting us to play more uptempo. But the fast breaks are there, so they're either getting out on the break or resetting and being very deliberate in the half-court. That's a good way to play.

 

[scott]

Great stuff! For some of the stats, I think having them "normalized" would be more telling. Like, x amount of 3 PT shots taken/opponent's shots taken is one thing, but having it adjusted for pace/attempt rate would probably make for a more convincing overview. Not really meant as a criticism, @scott, this still gives us a lot of interesting stuff to chew on.

Good call, I might try to build out something like that. These I just found on Reddit, I didn't put them together myself. I might try to build out some advanced measures. Might be a good project for myself and @ambchang to collaborate on.

 

[scott]

Obvi tiny/one quarter sample size, but I'm shocked a lineup with Barnes + Kornet is easily the fastest pace. I would've guess it'd be a Castle + Harp lineup, not the two slowest guys in the rotation.

Yeah, I'm curious to see how that develops. In only 12 minutes of sample size, that could have just been a couple of transition 3s or Steph steal-and-scores that really throw those numbers out of whack.

 

[scott]

21 game update.

Biggest takeaway for me is that our offense is pretty consistent amongst the 3 starting lineups we've used this season (the first 3 lineups). Unsurprisingly, it's defense that amps up with Wemby back... also worth noting though the the few games we had with Fox + Wemby, our DRTG was strong as well.

Can't unsee that one Sochan lineup... lol

What a sight for sore eyes to see most of our lineups are net positive. The last few years you'd have to go hunting to find winning lineups.

 

[LeBowen]

Good work.
Just a suggestion, DRTG colors should be swapped.
Like this it looks like 136.7 DRTG is good. l

 

[Guru of Nothing]

21 game update.

Biggest takeaway for me is that our offense is pretty consistent amongst the 3 starting lineups we've used this season (the first 3 lineups). Unsurprisingly, it's defense that amps up with Wemby back... also worth noting though the the few games we had with Fox + Wemby, our DRTG was strong as well.

Can't unsee that one Sochan lineup... lol

What a sight for sore eyes to see most of our lineups are net positive. The last few years you'd have to go hunting to find winning lineups.

Guilty of speedreading the table. I remarked, well at least the defense is clicking.

 

[scott]

Good work.
Just a suggestion, DRTG colors should be swapped.
Like this it looks like 136.7 DRTG is good. l

You are correct! I just copy and pasted the conditional formatting, so that was an oversight on my part!

 

[STAT88]

Be interesting to see how the advanced stats go for the 3 man lineup of Fox-Castle-Vassell.

So far they’ve played 70 minutes with a net rating of -0.4

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Seems an awkward fit but appears this is what the Spurs will roll with when everyone is healthy. Needs to improve, can’t afford to be playing the first 6 minutes of every game with a tread water lineup then rely on the bench to give you a lead.

 

[scott]

Be interesting to see how the advanced stats go for the 3 man lineup of Fox-Castle-Vassell.

So far they’ve played 70 minutes with a net rating of -0.4

databallr | NBA Stats & Analytics

Advanced NBA statistics, player analytics, and matchup data for basketball fans and analysts.

databallr.com

Seems an awkward fit but appears this is what the Spurs will roll with when everyone is healthy. Needs to improve, can’t afford to be playing the first 6 minutes of every game with a tread water lineup then rely on the bench to give you a lead.

Personally I'm hoping at some point that Mitch realizes how much sense swapping Champ and Dev makes