ambchang
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As the playoffs are drawing closer, I thought it's probably time to breakdown the strengths and weaknesses of our potential playoff foes. Mods, if you feel this should go to the "Spurs are a playoff contender" or the "1st round playoff opponent" thread, feel free to merge.
I am going to list all the teams in the top 10 for the West, and a few of the teams that have a legit chance at making the finals from the east. Would love it if you guys can chime in your thoughts.
Team / ORTG (Rank) / DRTG (Rank) / NetRtg (Rank)
SAS / 119.3 (4) / 111.0 (3) / +8.3 (2)
I am going to list all the teams in the top 10 for the West, and a few of the teams that have a legit chance at making the finals from the east. Would love it if you guys can chime in your thoughts.
Team / ORTG (Rank) / DRTG (Rank) / NetRtg (Rank)
SAS / 119.3 (4) / 111.0 (3) / +8.3 (2)
Following up on their historical (2nd best NetRTG ever behind the 72-10 Bulls) last year, the Thunder are at +11.0 this year, which would put them 9th all time. Of the teams who had a double digit NetRTG, only 15-16 Spurs (+11.3, 6th best ever), 15-16 Warriors (+10.7, 11th), 71-72 Bucks (+10.1, 14th) and 08-09 Cavs (+10.0, 15th) failed to win it all. That said, despite the Thunder having such a dominant regular season last year, they were not overly dominant in the playoffs, going 7 games vs. the Nuggets and Pacers, over a number of games with very controversial calls, and of course injury luck.
IMHO, OKC's biggest weakness is their rebounding. Last year, they ranked 16th in DReb% and 21st in OReb%, but their defense was top notch, ranking #1 in defensive eFG% by a margin of +.09 over the #2 Celtics. to put that in perspective, Celtics is about +.1 over #5 Wolves. Also #2 in TOV% by only 0.1% behind the #1 Magic (they are 0.6% over #3 76ers to put this in perspective).
This year, they improved a bit in rebounding and ranked 10th in DReb% but 28th in OReb%. Defensively, they are still #1 in the league, but their margin over #2 Pistons is only by 0.01% and 0.06% over #3 Spurs and #4 Celtics. They are #3 in TOV%, but only 0.3% behind the Pistons. However, they have fouled much less and ranked #3 in FTs allowed per FTA for opponents. From a play style angle, they focus heavily on forcing turnovers and transition baskets, ranking #1 in points off turnovers and outscoring their opponents by 7.6ppg in that department. They also gave up the most % of 3s from the corner, with their opponents shooting a decent 39.7% from there. Guess who loves to shoot from the corner?
Offensively the Thunder went from #3 in ORtg last year to #8 this year. They are also #8 in eFG%, they take care of the ball, ranking #2 in TOV%. They are middle of the pack in 3 pt shooting or scoring inside (but excellent in preventing their opponents in doing so), and is one of the rare teams thrive in the mid-range. They are a preposterous 52.6% from 10-16 feet, and that is a full .42% over #2 Celtics, well, we are the team giving up the most FGAs from 10-16 in the league, undoubtedly because of Wemby. This is the bigger gap than the one between the #2 Celtics and #15 Memphis. They are also heavily reliant on points creation in 2 pointers rather than ball movement (SGA), as they are ranked #29 in 2PFG Assisted in the league.
My personal opinion, we must take care of the ball, crash the offensive boards, and keep SGA out of the mid-range area to help shut them down effectively. On offense, take advantage of their corner 3 defence by using Wemby as the hub in the middle.
IMHO, OKC's biggest weakness is their rebounding. Last year, they ranked 16th in DReb% and 21st in OReb%, but their defense was top notch, ranking #1 in defensive eFG% by a margin of +.09 over the #2 Celtics. to put that in perspective, Celtics is about +.1 over #5 Wolves. Also #2 in TOV% by only 0.1% behind the #1 Magic (they are 0.6% over #3 76ers to put this in perspective).
This year, they improved a bit in rebounding and ranked 10th in DReb% but 28th in OReb%. Defensively, they are still #1 in the league, but their margin over #2 Pistons is only by 0.01% and 0.06% over #3 Spurs and #4 Celtics. They are #3 in TOV%, but only 0.3% behind the Pistons. However, they have fouled much less and ranked #3 in FTs allowed per FTA for opponents. From a play style angle, they focus heavily on forcing turnovers and transition baskets, ranking #1 in points off turnovers and outscoring their opponents by 7.6ppg in that department. They also gave up the most % of 3s from the corner, with their opponents shooting a decent 39.7% from there. Guess who loves to shoot from the corner?
Offensively the Thunder went from #3 in ORtg last year to #8 this year. They are also #8 in eFG%, they take care of the ball, ranking #2 in TOV%. They are middle of the pack in 3 pt shooting or scoring inside (but excellent in preventing their opponents in doing so), and is one of the rare teams thrive in the mid-range. They are a preposterous 52.6% from 10-16 feet, and that is a full .42% over #2 Celtics, well, we are the team giving up the most FGAs from 10-16 in the league, undoubtedly because of Wemby. This is the bigger gap than the one between the #2 Celtics and #15 Memphis. They are also heavily reliant on points creation in 2 pointers rather than ball movement (SGA), as they are ranked #29 in 2PFG Assisted in the league.
My personal opinion, we must take care of the ball, crash the offensive boards, and keep SGA out of the mid-range area to help shut them down effectively. On offense, take advantage of their corner 3 defence by using Wemby as the hub in the middle.
The Lakers are coming on strong the last month or so, going 15-2 in March by outscoring their opponents 120.6 to 111.4. Their offence seems to be back on track, going back to what it was back in November, but their defence has improved every month since December.
On offence, their TS% has improved along with their eFG, but most comically, their FTA just somehow coincided with their record. In October and November, they were 15-4 shooting around 30FTA/G, in March, they went 15-2 shooting 28.1FTA per game, int he middle 3 months, they were 20-20 shooting about 25FTA/G. It is no secret they run a heliocentric offence around Luka, who is leading the league in FGM/A, 3PM/A, FTA,, PPG and USG. But besides Luka, Lebron and Austin Reaves are also heavy iso players who are known to create on offence. They are #2 in eFG%, and #3 in FT/FGA, but are not particularly strong in taking care of the ball or crashing the offensive glass (#28 in 2nd chance points). They are also not particularly good at scoring off TO (#11), running the break (#11) or scoring in the paint (#8). Their shot diet is interesting to say the least, ranking #22 in % of FGA from 3, 25 from 0-3 feet, #11 from 3-10 feet, but #3 from 10-16 and #13 from 10-16. Unlike OKC ,they are not exactly lighting it on fire from 10-16 either, ranking #7 in the league. What makes them truly exception is their FTr, where they are at .321, which is a full .014 over #2 Magic. They somehow ranked #2 in FTA per game, but also #3 in FTA by opponents. They are the only team to be top 5 in both categories and an incredible +5.7 FTA per game, the Mavs sit #2 at +4.2. I believe Miami is #3 at +2.8. Also shockingly, the lakers are dead last in # of 3s assisted at an abysmal .728 (2nd last Clippers is at .783) and a ho-hum #10 in assisted 2s.
On defense, the hot streak in March also coincided with their opponents going ice cold during that time, shooting 31.1%, but I am not sure if it's good defence or just luck as their opponents does shoot 35.2% from 3, which is still excellent and would rank them #6 in 3P defense. That said, their interior defence is awful, with opponents shooting 76.3% from 0-3 (worst in the league and 47.5% from 3-10 (9th worst). They are poor in opponent eFG% (24th), but are OK in forcing TOs (11th) and defensive rebounding (9th), while not fouling (8th).
Overall the Lakers still have issues on defence, I am not sure how real their 3 pt defence is during March. Allowing teams to shoot only 31.1% from 3 would be the best since 2003-04 Pistons and Raptors. Nobody since has allowed less than 32% 3P shooting. With the Lakers, it's no secret that if you stop Luka, you stop them, problem is that he is a generational offensive player. They are #2 in the league in eFG% and #1 in FG%, a big part of what drives that is they have 3 creators, where as players like Ayton, Rui and LaRavia can just focus on finishing. With Wemby manning the middle, Castle, and Harper as the on ball defenders, I am pretty confident the Spurs can match up with them.
On offence, their TS% has improved along with their eFG, but most comically, their FTA just somehow coincided with their record. In October and November, they were 15-4 shooting around 30FTA/G, in March, they went 15-2 shooting 28.1FTA per game, int he middle 3 months, they were 20-20 shooting about 25FTA/G. It is no secret they run a heliocentric offence around Luka, who is leading the league in FGM/A, 3PM/A, FTA,, PPG and USG. But besides Luka, Lebron and Austin Reaves are also heavy iso players who are known to create on offence. They are #2 in eFG%, and #3 in FT/FGA, but are not particularly strong in taking care of the ball or crashing the offensive glass (#28 in 2nd chance points). They are also not particularly good at scoring off TO (#11), running the break (#11) or scoring in the paint (#8). Their shot diet is interesting to say the least, ranking #22 in % of FGA from 3, 25 from 0-3 feet, #11 from 3-10 feet, but #3 from 10-16 and #13 from 10-16. Unlike OKC ,they are not exactly lighting it on fire from 10-16 either, ranking #7 in the league. What makes them truly exception is their FTr, where they are at .321, which is a full .014 over #2 Magic. They somehow ranked #2 in FTA per game, but also #3 in FTA by opponents. They are the only team to be top 5 in both categories and an incredible +5.7 FTA per game, the Mavs sit #2 at +4.2. I believe Miami is #3 at +2.8. Also shockingly, the lakers are dead last in # of 3s assisted at an abysmal .728 (2nd last Clippers is at .783) and a ho-hum #10 in assisted 2s.
On defense, the hot streak in March also coincided with their opponents going ice cold during that time, shooting 31.1%, but I am not sure if it's good defence or just luck as their opponents does shoot 35.2% from 3, which is still excellent and would rank them #6 in 3P defense. That said, their interior defence is awful, with opponents shooting 76.3% from 0-3 (worst in the league and 47.5% from 3-10 (9th worst). They are poor in opponent eFG% (24th), but are OK in forcing TOs (11th) and defensive rebounding (9th), while not fouling (8th).
Overall the Lakers still have issues on defence, I am not sure how real their 3 pt defence is during March. Allowing teams to shoot only 31.1% from 3 would be the best since 2003-04 Pistons and Raptors. Nobody since has allowed less than 32% 3P shooting. With the Lakers, it's no secret that if you stop Luka, you stop them, problem is that he is a generational offensive player. They are #2 in the league in eFG% and #1 in FG%, a big part of what drives that is they have 3 creators, where as players like Ayton, Rui and LaRavia can just focus on finishing. With Wemby manning the middle, Castle, and Harper as the on ball defenders, I am pretty confident the Spurs can match up with them.
I have to admit I haven't watched too many Nuggets games this season, but I do know they are a phenomenal offensive team due to Jokic and their eFG%, ranked #1 in the NBA, backs it up. They take care of the ball (4th in TOV%), and gets to the line at a good rate (#4 in FT/FGA and FTr). I was shocked to find out that they don't shoot much from 0-3 (21st in the league), and is just middle of the pack everywhere else. Essentially, they shoot from everywhere, but are #1 in 3P% and really good from 3-10 and 10-16. While they are #4 in assisted 2P, I am shocked to find out they are only #21 in asst'd 3s. They are the worst in the league in points off TOs, and 21st in 2nd chance points.
Defensively they are not that good. They are middle of the pack in defensive eFG% and defensive FT/FGA, last in forced TOV%, but rebounds decently well. They don't give up a particular zone too much, but they are 5th worse in DFG% from 0-3, 3rd worst from 3-10. They are, however, 3rd best in the league in defending the 3 (surprising given Murray). They are 2nd worst in giving up corner 3s but 5th best at defending it by %). They are also the bottom half of the league in defending the fast break and paint defense.
For the Spurs, if we can take care of the defensive boards then head out on fast breaks off them, we can probably pick up a few easy points along with way. Wemby also has to focus on scoring in the paint rather than drift outside for lazy 3s, and Castle, Harper and Keldon have to attack the basket relentlessly.
Defensively they are not that good. They are middle of the pack in defensive eFG% and defensive FT/FGA, last in forced TOV%, but rebounds decently well. They don't give up a particular zone too much, but they are 5th worse in DFG% from 0-3, 3rd worst from 3-10. They are, however, 3rd best in the league in defending the 3 (surprising given Murray). They are 2nd worst in giving up corner 3s but 5th best at defending it by %). They are also the bottom half of the league in defending the fast break and paint defense.
For the Spurs, if we can take care of the defensive boards then head out on fast breaks off them, we can probably pick up a few easy points along with way. Wemby also has to focus on scoring in the paint rather than drift outside for lazy 3s, and Castle, Harper and Keldon have to attack the basket relentlessly.
Rockets - To be filled out
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